A project highlight: hosting our 2nd User Board meeting (photo above).
M A R 2 0 1 9 | I S S U E 2 P A G E 2
What is the Clim2Power Project? A JPI Climate-funded international research project
The Clim2Power project is a research project aiming to
“climate-proof” the current European electricity system,
including operation and planning, to ensure that energy
and power models respond to climate variability.
Clim2Power aims to build a bridge between complex
scientific model-based knowledge and targeted, usable
information for end users within climate, environment,
energy and water communities by delivering a tailored
Climate Service (CS) web-application co-developed with
final users.
Two levels of CS are produced: i)
operational information mainly targeted
for power companies, namely seasonal
weather decision-support information on
the optimal operation of hydro, wind and
solar power plants and on the implications
of operational schedules on the whole
power system for the next season; ii)
investment decision information, mainly
for policy makers with a focus on long-
term analysis.
The project makes use of seasonal climate
forecasts from the German Climate
Forecast System (GCFS), which are
updated monthly and downscaled to 6km
(complemented with reanalysis for 1995-
2015). The long-term climate projections
are from EUROCORDEX for six climate
models and two scenarios (RCP4.5 & 8.5)
with a spatial resolution of 12.5km. This
climate data is then translated to
timeseries of maximum capacity factors for
RES electricity from hydro, wind power,
and solar PV using different approaches.
All components are then to be integrated
into a web service application, to be
appropriated by industry and
policymakers in decision-making.
Follow along with us on Twitter using the handle @Clim2Power, or visit our website at www.clim2power.com.
M A R 2 0 1 9 | I S S U E 2 P A G E 3
Addressing User Requirements for the Clim2Power Climate Service
What are our end-users looking for in a climate service?
Work Package 1 has come to an end after gathering a host of
valuable data on end-user requirements. A successful survey of
desired characteristics of the Clim2Power Climate Service (C2PCS)
resulted in 173 replies. Partners from University College Cork
developed a Final User Requirements Report synthesising the data
gathered from end-users at European and national user board
meetings and from the online survey. A suite of 13
recommendations for the development of the C2PCS were
provided based on a framework of credibility, salience, and
legitimacy.
To ensure that user needs continue to be addressed throughout the
development of the C2PCS, a Usability Evaluation Framework has
also been developed to monitor stakeholder feedback and the
project’s responses. This framework is to be used for tracking the
interests and needs of end-users from both European and national
User Board meetings.
Want to Learn More?
Clim2Power has made a number of deliverables and presentations available online for the public, including presentations from our recent User Board and Advisory Board meetings in Brussels. You’ll also find our brochure and poster. Take a look under the “Outputs” section of our website.
c l i m 2 p o w e r . c o m
Building Connections Clim2Power has been active in growing relationships with members of other projects, including other ERA4CS-funded project constortiums. In early March, the APPLICATE Project ("A collaborative approach to adapt to a changing Arctic") reached out to us for Arctic impacts on energy production in Europe. Additionally, we were fortunate to have project coordinators and partners of the SECLI-FIRM, and S2S4E projects join us for our recent Advisory Board meeting.
Within Clim2Power DWD aims to provide seasonal forecasts tailored to the needs of the hydrologists and energy system modellers in the project. DWD can make use of own seasonal forecasts (GCFS2), a highly resolved European reanalysis (COSMO-REA6) and aims to develop a downscaling method. Those two data sets will be combined within the downscaling method, in order to produce high-resolution seasonal predictions suitable for hydrological modelling. So far, seasonal forecasts were made available for the whole consortium by a remapping procedure for two seasons (winter 2018/2019 and spring 2019). This serves as a first and intermediate step towards the downscaled approach. For long-term climate projections, six combinations of global and regional models were selected, and two different RCP scenarios are considered within the projections.
Above: Probability of the upper tercile for temperature.
Seasonal forecast started in March 2019, available at
Conferences and Events Attended by the Clim2Power project
Clim2Power partners are regularly on the move,
attending numerous conferences and events
throughout the year. If you see us at one of the events
to the right, don’t hesitate to reach out and connect
with us!
• EGU 2019 European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly 2019, 7-12 April
• ICEE 2019 4th International Conference on Energy & Environment, 16-17 May
• ECCA 2019 European Climate Change Adaptation Conference, 28-31 May
• ICEM2019 6th International Conference on Energy & Meteorology, 24-27 June
UPCOMING
• SECLI-FIRM Stakeholder Workshop 17 January 2019
•
PAST
CLIMATE DATA UPDATES FROM PARTNERS AT DWD
Power System Modelling: First Results for the EU
M A R 2 0 1 9 | I S S U E 2 P A G E 5
The model they have developed at
BOKU's Institute of Hydrology and Water
Management, COSERO, is a continuous,
semi-distributed, conceptual rainfall-
runoff model. Seasonal forecasts
generated by partners at DWD are fed
into COSERO, which produces discharge
data. With the help of historical datasets,
monthly hydropower production is then
estimated.
First seasonal forecast for hydropower production in the Austria-Germany power market
Clim2Power partners at BOKU, the University of Natural
Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, have been working to
translate seasonal forecasts into predictions of hydropower
production. Machine learning approaches have been
developed for the European hydropower maximum
capacity factors.
Preliminary results for 2050 have been
calculated, including the generated electricity
portfolio for the whole of Europe from 2016 to
2050, obtained from the eTIMES-EU energy
system model for three different carbon-
mitigation targets: TAX35 (a tax of €35/tCO2),
INIT_TGT90 (90% reduction from 1990 values),
and INIT_NEUTR (carbon neutrality). As
mitigation continues, the electricity generated
from wind and solar also increases as expected.
These results consider “average” hydro, wind,
and solar capacity factors, following historic
trends, but we also have results for future
climate scenarios.
Above: Generated electricity in Europe from eTIMES-EU
from 2016 till 2050.
Below: (a) historical data of hydropower production (HPP) and historical runoff observations show good correlation. (b) Share of run-of-river and storage HPP production in Austria 2016 – 2018.
M A R 2 0 1 9 | I S S U E 2 P A G E 6
2019 European User & Advisory Board Meetings
The Clim2Power project consortium met on 12 February, 2019
to host the project’s second User Board Meeting and first
Advisory Board Meeting in Brussels, Belgium. The User Board
meeting was designed to gain valuable feedback on the
development of the Clim2Power climate web service (C2PCS)
from User Board members, who represent potential end-users
for the C2PCS. Representatives from the European Environment
Agency (EEA), Eurelectric, World Energy & Meteorology Council
(WEMC), DG Energy, the Barcelona Supercomputing Centre
(BSC), and Vrije Universiteit Brussel were in attendance. The 2nd
User Board Meeting focused primarily on the project’s first
results and included a look at the first prototype for the C2PCS.
To facilitate constructive feedback and recommendations for the
C2PCS, breakout sessions were organised to address pertinent
issues and shape future developments in the web service. Based
on the input of the User Board, the Clim2Power consortium will
work to explore, test, and incorporate these suggestions,
including the scope of end-user engagement and how to express
uncertainty in climate and energy models. The European User
Board will be consulted once more in the third and final User
Board meeting, to be held in Month 30 of the project.
The Advisory Board’s focus was on soliciting input from experts
in their field on climatology and modelling approaches, as well
as the climate service prototype. The board made several
recommendations regarding open-source models and data,
developing a common validation strategy, and flexibility in
interactive graphs for the web service.
12 – 13 February, 2019 | Brussels, Belgium
Project Pipeline
We recently updated our Project Pipeline graphic to show how our process works. Climate data is used in our models to generate data for the end product, a web-based climate service for the energy sector.
M A R 2 0 1 9 | I S S U E 2 P A G E 7
What’s Ahead? Clim2Power has a lot planned for the next six months. We’ll be conducting our next round of national user board meetings in partner countries to solicit feedback on the prototype climate service, which we’ll monitor via our Usability Evaluation Framework. Over time we’ll be building the suggestions we receive into the climate service to develop it beyond the initial prototype stage. By refining our energy/power systems models that respond to climate variability, we’ll be better able to populate our climate service with indicators to support decision making and management of energy acquisition and storage. Stay tuned for a public peek at the climate service in the months to come!
We’ll also be processing the seasonal forecasts and running the eTIMES-EU model with all long-term climate projections. Another challenge ahead will be assessing and communicating uncertainty for the climate service.
Follow us at www.clim2power.com as we post news, and on our Twitter: @clim2power.
