Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

The Five Biggest Stories

in Emerging MarketsPaul Goodwin

Chief Analyst, Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report

Paul@cabot.net @ChinaHandPaul

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

China: Anti-corruption

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

China: Anti-corruption• Xi Jinping actually means it this time!

• Tigers and Fleas

• Zhou Yongkang, former Politburo member and security czar

• PLA officer (and former Politburo member)

• “Naked officials” and the man with the Rolex

• Golf and Cognac

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

China Retail!

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

China Retail!

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

China Retail!:

Vipshop (VIPS)

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

China Retail!:

BitAuto (BITA)

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

China Retail! • 58.com (WUBA)

• Jumei (JMEI)

• E-Commerce China Dangdang (DANG)

• LightintheBox Holding (LITB)

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

India: Gridlock and Progress

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

India: Gridlock and Progress

•New government led by Narendra Modi

•Leader of Bharatiya Janata Party

•Has an absolute majority in Indian Parliament

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

Russia: Sanctions

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

Russia: Sanctions

•Putin strangling freedom

•Takeover of Crimea

•Continuing conflict in Ukraine

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Argentina: Default

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Argentina: Default

•Great Argentine Depression 1998–2002

•Restructuring in 2005 and 2010

• IMF loans repaid by 2006

•93% of bonds out of default by 2010

•Vulture funds

Cabot Investors Conference 2014 www.cabot.net

Investment rules

•SNaC Approach: Story, Numbers and Chart

•Cabot China-Timer