Cal y Mayor y Asociados, S.C. Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study 22-24 October...

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Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit

Demand StudyDemand Study

22-24 October 2003

17th International EMME/2 UGM

Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Sergio A. Lugo Serrato

2

Atizapan – El Rosario Light Rail Transit Demand Study

Corridor CharacteristicsCorridor Characteristics

• LRT Line Length: 12 km

• Population in Corridor: 815,000

• Existing Transit Routes in Corridor: 50+

• Corridor Transit Demand: 392,000 daily passengers

T L A L P A N

M IL P A A L T A

A M E C A M E C A

T L A L M A N A L C O

C H A L C O

IX T A P A L U C A

T E X C O C O

T E P E T L A O X T O C

O T U M B AT E O T IH U A C A N

S . M . D E L A S P IR A M ID E S

E C A T E P E C

G . A . M .

C U A U H .

M . H .

N A U C A L P A N

H U IX Q U IL U C A N

N I C O L AS R O M E R O

T E P O T Z O T L A N

H U E H U E T O C A

Z U M P A N G O

C O Y O T E P E C

N E X T L A L P A N

T E C A M A C

X O C H IM IL C OM . C O N T R E R A S

A . O .

C U A J IM A L P A

B . J .

IZ T A P A L A P A

T L A H U A C

V . D E C H A L C O S .

P A Z L A

C H IM A L H U A C A N

A T E N C O

T L AL N E P AN T L AAT I Z AP AN

C U A U T IT L A N I .

T U L T IT L A N

C O A C A L C OT U L T E P E C

V . C .

C O Y O A C A N

N E Z A H .

A C O L M A N

IZ T A C .

A Z C A P O T .

T E O L O Y U C A N

CORREDOR AT IZ APAN-ROSARIO

C H IA U T L A

M E L C H O R O C A M P O

T U L T IT L A NC U A U T IT L A N

0 10 20 30

K ilometers

Corridor AnalysisTransit in Mexico CityIntroduction LRT Demand Conclusions

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TE P OTZOTLAN

A T I Z A P A N

C U A U TITLA N I.

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T L A L N E P A N T L A

TU LTITLA N

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N A U C A LPA N

N I C O L A S R O M E R O

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IGNACIO

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0 3 6 9

Kilometers

DE

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SAN ISIDRO TECP

CHALMA LA VILLA

G. A . MA D ER O

NICOLAS ROMERO

VA

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BARRIENTOS LAGO

VIA JOSE LOPEZ

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INDEPENDENCIA

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3


Study OverviewStudy Overview

Objectives• Estimate data to determine sizing and route

of LRT

• Estimate social benefits and fee income

Methodology

Results• Transit Corridor Analysis

• Demand Characterization

• LRT Demand

• Social benefits estimation

• Revenue estimation

Demand Analysis

Supply

Primary Information

Secondary Information

Demand

VOT: Mode Selection Model

CorridorAnalysis

RidershipEstimation

Social Benefits Estimation


4


Mexico City OverviewMexico City Overview

Population• 20 Million

• Annual Growth Rate 1.6%

Registered Vehicles• 3.9 Million

• 4% are transit vehicles

Trips• 29 Million daily

• 5.5 Million in 2hr peak period

• 81.7% use transit

NICOLAS ROMERO

ECATEPEC

NAUCALPAN

HUIXQUILUCAN

ATENCO

CUAUTITLAN IZCALLI

GUSTAVO A. MADERO

ATIZAPAN

TLALNEPANTLA

NEZAHUALCOYOTL

TULTITLAN

CHIMALHUACAN

MIGUEL HIDALGO

COACALCO

VENUSTIANO CARRANZA

AZCAPOTZALCO

CUAUHTEMOC

BENITO JUAREZ

IZTACALCO

TEZOYUCA

0 2 4 6

K ilometers

Map KeyMetro L ine 1

Metro L ine 2

Metro L ine 3

Metro L ine 4

Metro L ine 5

Metro L ine 6

Metro L ine 7

Metro L ine 8

Metro L ine 9

Metro L ine A

Metro L ine B

Atizapan - El Rosario LR T


5


Transit in Mexico CityTransit in Mexico City

Mode Share• 58% Low capacity transit

• 18% Private transportation

• 14% Metro (subway) and LRT

• 7% Buses

• 3% Suburban

Metro Statistics• 4.2 Million daily passengers

• 175 Stations, 11 Lines

• 3 Lines account for 65% of all passengers


6


Corridor CharacteristicsCorridor Characteristics

Population• 815,000 inhabitants

in direct LRT access area

• Nicolas Romero and Atizapán are low – medium income residential areas.

• Annual growth rates are between 0.50 and 2.80%.

Employment• 125,000

employments in direct LRT access area

• Tlalnepantla is one of the most industrial areas in MCMA

M A P K E Y

Zones, Project Area

Municipalities

Project Area

Metro Stations

Main highways

LRT Route


7


Population and Employment DensityPopulation and Employment Density

M A P K E Y

Population/km2

0 to 2,500 2,501 to 5,000 5,001 to 10,00010,001 to 15,000 15,001 to 20,00020,001 to 30,00030,001 to 60,000No data

inhabitants

Population

M A P K E Y

Employments/km2

0 a 100 101 a 200 201 a 400 401 a 600 601 a 1,000 1,001 a 5,000 5,000 a 10,000 10,001 a 15,000 W/o data

Inhabitants

Employment


8


..Corridor Traffic CharacteristicsCorridor Traffic Characteristics

Private Transportation• Only one main road

gives access to corridor

• Blvd. Lopez Mateos has 3 lanes each direction, while feeder roads are one lane each direction

• 30,000 vehicles use corridor daily

• 50% are transit vehicles

NICOLAS ROMERO

ECATEPEC

NAUCALPAN

JILOTZINGO

GUSTAVO A. MADERO

ATIZAPAN

TLALNEPANTLA

TULTITLAN

MIGUEL HIDALGO

COACALCO

VENUSTIANO CARRANZA

AZCAPOTZALCO

CUAUHTEMOC0 2 4 6

K ilometers

Map KeyMetro L ine 1Metro L ine 2Metro L ine 3Metro L ine 4Metro L ine 5Metro L ine 6Metro L ine 7Metro L ine 8Metro L ine 9Metro L ine AMetro L ine BTren L igero


9


Corridor Transit CharacteristicsCorridor Transit Characteristics

Transit Vehicles• Peak periods are identified at 7-8 AM and 7-8 PM with (AM 1,385 transit vehicles; PM 1,260

vehicles)

• 39% of these are microbuses (24 seated, 16 standing capacity)

• 32% Buses (40 seating, 40 standing)

• 29% Combis/Vans (12 seated, no standing)

39.6%

31.8%

28.6%

Combi/Van Autobuses Microbuses

Transit Vehicle Survey

664

1,385

1,048

1,2571,184

613

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Hour

Veh

icle

s

Alamedas


10


Corridor Transit CharacteristicsCorridor Transit Characteristics

Transit Observed Demand• Demand peak periods are identified between 7-9 AM and 7-8 PM

• 62% of these trips are HB work related, 27% are shopping or school related, and 11% are non-HB work related

• 58% of these passengers have a low income, 38% average and, 4% high

• Most of the day, demand is below capacity offered by transit operators

Pax vs. Available Seats (Atiz - DF)

16,312

5,068

8,424

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

06: 07: 08: 09: 10: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 20: 21:

Hour

Pax Seats

Pax vs. Available Seats (DF - Atiz)

8,369

6,109

19,650

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

06: 07: 08: 09: 10: 11: 12: 13: 14: 15: 16: 17: 18: 19: 20: 21:

Hour

Pax Seats


11


OD Trip DistributionOD Trip Distribution

Trip Patterns• Most the trips in the

morning exit the project area for jobs in Mexico City, PM passengers return home at night

Major Generation Points• Progreso

• San Pedro

• Atizapán

Major Attraction Points• Tlalnepantla

• Satelite

• Naucalpan

• AtizapánTrip Generation

Trip Attraction


12


Stated Preference SurveyStated Preference Survey

Utility Function Parameters• IVTT in minutes on board a bus, microbus or combi/van

• IVTT in minutes on board new LRT

• IVTT in minutes on board Metro (subway) system

• Fare in pesos from true OD

• Boardings number of boardings made from O-D

Findings• Passengers value more time on bus than in Metro

• LRT is seen as a better mode than bus and Metro

• All demand segments are very sensible to the number of boardings made during their trip

• These functions were used in a transit mode choice logit model

U = A (tbus) + B (tLRT) + C (tmetro) + D (fare) + E(boardings)


13


LRT ridership (Route Ixtacala)LRT ridership (Route Ixtacala)

No Integration Scenario• 12,660 pax/hour

• 161,000 pax/day

• US$0.50 fee

• Existing routes competing with new LRT

Total Integration Scenario

• 26,580 pax/hour

• 356,200 pax/day

• US$0.50 fee

• No existing routes competing with new LRT


14


LRT ridership (Route Juarez)LRT ridership (Route Juarez)

No Integration Scenario• 13,960 pax/hour

• 178,000 pax/day

• US$0.50 fee

• Existing routes competing with new LRT

Total Integration Scenario

• 30,417 pax/hour

• 392,800 pax/day

• US$0.50 fee

• No existing routes competing with new LRT

• 10% increase from other route


15


LRT boarding and alightingLRT boarding and alighting

Findings• Most of the LRT are part of longer trip.

• Initial boardings are made at Progreso and San Pedro, XX miles away from initial LRT Station.

• Alightings are made at Tlalnepantla, either for jobs there or for connections with other transit routes.


16


Sensitivity Analysis and Time SavingsSensitivity Analysis and Time Savings

Sensitivity Analysis• Fare of US$0.50 maximizes revenue for LRT

operator.

• Price Elasticity of Demand is 0.85 at a fare of US$0.50.

Time Savings• Time savings for the no-integration scenario

are 8,311 man-hours during the AM peak hour.

• These savings represent US$ 16.5 Million a year.

• For the total integration scenario, savings sum up to US$ 29.9 Million a year.

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

2 5 7 10Fee (pesos)

Dai

ly P

ax(t

hous

ands

)

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

Daily R

evenue(thousands of pesos)

Ridership Revenue


17


Demand ForecastDemand Forecast

Forecast• 2 scenarios were

developed, population growth rates and population growth rates plus increase in VOT.

• From 177,000 daily passengers estimated for 2002, in 2013 are expected 201,000 and in 2028 230,000.

184,249

195,131

205,373

215,070

186,552

202,448

218,209

233,889229,573

224,295

257,421

177,366

249,529

170,000

180,000

190,000

200,000

210,000

220,000

230,000

240,000

250,000

260,000

1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028

Year

Dai

ly P

ax

Population Growth Population Growth + VOT


18


ConclusionsConclusions

Existing Conditions• Frequencies offered by transit operators exceed demand requirements,

causing delays to other traffic that share corridor.

• Existing transit demand for the corridor equals 392,000 daily passengers.

• Lack of route structure and organization increases congestion and travel time unreliability.

LRT Results• Estimated ridership for new LRT is 177,000 daily passengers (45% of total

potential demand).

• If transit route integration is achieved, demand would increase 353,000.

• Expected annual revenue for the no-integration is US$ 30 Million.

Project Status• Project is on funding stage


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