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Research & Forecast Report CALGARY DOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET Q4 2015
Research & Forecast Report
CALGARYDOWNTOWN OFFICE MARKET Q4 2015
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Calgary / Downtown | Colliers International1
Calgary Market Overview
The economic woes faced by the energy industry in 2015 have been well documented, as have the impact these changes have had on the Calgary and Alberta economies. The decline in energy commodity prices has resulted in substantial layoffs in the sector and a corresponding steep increase in the downtown vacancy rate. In addition, significant cuts to capital spending, the uncertainty surrounding regulatory and government change, and the continuing issues with access to foreign markets have all contributed to one of the most challenging economic environments experienced in this city. As expected, these new realities have had a profound impact on the occupiers of office space in downtown Calgary and will increasingly have negative implications for owners of office buildings in this market. Leasing activity was very limited in 2015 which created a very competitive environment for landlords. Accordingly, there has been a significant drop in rental rates and increased tenant inducements in all classes of office space.
SUPPLY & DEMAND
2015 will be remembered for the massive contraction in occupied space in the downtown office market. The year ended with more than 2.74 million sq. ft. of negative absorption. This record level of contraction eclipsed the previous low water mark set in 2013 by more than one million sq. ft. The overall vacancy rate in the downtown office
market soared to 18.11% by year end, up from 13.93% the previous quarter and 8.52% at the end of 2014, a dramatic shift from a balanced market to a market clearly favouring tenants.
Total vacancy in the Class AA market continued to rise throughout 2015 ending the year at 12.99%, up from 9.87% at the end of the previous quarter and more than doubling from the 6.1% posted at the end of 2014. Close to 1.4 million sq. ft. of new office space was added to the Class AA market this past quarter with the inclusion of Calgary City Centre (811,046 sq. ft.) and Eau Claire Tower (578,677 sq. ft.), of which only 160,000 sq. ft. remains vacant on a head lease basis, however it is not yet known as to how much of this space will come back to the market in the form of sublease availability in 2016.
* Transactions Colliers was involved in.
Breakdown of Downtown Calgary Office Vacancy By Class HEADLEASE & SUBLEASE COMPARISON
BUILDING CLASS TOTAL INVENTORY HEADLEASE AVAILABILITY SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY TOTAL AVAILABILITY
Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q3 2015 % Q4 2015 %
AA 14,275,125 15,664,848 283,659 514,361 1,124,607 1,521,127 1,408,266 9.87% 2,035,488 12.99%
A 13,293,328 13,293,328 831,059 1,086,946 818,145 1,020,528 1,649,204 12.41% 2,107,474 15.85%
B 8,653,227 8,653,227 950,656 1,799,718 926,765 703,974 1,877,421 21.70% 2,503,692 28.93%
C 4,225,800 4,225,800 531,862 772,259 167,681 158,864 699,543 16.55% 931,123 22.03%
Total 40,447,480 41,837,203 2,597,236 4,173,284 3,037,198 3,404,493 5,634,434 13.93% 7,577,777 18.11%
Q3 2015 Absorption: -557,243 Sq. Ft. Source: Colliers Research Q4 2015
NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS
TENANT BUILDING ADDRESS APPROX. SIZE (SF)
1. TransCanada Corporation
TransCanada Tower 450 - 1st Street SW 610,000
*2. Birchcliff Energy Ltd. Eau Claire Tower 620 - 3rd Avenue SW 81,000
*3. World Health Club Calgary Place I 330 - 5th Avenue SW 24,000
4. Shea Nerland Calnan LLP
First Canadian Centre 350 - 7th Avenue SW 25,000
5. Ikkuma Resources Corp. Fifth & Fifth 605 - 5th Avenue SW 15,000
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Calgary / Downtown | Colliers International2
Vacancy in the Class A market increased by 7% over the previous year to 15.85% at the end of 2015. Occupied Class A space contracted by 458,300 sq. ft. in the fourth quarter, resulting in close to one million sq. ft. of negative absorption for the year. The Class B market experienced the most dramatic shift as it saw negative absorption of 626,300 sq. ft. in the fourth quarter and a total of 1,611,500 sq. ft. of negative absorption in 2015. This resulted in the Class B vacancy rate skyrocketing from 10.3% at the end of 2014 to a remarkable 28.93% by the end of 2015. Similarly, the Class C market saw its vacancy rate climb to 22.03% from 12.0% over the year as another 231,600 sq. ft. of vacancy was added to the market in the fourth quarter, bringing its year-over-year absorption to negative 422,500 sq. ft.
Summary Statistics Q4 2015 Downtown Office Market 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 Trend
Office Inventory 40,447,480 41,837,203
Net Absorption (475,554) (557,243)
Vacancy Rate 13.93% 18.11%
Average Asking Net Rent(‘A’ Class Buildings) $23.00 $20.00
Average Additional Rent(‘A’ Class Buildings) $21.83 $21.12
TOTA
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Class ‘A’ Rental Rates ($) Vacancy Rate (%)Total Vacant SpaceLEGEND:
Calgary Downtown O�ce Market Overall Vacancy Rate and Impact on Class “A” Quoted Rental Rates
$40.00
$38.00 $38.00
$39.00
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
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3.68%4.35%
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12.75%
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13.93%
18.11%
$ 0
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Downtown Headlease and Sublease Vacancy 2008 - 2015
Q4/15
Q3/15
Q2/15
Q1/15
Q4/14
Q3/14
Q2/14
Q1/14
Q4/13
Q3/13
Q2/13
Q1/13
Q4/12
Q3/12
Q2/12
Q1/12
Q4/11
Q3/11
Q2/11
Q1/11
Q4/10
Q3/10
Q2/10
Q1/10
Q4/09
Q3/09
Q2/09
Q1/09
Q4/08
Q3/08
Q2/08
Q1/08
0
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
500,000
5,000,000
Squa
re F
eet
Sublease Vacancy Headlease Vacancy
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Calgary / Downtown | Colliers International3
SUBLEASE / HEADLEASE BREAKDOWN
The amount of sublease space available in the downtown office market continued to increase with the addition of 370,000 sq. ft. of space since the third quarter of 2015. This trend began in the fourth quarter of 2014 and continued throughout the year resulting in over 2.1 million sq. ft. of additional sublease space entering the market by year’s end. The expectation is that this trend will continue but not to the same degree as was seen in 2015. As previously mentioned, the space committed to by tenants moving into Calgary City Centre and Eau Claire Tower may exceed the amount of space that is actually required by these tenants. Given the low or no growth environment we are currently experiencing, we expect at least some of this space to come to market in the coming months in the form of sublease space. It is clear that sublease space will continue to have a profound impact on the Calgary office market for some time to come.
Overall, the amount of head lease space available in the downtown office market spiked by approximately 1.5 million sq. ft. in the last quarter of 2015 and 2.05 million sq. ft. over the course of the year. While the headlease availability increases in the Class AA and A markets were due primarily to the addition of two new towers and the pending relocation of the remaining 308,000 sq. ft. of Imperial Oil space to the suburbs, respectively, the Class B market saw an increase of 750,000 sq. ft. of available headlease space over the last quarter alone. The coming two years will be relatively active with lease rollovers so we anticipate that tenant’s “right-sizing” their space will continue, albeit through giving space back to the landlords in exchange for term extension on the space they intend to continue using. Indications are that landlords increasingly recognize the challenges being faced by their tenants and they will be responsive to them by seeking and providing solutions that work for both parties.
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Calgary / Downtown | Colliers International4
LOOKING FORWARD
Total occupancy costs will increasingly be a focus of tenants in this market going forward. While discounts on net lease rates abound through the sublease market, we are seeing landlords becoming increasingly responsive to the new reality by managing operating cost escalations and contesting real estate taxes. Not only will we continue to see a lowering of rental rates across the board, we can expect to see landlord’s look for operating efficiencies and other forms of relief that can be passed on to their tenants. One clear example of this is an emerging trend re-evaluating their parking rates, which now represents approximately $3.00/sq. ft. of office space leased by a typical tenant, in response to the new supply and demand dynamics.
The downtown Calgary office market is inextricably tied to the fortunes of the Canadian and global energy industry. The mantra of “lower for longer”
Abso
rptio
n (S
q Ft
)
-3,000,000
-2,500,000
-2,000,000
-1,500,000
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
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1,500,000
2,000,000
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'16'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00'99'98'97'96
DOWNTOWN CALGARY HISTORICAL ABSORPTION VS WTI
Actual Absorption
2015 Absorption: -2,741,481 SF
$145.31
$107.95
$30.28
$10.86
Oil Price (WTI)
YTD $32+/-
(12/10/1998)
(12/23/2008)
(07/03/2008)
(06/20/2014)
that we continue to hear regarding energy prices certainly rings true for the downtown office market as well. Looking at the market’s long-term rolling average of demand/absorption of approximately 650,000 sq. ft. per year, we can extrapolate that we currently have up to a six year supply of office space before we return to what is considered a balanced market. However, the downtown Calgary office market does not work on predictable averages when it comes to market demand and absorption. Previous oil price declines have typically been reversed by changes in global supply and demand fundamentals as well as geopolitical factors. Over the long term, oil prices will rise and the downtown Calgary commercial real estate market will recover. Years of growth in our city’s core far outweigh periods of contraction, and the price of oil over time follows an upward trend. As you can see in the chart below, each downturn is followed by significant growth, and we can anticipate a positive recovery.
Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Calgary / Downtown | Colliers International5
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LAGIN PLACE
PALLISER LOW RISE/COMMERCIAL
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UNDER CONSTRUCTION
FUTURE/POTENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SITE
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RESIDENTIAL
COVERED SURFACE PARKING
FUTURE +15 WALKWAY
+ 15 WALKWAY
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PETEXBLDG
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AA
BANKERSHALL WEST
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ProposedThe Bow - South
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4
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5POTENTIAL
Century Gardens Tower
POTENTIAL608
DEVEL
BARRON BLDG
POTENTIAL OXFORD TOWERDEVELOPMENT
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RES
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HOTEL
14
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8
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6
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9
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CENTRE
1
CompletedEau Claire Tower
Under Construction
Brookfield PlacePhase I
3
Under Construction707 Fifth Street SW
4
Under ConstructionTelus Sky Tower
5
ProposedPalliser Square
6
ProposedCalgary City Centre
Phase II
7
ProposedOxford Tower
8
ProposedFirst Canadian Centre
Phase II
9
ProposedBrookfield Place
Phase II
10
Proposed8th Avenue &
Centre Street SW
1112
Proposed608 7th Street
13
Proposed Century Gardens
Office Tower
14
ProposedThe Bow Professional
Building
15
ProposedPBA Development
Site
17
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Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Calgary / Downtown | Colliers International6
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1302
13 A
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61613 AVE
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60
31
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1027
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1003-101511 AVE SW
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15013 AVE SW
MA
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9029 AVE SW
Mark On Tenth
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940 11THAVE SW
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607-
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63711 AVE SW
617
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629
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349 - 35510 AVE SW 3
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119
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13
83
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12
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100-63 AVE SE
3023 AVE SE
115-1193 AVE SW
308310312
1103 AVE SE
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119
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100110 AVE SW
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224
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614 10 AVE SW
73010 AVE SW
731-73910 AVE SW815-823
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715 FIFTHAVENUE
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13 A
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121
13 A
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127
13 A
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303MACLEOD TR
1027
1015
1018
1020
1022
1024
1017
1019
1029
1031
WESTPOINTEPLAZA
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8 AVE
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221 - 2278 AVE SW(RETAIL)
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THEPRINCETON
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62
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21512 AVE SE
FIVEWEST
FIVEWEST
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103711 AVE SW
PARALLELCENTRE PLAZA
1000
THEAXXIS
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WESTTOWER
EASTTOWER
LOUISE STATIONHOUSING
DEVELOPMENT
THE BOW
RIVERFRONTPOINTE
JAMIESONPLACE
WATERFRONTCONDOS
PENN WESTPLAZA
WEST TOWER
LE GERMAIN
EAST VILLAGE
8 WEST
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Station)
CONCRETEEQUITIES
PLACE1015
4TH ST SW
CENTRE 10
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
FIRST ON TENTH
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FUTUREDEVELOPMENT
CASTELLOXENEX
806
12 A
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1119
7 ST
SW
1111
POTENTIALPALLISER SQUARE
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SHELDONM. CHUMIR
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BOW R
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BOW RIVER
10 S
TREE
T N
W
MEM
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DRI
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CPR TRACKS
CPR TRACKS
5 AVENUE SE 5 AVENUE SE
3 AVENUE SW
6 AVENUE SW
LIVINGSTONPLACEWEST
520 5TH AVE
WEST EAST
ASIAPACIFICCENTRE
CITYPLAZA
WEST
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THE BOWSOUTHBLOCK
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PLAINSMIDSTREAM
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COURTHOUSE
LIVINGSTON PLACE SOUTH
PALLISERSQUARE SOUTH
KEYNOTE
101-10910 AVE SE
COLOURSUNION
SQUAREPOTENTIAL
STAMPEDE STATIONPHASE II
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840 7THAVENUE
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MA
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3 S
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1 S
TR
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RIVERFRONT AVENUE SE
4 AVENUE SE
6 AVENUE SE
1 S
TR
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SE
3 S
TR
EET
SE
10 AVENUE SE
11 AVENUE SE
12 AVENUE SE
13 AVENUE SE
1 S
TR
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SW
1 S
TR
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SE
2 S
TR
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SW
MA
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10 AVENUE SW
11 AVENUE SW
12 AVENUE SW
13 AVENUE SW
5 S
TR
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SW
4 S
TREE
T S
W
6 S
TR
EET
SW
7 S
TR
EET
SW
5 S
TR
EET
SW
6 S
TR
EET
SW
7 S
TR
EET
SW
6 S
TR
EET
SW
7 S
TR
EET
SW
6 AVENUE SW
5 AVENUE SW
8 AVENUE SW
4 AVENUE SW
3 AVENUE SW
9 AVENUE SW
8 S
TR
EET
SW
8 S
TR
EET
SW
8 ST SW STATION
7 ST SW STATION
6 ST SW STATION
4 ST SW STATION
3 ST SW STATION
1 ST SW STATION
CENTRE ST SW STATION
CITY HALL STATION
CITY HALL STATION
8 S
TR
EET
SW
9 S
TR
EET
SW
13 AVENUE SW
12 AVENUE SW
11 AVENUE SW
10 AVENUE SW
10
ST
REE
T S
W
CEN
TR
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T
1 S
TR
EET
SW
2 S
TR
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SW
STEPHEN AVENUE STEPHEN AVENUE
4 AVENUE SW
5 AVENUE SW
4 S
TREE
T S
W
4 S
TREE
T S
W
3 S
TR
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SW
3 S
TR
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SW
CEN
TR
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T
1 S
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2 S
TR
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5 S
TR
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RIVERFRONT AVE SW
BA
RC
LAY M
ALL
BA
RC
LAY P
ARA
DE
EAU CLAIRE AVENUE SW
2 AVENUE SW
1 AVENUE SW
DAQING AVENUE SW2 AVENUE SW 2 AVENUE SW
9 AVENUE SE9 AVENUE SW
9 S
TR
EET
SW
9 AVENUE SW
10
ST
REE
T S
W
8 AVENUE SW
6 AVENUE SW
5 AVENUE SW
OLY
MPI
C W
AY S
E
13 AVENUE SE
12 AVENUE SE
LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT
LIG
HT R
AIL
TRA
NSI
T
LIGHT RAIL TRANSITLIGHT RAIL TRANSITLIGHT RAIL TRANSIT
N.W
. LRT BR
IDG
E
PEACE BRIDGE
HILLHURST BRIDGE
CEN
TR
E ST
REE
T B
RID
GE
LAN
GEV
IN B
RID
GE
4 AVE
FLY
OVE
R
MEMORIAL DRIVE NE
EDMONTON TR SE
FLYO
VER HEN
RY K
ROEG
ER B
RIDGE
LIG
HT
RA
IL T
RA
NSI
T
MEREDITH ROAD NE
MARSH ROAD NE
4 S
TREE
T N
E
1 AVENUE NE
4 S
TR
EET
UN
DER
PASS
WESTTOWER
EIGHTH AVENUE PLACE
EASTTOWER
RES
IDEN
CES
HOTEL
CALGARY CITY
CENTRE OFFICETOWER
BROOKFIELD PLACE
PHASE II
(POTENTIAL)
WESTTOWER
INTE
RNATI
ON
AL
HO
TEL
707 - 5 Street
Place 10East Tower
(under construction)
Place 10West Tower(Potential)
707 - 5th Street
MAcCOSHAMPLACE
P
9
TELUS SKY TOWER
BROOKFIELD PLACEPHASE I
BOW VALLEYCOLLEGESOUTH CAMPUS
NEW OFFICE CONDO
DEV
BOW PROFESSIONAL
CENTRE
BANKERSHALL WEST
TOWER BANKERSHALL EAST
TOWER
CENTRIUMPLACE
BANKERSCOURT
PENN WESTPLAZA
EAST TOWER
POTENTIALPALLISER SQUARE
WEST
LIVINGSTONPLACEWEST
FUTU
RE
DEV
ELO
PM
ENT
POTENTIAL PBA
DEVELOPMENTSITE
LEGEND
CALGARY DOWNTOWN MAP
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
FUTURE/POTENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SITE
COMMERCIAL
RESIDENTIAL
COVERED SURFACE PARKING
FUTURE +15 WALKWAY
+ 15 WALKWAY
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL900-, 335 - 8TH AVE SWCALGARY, AB T2P 1C0
T +1 403 266 5544F +1 403 265 6495
www.colliers.com/calgary
WAM OWNED SITE
WEXFORD / OXFORDOWNERSHIP SITE
BENTALL KENNEDY OWNERSHIP SITE
CLASS LEGEND
PETEXBLDG
C
615 3rd AVE
SW
DO
MIN
ION
CEN
TRE
FIRSTALBERTA
PLACE
WESTERNCANADIAN
PLACE SOUTH
LIFEPLAZA
FIVE TENFIFTH BLDG
520 5TH AVE
HANOVERPLACE
B
THE CORE (DOWNTOWN RETAIL CORRIDOR)
DEVONIAN GARDENS4TH LEVEL
PETEXBLDG
520 5TH AVE
A
DOMETOWER
PALLISERSQUARE SOUTH
THE CORE (DOWNTOWN RETAIL CORRIDOR)
DEVONIAN GARDENS4TH LEVEL
INTE
RNATI
ON
AL
HO
TEL
AA
BANKERSHALL WEST
TOWER BANKERSHALL EAST
TOWER
PENN WESTPLAZA
EAST TOWER
LIVINGSTONPLACEWEST
ProposedThe Bow - South
4
CompletedCalgary City Centre
4
3
5POTENTIAL
Century Gardens Tower
POTENTIAL608
DEVEL
BARRON BLDG
POTENTIAL OXFORD TOWERDEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL FIRST
CANADIANCENTREPHASE II
POTENTIAL BROOKFIELD
PLACE
PHASE II
THE BOWSOUTHBLOCK
(POTENTIAL)
POTENTIALPALLISER SQUARE
WEST
POTENTIALPALLISER SQUARE
EAST
POTENTIAL8TH AVENUE& CENTRE ST
SW
RES
IDEN
CES
HOTEL
14
13
8
16
15
10
11
12
6
7
9
BOW PROFESSIONAL
CENTRE
1
CompletedEau Claire Tower
Under Construction
Brookfield PlacePhase I
3
Under Construction707 Fifth Street SW
4
Under ConstructionTelus Sky Tower
5
ProposedPalliser Square
6
ProposedCalgary City Centre
Phase II
7
ProposedOxford Tower
8
ProposedFirst Canadian Centre
Phase II
9
ProposedBrookfield Place
Phase II
10
Proposed8th Avenue &
Centre Street SW
1112
Proposed608 7th Street
13
Proposed Century Gardens
Office Tower
14
ProposedThe Bow Professional
Building
15
ProposedPBA Development
Site
17
2 1
21
CALGARY CITY
CENTRE OFFICETOWER
CALGARY CITY
CENTRE OFFICETOWER
ProposedBarron Building
16
17
P
PP
P
P
P
P
P P
P PP
P
P
P
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P
P
P
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502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continentsUnited States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108
$2.3billion in annual revenue
1.7billion square feet under management
16,300professionals and staff
Copyright © 2015 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.
About Colliers International Group Inc.Colliers International Group Inc. is a global leader in commercial real estate services, with more than 16,300 professionals operating out of 502 offices in 67 countries. Colliers International delivers a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide, including global corporate solutions, brokerage, property and asset management, hotel investment sales and consulting, valuation, consulting and appraisal services, mortgage banking and insightful research. In 2014 the firm handled $97 billion in total transaction value for 84,600 leases and sales. Colliers manages more than 1.7 billion square feet of commercial properties.
Colliers International Group Inc. generates more than US$2.3 billion in annual revenues. With significant insider ownership and an experienced management team, Colliers International has a long-term track record of creating value and superior returns for shareholders – previously under the ownership of FirstService, and as of June 2015, continuously as an independently owned company. The common shares of Colliers International Group Inc. trade on the NASDAQ under the symbol “CIGI” and on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “CIG”.
collierscanada.com
MARKET CONTACT:
Joe Binfet | Managing Director | [email protected] | +1 403 298 0402
OFFICE TEAM:
Jim Rea | Executive VP / Partner [email protected] | +1 403 215 7250
Randy Fennessey | President / Partner [email protected] | +1 403 571 8762
Doug May | Senior VP / [email protected] | +1 403 215 7254
Warren Hedges | Senior VP / [email protected] | +1 403 298 0411
Aly Lalani | Senior Vice President / [email protected] | +1 403 298 0410
Kevin McGillis | Vice [email protected] | +1 403 571 8758
David Harvey | Vice President / [email protected] | +1 403 215 7258
Sharma Christie | Vice President / [email protected] | +1 403 215 9864
Dan Lannon | Senior Vice President / [email protected] | +1 403 215 9865
Jeremy Berman | Associate Vice President [email protected] | +1 403 571 8826
Todd Suttcliffe | Associate Vice President [email protected] | +1 403 298 0414
Leigh Kirnbauer | Associate [email protected] | +1 403 298 0408
Derek Wiens | Senior Associate [email protected] | +1 403 298 0415
Craig Hulsman | Associate [email protected] | +1 403 571 8829
Lucas Beck | Associate [email protected] | +1 403 215 9866
Brett Toner | Associate [email protected] | +1 403 298 0406
Steve Berman | [email protected] | +1 403 298 0426
Johnathan Rojas | Leasing [email protected] | +1 403 571 8828
Chantelle Mathews | Client Project [email protected] +1 403 538 2520
Colliers International | Calgary900, 335 - 8th Avenue S.W.Calgary, AB | Canada+1 403 266 5544
