Calibration and Application of HDM-4

for the WSDOT Highway System

Jianhua Li

Steve Muench

Joe Mahoney

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

University of Washington

November 19, 2004

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Outline

Background and Objectives Topics

Data Input Calibration of Road Deterioration Models Output Analysis

Conclusions and Recommendations

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Background

HDM-4 can be used as an economic analysis supplement to the existing WSPMS.

The combination of these tools will create a robust system capable of addressing WSDOT’s pavement management needs.

HDM-4: Highway Development and Management System, version 1.3

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Research Objectives

Apply HDM-4 to the WSDOT highway system:

Test road maintenance standards Determine the required costs for target road conditions Predict pavement conditions under varying budgets Produce an optimal work program

select maintenance treatments select maintenance time

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Research Process

Input data collection, processing and formatting

Calibration of HDM-4 road deterioration models

Output analysis and applications

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Outline

Background and Objectives Topics

Data Input Calibration of Road Deterioration Models Output Analysis

Conclusions and Recommendations

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Data Input

Road networks contains a detailed account of each road section’s physical attributes.

Vehicle fleets contains vehicle characteristics Preservation standards define road maintenance and

rehabilitation practices Traffic and Speed Flow Patterns

Traffic flow patterns model congestion effects on vehicle speeds and vehicle operation costs

Speed flow types model the effects of traffic volume on speeds Climate

(HDM-4 Series, Volume 4)

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Road Network Data

Project level units 2893 flexible sections 615 concrete sections

Program level units

Strategic level units 24 flexible sections 18 concrete sections

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Vehicle Fleets

The same as the WSDOT’s classifications: Passenger car Single unit (0.40 ESALs) Double unit (1.00 ESALs) Train (1.75 ESALs)

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Preservation Standards Asphalt concrete flexible pavements (ACP)

45mm Mill & Fill (Including patching and edge-repair)

45mm Overlay (without milling)(Including patching and edge-repair)

Pothole Patching

Bituminous surface treatment flexible pavements (BST) Bituminous Surface Treatment (double surface dressing)

(Including patching, edge-repair and crack sealing)

Concrete pavements Diamond Grinding Dowel Bar Retrofit Reconstruction

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Outline

Background and Objectives Topics

Data Input Calibration of Road Deterioration Models Output Analysis

Conclusions and Recommendations

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Calibration of Road Deterioration Models

Calibration classification High traffic ACPs Medium traffic ACPs Low traffic ACPs BSTs Concrete pavements

Calibration methodology Flexible pavements Concrete pavements

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Calibration Factors for Flexible Pavements

High or medium sensitivity levels Roughness Rutting Cracking Raveling Potholing

Low or negligible sensitivity levels Edge-break Surface texture Skid resistance

(HDM-4 Series, Volume 4)

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Calibration for Flexible Pavements

Determine calibration coefficients

Derive values of calibration variables

Estimate calibration factors in LIMDEP

Validate calibration factors

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Validation of Estimated Factors

The predicted general shapes and trends of the distress progression curve.

The predicted time interval between preservation efforts.

Pavement preservation was generally triggered by the ≥ 10% cracked area criterion.

Post-rehabilitation conditions.

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Calibration Factors after ValidationCalibration Factor ACP High Traffic ACP Med. Traffic ACP Low Traffic BST

Kcia 1.00 0.84 0.76 0.20

Kciw 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.30

Kcpa 0.71 0.78 0.82 0.50

Kcpw 0.11 0.30 0.45 0.50

Kcit 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.04

Kcpt 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.62

Kpi 1.00a 1.10a 3.00a 1.00a

Kpp 0.10a 0.08a 0.40a 1.00a

Krid 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.01

Krst 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.22

Krpd 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02

Krsw 0.32 0.32 0.32 2.05

Kgm 0.70 0.70 0.70 1.00

Kgp 1.62 1.62 1.62 0.70

Kvi 1.00a 1.00a 1.00a 1.00a

Kvp 0.04a 0.04a 0.04a 1.00a

Ksnpk 0.00a 0.00a 0.00a 0.00a

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Calibration for Concrete Pavements Determine calibration coefficients Run HDM-4

Use default value of 1.0 as calibration factors In project level One-year-forecasting from 2001 Predicted distress values of 2002

Reject outliers Find the real 2002 distress values in WSPMS Regress for Validate

'yY K Y yK

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Errores of Concrete Pavement Outputs

Joint spalling values remain constant over the PCCP life.

Slab cracking values remain constant over the PCCP life.

HDM-4 reports do not show values for “deteriorated cracks” and “failures”.

Predictions of faulting and roughness are incorrect.

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Outline

Background and Objectives Topics

Data Input Calibration of Road Deterioration Models Output Analysis

Conclusions and Recommendations

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Output Analysis

Project level One or more road projects

Program level A defined long list of road projects A one-year or multi-year program Under constrained budgets

Strategic level Entire networks Medium to long term

(HDM-4 Series, Volume 4)

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Project Level Analysis

Pavement performance forecasting

Optimal road treatment program

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Current Conditions For SR 405, MP 13.82 – 15.17 (Southbound Direction)

Characteristic Value

Current Surface Thickness 46 mm

Cement Treated Base Thickness 152 mm

IRI 1.54 m/km

Percentage of Pavement Surface Cracked 0.04%

Potholes 0

Rut Depth 5 mm

Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) 97,813

Number of Lanes 3

Construction Year 1956

Year of Most Recent Overlay 1994

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0

4

8

12

16

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Year

IRI (

m/k

m)

Do Nothing

45 mm Mill & Fill

Pothole Patching Only

45 mm Overlay

Predicted Road Distress Conditions For SR 405, MP 13.82 – 15.17 (Southbound Direction)

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Optimal Road Treatment Program For SR 405, MP 13.82 – 15.17 (Southbound Direction)

Year Description Trigger Road Agency CostWork Quantity

(m2)

2009 45mm overlay Cracking $452,293 23,805

2020 45 mm overlay Cracking $452,293 23,805

2032 45 mm overlay Cracking $452,293 23,805

Total cost for the section: $1,356,879

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Strategic Level Analysis

Optimized Preservation Program (over 40 years) $4.221 billion for all ACPs. $340 million for all BSTs.

Economic Indicators under Varying Budgets

Road Performance under Varying Budgets

Simulation of the WSDOT Funding Scenarios

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Economic Indicators for All ACPs Under Varying Budgets

ScenarioAnnual Budgeta

Repaired Length

(Lane-km)40-Year

Agency Costa

Equilibrium IRIb

(m/km) NPVa

Optimal Funding Level $105.6 17,420 $4,224 1.35 $198,052

Current WSDOT Funding $87.1 14,294 $3,482 5.00 $162,461

75% of Optimal $79.2 13,094 $3,168 6.00 $159,682

50% of Optimal $52.8 8,642 $2,112 9.00 $146,619

Notes:a. All costs are in millions of present-day dollarsb. The IRI that a given funding level can maintain over time.

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0

4

8

12

16

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Year

IRI (m

/km

)

Optimal Budget

Current Budget

75% of Optimal

50% of Optimal

No Budget

Predicted Roughness of All ACPs Under Varying Budgets

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WSDOT Funding Scenarios for All ACPs

 Scenario Funding (million/year)

2004-2005 2006-2043

Optimal $106 $106

Current $87 $87

Cut + Optimal $91 $106

Cut + Current $62 $87

Cut + Restore   $62   ?

(All costs are in millions of dollars and represent a constant annual purchasing power)

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Predicted Roughness for All ACPs

0

2

4

6

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Year

IRI (

m/k

m)

Cut + Current

Cut + Optimal

Current andCut + Restore

Optimal

Notes: 1. The "Current" and "Cut + Restore" scenarios have virtually identical roughness plots

2. The "Cut + Restore" scenario costs $150 million more than the "Current" scenario

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Outline

Background and Objectives Topics

Data Input Calibration of Road Deterioration Models Output Analysis

Conclusions and Recommendations

Jianhua Li, University of Washington

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Conclusions HDM-4 can be used for the WSDOT road network. The flexible pavements deterioration models can be

calibrated. The WSDOT road network requires calibration factors

significantly different than default HDM-4 values. The current version of HDM-4 (v1.3) does not provide

meaningful analysis output for PCCP road deterioration models .

Based on the available data and calibrated models for flexible pavements, WSDOT can use HDM-4 to

Predict the required budget based on selected target road conditions. Produce road treatment strategies under varying budget levels. Assist WSDOT and policy makers in determining the long-term effects

of different funding scenarios.

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Recommendations

Check the program code for concrete pavement analysis.

Allow input of specific deterioration models. Determine if and how calibration factors change

from year-to-year given new WSPMS data. Determine how useful WSDOT calibration factors

are for other states.