California Energy Commission
Joint Lead Commissioner Workshop on Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts
June 24, 2015
Bob McBride
Demand Analysis Office
Energy Assessments Division
1
Preliminary Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Forecast
California Energy Commission
Overview
• Truck purchase factors differ (public vs. private)
• Emphasis on low demand scenario• Forecasting fuel types for trucks • Market share consequences of fuel
price• Planned updates
2
California Energy Commission
Different Factors Motivate Public and Private Truck Purchases
Public Fleet • Fleet age or mileage • Funding available• Incentives and goals• Demonstration of
technology• Air quality regulation• Range
Private Fleet• Payback period
– Age-dependent costs– Expected annual VMT
• Limited by weight or volume?
• Technology experience• Air quality regulation• Range
3
California Energy Commission
Preliminary Truck Forecast
• Based on Truck 5.1 Model produced by National Petroleum Council– EIA Annual Energy Outlook fuel economy, fuel and
vehicle prices as of 2010– Diesel, gasoline, natural gas, and diesel-electric
hybrid are considered
• Estimates of market share by fuel type• Market share driven by relative fuel prices
4
California Energy Commission
Preliminary Truck Counts Medium and Heavy Duty
5
All fuel types included
California Energy Commission
2015 Economic ConditionsFavor Diesel
6
ACT Research, Natural Gas Quarterly, May 2015
California Energy Commission
7
Lower percentages are more favorable
to natural gas.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20260%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Low Oil Price Reference Oil Price ScenarioHigh Oil Price
Natural Gas Prices as Percentage of Diesel Prices
California Energy Commission
8
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20260
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
Preliminary Fleet Composition by Fuel Low Demand
Diesel Diesel-Electric Hybrid Gasoline Natural gas
California Energy Commission
9
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20260
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
Preliminary Fleet Composition by FuelReference Demand
Diesel Diesel-Electric Hybrid Gasoline Natural gas
California Energy Commission
10
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20260
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Preliminary Fleet Composition by Fuel High Demand
Diesel Diesel-Electric HybridGasoline Natural gas
California Energy Commission
11
Diesel market share roughly flat while natural gas market share increases.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20260
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Preliminary Low Demand CaseNew Combination Tractors
Diesel Natural gas
California Energy Commission
12
Recycling and refuse truck sales driven by air quality policies.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20260
100
200
300
400
500
600
Preliminary Low Demand CaseNew Refuse and Recycling Trucks
Diesel Natural gas
Ne
w T
ruc
ks
California Energy Commission
Changes Expected for Revised Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle
Forecast
13
California Energy Commission
14
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 202650%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Preliminary Natural Gas Price as Percentage of Diesel Price
AEO 2010 AEO 2015 National DAO 2015 California
In 2015 fuel price forecasts Natural gas prices are ex-pected to be closer to Diesel prices
California Energy Commission
Market Share Using DAO 2015 High Oil Prices
15
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Diesel Combo NG ComboDiesel Single Unit NG Single Unit
Historical (calc)
California Energy Commission
16
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Diesel Combo NG Combo Diesel Single Unit NG Single Unit
Historical (calc)
Market Share Using DAO 2015 Low Oil Prices
California Energy Commission
Proposed Updates
• Fuel and vehicle prices• EMFAC 2014 data• Market share estimates
17
California Energy Commission
Questions? Comments?
Bob McBride
Demand Analysis Office
Energy Assessments Division
[email protected] / 916-654-5009
18
California Energy Commission
Reference Slides
19
California Energy Commission
Final Forecast Principal Sources• Energy Commission, Supply Analysis Office, 2015
Preliminary Fuel Price Forecast• Energy Information Agency, Annual Energy Outlook,
2015 Fuel Price Forecast • Truck 5.1 model used in Advancing Technology for
America’s Transportation Future, Summary Report, National Petroleum Council, 2012
• ARB Technology Assessments (now in draft)• EMFAC 2014 (now in EPA SIP review)• U. S. Department of Energy, Energy Information
Administration, Annual Energy Outlook, 2015
20
California Energy Commission
21
Fuel Economy Increase of ~40% (2015 to 2030, AEO 2010 High Oil Price Case)
Source: NPC 2012
California Energy Commission
Preliminary Sales Share of Tractor Trailers by Fuel Type
22
Source: NPC 2012
California Energy Commission
23
Fuel Type Share of Single Unit Trucks >26,000# GVW (AEO 2010 Fuel Prices)
Source: NPC 2012
California Energy Commission
Fuel Type Share of Single Unit Trucks 10,000# to 26,000# GVW (AEO 2010 High Oil Prices)
24
Source: NPC 2012
