CalNex Forecast

Prepared Sunday

27 June 2010

Anticipated Flights

NOAA Twin OtterSun:   two flightsMon:  potentially one flight? Tue:   transit to LAWed:  Mexico flight

CARES DOE G-1 and NASA B200 Sun:    AM/PM flights likelyMon:   AM/PM flights likelyTue:    MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

Local Features - Sac area focus

Sunday - synoptic flow weakens significantly, terrain driven flow with light W delta inflow coupled with upslope flow; pollutant concentrations build (Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups forecast); CANSAC appears better solution than COAMPS today; weak flow to east in Sac (downtown to T0 flow doubtful; urban flow toward T1 with long transport time) but bulk of urban flow south of T1; winds <5 kts.

Monday - high pressure ridge lingering - primarily terrain driven flow; light NW to W wind coupled with upslope flow in foothills; no or limited Delta inflow; with light winds, Sac air flows south of T1; USG air quality likely.

Tuesday - smoke possible from prescribed burns in Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks.

Synoptic OverviewNOTE:  FORECAST NOT UPDATED FROM SATURDAY'S CALL(only change is that ridge slower to break down and Monday will be similar to Sunday) 

Sunday June 27• High Pressure peaks• Light and variable flow• Onshore gradient weakens

Monday June 28 • High Pressure breaks down as Trof approaches• Transport flow SW north, Southerly south• Marine layer deepens in the north• Light and variable flow S.CA

Tue – Thurs• Tue:   Deep Trof approaches, SW flow throughout• Wed:  Trof axis over N.CA late aftn-eve, SW flow, deeper marine layer• Thurs: Trof axis over Ca, W-NW flow in N.CA, W-SW in S.CA

GFS and ECMWF

Updated Sunday, June 27, 2010

Analysis GFS – 00 Z Sunday – Sat 17 PDT

12 hour GFS – 12 Z Sunday – 05 PDT

24 hour GFS – 00 Z Monday – Sun 17 PDT

36 hour GFS – 12 Z Monday – 05 PDT

48 hour GFS – 00 Z Tuesday – Mon 17 PDT

60 hour GFS – 12 Z Tuesday – 05 PDT

GFS 3 day – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

ECMWF 3 day – 00 Z Wednesday – Tue 17 PDT

3.5 day GFS – 12 Z Wednesday – 05 PDT

4 day GFS – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

4 day ECMWF – 00 Z Thursday – Wed 17 PDT

5 day GFS – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT

5 day ECMWF – 00 Z Friday – Thu 17 PDT

1430 UTC

Large Scale Transport

RAQMS FX updated Sunday, June 27

Large Scale Transport

focus on Sacramento area500m RDF FX 00Z 06/27 (Sun Afternoon)Clean air wrt transport over area (low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Moderate (5-10ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Minimal vertical displacement of air (descent near coast).500m RDF FX 00Z 06/28 (Mon Afternoon)Clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO and O3). Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Strong descent of air.

focus on San Joaquin Valley500m RDF FX 00Z 06/29 (Tue Afternoon)Generally clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO); O3, BC_OC, and SO4 slightly higher in Kern County). Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Moderate descent of air; more descent in southern portion of valley.

focus on Mexico500m RDF FX 00Z 06/30 (Wed Afternoon)Generally clean air wrt transport over area (clean to low levels of BC_OC, SO4, PM2.5, CO); Note: SO4 very high to SW and E of northern Mexico; moderate O3 levels. Low (0-5ppbv/day) background O3 P-L. Minimal vertical displacement of air.

500m Black and Organic C - Sunday afternoon

500m PM2.5 - Sunday afternoon

500m CO - Sunday afternoon

500m O3 - Sunday afternoon

500m O3 Prod-Loss - Sunday afternoon

500m Vertical Displacement - Sunday afternoon

500m Black and Organic C - Monday afternoon

500m PM2.5 - Monday afternoon

500m CO - Monday afternoon

500m O3 - Monday afternoon

500m O3 Prod-Loss - Monday afternoon

500m Vertical Displacement - Monday afternoon

500m Black and Organic C - Tuesday afternoon

500m PM2.5 - Tuesday afternoon

500m CO - Tuesday afternoon

500m O3 - Tuesday afternoon

500m O3 Prod-Loss - Tuesday afternoon

500m Vertical Displacement - Tuesday afternoon

500m Black and Organic C - Wednesday afternoon

500m PM2.5 - Wednesday afternoon

500m CO - Wednesday afternoon

500m O3 - Wednesday afternoon

500m O3 Prod-Loss - Wednesday afternoon

500m Vertical Displacement - Wednesday afternoon

Sulphate

Large Scale Transport

500m SO4 - Sunday afternoon

500m SO4 - Monday afternoon

500m SO4 - Tuesday afternoon

500m SO4 - Wednesday afternoon

Northern California

Observed, Model-Interpolated Winds for SF Bay http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi

 and

 COAMPS fine grid plots

10 M WINDS AND 10 M TRACER FROM N SF BAY  

 THE COAMPS LOOPS PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION  http://www.sccoos.org/data/coamps/coamps.html 

http://sfports.wr.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/wind/windbin.cgi

10-m wind 12 Z Sun

10-m wind 18 Z Sun

10-m wind 00 Z Mon

10-m wind 06 Z Mon

10-m wind 12 Z Mon

10-m wind 18 Z Mon

10-m wind 00 Z Tue

10-m wind 06 Z Tue

10-m wind 12 Z Tue

10-m wind 18 Z Tue

10-m wind 00 Z Wed

205m tracer 12 Z Sun

205m tracer 18 Z Sun

205m tracer 00 Z Mon

205m tracer 06 Z Mon

205m tracer 12 Z Mon

205m tracer 18 Z Mon

205m tracer 00 Z Tue

CANSAC Initialized 00 Z Sunday

10-m wind 12 Z Sun

10-m wind 18 Z Sun

10-m wind 00 Z Mon

10-m wind 06 Z Mon

10-m wind 12 Z Mon

10-m wind 18 Z Mon

10-m wind 00 Z Tue

10-m wind 06 Z Tue

10-m wind 12 Z Tue

10-m wind 18 Z Tue

10-m wind 00 Z Wed

Walnut Grove Tower Ozone Data http://tbsys.serveftp.net/wg/wgup/wgtower_o3.htm

Sacramento Valley (old 6/26 forecast)

Sunday• AM: Weak onshore flow continues to die down, generally S and below 4kt in

Sac Cnty in early AM; onshore flow nonexistent; stagnation in mid morning and Sac Cnty becomes SSW2kt in late morning

• Early PM: Onshore flow starts to resume W10kt in the Bay; greater upslope flow in the valley - Sac Cnty at W4kt; wind shift between late morning and early afternoon provides opportunity for Downtown plume to move to T0 and T1, may miss T1 because southerly wind not strong enough

• Late Aftn: Onshore flow makes it way into lower Sac Cnty; upper Sac Cnty and Cool still under thermal upslope effect

• Evening: Onshore flow reaches the foothills, but not strong enough to go upslope to Cool

• PBL 500 to 1000ft in AM; PM PBL 5,000ft (S.SV)• MBL below 500ft;• Max aftn temp: 38C/100F; USG air quality

Sacramento Valley  (old 6/26 forecast)

Monday• AM: Weak onshore flow, almost nonexistent; stagnation (SSW2kt) in Sac

Cnty until thermally driven upslope flow draws W flow in late morning; W3kt flow to Cool, Sac Cnty at W2kt in late AM;

• Early PM: Sign of onshore flow starting up, upslope flow stronger from the W; Downtown plume brush by just south of T0 and misses T1

• Late Aftn: Onshore flow reaches the delta; Downtown plume gets close to T0 (under a bit of delta wind influence) but still misses T1; T1 still experiences upslope flow from the W

• CANSAC transport wind shows plume will stay in Sac foothills, more northern than GFS tranjectories

• AM PBL 500ft; PM PBL 5,000ft• MBL below 500ft;• Max aftn temp: 35C/95F; USG air quality

Sacramento Trajectory (Sun)

Sacramento Trajectory (Mon)

San Joaquin Valley - updated June 27, 2010

Sunday June 27Surface Winds: The surface observations this morning show thermally driven wind flow across the SJV. The Chowchilla and Visalia wind profilers indicate light and variable wind flow throughout the atmospheric profile. 0Z CANSAC shows weak onshore flow, wtih afternoon thermally driven northwesterly winds across the entire District this afternoon.  Winds will become light and variable this evening.  Onshore flow will weaken overnight.  Boundary Layer Mixing: 0Z CANSAC indicates maximum mixing depths will be between 2,000 and 3,000 feet this afternoon.Air Quality: Moderate air quality will dominate from Madera county northward.  USG air quality will prevail for Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties. Monday June 28Surface Winds:  Thermally driven wind flow will continue tomorrow.  Northwesterly winds will be stronger tomorrow as compared to Sunday.  Boundary Layer Mixing:  Slightly deeper mixing depths will occur tomorrow under a little more afternoon heating.Air Quality:  Moderate air quality will dominate from Madera county northward.  USG air quality will prevail for Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties. Note:  RX Burn Scheduled on Tuesday in Sequoia Kings Canyon National Park (Bobcat)

Central Coast

NO FORECAST until operations in SoCal

 Southern Coastal Waters

  

 NO FORECAST until operations in SoCal

 

South Coast Air Basin

NO FORECAST until operations in SoCal