Theories of Change

CALP webinarJanuary 2016

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A ToC is not a diagram

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However creative

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Ways people describe theory of changefrom Comic Relief Study

• Programme theory/ logic/ approach • A road map for change • A causal pathway/ chain/ model/ map • Pathways mapping • Intervention theory/ framework/ logic • A process of open enquiry and dialogue • A clear and testable hypothesis • A logic model • A blueprint for evaluation • Back to basics • A direction of travel • A sense of direction

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Approaches to theory of change

• Approach 1: Those that focus on how projects or programmes expect to bring change

• OR • Approach 2: Those that explore how change happens more

broadly and then what that means for programme interventions – including advocacy and influencing!

Theory of Change is simply an on-going process of reflection to explore change and how it happens – and what that means for the part we play in a particular context, advocacy campaign or programme

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THEORY OF CHANGE

Political literacy Technical tool

ToC is seen as providing practitioners with anopportunity to engage more honestly with the complexity of change processes.

ToC is seen as extending the assumptions/risks columnof a logical framework.

Participatory process

Evolving, iterative

A questioning attitudeA questioning attitude

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Oxfam’s emerging Theory of Change

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Oxfam’s Gender Justice Theory of Change

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Elements of a Theory of Change for Advocacy and Influencing

lasting change=

convinced decision makers+

credible arguments +

broad and intense support+

an infrastructure that sustains change+

mass attitudes and beliefs that can sustainchange (and sometimes are the change)

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ToC – A cycle of planning and critical reflection

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THE CHANGE PATHWAY

What do you understand by

a change pathway?

A programme logic model/impact chain is a simple diagram representing a programme’s theory of change

A description of the kind of short and longer term outcomes we think are needed to bring about programme impact

An explanation of how we think change happens

A summary of the role that Oxfam and others will play in bringing about changeAn articulation of the assumptions that we are making about how change happens

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Develop your unique change pathway – a way to do itBackward mapping – outcomes to stategies/activities

1. Clarify your goal – ultimate impact that you want to influence/ achieve (results statement)

2. Identify long term changes that will support this goal and that you can influence (indirectly) (long-term outcomes)

3. Work backwards: ask yourselves, in order for this to happen what needs to change (who would be doing what differently)? (medium-term outcomes)

4. Again: ask “in order for these changes to take place, what has to be different (who would be doing what differently – what would have to be in place?) (short-term outcomes)

5. Once you have agreed and written up long, medium and short term changes, discuss and agree:

o Who you should be working with?o What you should be doing with them? (strategies/activities)

6. Link it all to your power analysis

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Change Pathway as Out come Map or Impact Chain

Overall Change

Long-term outcome

Long-term outcome

Strategies

Medium-term outcome

Medium-term outcome

Medium-term outcome

Medium-term outcome

Short-term outcome

Short-term outcome

Short-term outcome

Short-term outcome

Short-term outcome

Strategies

Strategies

Strategies

Strategies

Strategies

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Testing the TOC - What is an assumption?

• Assumption = something that is accepted as true or certain to happen but there is no proof (yet)

• Good practice in Theories of Change says “assumptions must be made explicit, categorised and linked to specific aspects of the change pathway”

Some common assumptions we make in our work?

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Testing the TOC - What is an assumption?

• Assumption = something that is accepted as true or certain to happen but there is no proof (yet)

• Good practice in Theories of Change says “assumptions must be made explicit, categorised and linked to specific aspects of the change pathway”

Some common assumptions we make in our work?

• People are not aware of their rights and because of this they don’t act.

• If women participate in politics, they will advance women’s rights.

• If we achieve a pro-poor policy change, positive change for women and marginalized groups will come.

• If we strengthen civil society organizations, they will influence the government

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Testing the logic and your assumptions

For each of the links that you have made, ask yourselves the following sort of questions:

• Why did you think that x would lead to y? • What might hinder this from happening? (e.g. costs,

opposing views, lack of trust/ capacity/technology, people losing assets etc.)

• Are there any missing links?• Who else might need to be involved? • Looking at the pathway again, are there better ways of

getting to your goal?• Are there things you are not sure or confident about?• What do your other stakeholders think?

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If………… Then………

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What do they look like?

• No “official” format – depends on context in which you are developing one and what type of intervention

For instance

• Policy change focus only

• Focused on attitude and behaviour change as well as political or policy change at national level

• Part of a “one programme” approach – delivery programme at community level linked to partners linked to national policy change or the creation of an enabling environment etc.

Examples of theories of change

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ToC – A cycle of planning and critical reflection

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What to do in complex or uncertain situations ?

• Informed best guess

• Choosing a number of entry points

• Close monitoring

• Willingness to stop or change approach

• Regular moments to reflect and adjust

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TOC and MEAL - Key questions

In Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) there are three critical questions:

• Are we doing what we said we would do?• (Internal Validity)

• Are we making a difference?• (Evaluation)

• Are these the right things to do?• (Strategic relevance)

•And are we doing the things that will get as far as we can along the road to achieving the change we seek?

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TOC and MEAL plans

Consider what information you need to collect to answer the following key questions:

• What has changed (positive/ negative/intended or not)?• For whom?• How significant is this?• How did the changes come about? (What factors contributed

to them)• What if anything did our organisation/programme contribute?• What would we do differently next time?• What information do you need to effectively manage and

evaluate change?

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WHY DO WE USE THEORIES OF CHANGE AND LOGIC MODELS?• Programme/Campaign planning

• To bridge the gap between strategic and operational planning• To build a joint vision with partners of what we are going to do and how

we are going to do it• To show the cause and effect relationships between activities, strategies

and outcomes together with underlying assumptions

• Communication• To summarise the key elements of a programme for new staff, partners

and donors

• Monitoring and evaluation• To identify critical evaluation questions and indicators• To encourage us to think about whether we are on track to achieving our

long-term goals• To provide a basis for future programme evaluations

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Useful links• https://sumus.oxfam.org/influencing-hub/wiki/strategy-design

• https://sumus.oxfam.org/camsa-common-approach-mel-and-strategic-accountability/wiki/22-program-planning-and-design

• http://www.theoryofchange.nl/sites/default/files/resource/hivos_toc_guidelines_final_nov_2015.pdf

• http://www.theoryofchange.nl/

• http://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/where-have-we-got-to-on-theories-of-change-passing-fad-or-paradigm-shift/

• http://www.theoryofchange.org/2014/03/28/corelab/

• http://www.theoryofchange.org/library/presentations/

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Questions AND NEXT STEPS