POWER ANALYSIS,

POWER MAPPING &

Theories of Change

CALP 4 webinar

Jan 2015

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Why does power matter?

“Development is about power and its progressive redistribution

from the haves to the have-nots”. Winnie Byanyima, Oxfam International

Executive Director

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Power Analysis for Change

Forms

Visible

Hidden, operates behind

the scenes

Invisible,based on ideology

and beliefs.

Spaces

In closed groups

With invited parties

In created spaces

Levels

Household

Local

National

Global

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Visible, Hidden, Invisible Power

What can we learn about power from the following examples?

Example A

On December 5th, 1994, the members of parliament of Tobostan voted 200 to 150 in favour of a

bill permitting the right to have an abortion.

Example B

The town of Penningscale is situated 30 kilometers from a nuclear plant. The residents are very

concerned about the high incidence of cancer in the community and have raised the issue on

many occasions with their local representatives. Whilst the local representatives are sympathetic,

they are also aware of the employment opportunities created by the plant. The issue was tabled

for discussion at the last local government meeting but due to an unexpectedly lengthy debate on

local taxation, the matter was not discussed.

Example C

In the province of Tuzal in the country of Sutuzania 80% of land is owned by 10% of the

population. Most farmers have a small plot of land for subsistence purposes but also work as

labourers in the fields of landowners. The landowners remunerate their workers with a small

wage, sufficient to buy basic necessities such as soap and cooking oil. They also provide their

workers with clothing and special food on religious occasions. In some districts landowners have

contributed towards the costs of basic primary schooling. Compared to the neighbouring country

of Portania, there has been little political unrest.

(source: Jude Howell, from her course on Empowering Society, IDS, 2002)

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Spaces where power is exercised

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Levels of power

Global

National

Local

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Types of power

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Types of power

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Types of power

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Types of power

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Characteristics of Power

• Women and men hold multiple roles and relationships. With

each, their level of power can vary.

• Power can be economic, political, social, cultural and

symbolic. People are rarely powerful in (nor powerless

across) all forms.

• Power is not a zero-sum game.

• Power is socially constructed.

• A person’s experience of power can depend on their gender,

race, class, age, etc.

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What kinds of power are you

challenging/ engaging with in your

work?

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Case Study: Jubilee Campaign

• Global policies on debt, like most macro-economic policies,

have traditionally been decided in ‘closed’ spaces, with little

invited public consultation with or participation by those poor

people directly affected, and few alternative spaces for debate

to occur.

• This form of power in the policy making process is surrounded

by forms of hidden and invisible power: the prevailing

mobilisation of bias re-enforces the idea that policy is the

province of expert economists.

• Poor people are often socialized to accept the legitimacy of

such expertise, even when it apparently contradicts their own

interests.

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Case Study: Jubilee campaign

• The emergence of a global movement to put the impact of

debt on poor nations on the public agenda, and to challenge

the power relationships that linked debt and poverty. Led by a

broad coalition known as Jubilee 2000:

• Mobilized at all levels. Global to national

• Engaged multiple spaces. Challenging closed decision

making spaces (IMF), taking advantage of invited arenas and

mobilizing outside closed and invited spaces.

• Empowering people. Economic literacy and public education

which enable local people to speak for themselves were just

as important as technical research, professional advocacy

Power Mapping

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Power Mapping

What is a 'power analysis map’? Why do one?

• Understand the networks and relationships between

people and institutions – who has the direct power to

deliver the change you want, who can influence them?

i.e.

• Who makes decisions concerning your objective?

• How are these decisions made?

• Who can influence the decision making process and

those with the power to bring about the change you

want?

• Allies and opponents? What are their interests?

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Top tips

Remember:

• Make your stakeholders specific to your objective i.e.

‘targeted’ & ‘prioritised’

• Your analysis of an institution needs to be subdivided in

to named individuals so

a) you can be specific and

b) there may be allies/champions, opponents/blockers,

floaters or targets within one institution

• Think about how power can shift and change

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Power Mapping cont.

• More than way to cut a cake!

• So a few different tools to establish:

- the stakeholders for your advocacy objective(s)

- their degree of power to deliver the change you want

- who has influence over who.

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Power Power mapping grid

High Influence

Medium Influence

Low Influence

Blocker Floater Champion

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A visual power map

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Checklist

• Lessons from previous power analyses and campaigns

• Available data

• Developed in collaboration with others

• A way to check information/ verify assumptions

Examples of power analysis and

mapping

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Power map climate politics 2009

Progressive G77, incl. LDCs e.g. Bangladesh

More powerfulLess powerful

More Supportive 2oC

Less supportive 2oC

China

USA

Japan

Australia

Canada

S. KoreaMexico

India

Brazil

Prog. A1 e.g. Norway

Other EU

Saudi/

OPEC

Russia

Indonesia

AOSIS

Rest of Africa e.g. UgandaProgressive EU

Climate champions

Swing states

Deal-blockers

Core/deal-makers

S. Africa

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Allies Blockers Opportunity

30% UK, Denmark,

Sweden, Netherlands,

Belgium

Hungary, Italy

Scale Netherlands (€100bn

new & add), UK

(€100bn but messy)

Poland (until internal

burden-sharing

agreed), Italy

Additionality to

ODA

Netherlands,

Denmark, UK, EP

Germany, Belgium, EC

(DG DEV)

France

No double-

counting offsets

Netherlands

(All EU? EGIP on-

board)

Sweden, Spain (?), UK EC (DG ENV)

Norwegian-type

mechanisms

UK, Netherlands EC (DG ENV), no

interest other MSs

France

Equitable

governance under

UNFCCC

UK, France, Germany,

EC (DG DEV, ENV)

Italy

Upfront finance Netherlands, UK,

POLAND!!

Germany

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Power Analysis and Mapping

• What do we want to change?

• Policy, practice, belief?

• Obstacles?

• Opportunities?

• Who has influence over our change objectives?

• What institutions?

• Where?

• Who

• How- What actions will influence them?

• Best tools to use?

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Power analysis & power mapping as part of

your programme’s advocacy and campaigning

• Put it at the core of any successful campaign strategy development.

• Dispel the myth—power analysis is not the same as power mapping

• Integrate it at all the stages of strategy development

• Analysis happens within the media – so be on top of it!

• Ideally all members of the team should be part of power analysis

(programme officers/managers, communications staff,

advocacy/campaigns staff, MEL)

• “Share the love” of power analysis (allies, partners, experts).

• Power is not static: constantly update and review

• Don’t hesitate to block initiatives that are not based on rigorous power analysis

• Don’t overdo it – rigorous but light! “good enough”

Questions AND NEXT

STEPSKala Constantino January 2015

Use of THEORY OF

CHANGE

in Advocacy work

Or how do you think change will happen?

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Ways people describe theory of changefrom Comic Relief Study

• Programme theory/ logic/ approach

• A road map for change

• A causal pathway/ chain/ model/ map

• Pathways mapping

• Intervention theory/ framework/ logic

• A process of open enquiry and dialogue

• A clear and testable hypothesis

• A logic model

• A blueprint for evaluation

• Back to basics

• A direction of travel

• A sense of direction

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Approaches to theory of change

• Approach 1: Those that focus on how projects or programmes

expect to bring change

• OR

• Approach 2: Those that explore how change happens more

broadly and then what that means for programme

interventions – including advocacy and influencing!

Theory of Change is simply an on-going process of reflection

to explore change and how it happens – and what that means

for the part we play in a particular context, advocacy

campaign or programme

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Key elements of a Theory of Change

• The context for change

• What is our overall vision for change – the lasting impact we

want to see and for whom?

• How does change happen for our target population in our

context?

• Our organisational (or programme) contribution to change

• What are the long-term changes needed in the lives of our target

population?

• Who and what needs to change in order to achieve those long-

term changes?

• What are the key approaches or strategies that we can

contribute that will be vital in bringing about change?

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Questions to help you think about how

change might happen

• Looking at the context in society, opportunities, structures and

dynamics to determine how a desired change might come about i.e.

to meet your desired outcomes.

• What are the important local and national changes happening in

your context?

• What are the main obstacles (attitudes and beliefs, institutions,

economic or political players) to progressive change?

• Which of these changes are most relevant (whether positive or

negative) for poor and excluded people?

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Theory of change questions

• What alliances (e.g. with sympathetic officials or

politicians, private sector, media, faith leaders or within

civil society) could drive/block the change?

• What tactics are likely to work best (co-operation vs

conflict, research vs street protest)?

• What are the pivotal moments/windows of

opportunity (e.g. new governments; changes of

leadership; crises and scandals; election timetables)?

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Then thinking about Oxfam or your

organisations role in change?

• Working operationally and/or supporting others to

achieve the desired change

• Leveraging? Brokering? Convening? Lobbying?

• Advocacy and campaigning for change

• Bringing partners together with other actors to build

alliances (who are the partners?)

• Helping to develop particular aspects of partners’

organisational capacity e.g. in advocacy

• Creating pilot projects for replication and advocating for

adoption

• Funding

• Other roles?

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Developing a Theory of Change

1. Define your desired impact

2. Outline the outcomes that the influencing will need to achieve to bring about the impact

3. Conduct a context analysis and power mapping on the key issues addressed by the influencing work e.g. who are the allies, blockers, ‘swingers’ etc. and how can they be influenced?

4. Based on this, determine effective strategies to achieve outcomes and any ‘intermediate outcomes’ along the way.

5. Pull together a theory of change (or logic model diagram)illustrating the influencing impact, outcomes, and strategies and your assumptions.

6. Test it with people who think differently and will challenge you and your assumptions.

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Levels at which change can happen in

advocacy and influencing workChanging the terms of the debate

(in society and politically)

Developing a strong campaign proposition

Building a public constituency for change

Influencing the media

influencing policy makers

Changing attitudes and behaviours

Influencing political climate for

policy change

Sustaining political pressure for change

Sustaining media attention on issue

Achieving policy change

Maintaining pressure for

policy implementation

Compliance monitoring

Continuing media coverage

Influencing decision makers

Achieving practice changeOthers?

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Elements of a Theory of Change for Advocacy

and Influencing

lasting change

=

convinced decision makers

+

credible arguments

+

broad and intense support

+

an infrastructure that sustains change

+

mass attitudes and beliefs that can sustain

change (and sometimes are the change)

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What do they look like?

• No “official” format – depends on context in which you are developing

one and what type of intervention

For instance

• Policy change focus only

• Focused on attitude and behaviour change as well as political or policy

change at national level

• Part of a “one programme” approach – delivery programme at

community level linked to partners linked to national policy change or

the creation of an enabling environment etc.

Examples

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Theory of Change – Arms Trade Treaty

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AcT theory of change:

‘Supporting civil society partners to implement

context-specific strategic interventions will enable

them to influence positive change in the attitudes

and behaviour of citizens, civil society and

government, making government as a whole more

responsive and accountable.’

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• If civil society grantees are carefully selected and respond to individual support

tailored to their programming and internal systems, they will be able to develop

targeted strategic interventions which are sensitive to changes over time and in the

broader political economy, as well as their geographic location, their sector,

institutional mandate and values.

• And if grantees also commit to systematic learning individually and collectively the

work they do will be more the effective.

• CSOs implementing programmes will engage in a range of information generating

and disseminating activities as well as developing the capacity of other

stakeholders to articulate their roles and responsibilities.

• Some participatory activities build directly into citizen action and civil society

strengthening, whereas others focus on influencing the behaviour of elected and

appointed officials and of the judiciary – at local and national levels.

• Influencing activities can be formal or informal, inside track or outside track, and

CSOs become more adept at selecting which is going to be most effective under

what circumstances.

• The result of the behaviour changes on the part of key stakeholders is the purpose

level of the programme: ‘Increased responsiveness and accountability of

government through a strengthened civil society

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Transforming

women’s + men’s

Consciousness

Transforming

women’s access

to resources

Transforming

formal Institutions,

laws

+ practices

Transforming

informal cultural

norms +

exclusionary

practices

Info

rma

l

Fo

rma

l

Systemic

IndividualOutcome:

Increased # of individual

men and women, and

movements that promote

women’s rights and

reject VAWSo that:

• More women know their

rights

• Men and women have

positively transformed their

attitudes and behaviors –

and influenced others to

change theirs – on VAW

So that:

• Public services and

institutions are transformed

to support + empower VAW

survivors

• Donors and govts increase

budgets to end VAW

• More women are able to

organize collectively + take

action on VAW

• More women feel safe

• More survivors can access

justice

Outcome:

Survivors are more effectively

supported and have increasingly

acted as change agents in their

communities on VAW

Outcome

CSOs, especially WROs,

networks and movements,

have influenced duty

bearers, traditional

structures and practices to

protect women’s rights and

end impunity for VAW

So that:

• WROs and CSOs, community

groups and other informal

leaders effectively address

unequal power imbalance and

advocate for an end of VAW

• More women are able to

collectively participate in and

influence informal power

structures

• More women’s networks and

movements - especially young

women’s - have strengthened

their institutional capacity to

implement effective VAW

programs and advocate for

change

So that:

• Duty bearers demonstrate

their commitment to reduce

VAW and to transformational

change

• Women’s and mixed orgs

communicate evidence of

effective strategies

• Donors update their

frameworks to increase

funding to effective strategies

that address root causes of

VAWOutcome

National / international

legislation, regulations and

services are implemented,

funded and women’s rights

to freedom from violence is

are upheld

Women's rights will have been

claimed and advanced through a significant reduction in the social acceptance

and incidence of Violence against Women

Strategies

Action research

Awareness raising

Capacity development

Leadership development

Engage men and boys

Strategies

Model high quality

service delivery

Leadership development

Leverage greater

resources for an end

of VAW

Strategies

Action research

Advocacy and influencing

Strategic alliance bldg

Convene/broker access

of WROs

Strategies

Core support to WROs

Org capacity devt

Movement-building

Challenge cultural norms

Model strategies effective

in development +

+ humanitarian work

For transformation,

changes are often

needed in all

quadrants, and at

individual, household,

community, national,

and international levels

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What are the benefits?

• A basis for planning

• A basis for MEL

• Rich source of ideas

• Recognising our own and others' theories of

change is helpful in alliance-building

• Helps deal with complexity

• Likely to increase your agility and impact

• Increasingly, required by funders

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Strengthening of advocacy

‘Much of the writing and use of theory of change focuses

on its benefits in research and advocacy work. A theory

of change process can help focus advocacy targets

better and define more clearly the pathway to achieving

them, drawing on broad theories about how advocacy

works. Academic studies, some theory of change

guidance and key informants also argue that it provides a

convincing ‘story’ to use to influence policy – which can

be more effective than the ‘thumping fact’.’

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Common mistakes we make...

1. We overcomplicate it

2. We develop a theory and never go back to it

3. We are restricted by the linear programme log frame

4. We fail to acknowledge our implicit existing theory & ideology

5. We don’t look beyond CSOs when mapping (binary world of

civil society and state)

6. We plan for steady state but we live responding to

opportunities

7. We assume the system is static until we arrive

8. We don’t keep a record of what’s happened

Questions?

Richard English - Oxfam January 2015