Keeping up with Caltrain Ridership

Adina Levin - Friends of CaltrainFebruary 2014

Keeping up with Caltrain ridership

Who’s in the room?Caltrain’s ridership growthUnderlying trends driving ridership growthHow Caltrain can keep up with growthGrade separationsFunding opportunitiesWhat can we do?

Ridership doubled in last decade

Dot.Com Crash

Baby Bullet

Great Recession

Trains are crowded

Standing room only

Platforms 4th & King

Trains are crowded

Fastest-growing transit in Bay Area

Rapid growth in Palo Alto

Average weekday ridership grew over 30% in last two years

Rank 2012 2013 2014 Change

Palo Alto University

2 4,461 5,469 6,156 38%

Cal Ave 12 1,069 1,294 1,408 31%

High usage by Stanford, Tech Cos

Stanford~25% Caltrain~45% Drivealone

Palantir, SurveyMonkey, RelateIQ

Less than 50% drive and park...

Cars off the freewayIf Caltrain were shut down, it would take 4-5 extra lanes on Highway 101 to carry the extra rush hour traffic.

1,500 cars/hour/lane8,000 pax/peak hour trad peak6,000 pax/peak hour rev. peak

Back to the FutureCaltrain corridor is original transit-oriented development

Cities grew around train

RWC, PA, MV1938

Transit corridor growth

State policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, coordinate transportation & land use

Accommodate 80% of housing, 60% of job growth in < 5% of land with transit access

City policies to reduce tripsTransportation Demand Management● Accommodate more people with less cars,

traffic, parking demand● Transit passes, shuttles, carpool, carshare,

education/marketing● Transportation Management Association

Nonprofit (typically)● Funded by employers, developments, parking● Data, reporting, accountability

Established Developing

Stanford: More people, fewer cars

Changing transportation preferencesCaltrain rider average income $117,000 (could drive if they wanted to)

30% don’t have a car or don’t drive at all (survey didn’t ask who is “car-light”)

Less than 30% drive to station

55% are under 35...

Changing transportation preferencesYounger people driving less…● High school seniors with driver’s licenses declined from

85% to 73% between 1996 and 2010 (AAA)● Average miles driven by 16 to 34 year-olds dropped by

23% between 2001 & 2009 - fewer trips, shorter trips, larger share of non-auto trips

● 75% of millennials expect to live in a place where they do not need a car to get around (Rockefeller Foundation & Transportation for America)

Better access to jobs in San Francisco

Credit: Clem TIllier

Downtown extension to Transbay 202x

Better access to jobs in San Francisco

Central Subway 2019

Connects to Powell Street BART and Muni Metro

Double ridership in the next decade

“We need to double Caltrain ridership from 60,000 to 120,000 daily trips by the next

decade”

Carl Guardino, Silicon Valley Leadership Group

How can Caltrain keep up?

Current peak - 5 car trains, 5 trains per hour = 25

1) Surplus cars from LA Metrolink

6 cars x 5 trains per hour = 30

2) ElectrificationFaster acceleration

More stops in same end to end time

Serve underserved stations - Cal Ave, San Antonio

6 trains per hour x 6 car trains = 36

3) Longer platforms, level boarding8-car trains

Level boarding● faster service● better for mobility-impaired, strollers,

bikes● more reliable

6 trains/hour x 8 cars = 48

4) Increase frequencyBlended system: Caltrain & HSR share tracksNo passing tracks - up to 2 HSR trains per hour With passing tracks - up to 4 HSR trains per hourDon’t need to wait for HSR

8 trains per hour x 8 car trains = 64

How can Caltrain keep up?

Scenario Peak service Peak hour train cars

Today 5x5 25

Metrolink used cars 6x5 30

Electrification 6x6 36

Longer platforms 6x8 48

Increase frequency (w/HSR) 8x8 64

Cost for capacity improvements

Grade separations● More frequent service leads

to more stress at intersections

● 40 at-grade crossings remaining (⅔ separated)

● Palo Alto studying options for Churchill, Meadow, Charleston (not Alma by San Franciscquito Creek)

Grade separation options and costs

Depress tracks in a trench● Trench at 1% grade - $1B● Trench at 2% grade - $500MRoad under tracks● 3 underpasses - ~ $480M● 65 property takes

Grade separation options

Split (part up, part down) like Belmont/San CarlosLess expensive (Belmont/San Carlos cost $170M in 2002)Not being considered in in Palo Alto, policy against any elevation

Grade separation funding optionsSan Mateo County● Bucket of funds in Measure A sales tax● Cities create design, apply for $● Belmont/San Carlos, San Bruno, next call Santa Clara County● Projects picked 20 years in advance?● Will PA be ready with a design by 2016?● Better to use San Mateo “bucket” approach

Grade separation funding opportunityValue Capture● Development in right of way

contributes funding to infrastructure

● San Francisco Transbay developments contributing $400M to cost of Downtown Extension, parks, public space

● Land value in PA and MV could probably generate $$ - if a city chooses this approach

Grade separation funding issues

Palo Alto Policy● No local match allowed● Only external sources of funding● Most expensive options

Funding options2016 Transportation Ballot Measures

San FranciscoSan Mateo County (preliminary)Santa Clara County

2018 - RM3 - renewed bridge tollsState Cap and Trade fundsHigh Speed Rail

Santa Clara County Ballot Measure2014 version that did not go forward$3.5 billion over 30 years

BART to San JoseCaltrainExpressways/FreewaysRoad paving$0 for bus network

Clean slate for 2016 - Envision Silicon Valley

Santa Clara - where did the money go?

Mostly to BART● Cost 2x projections in

2000● Revenue 50% of

projections● 2000 measure said $325M

for electrification, $60M contributed

Ballot measure focus for 2016

Need guarantee for CaltrainPalo Alto and Mountain View have leverage - ⅔ voter approval is difficultPartner with Stanford, Google, LinkedIn, etc.Grade separations - bucket approach

Need 3-county strategy to double ridership

Things you can do1) Engage in local discussions on grade separation design

and policy2) Urge North County cities and employers to insist on

strong Caltrain package in Santa Clara County measure3) Extra credit: Urge Caltrain and 3 counties to work

together to fully fund “double-the-ridership”