#126, Norodom Boulevard, Sangkat Tonle Basak, Khan Chamkarmourn, Phnom Penh.(+855) 23 861 [email protected]
#99, St. Ekareach, Sangkat 4, Preah SihnoukProvince, Cambodia.(+855) 34 934 809 / (+855) 23 993 392
#126, Norodom Boulevard, Sangkat Tonle Basak, Khan Chamkarmourn, Phnom Penh.(+855) 61 91 81 / 11 27 77 83
National Road 6, Phum Khnar Thmei, Sangkat Chreav, Siem Reap City.(+855) 63 96 33 99 / 12 50 63 24
#102, Street No. 3, Group 37, 20 May Village, Sangkat SvayPor, Battambang City, Battambang Province.(+855) 17 959 920 / (+855) 53 953 959
Head Office Bonna Asset Appraisal Department
Siem Reap Branch
Battambang Branch
Sihanoukville Branch
CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015
Presented by Mr. Sung BonnaSeptember 2015
PART I: CAMBODIA ECONOMICS OVERVIEW
Since 1999
DEVELOPMENT PROJECT IN PHNOM PENH
3
Since 1999
FACTOR EFFECT TO REAL ESTATE
4
Economic
Interest Rate
Population
Political
Since 1999
I. POPULATION GROWTH
5
Total Population in Cambodia: 15,394,276
Phnom Penh: 1,445,902
Source: Ministry of Planning
Data as of: April 2015
- Based on this statistic show that in average
the population growth approximate 11%.
- To compare between 2015 and 2010 the
population growth in Cambodia increase
around 10%.
- In Phnom Penh increased around 32% in
2015 compared to 2010 and around 9%
compared to 2008.
11,437,656
13,395,682 14,248,812
15,394,276
999,804 1,327,615 1,095,397 1,445,902
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
1998 2008 2010 2015
Population Growth in Cambodia 1998 to 2015
Cambodia Phnom Penh
Since 1999
II. CAMBODIA GDP GROWTH RATE
6
Source: ADBData as of: September 2015
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 e 2015 e 2016
5.90% 6.00%
7.20% 7.20% 7.30% 7.00% 7.20%
GDP Growth Rate
- In 2015 as an estimation the GDP will be growth approximately 7% again due to
the expansion of garment manufacturing, construction, and services in particular
tourism, finance and real estate services.
Since 1999
III. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI)
7
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Agr
icu
ltu
re
Ind
ust
ry
Serv
ice
Tou
rism
Agr
icu
ltu
re
Ind
ust
ry
Serv
ice
Tou
rism
2014 5months 2015
Capital Investment in Q1 2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
05
10152025303540
Agr
icu
ltu
re
Ind
ust
ry
Serv
ice
Tou
rism
Agr
icu
ltu
re
Ind
ust
ry
Serv
ice
Tou
rism
2014 5months 2015
Number of Project Investment in Q1 2015
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Capital Investment Q1 2015: 2,872.7 million USDNumber of Project Investment: 37 ProjectsSource: CDC
- Regarding to the report from the Council for Development of Cambodia found that FID of first
three months 2015 (approximately 2,872.7 million USD) has increased 5 times compared to the
same period of 2014 (approximately 446 million USD).
Since 1999
IV. NUMBER OF TOURIST ARRIVAL
8
Source: Ministry of Tourism, CambodiaData as of June 2015
- Due to the report from Ministry of Tourism of Cambodia in 2014 number of tourist increase
around 7% compare to 2013 which contribute approximate 2.7 billion USD (Increased 7%) to GDP
of Cambodia.
- For six months of 2015 number of tourists have arrived Cambodia approximate 2.3 million tourists
increased around 4.6% compared the same period in 2014.
- 500,000
1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Jun
-20
15
Number of Tourist Visit in Cambodia
Since 1999
NUMBER OF BUILDING & FLOORS
9
0
100
200
300
400
500
From 5 - 9Floor
From 10 -19 Floor
From 20 -29 Floor
From 30 -39 Floor
From 40Floor up
310
673 5 1
407
187
22 8 4
Number of Building
2014
2015
Source: Ministry Land Management Urban Planning and ConstructionData as of Q1 2015
Average Percentage Changed 63%
- In 2015, the building which approve to
construct from 5-9th floor increase
approximate 30% while the huge
amount of building construction from
20-29th floor increase approximate
600% compare to 2014.
- For 2nd Quarter 2015 the total capital
investment equal 808 million USD.
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Q2
20
15
Mill
ion
s
Capital Investment
Since 1999
AVERAGE CREDIT INTEREST RATE
10
22.7%
18.5%
15.3%16.8%16.1%16.4%
18.4%18.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Million USD
500 Million USD
1,000 Million USD
1,500 Million USD
2,000 Million USD
2,500 Million USD
Loan in Real Estate Sector
Total Loan Loan in Real Estate Sector
18.6%23.1% 22.3% 22.4% 23.1% 22.8%
19.4%
11.8%15.9% 16.3% 15.8%
16.2% 16.7% 16.0% 15.8% 16.4% 17.2% 15.4%11.6% 11.4% 11.5% 11.2%
0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%
Average Credit Interest Rate per Annum
Reil USD
Source: National Bank of CambodiaData as of Jun 2015
- Due to Report from NBC in Cambodia has 36 commercial
banks, 11 Special Banks, 41 MFIs.
- As of June 2015 total loan for real estate sector approximately
2,021.83 million USD which consist of Housing Loan
approximately 699.09 million USD, Construction Loan
approximately 889.41 million USD and related to real estate
activities approximately 433.33 million USD with an average
interest 11.2% per annum for USD currency.
PART II: REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW IN CAMBODIA
Since 1999
OFFICE SPACE
12
Data as of March 2015
- The estimation of total current supply for 2015 approximately 300,000s sqm increased
approximately 15% compared to the same period 2014. If everything stability the total
supply in 2018 will be increase up to 345,000 sqm.
- Average increase annually around 10%.
Sqm
50,000 Sqm
100,000 Sqm
150,000 Sqm
200,000 Sqm
250,000 Sqm
300,000 Sqm
350,000 Sqm
400,000 Sqm
2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018
Total Supply Forcasting Office Supply
Since 1999
• In 2015, the Grade “A” office has been supply around 27% in the market
while Grade “B” supply around 71% and Grade “C” around 2%.
• For 2015 the supply on Office Grade “A” increased around 10% compare to
2014 while Grade “B” declined around 10% and Grade “C” still remain
unchanged.
13
OFFICE SPACE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Total Supply by Grade
2015 2014 2013
Since 1999
OFFICE SPACE (CON’T)
14
$-
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
Grade A Grade B Grade C
$29.50
$17.50
$9.00
$26.50
$15.00
$7.50
Average Rental Price
2015
2014
Comparing Rate between Q1 2015 to Q1 2014:
Grade A: 11% increased
Grade B: 17% Increased
Grade C: 20% increased
Average Percentage Changed 48%
(The price per sqm include VAT but it is not
include management fee)
Data as of March 2015
Since 1999
OFFICE SPACE (CON’T)
15
Data as of March 2015
- To compare between Q1-2015 with Q1-2014 the occupancy rate has been declined about 4%.
- There some reasons for declining occupancy rate:
• Large amount of supply
• Move out to independent building
• Increasing renting price
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q12015
Occupany Rate from 2006-Q1 2015
Occupancy Rate Vacant 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Occupancy Rate)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1-2015 Q1-2014 Q1-2013
Comparing Occupany Rate by Quarter
Occupancy Rate Vacant
Since 1999
RETAIL
16
Data as of March 2015
- Total Supply 2015: Approximately 370,000 sqm
- Total Supply 2014: Approximately 350,000 sqm
- Average Percentage approximate 5% increased
- The total supply also included the Constructed building
around 14 retail.
- Just an estimation in 2018 the retail will increase
approximate 900,000sqm with projects 27 projects
Sqm
200,000 Sqm
400,000 Sqm
600,000 Sqm
800,000 Sqm
1,000,000 Sqm
2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018
Forcasting Total Supply of Retailby Year
Since 1999
RETAIL (CON’T)
17
Data as of March 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Min Average Max
Rental Price for Rentail
2015 2014
- Based on research study show that rental fee has been declined in average 20% due to large
amount of supply as well as the price competition between new comer and existing retail on the
market.
- The market price of renting has been change at the low level in order to attract more tenants.
- However, in range of rental fee still get the high gap between low price and high price in to 2015.
Min 7$ 20$ 16$ 30$
Average 12$ 60$ 30$ 55$
Max 18$ 100$ 43$ 90$
Range Price 2015 Range Price 2014
(The rental fee will be change based on the location of the store and class of retail)
Since 1999
RETAIL (CON’T)
18
Data as of March 2015
• Occupancy rate 74% in 2015 while in 2014 Occupancy
rate 80% declined around 6%
• There are some factors made occupancy rate to be
declined such as:
- Increasing Supply on the Market
- People expected on the quality of product due to living
standard growth.
- Customers need modernization of facilities and good
design.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2015 2014 2013
Occupancy Rate of Retail in Phnom Penh
Occupancy Rate Vacant
Since 1999
APARTMENT
19
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%
Ch
amka
mo
rn
Dau
n P
enh
Tou
l Ko
rk
7 M
akar
a
Ch
roy
Ch
on
g…
Sen
So
k
Mea
n C
hey
Ru
ssey
Keo
Dan
gko
r
Supply by Location
2015
2014
- Year 2015, Total Supply 5,500 Units
- Year 2014, Total Supply 4,400 Units
- Year 2013, Total Supply 3,600 Units
Average Annually Percentage Changed 20%
- Khan Chamkarmon is a leading supply among other
Khan in Phnom Penh around 50% of total supply.
Data as of June 2015
Units
1,000 Units
2,000 Units
3,000 Units
4,000 Units
5,000 Units
6,000 Units
2015 2014 2013
Total Supply Apartment In Phnom Penh by Year
Since 1999
APARTMENT (CON’T)
20
$-
$1,000.00
$2,000.00
$3,000.00
$4,000.00
$5,000.00
Studio 1 Bed 2 Beds 3 Beds Penthouse
Grade A $1,450.00 $1,625.00 $2,175.00 $2,500.00 $5,000.00
Grade B $1,050.00 $1,150.00 $1,625.00 $1,750.00 $2,350.00
Grade C $525.00 $650.00 $1,050.00 $1,600.00 $1,650.00
Average Rental Price in 2015
Grade A
Grade B
Grade C
$- $500.00
$1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 $3,500.00 $4,000.00 $4,500.00 $5,000.00
Studio 1 Bed 2 Beds 3 Beds Penthouse
Grade A $1,450.00 $1,625.00 $2,200.00 $2,750.00 $4,600.00
Grade B $1,050.00 $1,325.00 $1,750.00 $2,550.00 $2,350.00
Grade C $512.00 $875.00 $750.00 $1,250.00 $1,750.00
Average Rental Price in 2014
Grade A
Grade B
Grade C
Data as of June 2015
• To compared rental price between 2015
with 2014 it has been declined around
3%.
• For Grade “A” rental price still remain
unchanged in average.
• For Grade “B” rental price has declined
around 10% while Grade “C” increased
around 8%.
• Factor to make rental fee declined:
o Increasing amount of supply
o More competitive with Condominium
after completed construction.
o Price competition among the market.
Since 1999
APARTMENT (CON’T)
21
Data as of June 2015
2015Occupancy rate 92%
2014 Occupancy rate 93%
Average Percentage Changed -1%.
Anyways for these three consecutive year
the occupancies rate of Apartment still 90%
to 95%
92% 93% 95%
8% 7% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q2-2014 Q2-2015 Q2-2013
Occupancy Rate of Apartment
Occupancy Rate Vacancy
Since 1999
• Due to the large amount of starting construction project in 2014 approximately 14 projects, for
2015 approximate 22 projects has been launched to sale.
• Based on this starting in average for one project spent around 3 to 4years to completed. It effect
to the amount of the supply in 2017 and 2018 around 3 times to compare with current amount
of supply (approximate 3,600 units in 2015).
• In average increasing by year around 50% for annually. In 2018 condominium increase up to
15,000 units.
22
CONDOMINIUM
Projects
10 Projects
20 Projects
30 Projects
40 Projects
50 Projects
60 Projects
2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018
Number of Completed Condominium Project by Year
Units
5,000 Units
10,000 Units
15,000 Units
20,000 Units
2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018
Number of Completed Condominium Project by Units
Since 1999
CONDOMINIUM
23
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
Project Development by Location
2015
2014
- Due to our observation found that Khan Chamkarmon and Toul Kor is the leading
area in condominium development follow by Khan Chroy Chang Va and Sen Sok.
Data as of June 2015
Since 1999
CONDOMINIUM (CON’T)
24
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Project Completed by Grade
2015
2015
Grade A: 22% Increased
Grade B: -26% Decreased
Grade C: 61% increased
Average Percentage Changed 57%
(Compared between 2015 and 2014)
Data as of June 2015
Since 1999
CONDOMINIUM (CON’T)
25
$-
$500.00
$1,000.00
$1,500.00
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
$3,000.00
Selling Price in Sqm for CBD Area
2015
2014
$-
$200.00
$400.00
$600.00
$800.00
$1,000.00
$1,200.00
$1,400.00
$1,600.00
$1,800.00
Sen Sok ChroyChong Var
MeanChey
ChbarAmpov
Dang Kor
Selling Price in Sqm for Outskirt Area
2015
2014
Data as of June 2015
Average Market Price for Primary Market:
- CBD: Min: $1,200/sqm, Max: $4,100/sqm,
Average $2,400/sqm
- Outskirt: Min $800/sqm, Max: $2,500/sqm,
Average: $1,300/sqm
(Compared between 2015 and 2014)
Since 1999
CONDOMINIUM (CON’T)
26
Average Percentage Changed -3%
Data as of June 2015
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2015 2014 2013
Sale Result on Condominium Project
Sale Result Vacant
- Based on the interview with sellers of the projects found that sale result of the project still
remaining good it approximately 69% in 2015 sold out it has been declined around 3%
compared to the same period 2014.
- Factor make sale result good:
Regulation of Cambodia allow foreigner to buy condominium from the fist floor up.
Low interest and supporting loan from developers and some banks.
High expectation of advantage from ASEAN Economic Integration for Cambodia.
Very good on method of payment.
Since 1999
• Regarding to survey found that in average for these 2 years number of
projects increase around 20% per year.
• By number of houses increased in average around 30% for these 2 years.
• The total supply of 2015 is approximately 47,000 houses increased
approximate 15% compare to 2014 approximate 41,000 houses.
27
BOREY
108 Projects
134 Projects
150 Projects
Projects
20 Projects
40 Projects
60 Projects
80 Projects
100 Projects
120 Projects
140 Projects
160 Projects
2013 2014 2015
Number of Borey Projects
27,000 Houses
41,000 Houses
47,000 Houses
Houses
10,000 Houses
20,000 Houses
30,000 Houses
40,000 Houses
50,000 Houses
2013 2014 2015
Number of House in Borey Project
Since 1999
BOREY
28
Data as of September 2015
Borey is a type of compound flat or villa which provide good securities and other infrastructures.
• Outskirt city is the most popular to construct Borey.
• Khan Sen Sok and Russey Keo still the leading location for construction
Borey for comparing market supply by location.
• Around 25% construct in Sen Sok and 18% in Russey Keo, 16% in Chbar
Ampov in 2015.
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%
Borey Project Supply by Khan
2015 2014 2013
Since 1999
BOREY (CON’T)
29
Data as of September 2015
2015: 81% Sold Out
2014: 77% Sold Out
2013: 75% Sold Out
Average Percentage Changed 5% Increased
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2013 2014 2015
Sale Result on Borey
Sold Out Vacant
Since 1999
LAND MARKET PRICE
30
- In 2014, the land market price in average for the whole year increase approximately
5% to 10% if we compare from quarter to quarter.
- Certainly the land market price in the 1st quarter 2015 approximately increased about
30% for Commercial and 45% for Residential compared to the same period of 2014.
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Land Market Price in Phnom Penh for Q1 &Q2 2015
Commercial Residential
Since 1999
LAND MARKET PRICE (CONT’)
31
⁻ In the first quarter 2015 compared to the end of 2014 the land market price approximately increase in average 5% and it seem to be stable in the 2nd quarter 2015 (about 2% to 3% increased).
$-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015
Land Market Price in Phnom Penh for Q1 &Q2 2015
Commercial Residential
Since 1999
32
Since 1999
33
Since 1999
34
Since 1999
35
សមូអរគុណ!