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#126, Norodom Boulevard, Sangkat Tonle Basak, Khan Chamkarmourn, Phnom Penh. (+855) 23 861 999 [email protected] www.bonnarealty.com.kh #99, St. Ekareach, Sangkat 4, Preah Sihnouk Province, Cambodia. (+855) 34 934 809 / (+855) 23 993 392 #126, Norodom Boulevard, Sangkat Tonle Basak, Khan Chamkarmourn, Phnom Penh. (+855) 61 91 81 / 11 27 77 83 National Road 6, Phum Khnar Thmei, Sangkat Chreav, Siem Reap City. (+855) 63 96 33 99 / 12 50 63 24 #102, Street No. 3, Group 37, 20 May Village, Sangkat Svay Por, Battambang City, Battambang Province. (+855) 17 959 920 / (+855) 53 953 959 Head Office Bonna Asset Appraisal Department Siem Reap Branch Battambang Branch Sihanoukville Branch CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015 Presented by Mr. Sung Bonna September 2015
Transcript
Page 1: CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015tbcccambodia.org/images/upload/useful_information/attach_file/20-S… · 20/09/2016  · Phnom Penh: 1,445,902 Source: Ministry of Planning Data as of:

#126, Norodom Boulevard, Sangkat Tonle Basak, Khan Chamkarmourn, Phnom Penh.(+855) 23 861 [email protected]

#99, St. Ekareach, Sangkat 4, Preah SihnoukProvince, Cambodia.(+855) 34 934 809 / (+855) 23 993 392

#126, Norodom Boulevard, Sangkat Tonle Basak, Khan Chamkarmourn, Phnom Penh.(+855) 61 91 81 / 11 27 77 83

National Road 6, Phum Khnar Thmei, Sangkat Chreav, Siem Reap City.(+855) 63 96 33 99 / 12 50 63 24

#102, Street No. 3, Group 37, 20 May Village, Sangkat SvayPor, Battambang City, Battambang Province.(+855) 17 959 920 / (+855) 53 953 959

Head Office Bonna Asset Appraisal Department

Siem Reap Branch

Battambang Branch

Sihanoukville Branch

CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015

Presented by Mr. Sung BonnaSeptember 2015

Page 2: CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015tbcccambodia.org/images/upload/useful_information/attach_file/20-S… · 20/09/2016  · Phnom Penh: 1,445,902 Source: Ministry of Planning Data as of:

PART I: CAMBODIA ECONOMICS OVERVIEW

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Since 1999

DEVELOPMENT PROJECT IN PHNOM PENH

3

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Since 1999

FACTOR EFFECT TO REAL ESTATE

4

Economic

Interest Rate

Population

Political

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Since 1999

I. POPULATION GROWTH

5

Total Population in Cambodia: 15,394,276

Phnom Penh: 1,445,902

Source: Ministry of Planning

Data as of: April 2015

- Based on this statistic show that in average

the population growth approximate 11%.

- To compare between 2015 and 2010 the

population growth in Cambodia increase

around 10%.

- In Phnom Penh increased around 32% in

2015 compared to 2010 and around 9%

compared to 2008.

11,437,656

13,395,682 14,248,812

15,394,276

999,804 1,327,615 1,095,397 1,445,902

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

1998 2008 2010 2015

Population Growth in Cambodia 1998 to 2015

Cambodia Phnom Penh

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Since 1999

II. CAMBODIA GDP GROWTH RATE

6

Source: ADBData as of: September 2015

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 e 2015 e 2016

5.90% 6.00%

7.20% 7.20% 7.30% 7.00% 7.20%

GDP Growth Rate

- In 2015 as an estimation the GDP will be growth approximately 7% again due to

the expansion of garment manufacturing, construction, and services in particular

tourism, finance and real estate services.

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Since 1999

III. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI)

7

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Agr

icu

ltu

re

Ind

ust

ry

Serv

ice

Tou

rism

Agr

icu

ltu

re

Ind

ust

ry

Serv

ice

Tou

rism

2014 5months 2015

Capital Investment in Q1 2015

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

05

10152025303540

Agr

icu

ltu

re

Ind

ust

ry

Serv

ice

Tou

rism

Agr

icu

ltu

re

Ind

ust

ry

Serv

ice

Tou

rism

2014 5months 2015

Number of Project Investment in Q1 2015

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Capital Investment Q1 2015: 2,872.7 million USDNumber of Project Investment: 37 ProjectsSource: CDC

- Regarding to the report from the Council for Development of Cambodia found that FID of first

three months 2015 (approximately 2,872.7 million USD) has increased 5 times compared to the

same period of 2014 (approximately 446 million USD).

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Since 1999

IV. NUMBER OF TOURIST ARRIVAL

8

Source: Ministry of Tourism, CambodiaData as of June 2015

- Due to the report from Ministry of Tourism of Cambodia in 2014 number of tourist increase

around 7% compare to 2013 which contribute approximate 2.7 billion USD (Increased 7%) to GDP

of Cambodia.

- For six months of 2015 number of tourists have arrived Cambodia approximate 2.3 million tourists

increased around 4.6% compared the same period in 2014.

- 500,000

1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Jun

-20

15

Number of Tourist Visit in Cambodia

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Since 1999

NUMBER OF BUILDING & FLOORS

9

0

100

200

300

400

500

From 5 - 9Floor

From 10 -19 Floor

From 20 -29 Floor

From 30 -39 Floor

From 40Floor up

310

673 5 1

407

187

22 8 4

Number of Building

2014

2015

Source: Ministry Land Management Urban Planning and ConstructionData as of Q1 2015

Average Percentage Changed 63%

- In 2015, the building which approve to

construct from 5-9th floor increase

approximate 30% while the huge

amount of building construction from

20-29th floor increase approximate

600% compare to 2014.

- For 2nd Quarter 2015 the total capital

investment equal 808 million USD.

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Q2

20

15

Mill

ion

s

Capital Investment

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Since 1999

AVERAGE CREDIT INTEREST RATE

10

22.7%

18.5%

15.3%16.8%16.1%16.4%

18.4%18.9%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Million USD

500 Million USD

1,000 Million USD

1,500 Million USD

2,000 Million USD

2,500 Million USD

Loan in Real Estate Sector

Total Loan Loan in Real Estate Sector

18.6%23.1% 22.3% 22.4% 23.1% 22.8%

19.4%

11.8%15.9% 16.3% 15.8%

16.2% 16.7% 16.0% 15.8% 16.4% 17.2% 15.4%11.6% 11.4% 11.5% 11.2%

0.0%5.0%

10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%

Average Credit Interest Rate per Annum

Reil USD

Source: National Bank of CambodiaData as of Jun 2015

- Due to Report from NBC in Cambodia has 36 commercial

banks, 11 Special Banks, 41 MFIs.

- As of June 2015 total loan for real estate sector approximately

2,021.83 million USD which consist of Housing Loan

approximately 699.09 million USD, Construction Loan

approximately 889.41 million USD and related to real estate

activities approximately 433.33 million USD with an average

interest 11.2% per annum for USD currency.

Page 11: CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015tbcccambodia.org/images/upload/useful_information/attach_file/20-S… · 20/09/2016  · Phnom Penh: 1,445,902 Source: Ministry of Planning Data as of:

PART II: REAL ESTATE OVERVIEW IN CAMBODIA

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Since 1999

OFFICE SPACE

12

Data as of March 2015

- The estimation of total current supply for 2015 approximately 300,000s sqm increased

approximately 15% compared to the same period 2014. If everything stability the total

supply in 2018 will be increase up to 345,000 sqm.

- Average increase annually around 10%.

Sqm

50,000 Sqm

100,000 Sqm

150,000 Sqm

200,000 Sqm

250,000 Sqm

300,000 Sqm

350,000 Sqm

400,000 Sqm

2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018

Total Supply Forcasting Office Supply

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Since 1999

• In 2015, the Grade “A” office has been supply around 27% in the market

while Grade “B” supply around 71% and Grade “C” around 2%.

• For 2015 the supply on Office Grade “A” increased around 10% compare to

2014 while Grade “B” declined around 10% and Grade “C” still remain

unchanged.

13

OFFICE SPACE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Grade A Grade B Grade C

Total Supply by Grade

2015 2014 2013

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Since 1999

OFFICE SPACE (CON’T)

14

$-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

Grade A Grade B Grade C

$29.50

$17.50

$9.00

$26.50

$15.00

$7.50

Average Rental Price

2015

2014

Comparing Rate between Q1 2015 to Q1 2014:

Grade A: 11% increased

Grade B: 17% Increased

Grade C: 20% increased

Average Percentage Changed 48%

(The price per sqm include VAT but it is not

include management fee)

Data as of March 2015

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Since 1999

OFFICE SPACE (CON’T)

15

Data as of March 2015

- To compare between Q1-2015 with Q1-2014 the occupancy rate has been declined about 4%.

- There some reasons for declining occupancy rate:

• Large amount of supply

• Move out to independent building

• Increasing renting price

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q12015

Occupany Rate from 2006-Q1 2015

Occupancy Rate Vacant 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Occupancy Rate)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1-2015 Q1-2014 Q1-2013

Comparing Occupany Rate by Quarter

Occupancy Rate Vacant

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Since 1999

RETAIL

16

Data as of March 2015

- Total Supply 2015: Approximately 370,000 sqm

- Total Supply 2014: Approximately 350,000 sqm

- Average Percentage approximate 5% increased

- The total supply also included the Constructed building

around 14 retail.

- Just an estimation in 2018 the retail will increase

approximate 900,000sqm with projects 27 projects

Sqm

200,000 Sqm

400,000 Sqm

600,000 Sqm

800,000 Sqm

1,000,000 Sqm

2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018

Forcasting Total Supply of Retailby Year

Page 17: CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015tbcccambodia.org/images/upload/useful_information/attach_file/20-S… · 20/09/2016  · Phnom Penh: 1,445,902 Source: Ministry of Planning Data as of:

Since 1999

RETAIL (CON’T)

17

Data as of March 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Min Average Max

Rental Price for Rentail

2015 2014

- Based on research study show that rental fee has been declined in average 20% due to large

amount of supply as well as the price competition between new comer and existing retail on the

market.

- The market price of renting has been change at the low level in order to attract more tenants.

- However, in range of rental fee still get the high gap between low price and high price in to 2015.

Min 7$ 20$ 16$ 30$

Average 12$ 60$ 30$ 55$

Max 18$ 100$ 43$ 90$

Range Price 2015 Range Price 2014

(The rental fee will be change based on the location of the store and class of retail)

Page 18: CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015tbcccambodia.org/images/upload/useful_information/attach_file/20-S… · 20/09/2016  · Phnom Penh: 1,445,902 Source: Ministry of Planning Data as of:

Since 1999

RETAIL (CON’T)

18

Data as of March 2015

• Occupancy rate 74% in 2015 while in 2014 Occupancy

rate 80% declined around 6%

• There are some factors made occupancy rate to be

declined such as:

- Increasing Supply on the Market

- People expected on the quality of product due to living

standard growth.

- Customers need modernization of facilities and good

design.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2015 2014 2013

Occupancy Rate of Retail in Phnom Penh

Occupancy Rate Vacant

Page 19: CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015tbcccambodia.org/images/upload/useful_information/attach_file/20-S… · 20/09/2016  · Phnom Penh: 1,445,902 Source: Ministry of Planning Data as of:

Since 1999

APARTMENT

19

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Ch

amka

mo

rn

Dau

n P

enh

Tou

l Ko

rk

7 M

akar

a

Ch

roy

Ch

on

g…

Sen

So

k

Mea

n C

hey

Ru

ssey

Keo

Dan

gko

r

Supply by Location

2015

2014

- Year 2015, Total Supply 5,500 Units

- Year 2014, Total Supply 4,400 Units

- Year 2013, Total Supply 3,600 Units

Average Annually Percentage Changed 20%

- Khan Chamkarmon is a leading supply among other

Khan in Phnom Penh around 50% of total supply.

Data as of June 2015

Units

1,000 Units

2,000 Units

3,000 Units

4,000 Units

5,000 Units

6,000 Units

2015 2014 2013

Total Supply Apartment In Phnom Penh by Year

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Since 1999

APARTMENT (CON’T)

20

$-

$1,000.00

$2,000.00

$3,000.00

$4,000.00

$5,000.00

Studio 1 Bed 2 Beds 3 Beds Penthouse

Grade A $1,450.00 $1,625.00 $2,175.00 $2,500.00 $5,000.00

Grade B $1,050.00 $1,150.00 $1,625.00 $1,750.00 $2,350.00

Grade C $525.00 $650.00 $1,050.00 $1,600.00 $1,650.00

Average Rental Price in 2015

Grade A

Grade B

Grade C

$- $500.00

$1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 $3,500.00 $4,000.00 $4,500.00 $5,000.00

Studio 1 Bed 2 Beds 3 Beds Penthouse

Grade A $1,450.00 $1,625.00 $2,200.00 $2,750.00 $4,600.00

Grade B $1,050.00 $1,325.00 $1,750.00 $2,550.00 $2,350.00

Grade C $512.00 $875.00 $750.00 $1,250.00 $1,750.00

Average Rental Price in 2014

Grade A

Grade B

Grade C

Data as of June 2015

• To compared rental price between 2015

with 2014 it has been declined around

3%.

• For Grade “A” rental price still remain

unchanged in average.

• For Grade “B” rental price has declined

around 10% while Grade “C” increased

around 8%.

• Factor to make rental fee declined:

o Increasing amount of supply

o More competitive with Condominium

after completed construction.

o Price competition among the market.

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Since 1999

APARTMENT (CON’T)

21

Data as of June 2015

2015Occupancy rate 92%

2014 Occupancy rate 93%

Average Percentage Changed -1%.

Anyways for these three consecutive year

the occupancies rate of Apartment still 90%

to 95%

92% 93% 95%

8% 7% 5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q2-2014 Q2-2015 Q2-2013

Occupancy Rate of Apartment

Occupancy Rate Vacancy

Page 22: CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015tbcccambodia.org/images/upload/useful_information/attach_file/20-S… · 20/09/2016  · Phnom Penh: 1,445,902 Source: Ministry of Planning Data as of:

Since 1999

• Due to the large amount of starting construction project in 2014 approximately 14 projects, for

2015 approximate 22 projects has been launched to sale.

• Based on this starting in average for one project spent around 3 to 4years to completed. It effect

to the amount of the supply in 2017 and 2018 around 3 times to compare with current amount

of supply (approximate 3,600 units in 2015).

• In average increasing by year around 50% for annually. In 2018 condominium increase up to

15,000 units.

22

CONDOMINIUM

Projects

10 Projects

20 Projects

30 Projects

40 Projects

50 Projects

60 Projects

2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018

Number of Completed Condominium Project by Year

Units

5,000 Units

10,000 Units

15,000 Units

20,000 Units

2013 2014 2015 e2016 e2017 e2018

Number of Completed Condominium Project by Units

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Since 1999

CONDOMINIUM

23

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

Project Development by Location

2015

2014

- Due to our observation found that Khan Chamkarmon and Toul Kor is the leading

area in condominium development follow by Khan Chroy Chang Va and Sen Sok.

Data as of June 2015

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Since 1999

CONDOMINIUM (CON’T)

24

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Grade A Grade B Grade C

Project Completed by Grade

2015

2015

Grade A: 22% Increased

Grade B: -26% Decreased

Grade C: 61% increased

Average Percentage Changed 57%

(Compared between 2015 and 2014)

Data as of June 2015

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Since 1999

CONDOMINIUM (CON’T)

25

$-

$500.00

$1,000.00

$1,500.00

$2,000.00

$2,500.00

$3,000.00

Selling Price in Sqm for CBD Area

2015

2014

$-

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

$1,400.00

$1,600.00

$1,800.00

Sen Sok ChroyChong Var

MeanChey

ChbarAmpov

Dang Kor

Selling Price in Sqm for Outskirt Area

2015

2014

Data as of June 2015

Average Market Price for Primary Market:

- CBD: Min: $1,200/sqm, Max: $4,100/sqm,

Average $2,400/sqm

- Outskirt: Min $800/sqm, Max: $2,500/sqm,

Average: $1,300/sqm

(Compared between 2015 and 2014)

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Since 1999

CONDOMINIUM (CON’T)

26

Average Percentage Changed -3%

Data as of June 2015

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2015 2014 2013

Sale Result on Condominium Project

Sale Result Vacant

- Based on the interview with sellers of the projects found that sale result of the project still

remaining good it approximately 69% in 2015 sold out it has been declined around 3%

compared to the same period 2014.

- Factor make sale result good:

Regulation of Cambodia allow foreigner to buy condominium from the fist floor up.

Low interest and supporting loan from developers and some banks.

High expectation of advantage from ASEAN Economic Integration for Cambodia.

Very good on method of payment.

Page 27: CAMBODIA COUNTRY REPORT 2015tbcccambodia.org/images/upload/useful_information/attach_file/20-S… · 20/09/2016  · Phnom Penh: 1,445,902 Source: Ministry of Planning Data as of:

Since 1999

• Regarding to survey found that in average for these 2 years number of

projects increase around 20% per year.

• By number of houses increased in average around 30% for these 2 years.

• The total supply of 2015 is approximately 47,000 houses increased

approximate 15% compare to 2014 approximate 41,000 houses.

27

BOREY

108 Projects

134 Projects

150 Projects

Projects

20 Projects

40 Projects

60 Projects

80 Projects

100 Projects

120 Projects

140 Projects

160 Projects

2013 2014 2015

Number of Borey Projects

27,000 Houses

41,000 Houses

47,000 Houses

Houses

10,000 Houses

20,000 Houses

30,000 Houses

40,000 Houses

50,000 Houses

2013 2014 2015

Number of House in Borey Project

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Since 1999

BOREY

28

Data as of September 2015

Borey is a type of compound flat or villa which provide good securities and other infrastructures.

• Outskirt city is the most popular to construct Borey.

• Khan Sen Sok and Russey Keo still the leading location for construction

Borey for comparing market supply by location.

• Around 25% construct in Sen Sok and 18% in Russey Keo, 16% in Chbar

Ampov in 2015.

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%

Borey Project Supply by Khan

2015 2014 2013

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Since 1999

BOREY (CON’T)

29

Data as of September 2015

2015: 81% Sold Out

2014: 77% Sold Out

2013: 75% Sold Out

Average Percentage Changed 5% Increased

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2013 2014 2015

Sale Result on Borey

Sold Out Vacant

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Since 1999

LAND MARKET PRICE

30

- In 2014, the land market price in average for the whole year increase approximately

5% to 10% if we compare from quarter to quarter.

- Certainly the land market price in the 1st quarter 2015 approximately increased about

30% for Commercial and 45% for Residential compared to the same period of 2014.

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Land Market Price in Phnom Penh for Q1 &Q2 2015

Commercial Residential

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Since 1999

LAND MARKET PRICE (CONT’)

31

⁻ In the first quarter 2015 compared to the end of 2014 the land market price approximately increase in average 5% and it seem to be stable in the 2nd quarter 2015 (about 2% to 3% increased).

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2014 2015

Land Market Price in Phnom Penh for Q1 &Q2 2015

Commercial Residential

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Since 1999

32

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Since 1999

33

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Since 1999

34

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Since 1999

35

សមូអរគុណ!


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