Cambridge Future Cities Conference 2016 Conference Summary Report

Department of Land Economy

Cambridge Future Cities Conference 2016 The conference is part of broader initiative bringing together academic research and commercial and public sector expertise on issues around how to design, develop, govern and thrive in cities. The initiative is led by the Department of Land Economy at the University of Cambridge and aims to build inter-disciplinary collaboration amongst both academics and practitioners. The goals are similar to the mission of the Urban Land Institute (ULI) and this write up has been prepared in partnership with ULI. The conference had four main sessions:

- Technology and its impact - How we live together in Cities - Upwards or outwards/high-rise living - Risk, resilience and response.

Professor Edward Ng of CUHK gave a keynote address on high density cities. The conference also included the work of eight PhD researchers at Cambridge – winners of Future Cities’ prizes under the Cambridge Future Cities initiative. The initiative is supported by CapCo plc. The organising committee is chaired by Nick Mansley of the Real Estate Research Centre in the Department of Land Economy and a member of the ULI UK executive.

Technology and its Impact Chair: Dr Danilo Igliori

University of Sao Paulo and DataZAP, Real Estate Intelligence

How technology and innovation will shape cities in the future.

Dr Igliori linked technology with economics and explained whole the whole innovation spectrum is relevant from the more tangible

and scientific engineering side through architecture through to the softer, social science side, including urban policy. He highlighted the difference between people-based and place-based policies, emphasizing the need for a move towards increasing the attention on people-based policies, thinking more about how a space is used for people.

Danilo explained the ever present need to consider migration from a much broader perspective, and the effect that it can have upon cities in the future. In particular, he highlighted the role of cities as attractors of innovators and as places where innovation takes place. They play a key role in (i) sharing - sharing facilities and sharing risks e.g. Airbnb and Ways and (ii) matching mechanisms - matching and meeting individuals to collaborate with or learn from etc. as well as learning mechanisms – a key innovation channel. Danilo concluded his introduction by explaining that, in light of these factors, ‘the topic of cities was never so important’.

Adam Locke

The Engineering Excellence Group at Laing O’Rourke

Engineering Smarter for City Futures

Adam began by emphasizing his agreement that the most important factor when looking at a city is the people who live in it - the engineering community’s job to make a city the best place for its people, and for their culture to prosper. He then asked – “Why is engineering technology so important to the future of cities?” The answer to this firstly lay in the issues of low productivity and profitability in the construction industry, and skills gap currently facing the industry. Adam explained that smart technology, ranging from data collection and analytics to delivery optimization, allowed benefits such as asset availability and long term asset performance as well as increasing customer delight and

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loyalty. Technology allows us to “deliver great buildings that people enjoy and understand”. Adam highlighted the key challenge of keeping the infrastructure that is currently in place functioning whilst adding new technology and infrastructure e.g. Crossrail. He highlighted “Construction 2025” and the need to think out of the box and approach things in a different way – as Albert Einstein said “Insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.”

Adam then moved on to explain how, when proceeding with the advancement of engineering in cities, we must look to other industries, analysing the productivity of processes and systems that are already in place and proven successful, and borrowing aspects of these to adapt for civil and building engineering e.g. Aerospace and Automotive industries, including Rolls Royce’s diagnostic technology. Adam highlighted how engineers must strive for certainty for Health and Safety, Sustainability, Cost, Time and Quality.

The presentation then began to move onto manufacturing technology and its implications, leading on from the idea of improving design for manufacture within construction by ‘borrowing’ from other industries. Laing O’Rourke is placing increasing focus upon offsite manufacture of construction components and Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DfMA). Adam explained that by utilizing pre-cast parts, parts can be manufactured in a much more controlled way in an offsite facility. Another key benefit to offsite manufacture discussed was that of addressing some of the dislocation found between cities and regions since this process would spread some of the wealth, by having the manufacturing capability and production out in the regions rather than on site in city centres.

One of the examples used to demonstrate this approach to construction projects and how DfMA can tackle problems was The Francis Crick building (pictured) which includes a very

complicated basement. Another example is that of Crossrail, where pre-manufacture of parts combined with a careful plan for putting them in place allowed the job of 46 people on site to be reduced to only 7 people, alongside increasing the reliability of timescale in delivery. Looking ahead, Laing O’Rourke are launching a new Advanced Manufacturing Facility in a consortium arrangement with 21 partners, developing offsite manufacture and supply chains in a bid to tackle the housing gap in the UK.1 The programme involves creating a volumetric housing solution to fit any site whilst also reaping the benefits of standardization to drive efficiency.

Adam’s closing thoughts were focussed on the opportunities and hopes for the coming years, with technology offering many opportunities to improve design, engagement, efficiency, and reduce costs, disruption and carbon impacts. He said that “People want places they can be proud of and will inspire them” and the underlying question in achieving this is how to make the best of the technology at our fingertips.

The Crick Building, Source: www.crick.ac.uk

1 http://www.laingorourke.com/engineering-the-future/advanced-manufacturing-supply-chain-initiative.aspx

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Cities Research – Cambridge PhD Presentations Brian Chiang (Land Economy)

Multi-channel Retail

Brian is researching the impact of multi-channel retailing on town centres and retail spaces to identify ways in which it could be accommodated and reintegrated into digital and spatial policies. Since e-commerce is a threat to retail centres viability, Brian is researching reasons why some retail centres function better than others. Other questions include ‘what does the retail space/town centre play in an urban amenity role and ‘what is the relationship between urban amenity and e-retailing’. The way people shop is being transformed and triggered what Ching identifies as ‘spatial consumption in the information age’, characterised by costumers seeking consumption of the experience of shopping itself and not necessarily of specific products, which can occur via a myriad of channels, physical or not (TV, internet, radio, print). The research reinforces the importance of understanding these trends regarding physical space, digital strategies and logistics in order to develop integrated digital and spatial policies. Some of the complexities are outlined in the diagram below.

Source: Shaner & Yadav (2010)

Brian is interested in contacts, case studies and quantative date to support his research.

Simon James Price (Geology)

Testing 3D models of above and below ground

Simon is looking into how to optimise the use of the ground beneath our cities to support urban sustainability. Cities can place huge strain on the sub-surface with piles and deep basements needing to be accommodated alongside transport infrastructure, water and other utilities, storage and potentially groundwater, heat and mineral extraction. Managing the sub-surface and the interaction between the many structures underground can play a key role in sustainable cities and the shape of cities. Simons’ research uses 3D modelling of below and above ground to test possibilities and raise awareness of the overall construction of cities and ways to support and manage the underground structure for innovative urban development.

Simon is keen to hear more about case studies using subsurface space in urban planning.

Source: Simon Price FCC Presentation (2016)

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Hannah Baker (Engineering)

Demolish / retain, heritage’s role in place making

Hannah is looking at buildings on occupied brownfield sites and comparing the benefits between building anew and adapting them to fit the purpose of developers. Her aim is to contribute to an informed decision making process with great clarity about the framework and the benefits and issues of both paths. As cities adapt to current needs, sustainability is a key consideration which tends to retaining and adapting current buildings and, moreover supports protection of urban heritage. On the other hand, negative points of adaptation are firstly, the need for more investment in comparison to building anew and, in specific cases, the inability to fit it to a new purpose, being both factors which constrain the flexibility of choice (i.e. scientific labs, which requires very specific technology and infrastructure). Altogether, benefits and problems with adapting new buildings must be considered from case to case.

Hannah is keen to hear more about issues being faced in the decision-making process, make new contacts and have additional case study suggestions.

Source: Hannah Baker FCC Presentation (2016)

Mingfei Ma (Geography)

The future of Urban Greenbelts

Mingfei is researching the economic and wellbeing impact and costs of greenbelts – particularly important given their possible impact on constraining urban growth Her question is: ‘which alternative green space configurations perform better in terms of economic well-being and spatial costs?’ Concentric rings, green belts and green wedges offer different models. Green wedges (with permeable built areas on greenbelts) appear the best alternative e.g. Copenhagen – they impact positively on economic outcomes and transport choice. Adaptation from currently inflexible greenbelts will support a more successful urbanisation over the next twenty years.

Mingfei is interested in talking to anyone about greenbelts!

Source: Ming FCC Presentation (2016)

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Kristen MacAskill (Engineering)

Disaster risk management and community engagement

Kristen’s research investigates the decision-making behind rebuilding public infrastructure networks in post-disaster areas. She has used the post-earthquake reconstruction in Christchurch, New Zealand in 2010 and 2011 as a case study (she worked there as an engineer in 2012). Kristen’s research question is ‘What is an appropriate approach for engaging the community?’ Kristen presented 4 themes for her research, which were: funding mechanisms, organisational arrangements, iteration in planning& design and, most importantly, community interest.

She highlighted that reconstruction projects such as this can be seen as a silver lining to all the devastation that has occurred, a way of rebuilding the city in a new and improved way that would otherwise not be possible. However, this stands against a pressure, which often occurs, to rebuild quickly to meet the needs of a displaced population.

Kristen has been looking into how community interest and engagement influenced how infrastructure in Christchurch was rebuilt. She has focussed on specific projects, looking at, for example, coastal rock protection on Christchurch’s coastline, as well as the “Share an Idea” campaign held in Christchurch, which addressed what the city would look like in the future.

Source: “Share an idea” campaign (from the draft Central City Plan, 2011)

She highlighted that information on rebuilding, without the opportunity for input into the process by the community, often created resistance. In addition, Kristen found that there was often an expectation for fast paced recovery, which was damaging to the ability of the city planners to take into consideration the views of the community and iterate infrastructure designs in a slower paced, yet perhaps more effective, manner. Greater education and engagement in advance of disasters would help.

Kristen is interested in talking to anyone involved in this area of community engagement and disaster risk management.

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Kirsten Van Fossen (Engineering)

How to support innovation to improve food systems and public health

Kirsten explained that her engineering background and systems thinking led her to be passionate about the food system of our planet, a fascinating and complex system, fundamental to many issues in society and thus holds a large opportunity for making a positive impact. Kirsten used the food system map, in the figure below, to explain the links between the food system and cities.

Her research is primarily focussed upon innovation – how to build sustainable food systems - which will require inhabitants to source, purchase and consume food in a different way. She has investigated three entrepreneurial ventures aiming to improve our food system: ‘The Depanneur’ in Toronto, ‘Branchfood’ in Boston and ‘Food and City’ connected with the University of Texas. She is interested in linking with others interested in how to change food systems and improve public health.

Fernando Bucheli (Centre for Development Studies)

Urban Segregation, how quality of life is affected

Fernando’s presentation was entitled ‘Placing Capabilities in Urban Spaces: The Capability Approach to Residential Segregation.’ He began by asking ‘What do we really mean by quality of life in cities?’

Fernando explained there are both objective and subjective measures used. Objective indicators include natural amenities (e.g. climate and physical beauty) and human created amenities (recreational opportunities and educational opportunities). Subjective measurements include happiness and satisfaction with life. Fernando explained that these approaches tend to counting urban features as well as the endowment of goods. The problem is that different qualities of life can be found between people who receive the same inputs- they have a different ability to convert goods and proximity to urban features into quality of life.

Fernando’s research tries to address this problem by using the Capability Approach pioneered by Amartya Sen to look at the measurement of quality of life in cities. With this approach, Fernando is investigating urban wellbeing based on humans’ capabilities to function and achieve the lives they want. Thus, Fernando will be focussing on what a person is, does, and is able to do. Fernando’s research is focused on Bogota, Columbia and he is looking at quality of life in neighbourhoods in Bogata where people of different classes live in close proximity.

He is interested in feedback on his work and other areas where his research could be applied.

Source: http://www.nourishlife.org/teach/ food-system-tools

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Charles Barlow (Geography)

Engagement and inclusion in mixed income/ tenure housing

Charles discussed his research on ‘When community and condos collide: the uneven geographies of housing wealth in a mixed-income neighbourhood transformation’. Charles is looking at the specific practices through which public space is produced and managed in neighbourhoods of this type. His research is focused upon a particular mixed-income district undergoing transformation in Chicago. There is a combination of public and private housing and the area is being “gentrified”. He lived in two neighbourhoods, observing life there, sitting in meetings, holding interviews with inhabitants.

Charles described very opposing views of public space between different residents of the community. He found that those in lower income housing were more tolerant of disorder and favoured the concept of freedom of use of public spaces. On the other hand, those of higher incomes were less tolerant, having outdoor space of their own and exercising more control over shared space-

implementing incremental changes, such as cutting down trees to change the use of space, that were not possible amongst lower-income house dwellers. Whilst some of these cases meant that the higher income residents made a positive change, in many cases lower income residents did not appreciate restrictions imposed upon them.

He found that despite increases in overall community wealth from mixed income neighbourhoods, an increased amount of inequality and a strong sense of division between the two tiers of income can arises, as Charles described a strong sense of ‘Geographies of privilege’ and clashes of socio-economic classes.

Charles highlighted the need to recognise and address potential exclusion and use innovation in the housing market to neutralise the significance of housing wealth, smooth power differentials and facilitate the exercising of citizenship entitlements of all. He believes that there is a need to de-couple decisions about housing completion from wealth management, as well as to embrace the responsibility for all who live in a city - rich or poor - to be given a voice. Changing attitudes will be part of making mixed income communities successful in the future.

Bogota, Columbia. Source: Presentation by Juan Fernando Bucheli, Future cities Conference, June 2016

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How we live together

Phil Allmendinger

University of Cambridge

How we live together in cities

Phil is the Head of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences in Cambridge and his job involves looking after 9 departments, ranging from law to economics, to social anthropology between others. His main challenge is to facilitate and encourage an issue based approach to research without losing the subject identity; Phil outlines that currently Cambridge has 19 strategic research initiatives and that hopefully the 20th will be on the future of cities.

Phil emphasised that as cities are people shaped more than subject shaped, a lot of new thinking might be required to improve their current condition requiring inter-disciplinary and international collaboration. This Future Cities Conference is very much in tune with this agenda and is a great example of what philanthropy can achieve with benefits for industry and policymakers as well as supporting research and collaborations.

Dimitris Ballas

What makes a happy city?

Dimitris researches the geography of happiness in cities. What drives happiness and how does it relate to how and where we live and how we design, build and manage cities? How to measure happiness and quality of life – objectively and subjectively. Objective measurement draws on natural amenities, urban amenities (retail, parks, culture etc.), human created amenities (e.g. fiscal prudence, cultural and lifestyle tolerance, management of land use, crime levels, education, social capital) and compensating differentials (e.g. house prices etc). Subjective measurement recognises the philosophical roots of the questions around quality of life dating back to Buddhism, Socrates, Plato and Aristotle. A key point was that happiness needs to be set in the context of the society and time in which it is being measured. However, it is possible to ask people in a number of ways about their happiness and well-being and

look at what is driving differences across different people in their responses e.g. general health questionnaire. Age influences happiness – falling as people reach 40 then rises again. Dimitris highlighted Layard’s work on drivers of happiness. Sex is on top! - the morning commute at the bottom. “Most people would rather be alone than interact with their boss!” The link between activities and happiness can also be put into a geographic context.

Relationships and inequality which shape the context matter. It is natural for people to set comparative frameworks to value or estimate their personal achievements. People measure what they have and what they have achieved against other members of society have achieved themselves. “A house may be large or small; as long as the surrounding houses are equally small it satisfies all social demands for a dwelling. But if a palace arises beside the little house, the little house shrinks to a hovel ... [and] ... the dweller will feel more and more uncomfortable, dissatisfied and cramped within its four walls.” (Marx, 1847). Greater inequality can lead to a greater attention being focussed on positional goods (houses, cars etc.) and push for lower taxes thereby reducing the amount available for public goods that help support happiness and well-being.

Links: www.mappiness.org.uk

Ballas, D. & Dorling, D. (2013). The Geography of Happiness. Oxford Handbook of Happiness

Source: Nakaya & Hanibuchi (2009)

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Ron Bakker

PLP Architecture

Learning from “The Edge”

Ron is an architect. His focus is on how to make buildings work better for the occupiers/users of the building – where buildings are places for people to meet spontaneously and generate ideas. This can be seen in ‘The Crick’, London, where interaction is facilitated in the design of the building (e.g. a core that allows the different floors to be seen) and the allocation of the different functions that have ‘slightly overlapping spaces’. You don’t really need a place to talk to people in given technological change. So do we still need spaces to meet? – in Ron’s view of course we do!

The Edge is highly connected 40,000 sq m office Ron and his colleagues designed in Amsterdam. Deloitte is the major tenant. The developer decided to invest more to achieve the highest levels of sustainability with the expectation that it would sell for more. Deloitte knew people were hardly ever at their desks (only 25% of their time) - communication was key. These two trends sustainability and communication are related. Deloitte were very conscious of their need to advise clients on how to adapt to the latest advances in technology. Offices have traditionally been designed with similar workspaces but in consultation with the prospective users of the building it was designed to provide different possibilities for meeting and enabling varied styles of working (big benches, standing desks, concentration rooms etc.) – with flexible space. Designed with only 1,100 workspaces for 3,000 people. Each light fitting has an IP address, every movement is measured and captured in the building information management system. People are connected to the building through their smart phones – the building recognises people’s needs for space, different behaviours and preferences e.g. the temperature is adjusted to personal comfort automatically and lighting is connected to individual working stations and activated only when needed. The coffee machine recognises workers’ favourite drinks and makes suggestions! The building had the highest BREEAM rating ever. The advanced technology used for connectivity and building management despite being a substantial investment has had a substantial

impact on reducing costs of operation - making it one of the most sustainable buildings in the world.

According to Ron, ‘the shared spaces are what hold the success of the building’ - ‘the heart and soul of the building’. People like the building as it fits with their lifestyle – it offers flexibility to choose how you want to work on any particular day – empowered by technology. Flexibility will be important both in buildings and in cities in helping them adapt to and integrate the next wave of technology.

Source: Ron Bakker FCC Presentation (2016)

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Density and High Rise Living Professor Colin Lizieri

University of Cambridge

Professor Colin Lizieri convened proceedings and highlighted that 54% of the world’s population are currently dwelling in urban environments and by 2050 that proportion will rise to 66%. High rise blocks and high density are now the norm in city cores globally. This is leading to some key challenges about where and what to build to deal with these pressures.

Hong Kong Source: Tour mapGoogle

Keynote Speech Professor Edward Ng

Chinese University of Hong Kong

Density and high rise living Challenges of designing for density

Professor Edward Ng set out the many issues associated with high density design and sustainability, using Hong Kong as a case study. The city has some of the densest urban areas in the world - site coverage ratios are at least 50%, and the average building height in Hong Kong is 20 storeys - a mass of very tall buildings built very closely together! Hong Kong is very dense but also has a high proportion of green areas (70%) – compared to London which is “quite good” at 39%, Tokyo 3% and Shanghai 2%.

He began by highlighting some of the climate issues associated with high density urban design – not only the reducing the impact on climate change but on urban climates. In designing cities there is a need to be sensitive to local climates and culture. The impact of urbanisation nearby also

needs to be taken into account. The urbanisation in mainland China on the Pearl River Delta (Guangzhou etc.) has affected both pollution levels and wind circulation patterns in Hong Kong. . What is built 20 miles away can affect wind circulation.

The way cities are designed is critical to the degree of density that can be sustained without sacrificing environmental quality (up to a point) – mixing building heights and understanding of air flows is critical to this (HKSPC and Dr Vicky Cheng). What buildings are built with and clad with will also make a significant difference and policy can encourage greater usage of materials which absorb heat/sun. He highlighted the need in urban design to not be overly proscriptive but ensure there are sufficient walkways etc. for everyone to be able to get through the city. One needs to think about the many scales relevant for a city – from the global to the community and individual.

He outlined four major challenges facing urban designers in Asia (i) climate change (ii) urban climate (see: IPCC) – the growth of mega cities in the tropical belt face particular risks (iii) the rise of the Asian middle class – their behaviour and need (iv) ageing populations and making them work for older populations. Amplifiying these points he highlighted that the storm surge expected every 50 years now will be expected every two years if climate changes as expected by the end of the century. Water shortages will need to be proactively addressed. Heat beyond a certain threshold causes an increase in death rates. HK now beyond threshold. HK used to have 20 hot nights will become 127 hot nights – with many more continuous hot nights - a particular threat to the poor and weak who lack access to air-conditioning technology.

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Source: Chao, Ng & Lutz (2011)

Ed referred to his work on urban climate mapping systems into a decision-making guide for planners. He gave examples of where re-zoning for higher density can integrate environmental considerations where the impact on urban climate and environmental considerations can effectively be mitigated. Kaoshiung City in Taiwan was used to illustrate how to get air to flow through the city from surrounding green hilly areas. Macao was another example cited where optimum spacing of artificial islands reduced the environmental impact and the science behind it could be integrated in the discussions with residents. The importance of designing the ground floor area sensitively was outlined. In addition, the need to think about how to support walking access. He finished by outlining his work on 57 cities in China and how modelling and urban climate maps can support effective urban design and planning.

Professor Paul Cheshire

London School of Economics

It’s Rising Incomes Stupid Planning rhetoric

Paul outlined that he is in favour of going upwards and outwards. He outlined that planning is needed - land markets have endemic problems of market failure (public goods – land for infrastructure and where not possible to charge for). Planning is an economic activity – allocation a scarce resource – land. However, he says the UK system is dysfunctional. The UK’s system has three main problems i) riddled with uncertainty (ii) there is no incentive for local communities to support development iii) we ration land without any regard to the economics and the costs associated with that rationing. Long standing urban containment policies in the UK have propagated greenbelts (which cover 1.5 times as much land as UK towns and cities) and low rises at the cost of housing affordability and severe supply deficits.

He offers that the most significant of these factors has been the chronic misdiagnosis of the fundamental drivers of housing demand in the UK, which is largely due to the widespread belief that long run demand is primarily dictated by population growth. The statistics he presents are compelling, as we see that in the period of 1951 -

2011, on average, London’s population has only increased by 0.1%, however real house prices has risen by over 463% in the same period. Planning is being based on population growth and ignoring the main driver of demand for land and housing is incomes. The 2.3 million housing shortfall plaguing the UK (as of 2012) is down to underestimating the impact of rising incomes on the demand for space. .2

Source: Cheshire (2009)

Paul explained that due to the high income elasticity of demand for housing, a 10% change in incomes can result in a 20% increase in demand for space.3 Consequently, as pricing in any market results from an interaction of supply and demand, in the face of policies intended to constrain the supply of housing land, and misjudged demand requirements due a lack of understanding of the long term demand drivers in housing markets, post war public policy has led to the current housing shortfall.

Greenbelts have restricted supply as have restrictions on height. Land prices did not show a trend increase between the 1890s and mid 1950s but since then there has been a 15 fold increase reflecting the restriction of supply. We now have a situation where 65% of the GLA area is “green” (gardens, parks, woods etc.) and 22% is green belt. Competition for land is suppressed. Land for golf courses is cheap – resulting in 2x the area of Kensington and Chelsea being golf courses. There is a massive over-supply of golf courses and a massive under-supply of housing!

2 Cheshire, P. (2014). Turning houses into gold: the failure of British planning (No. 421). Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. 3 Cheshire, P., & Sheppard, S. (1998). Estimating the demand for housing, land, and neighborhood characteristics. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 60(3), 357-382.

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The lack of connection between planning and the need to address housing shortages and transport infrastructure investment was illustrated with the “criminal insanity” of Taplow. Spending £18bn on Crossrail, Taplow will have a station but we can’t put a single house there because it is in the green belt. Doubling the prices of the houses in Taplow for the benefit of the existing residents but providing no upside for others.

Paul concluded by highlighting that the rationing of land in the face of rising incomes will lead to continued real house price growth and a worsening crisis in affordability. Furthermore, agglomeration economies are being lost. There is a 5% gain in total factor productivity for doubling city size. If land supply is fixed costs increase in line with the gains from agglomeration economies whilst if land supply is allowed to be responsive the increase in costs is much more modest. The planning system needs to change!

Source: GLA, DCLG and Quod analysis

Professor Koen Steemers

Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge

Form and Human Comfort The potential of urban design

Professor Koen Steemers’ addressed (i) urban form (ii) energy consumption and density (iii) urban form scenarios and their environmental impact. Drawing attention back to the environmental concerns associated with densification he started

by highlighting the role of non-uniform urban forms. Looking at the environmental implications and sky view factors he highlighted that floor/plot area ratios with irregular architectural forms could have the same impact as regular forms with 20% of the density. The heat island effect, access to natural light, solar power etc. are all affected by urban form. Above floor/plot area rations of 7 the benefits of irregular forms reduce.

Turning to density and energy use, Koen highlighted that if you look at the existing housing stock against density energy use per sq m is remarkably constant between cities and rural areas. The implication is that small homes will reduce energy consumption but we need outdoor space that complements smaller homes. Key determinant of energy consumption is behaviour of occupants. Energy performance of cities will not be determined by where we build or density but by refurbishment and the behaviour of occupants.

Then revisiting an idea touched upon earlier by Professor Ng; human comfort in the urban form, Koen said that planners and designers need to be concerned with the liveability of cities. Freedom of choice improves overall comfort levels. A key variable which has significant bearing on comfort levels is “perceived control” e.g. having space where they can bask in the sun or sit in the shade and enjoy the breeze.4

Koen highlighted that as density increases, the opportunities for creating environmental diversity diminish. Which is largely due to the fact that the dominance of vertical dimensions in high rise cities diminishes access to the sun, wind and views.

Koen concluded his remarks by re-emphasing a point both he and Koen had made; the success of any urban strategy or policy is around people and the quality of the urban experiences it creates.

4 Steemers, K., & Ramos, M. (2009). Urban Environment Diversity and Human Comfort. In Ng, E (Ed.), Designing high-density cities: for social and environmental sustainability (pp.27-37). Routledge.

London house building and housing targets 1871 to 2015

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Lord Chris Smith

University of Cambridge

Risk, resilience and response

‘What are the great challenges to the resilience of cities?’ Through this question Lord Chris Smith introduced the discussion on urban resilience and outlined three major issues: (a) intensified population growth, and the discussions on urban sprawl and density; (b) transport infrastructure, altogether with transport behaviour; (c) climate change, with its drastic consequences for water, waste disposal, temperature, air quality and a range of other issues. Smith outlines that ten risks of higher concern were identified during the WEF Conference (World Economic Forum) as follows: (1) fiscal crisis in key economies; (2) high unemployment and under employment; (3) water crisis; (4) severe income disparity; (5) failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation; (6) greater incidence of extreme weather events (storms, fires); (7) global governance failure; (8) food crisis; (9) failure of a major financial mechanism or institution; (10) profound political and social instability. According to Smith, the fact that four of them are directly related to climate change outlines how climatic events are ‘testing the resilience of cities’. Some of these effects are already evident now. Blue and green spaces have a paramount role in mitigating it, supporting better environments and ameliorating the future of cities.

Professor Paul Linden

University of Cambridge

MAGIC: Managing Air for Green Inner Cities

Paul Linden discussion looked at urban sustainability was introduced by outlining the fact that buildings are responsible for of the majority of carbon emissions within cities and have a huge impact not only in the urban environment but also on socio-economic issues. Climate change is a big issue for cities and it is estimated that the costs are 1.2 trillion dollars annually. Linden outlines how green and blue spaces can support more liveable and sustainable cities and research shows that both green and blue infrastructure can reduce

temperature in urban heat islands. In Richmond Park temperatures are 10 degrees C lower than central London. Buildings are responsible for a growing share of carbon emissions – so how do we build green buildings not greenhouses? - how can urban development give sufficient emphasis on green buildings? A big issue is that environmental comfort in buildings has not achieved high standards, with commercial buildings’ comfort having been reported by users as very low since - the internal temperature is too high during wintertime and too cold on summertime, clearly showing the lack of efficiency of current systems for seasonal temperature mitigation. Temperature is a key issue. People give off a 100W and if in a box would raise the temperature by 10 degrees C. Finding ways to efficiently ventilate buildings is critical. Tall chimneys for example can be very useful. Linden outlines that, since architecture plays a big role in the climatic impacts of the built environment it is important to develop cities in which buildings use the external air as a cooling system and provide a more porous barrier to the exterior environment for efficient use.

Based on sustainability aligned to building ventilation, M.A.G.I.C. (Managing Air for Greener Inner Cities) is a project being led by Paul Linden with a mission to ‘to develop a city with no air pollution and no heat-island effects by 2050’ (1) This project is of paramount importance, especially within the context that ‘air pollution is projected to be the leading global cause of mortality by 2050.’ (2). The project is a collaboration between Cambridge, UCL and Surrey.

The research aims to build a unified system that models the built and natural environment using advanced computing technology and estimates environmental (carbon), social and economic costs and benefits. The project is interested in short, medium and long-term effects. The modelling works right down to the individual window level. Building ventilation is a core part of the project and linking internal and external air flows. It aims to identify where sensors should be placed etc. The project will include a case study monitoring buildings to build a unified system.

Partners for this fascinating project are being sought - so if you are interested and able to contribute please do contact Paul Linden.

Further details can be found on: www.magic-air.uk

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Catharine Ward Thompson

University of Edinburgh

Urban green / blue space, resilience and human health

Catharine’s research focuses on the impact of green spaces on physical and mental health and quality of life. The context is that societies are not so healthy (obesity, diabetes with 27% of the EU population experiencing at least one “mental disorder in the past year”). This situation could be mitigated through a strategy of intensified proximity of housing to green spaces in order to support holistic urban resilience and healthier life styles. She outlines that there should be a set of minimum requirements for green spaces in urban environments to support urban development with emphasis on social benefits. Supporting this argument, she outlines that within the ecological approach to place-making, everything matters – from ‘people’ through ‘communities’ and the ‘built environment’ to the ‘global ecosystem’ (see diagram below).

Research highlights the real health benefits of green spaces / natural environments - from opportunities to socialize and reduce isolation, physical activity, ‘psychoneuroendochrinology’ benefits and attention restoration. Catharine highlighted there are clear difference in cortisol patterns in people between those in areas with high green space areas and those in low green space areas. The effects of green spaces - appear to be greater for people on lower incomes, since they are more deprived in terms of accessibility to certain spaces for socialising. For children, the value of green spaces relies on the opportunities for development, ranging from interaction with other people to development of motor and emotional abilities - thus, education can and must be supported on green spaces, both through formal and informal strategies. Catharine has collaborated on a piece of research for the Scottish government entitled ‘ Good Places Better Health for Scotland’s Children’ (http://www.gov.scot/resource/0039/00398236.p

df) which outlines the values of outdoor spaces for children’s development.

Catharine outlined that every urban environment needs different sizes and types of green spaces to support a myriad of functions and groups of people. (i) Nearby greenery easily visible for mood, stress relief and mental restoration. (ii) Local green areas - Distance from home is an important factor and in the best scenario, green spaces must be local - reached on a walking distance of < 5 minutes. (iii) Green infrastructure networks play a key role in making walking and cycling enjoyable and attractive. (iv) Large parks and natural areas accessible for all – for sport, active recreation etc.

Green spaces can play an important role in urban resilience – filtering harmful gases and reducing air pollution and mitigating urban heat islands and, by providing shade, reduce the need for air conditioning.

Catharine’s work provides clear evidence on the important of urban green spaces to health and encourage a holistic view of urban development. Further research being carried out focuses on accessibility for elderly people and how improvements can be made through the process of co-designing spaces with its potential users.

Source: Barton H, Grant M. (2006) A Health Map for the Local Human Habitat. Journal of the Royal Society for the Promotion of Health.

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For further information about Future Cities, please contact: Nick Mansley Senior Visiting Fellow and a Director of the Real Estate Research Centre nm558@cam.ac.uk The Cambridge Real Estate Research Centre crerc@hermes.cam.ac.uk

The Future Cities Programme is generously supported by Capital & Counties Properties PLC, one of the UK’s largest investment and development property companies and constituent of the FTSE- 250 Index. Capco specialises in central London real estate and has assets valued at £3.7 billion (as at 31 December 2015) in two landmark London estates: Covent Garden, including the historic Market Building, and Earls Court Properties including the Empress State Building together with the Venues business. The company is listed on the London Stock Exchange and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. www.capitalandcounties.com

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