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SPANISH GENERAL ELECTIONS #20NGeorge Washington University
@rafarubio@dogcomunicacion
THE “GROUND RULES”
Spanish electoral system
o Parliamentary System:- Head of State / Head of Government- Bicameral Congress- Indirect democratic system- Non-proportional system: Law D'Hont
o Provincial constituencies (50)
Non-governmental powers
Church Unions
Social movements
(15M)Media
Major elected offices EuropeanNationalRegionalLocal
Reelection Allowed, undefined.
Percentage limite on presidential elections NO
Importance of Poitical Parties High
How do parties select their candidates? ¿? Internal elections without oposition
Voting Non mandatory
Election for: CongressSenate
Parties funding Mainly from the government and affiliates
Campaigns limits (time, money) 15 days. Depending to the number of votes
POLITICAL CLIMATE
Municipal results
2011
2007
Regional results
2011
2007
Congress participation 1977-2008
Regional vote evolution
Political context
o International crisis (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Italy)– Unemployed (20%- 5.000.000)– Increasing risk rate.– Abstainers– Desilusión
Unemployment 2008-2012
Unemployment
Hiding information
Elections date moved to 11/20 (anounced 29/07)
Nothing matters. Neither the country,nor the institutions, the people, nothing…The important things are the personal rates,‘the box’ (banks)….
And not this one precisely.
The elections were advanced 4 months, theInstitutionallity sets back 200 years.
CAMPAIGN STRATEGIES AND TACTICS
Mariano Rajoy Brey
o Politically experienced.o 8 years in opposition.o Party calm after major
crises.o Favorable surveys but
assessment below 5.
Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba
o Clever and Machiavellian fame.
o Zapatero’s Vice President and Minister of Interior.
o Felipe Gonzalez’s Minister and spokesman.
Voting Intention
Voting Intention evolution 2004-2012. (Source: CIS)
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
PP PSOE
o The traditional campaign, avoiding the verdict.o The change (poster and slogan) despite being often
repeated.o No big promises.o No appearances in the media.
(Join the change)
o No strategy.o Agresive campaigno Alfredo or Mr. Rubalcaba.o With Rubalcaba.o The final sprint: micro-acts.
(Fight for what you want)
The Debate
The DebateWho won?
Online strategy
o General strategyo 6 pilars:– Coordinated campaign:
– Campaign customization– Vote to the president
– Strategy development:– We did not work by ourselves.– Integrated in the campaign team.
– Integral presence:– Channels
Online Campaign ResultsDaily mentions to each Party on Social Media
(showing voting intention)
@marianorajoy @conRubalcaba
Followers 125790 80936
10,000
30,000
50,000
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
15-Sep
19-Sep
23-Sep
27-Sep
1-Oct
5-Oct
9-Oct
13-Oct
17-Oct
21-Oct
25-Oct
29-Oct
2-Nov
6-Nov
10-Nov
14-Nov
18-Nov
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
RajoyRubalcaba
Most frequent wordsRAJOY
Thanks: (540)Program/Program PP (262/179)Sumatealcambio (160)Employment (134)Government (84)Measures (81)
PP (173)
PSOE (10)
RUBALCABARajoy (209)PSOE (145)PP (104)Program (93)Debate (90)ireply(73)
RajoydoesntanswerAlfredodoesnthide (70)
Thanks (70)
Tweet Type
@marianorajoy
AnnouncementsRepliesRT
39%
51%
10%
@conRubalcaba
AnnouncementsRepliesRT
Candidate Mentions
Assessment
Average daily assessment
International Media presence
@marianorajoy @conRubalcaba
Mentions 67351 55675
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
Mariano Rajoy Rubalcaba
Friends 69599 47989
5,000
15,000
25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
YouTube
“Rajoyistas por el mundo 1”
“Rajoyistas por el mundo 2”
“Rajoyistas por el mundo 3”
Rajoy responde(taxista) “Rubalcaba, sí” “Rubalcaba: escuchar, hacer, explicar”
“Acto de proclamación” “Pelea por lo que quieres”
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
4 Videos most seen by 21 November 2011
Klout
18-Oct
19-Oct
20-Oct
21-Oct
22-Oct
23-Oct
24-Oct
25-Oct
26-Oct
27-Oct
28-Oct
29-Oct
30-Oct
31-Oct
1-Nov
2-Nov
3-Nov
4-Nov
5-Nov
6-Nov
7-Nov
8-Nov
9-Nov
10-Nov
11-Nov
12-Nov
13-Nov
14-Nov
15-Nov
16-Nov
17-Nov
18-Nov
19-Nov
20-Nov
21-Nov
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
Google Trends
Channels
Fundraising
Campaign funding
Bonds
Affiliates
Public resources
ELECTION RESULTS
Election Results
CONCLUSION
Conclusion
• Lessons learned1. Strategy, don´t lose
your way2. Primaries could be a
good idea3. Take care of your
people
• Predictions1. A very hard time2. Back to the streets3. New parties or new
approach inside the parties.
@rafarubio@dogcomunicacion
¡THANK YOU!