Campaigns and Elections

Candidates

• “self-starters” vs. recruited by parties

• Motivation

• Profile

Changing campaign styles

• More personalized• Less reliant on organization• More expensive• More professionals, less volunteers

“Stump Speaking” by George Caleb Bingham – c. 1830s

Warren Harding’s Front Porch Campaign – Mass Media Election, 1920

Harry Truman’s Whistle Stop Campaign, 1948

Are the biggest part of spending in modern campaigns.

Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” (1984)

They can be designed to promote a candidate in a number of ways:1. Present a biography – Introduce the candidate2. Claim accomplishments/record3. Compare to other candidates4. Respond to other ads

Into which category does this fall?

An example:

Television Campaign Ads

LBJ Daisy (1964)

Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary dominate early political news coverage

Primaries

• Closed

• Open

• Blanket

• Run-off

Caucus

1860 GOP Convention

The Convention

Presidential candidates have been nominated by the convention method in every election since 1832. •Seating the Delegates. •Convention Activities.

•Speech making•Platform formulation•Presidential Balloting•Acceptance Speeches

•Becoming less relevant

Hard money Soft moneyAir warGround war

Political Action Committees (PACs)

Campaign Finance Terminology

Harry & Louise Issue Ad

527 Groups (or Committees)

If Parents Acted Like Bush

Regulations

• Hatch Act (1939)

• Federal Election Campaign Act (1974)

• McCain-Feingold (2002)

(Historical) Legal Regulations on Registration

• Poll Tax

• Literacy Test

• Requiring re-registration at periodic intervals

• Purging for nonvoting

• Residency requirements

• Closing date for registration

• Office hours for registration may be limited to regular business hours

• Registration offices can be limited or widely available

• Deputy registrars

• Absentee registration

Wolfinger & Rosenstone’s Hypotheses

• Hypotheses

• Consequential restrictions

• Reforms suggested

Voter Turnout of Voting Age Pop

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996

Voter turnout

Electoral Law

• Most states require registration

• Elections occur on a Tuesday

• Votes must be cast in the assigned precinct during polling hours

• Absentee ballots need to be requested in advance

• Elections are SMDP

Machinery of Elections

How voters decide

• Socio-economic and demographic factors– Education– Income/socio-economic status– Religion– Ethnicity/Race*– Gender– Age– Region

• Psychological factors– Party identification*– Perception of the candidates in terms of image and trustworthiness– Issue preferences, especially on economic issues

Party ID measured on a seven-point scale

Cartogram of Electoral College Votes

The Electoral Map – 10/15 (Time)

2004 Results – State Level

Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

2004 Results – State (pop adj)

Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

2004 Results – State (EC adj)

Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

2004 Results – County Level

Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

2004 Results – County Level (pop adj)

2004 Results – County (intensity)

Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

2004 Results – County (intensity, pop)

Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

Caveat: Sometimes the polls are wrong