20
Economic and Financial Analysis Follow us @ING_Economics 17 May 2017 Can anything get in the way of a stronger Euro? Our answers to this month’s big questions
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Economic and Financial Analysis Follow us @ING_Economics 17 May 2017
Can anything get in the way of a stronger Euro? Our answers to this month’s big questions
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Primary chart colours
ING Fuchsia RGB= 171, 0, 102
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RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
Secondary chart colours
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RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
RGB= 241, 244, 196
RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
RGB= 231, 242, 249
RGB= 242, 217, 232
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Economic and Financial Analysis
Our top six themes this
month
Economic and Financial Analysis
Follow us @ING_Economics
Why good is not good enough when it comes to Eurozone growth
Why we expect two jumps in EUR/USD over the next two years
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
The major risk elections seem to have passed… almost
The latest on the UK General Election, and what it means for Brexit
Reflation dashboard: How fiscal stimulus hopes are fading
Global Economics and Strategy Team
May 2017
Our four scenarios for Trump’s next 100 days
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Primary chart colours
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RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
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RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
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Economic and Financial Analysis
Following Macron’s defeat of Le Pen, the 577 members of the National Assembly will be elected, with less than 5% of seats projected to be won by politically extreme parties (FN/FG)
The big risk elections seem to have passed… Almost
2
Upcoming elections in UK, France and Germany pose little risk to markets, but don’t forget about Italy
UK general election
8th June French parliamentary elections 11th June – 18th June
German federal election
24th September Italian elections
February 2018
Market risk?
Market risk?
Market risk?
Market risk?
The Conservatives are expected to win with an increased majority, giving PM May a clearer mandate
The only competition to Merkel’s CDU is the SPD, led by Martin Schulz. Both parties are moderate and there appears to be little threat of a populist victory here
Polls suggest anti-EU parties make up almost half of the electorate in Italy. The possibility of the 5* Movement becoming the largest party could unnerve markets
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Economic and Financial Analysis
Despite the politics, the Eurozone recovery is looking good…
3
Despite political risk, the Eurozone economy looks to have grown faster than the US and UK in 1Q17
Our forecast of 2% growth for 2017 would be the second strongest year in a decade – and this isn’t just driven by France and Germany, but broader growth across countries:
Spain, Portugal, Ireland and the Netherlands are looking strong, and more competitive
Private consumption, investments and fiscal policy have all continued to improve during 2017 so far. The Eurozone economy looks to be firing on all cylinders
This recovery is not only the result of favourable external conditions and very accommodative monetary policy, but structural improvements in several countries too
-2.00
-1.00
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.002010-2014
2015-2016
% Annual growth
60
70
80
90
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
France Germany Greece
Italy Netherlands Portugal
Spain
100 = frontier in doing business regulations
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Economic and Financial Analysis
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35% Unemployment
Inactive-wants to work
Seeking employment-not ILO unemployed
Involuntary part-time
…but good isn’t good enough: Structural issues need tackling
4
Three factors are responsible for limiting structural growth in the Eurozone:
Declining working age population
Weak capital stock growth
Low productivity growth
1
2
3
But there are solutions…
Immigration and reactivation of the hidden workforce could counter the drop in working age population – underemployment is still common
Looser fiscal policies could help capital stocks to growth by enabling governments to start public investments or incentivise the private sector to invest
Boosting productivity is the most challenging: until technologies become cheaper and more widespread, weak productivity growth may continue
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Economic and Financial Analysis 5
We expect the risk assessment and forward guidance to be adjusted at the June meeting
The next steps for the ECB now election risks are fading…
Adjustment of the risk assessment
Balanced
Risks to the outlook are tilted to…
Downside
Forward guidance
Current levels
Rates remain at…
Current or lower levels
June French parliamentary elections
June ECB adjusts forward guidance and risk assessment
September Announces tapering
September German elections
January ‘18 Start tapering
H1 ‘18 Italian elections
June ‘18 End QE
Q4 ‘18 First deposit rate hike
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Primary chart colours
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RGB= 160, 202, 233
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Economic and Financial Analysis
Expect two jumps in EUR/USD as the ECB normalises
6
One this year and one next year…
1.12
1.15
1.15
1.15
1.20 1.20 1.20
1.02
1.04
1.06
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.14
1.16
1.18
1.20
Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Oct 18
Rising long-term yields when the ECB first signals tapering is the main channel through which the Euro should benefit. This will come as less of a surprise to markets than the Fed’s tapering signal, so the Euro reaction should be less abrupt.
The potential for a 70bp increase in short-term Eurozone yields when markets start positioning for ECB deposit rate hikes will give EUR/USD a boost, particularly given that a gradual Fed tightening cycle is already priced.
EUR/USD spot rate
The Italian election is a potential Euro downside risk in early 2018
1: Tapering
2: Rate hikes
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RGB= 227, 232, 138
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RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
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RGB= 194, 223, 202
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Economic and Financial Analysis
It’s not just the ECB, there are other stars aligning for the Euro
7
Election risk news has a diminishing effect…
There is still a clear risk to the Euro from next year’s Italian election.
But negative political news is having a reduced effect on the Euro, compared to in the Greek crises.
That might be linked to the ECB regaining credibility to “do whatever it takes” to save the Euro.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Real EUR/USD deviation away from the BEER fair value + / - 1.5 standard deviation
Above fair value
Below fair value
EUR/USD is already well below fair value
Valuation will become a Euro amplifier
We think that EUR/USD is currently trading around 12% below it’s fair value (based on a range of metrics).
That’s held EUR/USD back from falling considerably below 1.05 this year, despite elevated political risks and excitement about Trump.
We think will only reinforce the upside Euro risk.
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Primary chart colours
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ING Lime RGB= 208, 217, 60
ING Leaf RGB= 52, 150, 81
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RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
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RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
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RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
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60% tints
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ING Minus RGB= 255, 0, 0
Positive and Negative
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Economic and Financial Analysis 8
What to expect on key policy areas over the next year
Trump: The next 100 days…
1 Oct: FY18 starts
Yellen’s term as Fed Chair expires
ACA repeal & replace
Presidential nominations (Senate approval)
House Senate
Financial regulation reform
Tax reform
Fed Chair nomination process
Infrastructure plan
Commerce Dept US trade deficit report due
Trump’s 2018 State of the
Union Speech
Trump (potential) China State visit
August Congress recess
Treasury Dept report on financial regulatory policy
President’s budget proposal
Ad
min
P
oli
cy
NAFTA renegotiations
Debt ceiling limit needs lifting
House Senate President
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2017 2018
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ING Indigo RGB= 82, 81, 153
ING Sky RGB= 96, 166, 218
Primary chart colours
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ING Lime RGB= 208, 217, 60
ING Leaf RGB= 52, 150, 81
RGB= 151, 151, 194
RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
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RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
RGB= 241, 244, 196
RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
RGB= 231, 242, 249
RGB= 242, 217, 232
RGB= 248, 249, 226
RGB= 225, 239, 229
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15% tints
ING Minus RGB= 255, 0, 0
Positive and Negative
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No content below this point
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Economic and Financial Analysis 9
Geopolitical politics replaces protectionism as the negative tail risk
Assessing Trump policy risks
Downshift in expectations given a more watered-down Trump policy regime
Original post US election distribution
Post 100 days distribution Watered-down Trump policies
means likelihood of positive outcome has shifted lower
-ve US growth
Modest Trump pro-growth
‘Trumpflation’
+ve US growth
Geopolitical chaos
Global
trade wars
1 2 4 3
4 Trump scenarios over the next 100 days:
Muddling Through Trump policy uncertainty
prevails leaving global markets directionless
1 Reflation Recovery Trump tax reform plans
pass Congress hurdle and provide modest stimulus
2 Global Tightening ECB QE exit & Fed balance sheet shrinking = a perfect storm for long-term yields
3 Geopolitical Chaos Trump foreign policy
causes geopolitical fears to escalate in markets
4
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Background colour & 3rd Grey where needed RGB= 240, 240, 240
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
ING Indigo RGB= 82, 81, 153
ING Sky RGB= 96, 166, 218
Primary chart colours
ING Fuchsia RGB= 171, 0, 102
ING Lime RGB= 208, 217, 60
ING Leaf RGB= 52, 150, 81
RGB= 151, 151, 194
RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
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RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
RGB= 241, 244, 196
RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
RGB= 231, 242, 249
RGB= 242, 217, 232
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ING Minus RGB= 255, 0, 0
Positive and Negative
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Economic and Financial Analysis 10
Rise and fall in markets shows fading fiscal stimulus hopes
Trump reflation dashboard
129.1 (28 Dec)
122.8
Peak: (28 Feb)
124.4 Latest: Pre-US
elections:
USD Index
2396 (01 Mar)
2140
Peak: (28 Feb)
2401 Latest:
Pre-US elections:
S&P 500
21,116 (01 Mar)
18,333
Peak: (28 Feb)
20979 Latest:
Pre-US elections:
Dow Jones
1.38% (14 Mar)
0.85%
Peak: (28 Feb)
1.27% Latest:
Pre-US elections:
US 2Y Yield
2.63% (13 Mar)
1.85%
Peak: (28 Feb)
2.29% Latest:
Pre-US elections:
US 10Y Yield
0.26% (16 Dec)
-0.31%
Peak: (28 Feb)
-0.15% Latest: Pre-US
elections:
10Y term premium
2.61% (05 Jan)
2.20%
Peak: (28 Feb)
2.26% Latest:
Pre-US elections:
5Y5Y Inflation
117.93 (16 Dec)
105.08
Peak: (28 Feb)
112 Latest:
Pre-US elections:
USD/JPY
US equities US yield curve Reflation
expectations FX
Updated on 17th May 2017
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
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Colour Guidelines
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Text Colour only RGB= 51, 51, 51
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Background colour & 3rd Grey where needed RGB= 240, 240, 240
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
ING Indigo RGB= 82, 81, 153
ING Sky RGB= 96, 166, 218
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ING Lime RGB= 208, 217, 60
ING Leaf RGB= 52, 150, 81
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RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
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RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
RGB= 241, 244, 196
RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
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Economic and Financial Analysis 11
Weighing up the dollar positives and negatives…
Source: ING, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Latest 2017 2018 2019 Long-run
Mar FOMC dots (with central tendency)
ING forecasts
Markets (latest)
Markets (2017 peak)
Fed policy rate (%)
Dollar downside factors Short-term
• Trump “jawboning”
• Geopolitical tensions
Medium-term
• Neutral Fed philosophy
• Structural twin deficit
(trade & fiscal)
USD
Dollar supportive factors • Tax repatriation holiday will create $ demand
• Tax reforms (corporate & household tax cuts)
• Deregulation policies
• Infrastructure spending plans ($1trn package)
• US inflation risks underestimated
• Fed balance sheet reduction
Pro-growth Trump policy regime
US economy close to full capacity
Fed dots may not need to adjust much to any modest Trump fiscal stimulus and looks fairly consistent with a low interest rate Trump regime
Our USD outlook can be seen as a balanced seesaw, with supporting factors likely to be offset by medium-term headwinds. Investors will want to see the finer details of Trump’s proposed tax reforms – as well as Congressional backing – before buying into a significantly positive US growth story.
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Text Colour only RGB= 51, 51, 51
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ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
ING Indigo RGB= 82, 81, 153
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RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
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Economic and Financial Analysis 12
Trump’s next 100 days: Four scenarios for global markets
Source: ING
Muddling Through Trump policy uncertainty
prevails leaving global markets directionless
2.3%-2.5% Modest uplift
as US inflation risks re-priced
Neutral Risk that Fed
only hikes once more in 2017
Small pickup in inflation
premium as US macro data rebounds
Credit EM FX with a +ve local story given goldilocks
market backdrop
US 10Y yield (range)
Fed policy bias (relative)
Inflation & Term Premia
US equity markets
FX Playbook
Reflationary assumptions
Risk aversion & volatility
Reflation Recovery Trump tax reform plans
pass Congress hurdle and provide modest stimulus
2.8%-3.0%
Strong bearish steepening in US yield curve
Hawkish tilt
Fed still tightens fairly gradually in
reflation mode
USD/JPY optimal reflation vehicle; USD bid against EM high-yielders
Global Tightening ECB QE exit & Fed balance
sheet shrinking = a perfect storm for long-
term yields
2.6%-2.8%
US yields dragged higher by rising Bund
yields
Neutral Tighter
financial conditions keeps Fed cautious
EUR crosses see greater upside against typical
carry currencies
Geopolitical Chaos Trump foreign policy
causes geopolitical fears to escalate in markets
Below 2.0%
Investors seek safe assets &
pile into Treasuries
Dovish rethink
Fed on hold given uncertain global backdrop
USD falls versus safe-haven JPY but up against EM FX universe
1
2
3
4
Resilient Tax hopes will underpin S&P 500 around
2350
Low Lower Trump
tail risks should keep risk
aversion low
Both inflation & term premia rise as global
growth optimism rises
More upside
Reality of stimulus lifts US
earnings estimates
Low
Orderly moves in a watered-down Trump
world
Global term premia rise as access to ‘easy
money’ falls
Correction risks
Sharper sell-off in bonds may -
vely affect equities
High
Higher bond market
volatility disrupts carry
Term premia turns more –ve
as markets enter risk-off
mode
Sell-off
Global equities fall as investors
rotate into bonds
High
Spike in volatility
as global risk aversion rises
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RGB= 160, 202, 233
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Economic and Financial Analysis
UK election dashboard: Conservatives look set for big win
13
Will it make a difference to Brexit? A bit…
The snap election gives PM May greater flexibility to get a transition period agreed, given the next vote won’t be until 2022.
A larger majority may also give her greater confidence to be more realistic/open with the public on the possible economic effects of Brexit.
But the road to Brexit will still be rocky…
The EU’s draft negotiation guidelines, and the fallout from a dinner between the Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, suggest that both sides could hardly be further apart on their Brexit views.
We still think that a positive outcome for both sides is possible given the amount of trade and jobs that are dependent on it.
But there are many obstacles in the road: first of all, the size of the so-called “exit bill”.
Conservati
ve
46%
Labour
28%
Liberal
Democrats
10%
UKIP
8%
Other
8% Latest political poll
Source: Guardian/ICM poll 8th May
Conservative
170 Based on latest polls
(Current majority is 17)
Predicted Conservative
majority
Source: Electoral Calculus
1/33
Latest odds
Source: Oddschecker
Odds of Conservatives winning the most seats
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Text Colour only RGB= 51, 51, 51
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Background colour & 3rd Grey where needed RGB= 240, 240, 240
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ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
ING Indigo RGB= 82, 81, 153
ING Sky RGB= 96, 166, 218
Primary chart colours
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RGB= 160, 202, 233
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RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
RGB= 241, 244, 196
RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
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Economic and Financial Analysis
We don’t expect a UK rate hike before Brexit talks end…
14
Economic uncertainty will outweigh concerns about rising prices
Slowing growth
Cost of living
MPC changes
Why we don’t expect a UK
rate hike before 2019
Kristin Forbes, the MPC member who actually voted for a rate rise in March will be leaving the committee next month.
This will make getting a majority to vote in favour of action more challenging.
Since the beginning of the year, business surveys have softened and consumer spending has slowed, culminating in a disappointing 0.3%QoQ 1Q17 GDP growth (vs 0.7% in 4Q16). This was significantly weaker than the Bank of England’s 0.6% March forecast and has helped dampen market rate hike expectations.
Inflation is surging due to the lagged effects of sterling’s plunge pushing up the cost of imports. However, domestically generated price pressures are weak, with wage growth having softened and petrol prices dropping. Household inflation expectations are also contained.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jul
16
Aug
16
Sep
16
Oct
16
Nov
16
Dec
16
Jan
17
Feb
17
Mar
17
Apr
17
May
17
Probability of a 25bp rate hike in Dec 2017 (%) (as implied by UK OIS curve)
Latest: 17%
Source: Macrobond
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
Colour Guidelines
ING Mid Grey RGB= 118, 118, 118
Text Colour only RGB= 51, 51, 51
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Background colour & 3rd Grey where needed RGB= 240, 240, 240
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
ING Indigo RGB= 82, 81, 153
ING Sky RGB= 96, 166, 218
Primary chart colours
ING Fuchsia RGB= 171, 0, 102
ING Lime RGB= 208, 217, 60
ING Leaf RGB= 52, 150, 81
RGB= 151, 151, 194
RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
Secondary chart colours
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RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
RGB= 241, 244, 196
RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
RGB= 231, 242, 249
RGB= 242, 217, 232
RGB= 248, 249, 226
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Economic and Financial Analysis 15
Our global forecasts
EUR/USD EUR/GBP
USD/JPY Oil (Brent Crude)
1M: 0.85 3M: 0.87 6M: 0.85 12M: 0.85 1M: 1.10 3M: 1.12 6M: 1.15 12M: 1.18
All data sourced from Bloomberg/ING forecasts
1M: 115 3M: 118 6M: 118 12M: 118 2Q17: 50 4Q17: 45 2Q18: 45 4Q18: 50
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
14 15 16 17 18
ING
Consensus
Forwards
EUR/USD
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
14 15 16 17 18
ING
Forwards
Consensus
EUR/GBP
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
14 15 16 17 18
ING
Forwards
Consensus
USD/JPY20
40
60
80
100
120
14 15 16 17 18 19
ING Consensus
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
Colour Guidelines
ING Mid Grey RGB= 118, 118, 118
Text Colour only RGB= 51, 51, 51
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Background colour & 3rd Grey where needed RGB= 240, 240, 240
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
ING Indigo RGB= 82, 81, 153
ING Sky RGB= 96, 166, 218
Primary chart colours
ING Fuchsia RGB= 171, 0, 102
ING Lime RGB= 208, 217, 60
ING Leaf RGB= 52, 150, 81
RGB= 151, 151, 194
RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
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RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
RGB= 241, 244, 196
RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
RGB= 231, 242, 249
RGB= 242, 217, 232
RGB= 248, 249, 226
RGB= 225, 239, 229
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Economic and Financial Analysis 16
Our global forecasts 2017F 2018F
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
United States
GDP (% QoQ, ann) 0.7 2.2 3.9 3.3 2.2 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.9
CPI headline (% YoY) 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9
Federal funds (%, eop, lower bound) 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50
3-month interest rate (%, eop) 1.15 1.15 1.31 1.33 1.33 1.60 1.69 1.85
Eurozone
GDP (% QoQ, ann) 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
CPI headline (% YoY) 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4
Refi minimum bid rate (%, eop) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
3-month interest rate (%, eop) -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.25 -0.10
Japan
GDP (% QoQ, ann) 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.1
CPI headline (% YoY) 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2
Excess reserve rate (%) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1
3-month interest rate (%, eop) 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
China
GDP (% YoY) 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.5 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5
CPI headline (% YoY) 1.4 1.8 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.0
PBOC 7-day reverse repo rate (% eop) 2.45 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.65 2.65 2.75 2.75
UK
GDP (% QoQ, ann) 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.6 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.3 1.2
CPI headline (% YoY) 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
BoE official bank rate (%, eop) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
BoE Quantitative Easing (£bn) 435 435 435 435 435 435 435 435
3-month interest rate (%, eop) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40
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ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
Colour Guidelines
ING Mid Grey RGB= 118, 118, 118
Text Colour only RGB= 51, 51, 51
Primary colours
Background colour & 3rd Grey where needed RGB= 240, 240, 240
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
ING Indigo RGB= 82, 81, 153
ING Sky RGB= 96, 166, 218
Primary chart colours
ING Fuchsia RGB= 171, 0, 102
ING Lime RGB= 208, 217, 60
ING Leaf RGB= 52, 150, 81
RGB= 151, 151, 194
RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
Secondary chart colours
RGB= 133, 192, 151
RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
RGB= 241, 244, 196
RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
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RGB= 242, 217, 232
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Economic and Financial Analysis
Get in touch
17
Developed Markets
London
Mark Cliffe Head of Global Markets Research 44 20 7767 6283
Rob Carnell Chief International Economist 44 20 7767 6909
James Knightley Senior Economist, UK, US, $ Bloc 44 20 7767 6614
James Smith Economist, Developed Markets 44 20 7767 1038
Chris Turner Global Head of Strategy and 44 20 7767 1610
Head of EMEA and LATAM Research
Petr Krpata Chief EMEA FX and IR Strategist 44 20 7767 6561
Viraj Patel Foreign Exchange Strategist 44 20 7767 6405
Padhraic Garvey Global Head of Debt and Rates Strategy 44 20 7767 8057
Aengus McMahon Senior Utility Analyst, 44 20 7767 8044 Head of Corporate Research
Juan Carrion Head of High Yield Research 44 20 7767 8379
Brussels
Peter Vanden Houte Chief Economist, Belgium, Eurozone 32 2 547 8009
Julien Manceaux Senior Economist, 32 2 547 3350 France, Belgium, Switzerland
Philippe Ledent Senior Economist, Belgium, Luxembourg 32 2 547 3161
Steven Trypsteen Economist, Ireland, Portugal 32 2 547 3379
Geoffrey Minne Economist, Spain 32 2 547 3386
Frankfurt
Carsten Brzeski Chief Economist, Germany, Austria 49 69 27 222 64455
Inga Burk Economist, Germany, Austria 49 69 27 222 66131
Milan
Paolo Pizzoli Senior Economist, EMU, Italy, Greece 39 02 55226 2468
Amsterdam
Maarten Leen Head of Macro Economics 31 20 563 4406
Teunis Brosens Senior Economist, Eurozone 31 20 563 6167
Bert Colijn Senior Economist, Eurozone 31 20 563 4926
Raoul Leering Head of International Trade Analysis 31 20 563 4407
Timme Spakman Economist, International Trade Analysis 31 20 576 4469
Marieke Blom Chief Economist, Netherlands 31 20 576 0465
Dimitry Fleming Senior Economist, Netherlands 31 20 576 0465
Jeroen van den Broek Head of DM Strategy and Research 31 20 563 8959
Maureen Schuller Head of Covered Bond Strategy and 31 20 563 8941 Financials Research
Martin van Vliet Senior Rates Strategist 31 20 563 8801
Benjamin Schroeder Senior Rates Strategist 31 20 563 8955
Hamza Khan Head of Commodities Strategy 31 20 563 8958
Warren Patterson Commodities Strategist 31 20 563 8921
Mark Harmer Senior Credit Analyst, Financials 31 20 563 8964
Suvi Platerink Kosonen Senior Credit Analyst, Banks 31 20 563 8029
Hendrik Wiersma Senior Credit Analyst, TMT 31 20 563 8961
Job Veenendaal Credit Analyst, Consumer Products 31 20 563 8956 and Retail
Marina Le Blanc Credit Analyst, Insurance 31 20 563 8094
Roelof-Jan van den Akker Head of Technical Analysis 31 20 563 8178
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
Colour Guidelines
ING Mid Grey RGB= 118, 118, 118
Text Colour only RGB= 51, 51, 51
Primary colours
Background colour & 3rd Grey where needed RGB= 240, 240, 240
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
ING Indigo RGB= 82, 81, 153
ING Sky RGB= 96, 166, 218
Primary chart colours
ING Fuchsia RGB= 171, 0, 102
ING Lime RGB= 208, 217, 60
ING Leaf RGB= 52, 150, 81
RGB= 151, 151, 194
RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
Secondary chart colours
RGB= 133, 192, 151
RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
RGB= 241, 244, 196
RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
RGB= 231, 242, 249
RGB= 242, 217, 232
RGB= 248, 249, 226
RGB= 225, 239, 229
60% tints
30% tints
15% tints
ING Minus RGB= 255, 0, 0
Positive and Negative
ING Plus RGB= 52, 150, 81
Map Base Colour
RGB= 217, 217, 217
No content below this point
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Economic and Financial Analysis
Get in touch
18
Emerging Markets
New York
Gustavo Rangel Chief Economist, LATAM 1 646 424 6464
London
Dorothee Gasser-Châteauvieux Chief Economist, EMEA 44 20 7767 6023
Nicholas Smallwood Senior Emerging Markets 44 20 7767 1045
Credit Analyst
Bucharest
Ciprian Dascalu Chief Economist, Romania 40 31 406 8990
Silviu Pop Junior Economist, Romania 40 31 406 8991
Budapest
Péter Virovácz Senior Economist, Hungary 36 1 235 8757
Istanbul
Muhammet Mercan Chief Economist, Turkey 90 212 329 0751
Manila
Joey Cuyegkeng Senior Economist, Philippines 632 479 8855
Moscow
Dmitry Polevoy Chief Economist, Russia and CIS 7 495 771 7994 Egor Fedorov Senior Credit Analyst, Russia and CIS 7 495 755 5480
Prague
Jakub Seidler Chief Economist, Czech Republic 420 257 47 4432
Warsaw
Rafal Benecki Chief Economist, Poland 48 22 820 4696
Piotr Poplawski Senior Economist, Poland 48 22 820 4078
Jakub Rybacki Economist, Poland 48 22 820 4608
Karol Pogorzelski Economist, Poland 48 22 820 4891
Singapore
Tim Condon Head of Research & Chief Economist, Asia 65 6232 6020
Prakash Sakpal Economist, Asia 65 6232 6181
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
Colour Guidelines
ING Mid Grey RGB= 118, 118, 118
Text Colour only RGB= 51, 51, 51
Primary colours
Background colour & 3rd Grey where needed RGB= 240, 240, 240
ING Orange RGB= 255, 98, 0
ING Light Grey RGB= 168, 168, 168
ING Indigo RGB= 82, 81, 153
ING Sky RGB= 96, 166, 218
Primary chart colours
ING Fuchsia RGB= 171, 0, 102
ING Lime RGB= 208, 217, 60
ING Leaf RGB= 52, 150, 81
RGB= 151, 151, 194
RGB= 160, 202, 233
RGB= 205, 102, 163
RGB= 227, 232, 138
Secondary chart colours
RGB= 133, 192, 151
RGB= 203, 202, 224
RGB= 207, 228, 244
RGB= 230, 178, 209
RGB= 241, 244, 196
RGB= 194, 223, 202
RGB= 229, 229, 240
RGB= 231, 242, 249
RGB= 242, 217, 232
RGB= 248, 249, 226
RGB= 225, 239, 229
60% tints
30% tints
15% tints
ING Minus RGB= 255, 0, 0
Positive and Negative
ING Plus RGB= 52, 150, 81
Map Base Colour
RGB= 217, 217, 217
No content below this point
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Economic and Financial Analysis
Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING (being the Wholesale Banking business of ING Bank N.V. and certain subsidiary companies) solely for information purposes. It is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. Copyright and database rights protection exists in this publication. All rights are reserved. The producing legal entity ING Bank N.V. is authorised by the Dutch Central Bank and supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Dutch Central Bank and the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM). ING Bank N.V. is incorporated in the Netherlands (Trade Register no. 33031431 Amsterdam). In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by ING Bank N.V., London Branch. ING Bank N.V., London Branch is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). ING Bank N.V., London branch is registered in England (Registration number BR000341) at 8-10 Moorgate, London EC2 6DA. For US Investors: Any person wishing to discuss this report or effect transactions in any security discussed herein should contact ING Financial Markets LLC, which is a member of the NYSE, FINRA and SIPC and part of ING, and which has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United States under applicable requirements.
19
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