Feeding 9 Billion People Without Destroying the Planet: Is it Possible?

Andrew Noble

Contents

The critical issues facing our food production system

Addressing the issues Concluding remarks.

UNITING AGRICULTURE AND NATURE FOR POVERTY REDUCTION

CRITICAL ISSUES

‘Water crisis’ is the third

highest global risk

..extreme weather, climate change and

biodiversity loss also very high

Global Risks Report 2014, World Economic Forum

Critical issues: Ecosystems

10 million hectares of farmland are lost every year due to ecosystem degradation.

66% of wetlands are used for agriculture in Africa and 48% in Asia.

Radical overhaul of agriculture can create farms which enhance rather than degrade the world’s ecosystems.

Critical issues: Gender

More than one-third of the female workforce is engaged in agriculture, while in regions like sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia more than 60% of all female employment is in this sector.

Two-thirds of the world’s 796 million illiterate adults are women.

Only 29% of researchers in the world today are women.

Critical issues: Land Degradation

One Fourth of the world’s surface is already degraded and 24 billion tons of soil are lost to erosion every year.

Nearly 50% of farmland in Africa suffers from erosion and nutrient depletion.

The value of nutrients lost in Africa is estimated at $4 billion per year.

34 million ha of irrigated equipped area has been affected by salt globally.

Critical issues: Groundwater

30% of all liquid freshwater on Earth is groundwater.

In Africa, there is 100 times more water under the surface of the ground than on it.

A new tube well is sunk every six seconds in India.

Critical issues: Wastewater

Half of the world’s people now live in towns and cities, a figure expected to reach two-thirds by 2050.

Agriculture is competing with industry and municipal users for safe water supplies.

Urban wastewater is polluting natural rivers, streams and lakes in many developing countries.

Critical issues: Floods and droughts

Over the past century, floods and droughts have accounted for 94% of all fatalities due to extreme weather events.

Between May and August 2010 severe flooding in China affected more than 230 million people.

In July 2012, after a prolonged drought, the United States Department of Agriculture declared natural disaster areas in more than 1,000 counties and 26 states, making it the largest natural disaster in America ever.

UNITING AGRICULTURE AND NATURE FOR POVERTY REDUCTION

WLE addressing the challenge in feeding the 9 billion

THE CENTRAL QUESTION FOR WLE:

How can we ensure that sustainable agricultural intensification and productivity increases are accomplished in ways that create and enhance ecosystem resilience for the poor?

VISIONA world in which agriculture thrives within vibrant ecosystems, where communities have higher incomes, improved food security and the ability to continuously improve their lives

MISSIONDevelop policies, institutions and investments toward sustaining ecosystems and their services as a prerequisite for sustainable and resilient agricultural intensification and improved livelihoods

WLE VISION AND MISSION

WLE RESEARCH AREAS

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES AND RESILIENCE

Almost 30% of Bangladesh fish come from flood plains.

Building community based organizations to increase fish production using ecosystem based approaches.

Led to increases in catches and important livelihood benefits to landless farmers.

Improved rice production using less fertilizer and water.

Understand trade-offs and synergies, both short and long term, on how mixed use landscapes can be managed for their multi-functionality.

Managing floodplains for livelihoods in Bangladesh

Acknowledgements: Meynell, P-J.

Constructed wetlands in reservoirs

GENDER, POVERTY AND INSTITUTIONS

Gendered decision making – Identifying livelihood options in resettled communities in the Mekong

Men

Upland rice control limited (material, relational and

subjective costs)

Fishing control increased (material benefit)

Livestock control decreased (material cost)

Women

Riverbank gardens control decreased (material cost)

Weaving control increased (material, subjective benefits)

Education increased participation (relational and

subjective benefits)

Decisions result in benefits or costs to men and women. These are social (relational), cultural (relational/subjective), emotional (subjective) as well as economic (material).

Identify where, when and how women can gain equitable access to water, land and other natural resources

REVITALIZING DEGRADED ECOSYSTEMSReduce land degradation and increase resilience of small scale farming communities in sub-Saharan Africa and other hot spots across the globe.

Licorice (Glycyrrhiza glabra) for amelioration of salt-affected soils and income generation, Uzbekistan

2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

50010001500200025003000350040004500

Net profit from Licorice produc-tion

Natural conditions

Cultivated crop

Net i

ncom

e, U

SD/h

a

Salt-affected soils in Syr Darya, Uzbekistan, 2005

Growing licorice on abandoned salt-affected soils can: Ameliorate salt-affected soils Return them to productive use Improve fertility of soils Generate high income for poor farmers

INCREASING WATER AND LAND PRODUCTIVITY

Banking on groundwater: How policies can lever change in India

Agricultural growth in West Bengal had slumped by more than half.

Research identified a major block to agricultural productivity was getting access to groundwater.

Policies recommended by IWMI were adopted to improve groundwater access for smallholder farmers.

Estimated rise in irrigated area from 3 to 4.8 mill ha and an additional 4.6 mill tons of paddy per year.

Develop technical, managerial and institutional solutions for managing water and land

Groundwater – a clear nexus issue

1. Gujarat - ‘free’ electricity encouraged groundwater overuse

Jyotigram in Gujarat – separate feeders

• Pragmatic solution - separation of electricity supply to villages and pumps

• Outcome - reduced electricity use, less groundwater use, improved power supply to domestic users

Tushaar Shah, IWMI

RECOVERING AND REUSING RESOURCES

20 promising business models for the safe reuse of human waste based on 200 case studies across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

The first investment pledges exceed $4m with several banks in the pipeline.

Outputs being used by WHO, FAO, UNEP and UNU (Global guidelines, assessments, methodologies, databases and training).

Reduce the negative urban footprint on ecosystems and human health through market driven incentives that promote investments in water and energy recovery and reuse

Business models and innovative partnerships

Waste to fertilizer – closing the nutrient loop

Co-composting

Introducing business models to turn waste into an asset

Solid waste and fecal sludge

composting in Asia and Africa

could save billions of US$ per

year, assuming a market for only

25% of the urban organic waste.

Not a new concept, but many

pilots not viable or sustainable

Business models for resource

recovery & reuse (RRR) target

private and public investors and

business schools.

Resource recovery and reuse - Sustainable waste and wastewater treatment Source: Drechsel

Water Energy Nexus benefits:

Energy reduction in: Water treatment, chemical fertilizer production and transport

Environmental benefits: Reduced pollution of water bodies, reduced nitrogen and phosphorous demand, reduced GHG emissions

MANAGING RESOURCE VARIABILITY AND COMPETING USES

Assist decision makers to reconcile natural variability, competition among sectors and trade-offs, and the importance of equitably sharing these resources

Sharing water benefits in the Andes

Institutional innovation to improve how benefits of water are shared up-stream and downstream: Developed Benefit Sharing

Mechanism for Caneta Basin, funded by IFAD and Peru Government.

Inputs and advice into to developing new PES Law in Peru.

Support to implementing BSM in more than 30 locations throughout the Andes.

Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTFI)Source: Pavelic 2012

Managing resource variability and competing uses

Assist decision makers to reconcile natural variability, competition among sectors and trade-offs, and the importance of equitably sharing these resources

Resolves water variability by accelerating surface–subsurface interactions

Process: Extract groundwater before monsoon Fill sub-surface storage using distributed

recharge mechanisms during the monsoon

Results: Increased water for dry season irrigation Reduced downstream flood impact Increased river flow in the dry season

Ganges Aquifer Management for Ecosystems Services (GAMES)

INTEGRATING ECOSYSTEM SOLUTIONS INTO POLICIES AND INVESTMENTS

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Dec

Dry season

Integrated solutions in Southern Bangladesh

System productivity can be increased from 3-6 tons per hectare to 11-19 tons per hectare, depending on location.

Planning Commission has directed key departments to adopt improved planning, maintenance and management of polders.

Sub-watershed management recommendations taken up by Blue-Gold project and Delta plan sponsored by DGIS.

Wet season

Shrimp Rice + Fish

Provide policy makers, private sector, NGOs and donors with evidence based research to assess the long-term impacts, risks and trade-offs of large-scale investments and strategies in a given region

STRENGTHENING DECISION ANALYSIS

Use information analysis tools to help governments and investors reduce risk and enhance rural farm livelihoods

Merti Aquifer

Working with Government of Kenya to assess impacts of 120 KM pipeline using probabilistic decision-making models.

Convening stakeholders and engaging them in model building has shown potential to overcome some of the controversy surrounding the Merti aquifer project.

Important aquifer for Wajir City, Somali refugees and pastoral communities and outcomes will support their development needs.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Yes we can feed a 9 billion global population, however:

Key to this is how we manage our natural resources on which our entire food system is contingent upon.

There are no magic bullets or quick fixes to the challenges we face.

Our current production systems and approaches to food production need radical changes that place sustainability first.

To achieve this will require greater perseverance, hard decisions and political will.

UNITING AGRICULTURE AND NATURE FOR POVERTY REDUCTION

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