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CAN ONLINE SOCIAL NETWORKS BE USED IN FORWARD-LOOKING STUDIES?
O. Da Costa, R. Cachia, R. CompañóInstitute for Prospective and Technological Studies
Joint Research Centre / European CommissionE-41092 SEVILLA
Second International FTA Seville Seminar
September 2006
Overview
Online Social Networks (OSN): A new social phenomenon A new communication tool
OSN for detecting changing social patterns
OSN Communities on Foresight
Assets & LimitationA graph showing typical network of friends in
Orkut compiled by Orkut2dot
What are online social networks (OSN)?
OSN is a group that primarily interacts via the internet.
As online communities, they are self-organised electronic networks organised around a shared interest or purpose [Rheingold, 1993].
Significant socio-technical change has resulted from the proliferation of OSNs.
Networking by chain effect: « friends » connect with « friends-of-friends » who connect with « friends-of-friends-of-friends »
Figure by J. Layton
Communitiesof interest
Tools forNetwork communication
Networking« Friends »
OSNs: Characteristics
Member’s Profile
Example: Orkut
Orkut: An OSN Case Study
Philosophy: Organically growing network of trusted “friends“ Membership by invitation-only
Features - members can: introduce profiles (photo, hobbies, academic data, etc.) join discussions or create their own “rank” and write testimonials about others
Exponential Growth: Jan 2004 createdFeb 2004: 100 000July 2004: 1.000.000Apr 2005: 5.000.000 Jan 2006: 12.000.000Sep 2006: 29.000.000
OSN: Members Age Structure
Are they a representative selection of group who will be the “shakers and movers” in 20 years from now?
Do OSN reveal novel patterns amongst youngsters that may persist in a wider social scale?
Can we detect already: future change in social patterns or future visions (networked society)?
Orkut Feb 2006
Member are mostly young people in the18-25 age bracket with quite a gender balance.
OSN: A reflection of new social patterns?
Contacting, communicating and keeping in touch Novel spaces for communicating and interaction Difficulties in making yourself heard due to information overload
Changing Relations Roles of media? Collective collaboration Networking across geographical locations Influencing power?
How to detect signals of change?
Systematic screening networks needed. Possible selection criteria Size of networks Level of activity Area of activity
Data-mining of relational databases
OSN: Assets
Relatively high motivation for voluntary Contribution Anticipated Reciprocity, Increased Reputation, Sense of
efficacy, Communication* and Mutual trust)
Cost Relatively low with respect to alternative communication
tools
Flexibility New communities can be created any time No geographical bounders
* The Economies of Online Cooperation: Gifts and Public Goods in Cyberspace, 1999, Peter Kollock
OSN: Some Limitations
Automatic screening procedure difficult: Large networks Data may be incoherent, contradictory, incomplete or non-
codified
Role of coordinator is limited Intrinsic time delay (people to not respond
immediately) and an "open-ended character". Profiles may not always be reliable Privacy concerns Spamming and bugging might influence results Geographical bias (66.3% of Orkut members from
Brasil)
Join our OSN Foresight Community !
“Foresight & Future Studies”, Orkut, www.orkut.com/Community.aspx?cmm=143886
Disclaimer: the authors have no relation or interest in the social network application selected for this undertaking.
Conclusion
OSN New social phenomenon Powerful large-scale communication tool Currently being researched for marketing, investigation in social
sciences and other
Objective of this presentation Initiate debate about the potential of OSN in forward-looking studies
Further work required In-depth investigation of limits, advantages and drawbacks A tested research framework, which could be used as an analytical
tool to conduct forward-looking studies Various research methodologies and complementary approaches
should be taken into consideration
Too early for assessing their potential, but prospects appear promising