Canada and Climate ChangeExpectations for the Future

Turn Down the Heat – Final Project

Climate Change•Humans are warming the climate•Regardless of if we stopped now, some

temperature change is already inevitable

(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)

Business as usual

Aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation

Climate Change•Often we hear about impacts in other

parts of the world•But what about here in Canada?

(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)

Business as usual

Aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation

Changes - Temperature increase•Seasonal temperature warming•More extremely hot days and nights•Fewer unusually cold days and nights•Longer, more frequent and intense heat

waves

Aggressive emissions reduction Business as usual

(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)

Changes - Temperature increase•Seasonal temperature warming•More extremely hot days and nights•Fewer unusually cold days and nights•Longer, more frequent and intense heat

waves

Aggressive emissions reduction Business as usual

(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)

Changes - Percipitation increase•Increases in percipitation•More frequent heavy percipitation•More snow accumulation in winter

Aggressive emissions reduction Business as usual

(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)

Changes - Percipitation increase•Increases in percipitation•More frequent heavy percipitation•More snow accumulation in winter

Aggressive emissions reduction Business as usual

(IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers)

Changes – Snow, Ice, Permafrost•Increases in snow depth with more

percipitation•But snow cover duration will decrease•Ice free Arctic summer could happen by

mid-century•Lake ice duration may decrease by up to a

month by mid-century•Permafrost is warming, though the

coldest permafrost could still last for centuries▫ For more about permafrost, check out an interview with

Prof. Antoni Lewkowicz, expert in permafrost science▫ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmTfqLOmNXc

Changes – Oceans and Sea Level•Sea Level

▫Global rise in sea level (may be over 1 m by the end of the next century)

▫Due to land uplift along Canadian coastlines relative sea rise also depends on location

•Hypoxia▫Less desolved oxygen in water

•Increased acidity▫Ocean water is becoming “corrosive” to

some species and desolving their shells/skeletons

Effects - Extreme weather events•Extreme weather events and the damage

they cause are likely to occur with increasing frequency

Effects - Extreme weather events•Extreme weather events and the damage

they cause are likely to occur with increasing frequency

•What kind of damage can we expect?

Effects - Extreme weather events•Extreme weather events and the damage

they cause are likely to occur with increasing frequency

•What kind of damage can we expect?▫Let’s look at the past to predict the future...

Effects - Extreme weather events

(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)

Storm (including snow)WildfireTornadoHurricaneFlooding

Example losses from extreme weather in the last 15 years

Effects - Extreme weather events

(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)

Storm (including snow)WildfireTornadoHurricaneFlooding

2006 Storm $133 M

2011 Windstorm

$200M2010 Hailstorm

$500M

2004 HailStorm

$166 M

2009 Windstorm $350 M 2009 Hailstorm

$30 M

2013 Storm $850 M

2010 Thunderstorm

$120M

2010 Winter storm s$51 M

Effects - Extreme weather events

(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)

Storm (including snow)WildfireTornadoHurricaneFlooding

2003 Wildfire$200M

2011 Wildire$700 M

Effects - Extreme weather events

(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)

Storm (including snow)WildfireTornadoHurricaneFlooding

2011 Tornado$110M

Effects - Extreme weather events

(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)

Storm (including snow)WildfireTornadoHurricaneFlooding

2011 Hurricane

$130M

2003 Hurricane

$132M

2010 Hurricane

$70M

Effects - Extreme weather events

(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)

Storm (including snow)WildfireTornadoHurricaneFlooding

2013 Flooding$1700M

2005 Flooding$300M

2005 Flooding$60M

Effects - Extreme weather events

(adapted from Warren & Lemmen, 2014)

Storm (including snow)WildfireTornadoHurricaneFlooding

These types of losses are expected to become more frequent with increasing climate change.

Effects - Biodiversity•Already being affected

▫e.g. Mortality rate increase in sockeye salmon due to river temperature increase

•Many species already moving location due to climate changes▫But some can’t adapt or have no where to

go

Effects - Agriculture•Canada may get an increase in growing

season and have increased production•But we will also have increased pests•And damage from extreme weather

events▫E.g. Early warming in 2012 followed by

frost caused 80% reduction in apple blossoms in Ontario for $100M in damage

•And many places we import food from will be adversely affected by this global problem

Effects – Human Health •Expect increase in diseases carried by

pests▫E.g. lyme disease

•Air pollution issues exacerbated•Increased heat wave deaths•Allergy season length increasing

Adaptation•There are many adaptations that will be

necessary in the coming years due to climate change

•Some examples:▫Northern infrastructure must be prepared for

melting permafrost▫Communities must prepare responses to heat

waves to prevent negative health impacts▫Health tools for dealing with increases in climate

related diseases must be developed for communities

▫Protecting habitat zones for moving aminal species▫Moving vulnerable coastal roads inland

Mitigation•What about prevention?•While some climate change is inevitable,

there are multiple end results if we act now

•Canada is a high greenhouse gas emitter per capita – something we can act on

•Federally, not a lot has been done•On provincial and municiple levels,

however, we can still move forward▫E.g. British Columbia’s revenue neutral

carbon tax is being looked on as an example globally and has proven effective in reducing emissions

Other links of interest•http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/•http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg3/•http

://www.nrcan.gc.ca/forests/climate-change/13083

•http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/environment/impacts-adaptation/10761

•http://www.fin.gov.bc.ca/tbs/tp/climate/carbon_tax.htm

References• IPCC, 2014: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and

Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1-32.

• Warren, F.J. and Lemmen, D.S., editors (2014): Canada in a Changing Climate: Sector Perspectives on Impacts and Adaptation; Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 286p.

Additional Image Credits• USFWS, Three polar bears on the Beaufort Sea coast, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 2005

available at http://digitalmedia.fws.gov/• Page 5 of U.S. Government Printing Office Pamphlet 1996-792-501: Lake Washington Ship Canal

Fish Ladder - Drawing of male freshwater phase Sockeye (red) salmon available at http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lake_Washington_Ship_Canal_Fish_Ladder_pamphlet_-_male_freshwater_phase_Sockeye.jpg