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Canada real estate investment forum Toronto, February 4th, 2015 Thank you to our sponsors today
Canada real estate investment forum
Toronto, February 4th, 2015
Thank you to our sponsors today
©2015 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved.
Canada real estate investment forum
Toronto, February 4th, 2015
Simon Fairchild
MSCI Real Estate — IPD
Real estate & IPD products
3
As your business grows global, so does our coverage
Thank you to our members !
Agellan REIT Greystone Managed Investments Ontario Pension Board
Alberta Investment Management Corporation
GWL Realty Advisors OPTrust
Aurion Capital HOOPP Real Estate Oxford Properties / OMERS
Bentall Kennedy Investors Group Realstar Management
Blackwood PartnersIvanhoé Cambridge / Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec
Standard Life Assurance Company
The Cadillac Fairview Corporation / OTPP
LaSalle Investment Management Standard Life Investments
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
Manitoba CSSB Strathallen
Canada Post Pension Plan Manulife Real Estate Sun Life Financial
Canadian Urban Limited Minto Properties Triovest
Fengate Capital Morguard Investments
Fiera Properties Nicola Crosby
Today’s agenda
1. REALpac / IPD Canada Quarterly Property Index
• Index results for 2014, drivers of returns and recent trends
2. Panel discussion
• Facilitated by Michael Brooks, CEO REALpac
3. Announcing the contest winner
• The prediction closest to the actual index result
Today’s agenda
1. REALpac / IPD Canada Quarterly Property Index
• Index results for 2014, drivers of returns and recent trends
2. Panel discussion
• Facilitated by Michael Brooks, CEO REALpac
3. Announcing the contest winner
• The prediction closest to the actual index result
Headline results for calendar year 2014
7
MSCI real estate coverage
8
Net investment by sector and geography
9
Development expenditures by sector and geography
10
11
Canada’s convergence with the global norm continues
Important differences in recent momentum
12
Annual total returns in historical context
13
But what about pricing trends?
14
Listed real estate had a better year than unlisted in 2014
15
It’s too early to tell, but this is likely the case in many markets
2014 total returns by sector and geography
16
Components of return by sector and geography
17
Total returns in 2014 vs the 5-year average
18
Source: MSCI5-YEAR ANNUALIZED
1-Y
EA
R A
NN
UA
LIZ
ED
● = ALL PROPERTY
CANADA — TOTAL RETURNS, 1-YEAR vs 5-YEARGEOGRAPHIC VARIATIONS ACROSS THE NATIONAL MARKET
Vancouver
Victoria
Calgary
Edmonton
Regina
Winnipeg
Toronto
Ottawa/HullMontreal
Halifax
Rest of Canada
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
IMPROVING
SLUGGISH
PEAKING
SLIPPING
NOI yield by sector and geography
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Key features…
5th consecutive year of capital value growth delivers a total return of 7.3% for 2014.
However, Canada underperformed US at 11.4% and UK at 17.9%.
Industrials were the top performing sector, based on superior income return of 6.2%. Offices posted the weakest returns, and only 0.7% capital value appreciation.
Slowdown in Alberta is confirmed, and performance weak in Ottawa/Montreal.
Income yields continue to fall into historically low territory, although premium over government bonds remains.
20
Today’s agenda
1. REALpac / IPD Canada Quarterly Property Index
• Index results for 2014, drivers of returns and recent trends
2. Panel discussion
• Facilitated by Michael Brooks, CEO REALpac
3. Announcing the contest winner
• The prediction closest to the actual index result
Panel discussion
Remco DaalBentall Kennedy
Alain DumaineIvanhoé Cambridge
Heather KirkBMO Capital Markets
Steve TaylorHOOPP
Facilitated by Michael Brooks
Today’s agenda
1. REALpac / IPD Canada Quarterly Property Index
• Index results for 2014, drivers of returns and recent trends
2. Panel discussion
• Facilitated by Michael Brooks, CEO REALpac
3. Announcing the contest winner
• The prediction closest to the actual index result
The contest winner is …
• The light orange bars represent the range of entries by attendees of our events in the last 8 years
• The blue dot represents the actual result delivered in the year
• The 2014 winner is:
Source: IPD
Range of attendee’s predictions for index total return
Key
75th percentile
— Median
Index Result
25th percentile
Michael Rizzello
Canada Post
Thank you to our sponsors today
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