CANBERRA COMMUNITIES RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT www.colliers.com.au/research Limited Housing Opportunities in Canberra Demand for new land releases within Canberra, as well as Googong, remains robust in the Second Half 2012, despite global uncertainty. Population growth, a low unemployment rate, high income levels and limited new housing options have resulted in positive absorption levels for all estates. Over the last six months 1,086 lots have transacted, two new stages and one estate have completely sold out and the first two stages, within the new town of Googong, have been released to the market. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the ACT population rose by 6,500 persons to total 370,700 as at the 2011 December quarter. In terms of percentage growth, the population base rose by 1.8% over a 12 month period, well above the national rate of 1.4%. The ACT recorded the second highest percentage increase, behind Western Australia’s (WA) 2.9%, a very sound result considering WA’s growth is being supported by the state’s mining industry. The “Indicative Land Release Programs: 2012-13 to 2015-16” states the 1.8% population growth rate translates into an estimated annual underlying demand for 3,000 new dwellings. The ACT’s population growth is assisted by the stability of the local economy. The trend unemployment rate for the ACT currently stands at 3.7%, the second lowest rate in the country, just behind WA’s 3.6%. The ACT also continues to record the highest average weekly earnings in Australia, 13% higher than the Northern Territory which is in second place and 29% above national figures. One of the Region’s that has recorded strong population and housing growth is Gungahlin. The development of the Gungahlin Region has been assisted by a 50% increase in the population levels, equivalent to a further 15,775 persons, between the 2006 and 2011 ABS Census data. The average household size has remained reasonably constant, only increasing from 2.8 persons in 2006 to the current 2.9 persons. This population growth has translated into the construction of 7,842 new detached houses, equivalent to growth of 49% over the five year period. The detached housing market represents 71% of the total residential supply in the Gungahlin Region. The number of townhouses developed continues to grow, in line with rising house prices, and between 2006 and 2011 this dwelling type expanded by 42%. Colliers International anticipates demand for this smaller product will continue, not only in the Gungahlin Region but also throughout Canberra, due to the considerably higher entry cost into the detached housing market. This change will be supported by the draft ACT Planning Strategy which aims to increase the number and percentage of attached dwellings in each district by 25%. The development of the Molonglo Valley and Googong will soon follow suit as land settlements occur and construction on individual housing commences. SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL * Includes lots yet to be released. Source: Colliers International Research KEY HIGHLIGHTS RECENT SALES PERFORMANCE OF THE COMMUNITY MARKET MOLONGLO VALLEY GUNGAHLIN GOOGONG • Over the last six months the proportion of lots sold has increase by 5 percentage points to total 76%. • Robust demand resulted in the 189 lots offered in the first stage within Coombs being completely sold within two days. • In excess of 1,080 lots have sold over a six month period. • Demand for the 350m² to 450m² lot has doubled between 2005 and 2011 from 11% to 22%. Coombs Colliers International sold 189 lots within a two day period. RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET INDICATORS - SECOND HALF 2012 District Average Sale Price Sold six Months to August 2011 Number of Lots Remaining* Number of Projects Available Molonglo Valley $358,000 189 0 0 Gungahlin $239,962 707 914 5 Googong N/A 190 32 1
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CANBERRA COMMUNITIES RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT
www.colliers.com.au/research
Limited Housing Opportunities in Canberra Demand for new land releases within Canberra, as well as Googong, remains robust in the Second Half 2012, despite global uncertainty. Population growth, a low unemployment rate, high income levels and limited new housing options have resulted in positive absorption levels for all estates. Over the last six months 1,086 lots have transacted, two new stages and one estate have completely sold out and the first two stages, within the new town of Googong, have been released to the market.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the ACT population rose by 6,500 persons to total 370,700 as at the 2011 December quarter. In terms of percentage growth, the population base rose by 1.8% over a 12 month period, well above the national rate of 1.4%. The ACT recorded the second highest percentage increase, behind Western Australia’s (WA) 2.9%, a very sound result considering WA’s growth is being supported by the state’s mining industry. The “Indicative Land Release Programs: 2012-13 to 2015-16” states the 1.8% population growth rate translates into an estimated annual underlying demand for 3,000 new dwellings.
The ACT’s population growth is assisted by the stability of the local economy. The trend unemployment rate for the ACT currently stands at 3.7%, the second lowest rate in the country, just behind WA’s 3.6%. The ACT also continues to record the highest average weekly earnings in Australia, 13% higher than the Northern Territory which is in second place and 29% above national figures.
One of the Region’s that has recorded strong population and housing growth is Gungahlin. The development of the Gungahlin Region has been assisted by a 50% increase in the population levels, equivalent to a further 15,775 persons, between the 2006 and 2011 ABS Census data. The average household size has remained reasonably constant, only increasing from 2.8 persons in 2006 to the current 2.9 persons. This population growth has translated into the construction of 7,842 new detached houses, equivalent to growth of 49% over the five year period. The detached housing market represents 71% of the total residential supply in the Gungahlin Region. The number of townhouses developed continues to grow, in line with rising house prices, and between 2006 and 2011 this dwelling type expanded by 42%.
Colliers International anticipates demand for this smaller product will continue, not only in the Gungahlin Region but also throughout Canberra, due to the considerably higher entry cost into the detached housing market. This change will be supported by the draft ACT Planning Strategy which aims to increase the number and percentage of attached dwellings in each district by 25%. The development of the Molonglo Valley and Googong will soon follow suit as land settlements occur and construction on individual housing commences.
SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL
* Includes lots yet to be released.Source: Colliers International Research
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
RECENT SALES PERFORMANCE OF THE COMMUNITY MARKET
MOLONGLO VALLEY
GUNGAHLIN
GOOGONG
• Over the last six months the proportion of lots sold has increase by 5 percentage points to total 76%.
• Robust demand resulted in the 189 lots offered in the first stage within Coombs being completely sold within two days.
• In excess of 1,080 lots have sold over a six month period.
• Demand for the 350m² to 450m² lot has doubled between 2005 and 2011 from 11% to 22%.
CoombsColliers International sold 189 lots within a two day period.
RESIDENTIAL LAND MARKET INDICATORS - SECOND HALF 2012
District Average Sale Price
Sold six Months to August 2011
Number of Lots Remaining*
Number of Projects Available
Molonglo Valley $358,000 189 0 0
Gungahlin $239,962 707 914 5
Googong N/A 190 32 1
INFRASTRUCTUREIn July 2012 the proposal for the Majura Parkway was approved and preparation works have now commenced. The Majura Parkway will provide 11.5 kilometres of dual carriageway connecting the Monaro Highway, near Pialligo, with the Federal Highway. The project is due for completion in mid-2016. Ease of mobility for residents in Northern Canberra will improve considerably thus further driving demand for new housing in the Gungahlin Region.
The Edwin Land Parkway extension has opened and the Monaro Highway duplication, between Canberra Avenue and Newcastle Street, in Fyshwick has also been completed. These upgrades will have a positive impact on the future residents in Googong as access to the Queanbeyan CBD and Fyshwick has been enhanced.
Road upgrades that are currently under consideration in Gungahlin which will assist with traffic management and flow to and from the Region include the Horse Park Drive Duplication; Horse Park Drive Mapleton Avenue; The Valley Avenue Extension; Barton Highway/Curran Drive Intersection Upgrade; Gundaroo Drive Duplication; and the Barton Highway/Gundaroo Drive Intersection.
HOUSING SUPPLYThe issues hampering the ACT’s land release program have translated into falling house approval numbers. Over the first six months of 2012 a total of 579 new houses were approved in the northern suburbs of Bonner, Casey, Crace, Forde and Franklin. Assuming the current trend recorded in the first six months of 2012 continues over the remainder of the year, total annual figures are anticipated to be slightly above 2011 levels. However, the expected 2012 figures will remain approximately 21% below the peak levels recorded in 2010.
Source: ABS
HOUSE APPROVALS IN NORTHERN CANBERRA
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No. o
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Bonner Casey Crace Forde Franklin Harrison
Despite demand levels continuing to lift, new supply releases continue to be hindered by environmental assessment delays
Despite the increasing demand for housing, not only evident by a growing population but also the record absorption levels in land releases, new supply levels continue to be hindered by federal environmental assessment delays. In essence, supply levels are not meeting demand, ensuring increasing pressure on housing prices. Looking back at the “LDA’s Statement of Intent: 2010-11” the ACT Government proposed releasing 1,900 lots in the Molonglo Valley. Yet only 714 lots, over three stages, equivalent to 38% of the proposed total supply was brought to market in 2010-11. All the lots released in the Molonglo Valley have been purchased, with the most recent stage in the new suburb of Coombs selling out within a two day period. The ACT Government’s “Indicative Land Release Programs: 2012-13 to 2015-16” proposes to release 950 lots in the Molonglo Valley over 2012-13 and a further 3,365 lots between 2013-14 and 2015-16.
The release of new supply in the Gungahlin Region has also followed a similar trend i.e. environmental constraints have impacted the release pipeline. The “LDA’s Statement of Intent: 2010-11” stated the Gungahlin Region was set to benefit from a further 1,000 lots. Only two new releases eventuated, Broadview with a total 475 lots and Jacka with 98 lots in the first stage. The “Indicative Land Release Programs: 2012-13 to 2015-16” states Gungahlin will see the release of 497 lots in 2012-13 and a further 4,420 lots between 2013-14 and 2015-16. As there has been no improvement to the environmental assessment process the past track record suggests the ACT’s indicative land release program is unlikely to go to plan in relation to the release of standard residential blocks going forward and supply issues will continue.
LIMITED HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES IN CANBERRA CONTINUED
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RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | CANBERRA
Molonglo Valley, Gungahlin and GoogongOver the last six months the Canberra Community market has witnessed the release of 527 lots within three new releases in the Molonglo Valley and Gungahlin. However, such is the level of demand for land within Canberra two new releases have been completely absorbed. Furthermore, the estate of Forde with 1,106 lots is now sold out. The new town of Googong, located approximately 8 kilometres south of Queanbeyan and within NSW, has released a further 222 lots over two stages. Colliers International estimates there are approximately 914 lots currently remaining in Canberra and a further 32 lots in Googong. The total level of supply available is five percentage points below the figure recorded in the First Half 2012 report. In excess of 1,080 lots have sold over a six month period.
The first stage of the second suburb in the Molonglo Valley, Coombs, was recently released to market by Colliers International. Continual demand for product in the Molonglo Valley resulted in the 189 lots being snapped up within a two day period. Purchasers within Coombs included first home buyers as well as upgraders. The average sale price was $358,000 whilst the average lot size was 520m². The success of Coombs follows on from Wright, the first suburb in the Molonglo Valley. Colliers International sold 100 lots in Wright within one day and an additional 228 lots within a matter of weeks via ballot.
In Gungahlin the LDA sold the first stage (98 lots) in Jacka via ballot. The majority of the purchasers in Jacka were first home buyers, who were attracted to the affordability of the estate. In comparison to Coombs, the average sale price was $235,412 and the average lot size was 478m². The lower average sale price is not only reflective of the size of the lots but also the distance to the Canberra CBD.
As the release of new supply in Canberra has been hampered due to environmental issues the first two stages released in Googong North have been positively received by the market. Of the 222 lots released to date approximately 86% have been absorbed. The wide lot size range, 344m² to 998m², appealed to all buyer types and settlement for the initial stages is anticipated to occur in the Second Half 2013. The buyers mostly comprised a mix of first, second and third home buyers from Queanbeyan and Jerrabomberra who are seeking the opportunity to construct a new home. Buyers from the southern part of Canberra have also displayed interest in Googong due to the low probability of new land releases eventuating in their locality. Stage three will be released in September and the average lot size and price is 566m² and $244,000, well below recent average sale prices achieved in Coombs and Jacka. Upon completion the new township of Googong, which is a Joint Venture between Mirvac and CIC Australia Ltd, will comprise of 5,438 lots.
Source: Colliers International Research
ACTIVITY - RESIDENTIAL ESTATES
Estate Suburb District Status Year Commenced Total Lots Sold to Date Remaining % Sold
Coombs Coombs Molonglo Valley U/C 2012 189 189 0 100%
RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT | SECOND HALF 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | CANBERRA
Source: Colliers International Research
SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM SUPPLY OPTIONS
New Supply PipelineWhilst numerous rural suburbs have been earmarked as future residential development sites the likelihood of several of them proceeding in the short-medium term is becoming increasingly scant due to environmental hurdles. The impediments associated with the environmental assessment process has delayed much of the land release program. In some instances the developable area has been considerably scaled back. For example, the proposed number of lots in Throsby, in the Gungahlin Region, has been reduced from 3,400 to 1,200-1,500. Furthermore, there is no release date identified on the “Indicative Land Release Programs: 2012-13 to 2015-16” suggesting the site will not be developed in the short-medium term.
Environmental issues have also delayed Moncrieff in the Gungahlin Region with an Environmental Impact Statement required which is estimated to take 12-18 months to complete. The soil composition in Kenny is likely to result in the planned 4,200 lots falling to 2,100 lots. If the land releases noted in the “Indicative Land Release Programs” do go ahead the probability of the actual number of lots identified being developed is unlikely to be a reality.
Other future urban areas planned to be released in the Gungahlin Region include Jacka (North) which is also undergoing environmental studies and offers 175 hectares and Taylor with 302 hectares. Kinlyside, west of Casey, also has 199 hectares. Whilst these sites are proposed to be transformed from the current rural land use into residential lots, alongside mixed-uses and open space, if and when these sites are released to market is yet to be determined.
Despite the success recorded in the Molonglo Valley, no release date for the next stage is available. Supply is not being brought forward to keep up with the ever increasing demand. Upon completion Coombs is expected to provide approximately 651 residential lots, 21 multi-unit residential lots (1,982 dwellings), 5 mixed-use blocks (378 dwellings) and community lots. Coombs will be released to the market over four stages. The Molonglo Valley land release program is planned to occur over 25 to 30 years.
The total number of lots proposed for the new town of Googong has been revised upwards to 5,774 in total. Stage three of Googong is set to be released to the market in September 2012. The 57 lots in stage three will range from 347m² to 877m² with prices between $182,000 and $321,000. The average lot size is 582m² whilst the average lot price is $248,000. Demand for lots in Googong is set to rise as the NSW First Home Owner Grant (New Homes) scheme of $15,000, commences on 1 October 2012. Currently purchasers in NSW also benefit from the First Home-New Home scheme which provides stamp duty exemptions on new homes up to $550,000 and on vacant lots up to $350,000. For houses and vacant lots priced up to $650,000 and $450,000 respectively reductions on the stamp duty costs are also available. Non-first home buyers purchasers can take advantage of the $5,000 grant for those who build a new dwelling. Googong provides purchasers an affordable entry point into the marketplace and coupled with the NSW Government rebates sale levels are anticipated to lift.
The following graph identifies the proportion of lots remaining in the Communities in Canberra and Googong i.e. the short to medium term supply. As there is no certainty surrounding the timing or the number of lots pertaining to the sites in the “Indicative Land Release Programs” they have been excluded.
Springbank Rise 50%
Casey 46%
Broadview27%
Crace14%
Googong North (Stages 1 & 2)
3%
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General Land Market •The following analysis includes the sales of
vacant lots over 200m², in Northern Canberra, that have settled and been recorded on RP Data as at December 2011. Previous figures have also been revised due to time lags between exchange, settlement and data availability. Sales that were sold in one line or not at arm’s length have been excluded.
•Between 2005 and 2011 approximately 3,367 vacant lots have sold and settled in Crace, Casey, Forde, Bonner, Franklin and Harrison.
•The lack of supply is clearly demonstrated in the Second Half 2011 as only 246 lots transacted, a 49% decline over the six month period. This is the lowest result recorded since the Second Half 2008, during the GFC when only 156 lots were sold.
•The strength of the Forde market continues with 84 sales reported over the Second Half 2011, a 45% increase over the six month period. Since 2006 a total of 1,168 lots have sold in Forde.
•The median sale price for vacant land in the Northern Canberra suburbs fell by 3% from the peak of $257,000 to the current $249,000 over the six month period.
•Franklin recorded the highest median sale price of $300,000 in the Second Half 2011, an increase of 5% and 14% over the six and 12 month period.
•Despite the median price declining by 11% over the six month period from the peak of $298,000 as at First Half 2011, Forde reported the second highest median price of $265,000 in the Second Half 2011.
VACANT LOT TURNOVER BY SUBURB: 2005 TO JUNE 2011
Bonner 5%
Casey25%
Harrison15%
Franklin9%
Forde35%
Crace11%
Source: RP Data
Source: RP Data
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H105
H205
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H107
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H111
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Bonner Casey Crace Forde Franklin Harrison Median Sale Price
DEMAND AND MEDIAN PRICES FOR VACANT LOTS IN NORTHERN CANBERRA
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•Since 2005 the most popular lot size range purchased is 450m² to 550m² with 34% of all sales. However, the proportion of sales in this lot size range has wavered over the years from 42% in 2005, to 28% in 2008 and 2009 to the current 43% for 2011.
•The popularity of the smaller lot continues to grow with turnover of the 250m² to 350m² lot rising from 6% in 2005 to 10% in 2011. Demand for the 350m² to 450m² lot has doubled from the 11% in 2005 to 22% in 2011.
•Due to rising affordability issues turnover of the 550m² to 650m² lot has fallen from 26% in 2005 to 14% in 2011.
•The $200,000 to $300,000 price range continues to dominate the Northern Canberra suburbs. In 2007, 56% of sales fell within this price range and in 2011 this figure had risen to 77%, the highest proportion to date.
•Due to limited supply releases and the subsequent price growth, associated with pent up demand, the number of sales in the $300,000 to $400,000 price range has grown from 6% in 2007 to 13% in 2011.
Source: RP Data
NUMBER OF VACANT LOT SALES BY PRICE RANGE IN NORTHERN CANBERRA
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H209 H110 H210 H111 H211
No. o
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$100k-$200k $200k-$300k $300k-$400k $400k-$500k
* The median sale price has been skewed as 26 of the 31 lots sold were 250m².Source: RP Data
GENERAL MARKET INDICATORS - VACANT LAND
SuburbMedian Sale Price
Half YearlyChange Annual Change
H111 H211
Bonner $251,000 $232,500 -7% 6%
Casey $229,500 $257,500 12% 14%
Crace $280,000 $254,250 -9% -7%
Forde $298,000 $265,000 -11% 0%
Franklin $285,750 $300,000 5% 14%
Harrison $259,000 $140,444* -46% -53%
GENERAL LAND MARKET CONTINUED
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General House Market
DEMAND AND MEDIAN PRICES FOR HOUSES IN NORTHERN CANBERRA
Bonner Casey Crace Forde Franklin Harrison Median Sale Price
Source: RP Data
•The following analysis includes the sales of new and established houses on lots over 200m², in Northern Canberra, that have settled and been recorded on RP Data as at December 2011. Previous figures have also been revised due to time lags between exchange, settlement and data availability. Sales that were sold in one line or not at arm’s length have been excluded.
•Between 2005 and 2011 approximately 2,310 houses have sold and settled in Crace, Casey, Forde, Bonner, Franklin and Harrison.
•The number of house transactions declined by 4% over the six month period to total 246.
•Yet again Harrison dominated the housing market with a total of 1,035 sales since 2005, equivalent to 45% of the transactions in Northern Canberra.
•Over the six month period the median house sale price achieved in the Northern Canberra suburbs has declined by 1% from the peak of $540,000 in the First Half 2011 to $535,000 in the Second Half 2011. Since 2005 the median house price has risen by 30%.
•Despite recording a 3% decline over the six month period Forde had the highest median house price of $570,000 in the Second Half 2011. Casey recorded the second highest median house price of $540,000, equivalent to 1% growth over the six months.
•Crace reported the highest percentage growth (5%) over the six month period.
Source: RP Data
HOUSE TURNOVER BY SUBURB: 2005 TO 2011
Bonner
5%
Casey
14%
Harrison44%
Franklin21%
Forde12%
Crace4%
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Source: RP Data
NUMBER OF HOUSE SALES BY PRICE RANGE IN NORTHERN CANBERRA
•The growing demand for the smaller housing lot continues. In 2005 the 250m² to 350m² and the 350m² to 450m² lots represented 8% and 18% of all sales and in 2011 the market share of these lot ranges has grown to 14% and 26% respectively.
•In comparison the popularity of the 450m² to 550m² and 550m² to 650m² lot size range has declined from 50% and 16% respectively of all sales in 2005 to the current 37% and 12%.
•The cost of entry into the Northern Canberra housing market has risen over the years. In 2005, 26% of all sales were in the $300,000 to $400,000 price range whilst in 2011 this figure had fallen to 1%.
•The $400,000 to $500,000 price range has also recorded a decline in the proportion of sales from 74% of all transactions in 2005 to 25% in 2011.
•In 2006 only 7% of sales were in the $500,000 to $600,000 range, the first year sales were recorded in this category, and in 2011 the proportion had risen to 46%. Between 2010 and 2011 the $500,000 to $600,000 range has grown by 11 percentage points. The ever increasing housing cost explains the popularity of the smaller lot.
•The first transaction in the $600,000 to $700,000 price range first occurred in 2007 with only 5% of all sales. In 2011 the proportion of turnover in this market had grown to 18%.
GENERAL HOUSE MARKET CONTINUED
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OutlookThe fundamentals driving demand in the Canberra housing market continue to remain favourable. Australia’s capital city currently records the highest weekly average earnings, the second lowest unemployment rate and the second highest annual population growth rate in the nation. These drivers have resulted in the first land release in Coombs and Jacka selling out. Demand for product in the Molonglo Valley is so high 189 lots transacted within a two day period. Yet despite the evidence revealing a high level of demand for new housing options, land releases are limited.
If the past is anything to go by the Canberra land market will be faced with uncertainty going forward. The uncertainty is in regards to the timing of the next land release. Delays associated with environmental obstructions are leading to the land release program being rescheduled. Furthermore, the implied number of lots initially identified in the “Indicative Land Release Programs” and the actual number of lots that can be developed is often very different, adding further pressure to the supply pipeline.
Pent-up demand will continue to place tension on the housing market unless new sites are released to the market. Colliers International anticipates this imbalance in the demand and supply equation will result in both land and house price growth in the short and medium term. The rising cost of entry into the housing market will give rise to the smaller lots i.e. lots ranging in size from 250m² to 450m² will become the norm, not the exception. The number of completed, attached dwellings being offered to the market will also increase as developers seek to provide further types of affordable housing.
Absorption levels in Googong are expected to lift as buyers are spurred on by the new NSW First Home Owner Grant which comes into effect on 1 October 2012. The added $15,000 incentive, coupled with the First Home-New Home scheme which is offered in NSW and the lower entry cost, when compared to the Canberra market, will drive buyers to the new town centre. The recently completed Monaro Highway duplication will also assist buyers with their purchasing decision. If delays to the ACT land supply program continue for the foreseeable future Canberra buyers are likely to be further enticed to Googong as demand is set to continue, regardless of the issues surrounding the supply pipeline.
Colliers International does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections.
Colliers International will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. COPYRIGHT - Colliers International 2012.
