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1 Defense Commercial Aviation Homeland Security Medical Instrumentation Sustainment & Support Capstone Presentation – Kelly Schmutzler Kay April 7, 2016
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Defense
Commercial Aviation
Homeland Security
Medical Instrumentation
Sustainment & Support
Capstone Presentation – Kelly Schmutzler Kay April 7, 2016
2 Elbit Systems of America Proprietary Information
Business Problem
Improve Supplier On-Time Delivery Metrics
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We need to understand: Is this a supplier issue? Or an Elbit data issue?
3 Elbit Systems of America Proprietary Information
Excel Qlikview
Real Time Dashboard
Published Report
Data Collection
Project Design ACTIVITIES
Plan: Overview of Activity, Decisions & Outcomes
OUTCOMES Consolidated Data
Disparate Data
DECISIONS
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Value
2015 Supplies Spend
$368 Million
The Key to Improving the On-Time Delivery %:
Understanding the data
5 Elbit Systems of America Proprietary Information
Process to Obtain Data – SME’s
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Supply Chain
Supply Chain Oracle
Discoverer
Quality Oracle
Supply Chain Baan
Supply Chain VP
Quality Baan
Carbone, T. D&B
D&B
Supply Chain IFS
Manning, John
Supply Chain Business Objects
Quality Baan
Quality IFS
Quality
Dun & Bradstreet
6 Elbit Systems of America Proprietary Information
Process to Obtain Data - Systems
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Systems Experts
Quality Baan
Business Objects
Systems IFS
Systems Oracle
Systems Baan
Systems Lotus Notes
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Data Challenges - MULTIPLE
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Sources Sites People
• •
•
• •
Supply Chain Oracle
Discoverer
Quality Oracle
Supply Chain Baan
Quality Baan
Quality Baan
Business Objects
Quality IFS
Systems IFS
Supply Chain VP
Systems Lotus Notes
Systems Oracle
Systems Baan
Quality Baan
Carbone, T. D&B
D&B
Supply Chain IFS
Manning, John Supply Chain
Business Objects
9 Elbit Systems of America Proprietary Information
Additional Data Challenges
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Project Start . . . .
Project Goal
The most time consuming part of Capstone!
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Supplier On Time Delivery (OTD) Modeling
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Decision Tree • RFP process
• Supplier reduction
Cluster Analysis
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Complex Part is a part costing more than $5,000.
Supplier
Spec Part is a part built based on an engineering drawing.
Performance over the Years has improved since we began measuring and monitoring.
Lead Time is the time between order and delivery. Supplier
The Elbit Company (out of the 3) driving lower performance.
Elbit Buyer Name indicates a specific buyer drives performance.
Variable Selection
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Variables driving the prediction
If the Promise Date is not filled in by Elbit buyer the parts are Late 100%.
D&B Failure Score is a predictive indicator of business insolvencies. Low #’s = High Risk. Supplier
D&B Viability Score & SSI are predictors of financial stress.
Supplier
D&B SER (Supplier Evaluation Risk Score) predicts likelihood supplier will have financial stress.
Supplier
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Decision Tree - Tree
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1
8 9
2
7
6 5
2
3 4
2
4 8 5
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Numbered by ‘Greatest Impact to On-Time Delivery’
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Promise Date – incomplete parts are Late 100%
Failure Score of 0-5 • On Time 65% • Late 35%
Failure Score of 6-8 or Missing • On Time 83% • Late 17%
Company 750 or 700 • On Time 69% • Late 31%
Company 777 • On Time 45% • Late 55%
Promise Date completed • On Time 75% • Late 25%
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Buyer Name
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Promise Date Completed
Promise Date Missing
Failure Score 0-5
Failure Score 6-8 or Missing
Buyer Name Company
FMF
-------Lead Time-------
Failure Score 6
Failure Score 7,8 or Missing
<140days >140days
------Complex Part ------
0 or missing
Year 5,4,3 or Missing 0,1,2
------------------------Failure Score ------------------------
Lead Time
Buyer Name
Complex Part
Spec Part
Company-FTW or TAL
Before 2014.5
Decision Tree - Map
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Buyer Name
1
1
2
3 4
5 6 6
2 2
2
2
4 3
4
7
8 5
1
Numbered by ‘Greatest Impact to On-Time Delivery’
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Decision Tree
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DECISION
On-Time Late
TRUTH On-Time TP=9,242 FP=2,064
Late FN=11,646 TN=42,828
Misclassification Rate = 20.8%
Sensitivity = 44.2%
False Positive Rate = 4.6%
Specificity = 95.4%
Tool is better at identifying suppliers as late, then predicting suppliers that will be on-time.
Model detection of ON-TIME
Model detection of LATE
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Adjusted Decision Tree
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WITHOUT Internal Company Issues: WITH Internal Company Issues:
1. Promise Date 2. Failure Score 3. Company 4. Buyer Name 5. Complex Part
1. Failure Score 2. Lead Time 3. State 4. Viability Score 5. Complex Part
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Where are most of the deliveries coming from?
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Model Performance
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Buyers
Internal Issues Company
SATISFIED
Model Performance was very ENLIGTENING to management!
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Value: Improve On-Time Delivery Metrics
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Total improvement 15.5% over 3 years.
4.6% improvement
10.9% improvement
15.5%
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Conclusions
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Impact
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Impact
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Impact
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Organizational Impact
• Improve supplier performance
• Recognize exceptional performance
• Improve supplier communications
• Identify suppliers with developmental needs
27 Elbit Systems of America Proprietary Information
Deliverable to Elbit: Qlikview Application
Let’s go look at the Qlikview application.
