Exploring the Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health: A Heat Vulnerability Analysis of Globeville, Elyria-Swansea, and Commerce City using Geographic Information SystemsKatherine C. VegaMaster of Public Health, Colorado State University

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Overview• Background• Project• Methods• Results• Next Steps

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Climate Change• Extreme weather events more frequent and/or

severe around the world.• From 2011 to 2013, the U.S. experienced 32

weather events that each caused at least $1 billion in damages.

NOAA, 2013

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Extreme Heat

NOAA, 2016

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Extreme Heat in the U.S.

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NOAA, 2015

Health Impacts of Extreme Heat

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Worsened Asthma

Fainting

Heat Stroke

Headaches

Heat and the Built Environment • Urban heat island effect

High pop. density

Building material

that retains heat

High rates of heat related

morbidity and mortality

Karl et al., 2010

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Vulnerable Populations

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Mission: To bring about the sustained improvement of the physical environment and promote health and well-being through community-based partnerships and action.

Services Include:• Installing attic insulation • Tree plantings• Bike Give-Aways

GWD, 2016

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Project Objective• Assess vulnerabilities to extreme heat events by

exploring factors in the built environment using geographic information system (GIS) and key informant interviews. • Mixed-methods study

Focus Populations:GlobevilleElyria-SwanseaCommerce City

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MethodsData Collection

• GIS Maps• Variables:

Tree CanopyUrban Heat Island EffectHousing StockMedian Household Income

% Below Poverty Age DistributionCrime Rates

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Methods cont.Key Informant Interviews• Variables

Perceived ThreatPerceived BarriersSelf-EfficacyResponse Efficacy

Champion & Skinner, 2008

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Results

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Data Source: Tree Canopy Assessment 2013 – Block Groups

Land Use Percentages

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Conclusions• Focus populations are

disproportionately affected by extreme heat events due to built environment factors.

• Large areas of urban heat islands• Sparse tree canopy in residential areas• Lack of weatherized homes (Globeville

and Elyria-Swansea)

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Next Steps• Develop a Plan of Action to influence:• Denver Climate Adaptation Plan • Emergency Management Plans• Hazard Mitigation Plans• Comprehensive Plans

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Limitations• GIS data availability• Incorrect data uploaded

• GIS software compatibility• Unable to pilot test survey

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Acknowledgements• Sheryl Magzamen, Ph.D., M.P.H.• GroundWork Denver Staff• Wendy Hawthorne• Melake Getabecha• Samantha Villatoro

• Dr. Lorann Stallones, Ph.D., M.P.H.

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References• NOAA (2013). Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climatic Data

Center.• NOAA. (2015). State Annual and Seasonal Time Series. Retrieved April 25, 2016, from

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/state-temps/• NOAA (2016). State of the Climate: Global Analysis for February 2016, published online March 2016, retrieved on April 25, 2016 from

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/gobal/201602• Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2015). Extreme Heat Prevention Guide. Retrieved from http://

www.bt.cdc.gov.hslezproxy.ucdenver.edu/disasters/extremeheat/heat_guide.asp.• Champion V.L., & Skinner C.S. (2008). The Health Belief Model. In Health behavior and health education theory, research, and practice

(4th ed., pp. 45-65). San Francisco, California: Jossey-Bass. • Choudhary, E., & Vaidyanathan, A. (2014). Heat Stress Illness Hospitalizations-Environmental Public Health Tracking Program, 20 States,

2001–2010. MMWR Surveillance Summaries 2014; 63(13), 1-10.• Chowdhury, P.D., C. E. Haque & S.M. Driedger (2012) Public versus expert knowledge and perception of climate change-induced heat

wave risk: a modified mental model approach. Journal of Risk Research, 15:2, 149-168, DOI: 10.1080/13669877.2011.601319• Merrill, C.T. (Thomson Reuters), Miller, M (Student), and Steiner, C. (AHRQ). (2008). Hospital Stays Resulting from Excessive Heat and Cold

Exposure Due to Weather Conditions in U.S. Community Hospitals, 2005. HCUP Statistical Brief #55. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Rockville, MD. http://www.hcup-us.ahrq.gov/reports/statbriefs/sb55.pdf

• Karl, T.R., Melillo, J.M., and Peterson, T.C. (eds.) (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, New York.

• McGeehin, M.A., & Mirabelli M. (2001). The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environmental Health Perspectives, 109(Suppl 2), 185-189.

• Groundwork Denver. (2016). Mision and History. Retrieved April 25, 2016 from http://groundworkcolorado.org/about/mission-and-history/• Witte, K. (1992). Putting the fear back into fear appeals: The extended parallel process model. Communication Monographs, 59, 330-349.

Images and Graphs• https://www.sitstayread.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/denver.jpg• http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110907/images/weathers450.jpg• http://www.sciencecare.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Heat-Stroke.jpg• https://www.doomandbloom.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/heat-stroke-1.jpg• http://medicalxpress.com/news/2016-04-extreme-precipitation-linked-severe-asthma.html• http://www.wisegeek.com/what-are-the-common-causes-of-headache-and-weakness.htm#• http://images.wisegeek.com/old-man.jpg• https://casemed.case.edu/fammed/img/family_131902826.jpg• http://cdn.grid.fotosearch.com/corbis/DGT096/42-18054184.jpg• http://littlepeanutmag.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/SLP_PotteryBarnKids_SummerParty3.jpg• https://www.thinglink.com/scene/756099807562432512

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Questions?

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