Carbon-constrained markets – business risks and opportunities through sustainable energy.
Prof Ray Wills
Director and PartnerDuda&Wills
Chief AdviserSustainable Energy Association of Australia
Adjunct ProfessorThe University of Western Australia
Adoption of technology
The natural turnover and retirement of appliances, buildings and vehicles can bring about a modest penetration of sustainable energy in the next ten years.
However, adoption of new technology is often not just ‘natural’
The transition to sustainable energy, like many new technology shifts, will be more rapid with changes favoured by: policy measures and regulation; consumer sentiment; pricing advantage.
Roger’s diffusion curve
Technology adoption rates – US Will electric cars be dishwashers or VCRs? (Will there ever be any more dishwashers??)
NY Times
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates - vehicles
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption - manufacturers
Zoepf 2011
Technology adoption rates
Can historic deployment rates be used to describe future technologies? Expect some similarities – just faster!
Small-scale deployment for approximately five years- exponential growth and an inflection point ten or more years after first application
Is there an opportunity for disruptive technology entry? Beginnings of disruptive innovation may be in market
innovations, Vehicle ownership model (eg Better Place) could rapidly change
the how and what is purchased Roof top solar – companies may own the panels on your roof
Technology adoption rates
Marked decrease in developmental lag Innovation/development of new products Supply side capabilities Market competition Growing consumer expectations Higher level of communication between
consumers - blogspace Fleet/building/operations managers – and CFOs Regulation Energy security
Trends in car prices and CO2 2002-2010
How clean are Europe’s cars?
Wake up and smell the roses
Buggy whips -> combustion engine -> EVs? (Electric) typewriter -> word processor -> PC PC -> desktop -> laptop -> tablet Landline -> mobile -> smartphone Record shops Vinyl -> CD -> (Apple Store) Book Shops Boutique -> mega -> (Amazon) Retail shopping Boutique-> chain/mega ->
Internet Energy -> chopping wood -> coal -> solar
Global electricity investment growth
Global renewables
Renewable energy growth
Data IEA
Global renewables 2013?
Data UNEP
Global electricity …
Global electricity growth - Europe
Australian renewables 2011…
The transformation of Australia’s energy mix has begun – in 2011 new electricity generation construction 25% solar, 31% gas and 33% wind.
Coal-fired power currently 75% of Australia’s total generation - in 2011 only 14% of new investment was coal.
This is still behind the average world-wide investment in renewable energy – China’s economy 8 times larger than Australia, investment in renewables over 20 times larger!
Australian electricity …
Data ABARES
Australian electricity consumption 2012…
Australian electricity consumption 2012…
Data AEMO
Electricity market projections – WA
Solar on Australian homes
Solar on WA homes
City of Cockburn
Sustainable energy and energy efficiency
Energy efficiency in all forms Distributed, renewable energy Known costs, resource life 1000++ years Stored energy in commodities, desal Energy storage key to:
improved energy delivery increased reliability reduced emissions
Technology energy use
www.epri.com
Global electricity growth
Rapid change - Personal mobility
Fuel efficiency, other energy sources Transport Energy storage key New technologies may be disruptive
Private transport
Electric mass transit
Commercialvehicles
Smith Newton electric truck Mega electric diesel hybridsLondon BusHaul Pak + EarthmoverMitsubishi FusoHonda prime moverOshkosh Military Vehicle
Flying and floating fuels
February 25, 2008 – Virgin Atlantic Stages the First Biofuel Flight
October 30, 2007 - U.S.A.F. Tests New Synthetic Fuel on Plane
February 14, 2011 – Qantas follows US Military to algae biofuels
September 13, 2011 – US Navy announces by 2016 Green Strike Group, powered by renewable diesel-electric engines, nuclear power and aviation biofuels, is able to operate independent of fossil fuel supply line threat or disruption
Smart grids, smart houses (and farms) Integrated energy planning
Smart grids to coordinate the actions of devices such as loads & generators
Green cities
Global Tianjin Eco-City China Ulsan Ecocity Korea Masdar City UAE
Australia City of Sydney – 70% CO2 reduction by 2030 City of Melbourne Stirling City Centre, Perth City of Fremantle Yanchep – 2 x 100 000
Local government critical
www.seaaus.com.au
