Carbon Countdown

8/3/2019 Carbon Countdown

1/36 2008 THE GLOBAL COMMONS INSTITUTE

THE GLOBAL COMMONS INSTITUTE

THE CAMPAIGN FOR

CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE

CARBON COUNTDOWN


2/3622008 THE GLOBAL COMMONS INSTITUTE



CONTENTS

Approaching the point o no return

2 Global action on climate change

Contraction & Convergence the proportionate response

4 Corporate action on climate change

5 Carbon Countdown campaign

6 Global Commons Institute

7 Links

8 Climate risk assessment

9 C&C technical denition

0 C&C support

Insurance industr views o C&C



Contraction & Convergence and the C&C logo are th e Trade Mark o GCI.

This is to protect the integrit o the concept.

DECLARATION FOR CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

has the objective o sae and stable greenhouse gas concentrations in

the atmosphere based on the principles o precaution and euit.

Contraction & Convergence (C&C) is the rightsbased, global

climate mitigation ramework, proposed to the United Nations b

the Global Commons Institute (GCI) to achieve that objective.

It enables greenhouse gas scenarios or a sae climate to be calculated and

universall shared b negotiation, enabling policies and measures to be

organised internationall at rates that avoid dangerous global climate change.

Rates o contraction and convergence ma be revised periodicall

as scientic understanding o the relationship between rising

concentrations and their impacts on our world develops.

C&C PROPOSES: -

(a) A ullterm contraction budget or global emissions

consistent with stabilising atmospheric concentrations o

greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a preagreed concentration

maimum deemed to be sae b the UNFCCC

(b) The international sharing o this budget as a predistribution o

entitlements that result rom a negotiable rate o linear convergenceto eual shares per person globall b an agreed date.

These entitlements will be internationall tradable.

We, the undersigned, endorse the above and encourage members o the

international communit to do likewise so that adoption o the Contraction

& Convergence strategic ramework is achieved as soon as possible.

2

4

5

6

7



APPROACHING THE POINT OF NO RETURN

The scientic evidence is now overwhelming: global climate change

presents ver serious social, environmental and economic risks and it

demands an urgent global response. This was the message sent b leaders

o over one hundred and t global business organisations to the United

Nations Climate Change Conerence in Bali in December 2007.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had just published its

Snthesis Report, in conclusion o the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the

science o climate change. It issued a warning that, with current climate changemitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG

emissions will continue to grow and that, without urgent action, anthropogenic

global warming could lead to impacts that are abrupt or irreversible.

The IPCC has sent a clear and uneuivocal message to us all: we are

not doing enough soon enough to avoid dangerous climate change

and time is o the essence. James Hansen, one o the worlds leading

authorities on climate change, has warned that the Earths climate

is nearing a point o no return beond which it will be impossible to

avoid climate change with ar ranging undesirable conseuences.

We must have a global agreement on emissions control that is sucient to solve

the problem aster than we are creating it. Unless we do, sustainable development

is impossible. Concentration and emissions reduction targets must be embodied

in an international agreement ramed to meet the objective o the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) i the markets

and new technolog are to become the mainspring o the new lowcarbon

econom. In the absence o this agreement, we will continue to struggle under

the greatest market ailure ever seen diagnosed in the Stern Review o 2006.

Contraction & Convergence (C&C) is the oundation o a remed

or this ailure. With this strategic ramework, it will be possible

to secure a sae and stable level o GHG concentrations in the

atmosphere and avert the greatest threat acing humanit.


C&C is ounded on IPCC climate science and embraces the UNFCCC

principles o euit, precaution and sustainabilit. It has wide

international support amongst businesses, proessional bodies, academic

institutions, aith groups, national, regional and local governments.

C&C schedules a global reduction o emissions (contraction) that keeps CO2

concentrations rom rising beond an agreed sae level. It proposes emission

entitlements or ever countr and a scheduled convergence to eual per

person entitlements b an agreed date. In this wa, convergence reduces

the carbon shares o the developed overemitting countries sharpl until

the converge with the (temporaril rising) shares o developing underemitting countries. The latter will have the right to sell their surplus carbon

shares to wealthier nations. Carbon emissions trading will encourage rapid

investment in technolog and inrastructure or lowcarbon energ.

C&C orms the basis or the comprehensive United Nations

agreement that corporate leaders are demanding. It is ull

UNFCCCcompliant, giving us the capabilit to:

Constrain the level to which GHG concentrations and the

conseuential damages will rise in the uture.

Bring together developed and developing countries under

a common ullterm action plan.

Address the worsening asmmetr o global economic

development.

CARBON COUNTDOWN CAMPAIGN

Carbon Countdown is an

international campaign to avert

dangerous rates o climate

change. It ocuses corporate

support or Contraction &

Convergence (C&C) on the

UNFCCC decisionmaking

process throughout the

present critical period o

negotiation. Corporate leadersare called on to endorse the

campaign on behal o their

organisations and to encourage

others to join as well.



The Carbon Countdown international campaign ocuses

corporate support or C&C on the UNFCCC decisionmaking

process throughout the current critical negotiations.

The campaign displas the C&C logo and seeks the commitment

o organisations carring the logo to propagate the case or C&C

b endorsing the C&C Declaration shown on page our.

The campaigns essential message is that treating climate change as a global

emergenc is now long overdue and responding proportionatel is vital;

that it is imperative to go beond the merel aspirational character o the

current UNFCCC debate and ocus on the rationale or solving the problem

aster than we are creating it. Declaring or C&C demonstrates this.

CORPORATE LEADERSHIP AND SUSTAINABILITy

The science is clear that the uture o our societ is at risk. Climate damages

are alread growing at twice the rate o the econom. This has been

described as the biggest market ailure in histor and our common uture

securit and prosperit are increasingl vulnerable. To correct this we must

start making deep cuts in our emissions within the net ve to ten ears in

an internationall coordinated manner and this will see the start o what

has been termed the biggest inrastructural change in human histor.

However, individual and collective actions to mitigate climate change will remain

inadeuate unless we enact completel the ullterm international agreement

proposed b the UNFCCC to which our governments are signatories. There is a

real and growing danger that an local successes are hostage to global ailure. Our

corporate social responsibilit and sustainable development programmes, indeed

our own organisations and institutions themselves, are compromised b this.

We could have as little as t ears let to reduce our carbon emissions to

netero globall to achieve the ullterm objective o the UNFCCC. Whatever

the rate, this will inevitabl reuire a complete contraction and convergence

event or greenhouse gas emissions i we are to achieve the objective. With so

little time let, we can no longer aord the aspirational patchwork approachollowed so ar b man powerul policmakers, their advisors and others.

Corporate leaders need a clear and rational ramework or targets and the

enabling measures now needed in order to lead their organisations along

the right path. Corporate leaders are justied in demanding a timel and

proportionate international response rom governments. The understand

markets and their potential or driving a lowcarbon econom. The are in a

strong position to infuence government policmakers and convince them

o the need or a global ramework within which the markets must operate.

Corporate leaders have a dut o care to act and supporting the Carbon

Countdown campaign enables them to demonstrate this collectivel.

Those who are seen to act now in this wa, show international leadership

or their organisations. The will set an eample with clear insight

and strong ethical standards or organisations everwhere.

B supporting the Carbon Countdown campaign the emerging coalition

o subscribers ocus this infuence. In turn, the campaign supports its

members b giving wide visibilit to this competence and their commitment

to it. Campaign reports and promotions will displa their identities to UN

organisations, national governments, trade and proessional bodies and

man others around the world, helping to demonstrate that it is in ever

ones interest so to act i continuing market ailure is to be overcome.

GLOBAL ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change



2(UNFCCC) was agreed b 65 governments in 992, with the objective

o halting the rising concentration o greenhouse gas (GHG) in the

atmosphere to avoid dangerous rates o climate change.

The Global Commons Institute (GCI) has been a contributor to the UNFCCC process

since its inception. The Institute is the originator o Contraction & Convergence

(C&C), its proposed strategic ramework or climate change mitigation. C&C has

wide international support amongst businesses, proessional bodies, academic

institutions, aith groups, national, regional and local governments and others.

Governments who are signatories o the UNFCCC have an obligationto compl with the Convention. As members o the Conerence

o the Parties, the must determine a sae GHG stabilisation

level and the associated emissions reduction pathwas.

UNFCCC compliance thereore reuires nite answers to the uestions: what

is a sae GHG concentration value or the atmosphere? and what is the scale

o the ullterm emissions contraction event reuired to achieve it?. Unless we

accept a globall shared commitment not to eceed that sae concentration

number, the probabilit increases that our separate eorts to avoid dangerous

rates o climate change will remain collectivel too little too late.

ARE WE DOING ENOUGH SOON ENOUGH?The Koto Protocol, based on the IPCC Second Assessment Report o

995, does not target a maimum level o concentrations. It includes

onl si o the worlds twelve largest emitting nations and epires at the

end o 202. An CO2 emissions avoided under Koto have alread been

outweighed b increases in carbon accumulating in the atmosphere at

an accelerating rate, due to changes in the climate sstem as a whole.

The European Union has gone beond its Koto commitment b

targetting 200% emissions reduction b 2020 and a 6080%

reduction b 2050. As with Koto, these unilateral reductions cannot

lead to a sae and stable level o global concentrations.

The UK governments Climate Change Bill [2007/8] targets a unilateral60% emissions reduction below 990 levels b 2050. This is based on the

science o the IPCC Second Assessment Report o 995 and a notional

level o concentrations o 550ppmv CO2. The target is under review.

The US did not rati the Koto Protocol, nor has the ederal government set

an targets or emissions reduction. However, individual states have taken the

initiative. Caliornia has set a unilateral target o 25% reduction in emissions b

2020 and about twent other states, along with a number o Canadian provinces,

have signed agreements to reduce emissions b various amounts. More than 700

US cities have signed an agreement to meet or beat the Koto targets b 202.

Australia, ollowing the election o a new government in

November 2007, has now ratied the Koto Protocol.

These planned actions will make no signicant contribution to solving

the problem without global targets. At best the represent a statement

o intent, but urgent urther action is reuired. Meanwhile, the position

is deteriorating rapidl. Because o weakening carbon sinks, analsis now

indicates that stabilising GHG concentrations in the atmosphere below the

level that prevents dangerous rates o climate change, reuires a rate o

overall emissions control that is aster than was previousl assessed. We are

now advised that we might have onl the net 50 ears to reduce human

GHG emissions to ero globall (IPCC AR4 and Hadle Centre, 2007).

[See GCI IPCC AR4 http://www.gci.org.uk/Animations/BENN_C&C_Animation.ee]

As the original authors o the UNFCCC understood at the outset, embracing

the issue o a sucient and proportionate response to climate change is

undamental to the whole global engagement. We must have a global

agreement on emissions control that is sucient to solve the problem aster

Unless we accept

a globall shared

commitment not

to eceed that sae

concentration number,

the probabilit increases

that our separate eorts

to avoid dangerousrates o climate change

will remain collectivel

too little too late.



than we are creating it. Unless we do, sustainable development is impossible.

The opportunit still eists to create such an agreement or acceptance b the

UN meeting scheduled or Copenhagen at the end o 2009, to replace Koto in

202. It must be based on current climate science and have global support.

TALKS ABOUT TALKS

Toda, over teen ears ater the UNFCCC was agreed, eorts to this end

are demonstrabl inadeuate and the danger o runawa rates o global

climate change taking hold is mounting. We are still ar rom agreeing a sae

level o concentrations, rom which all else stems. Until ver recentl, therewas no agreement in principle to global emissions reduction on an basis.

The G8 summit in Heiligendamm in June 2007 took a promising step

orward. The US and ve growing economies, China, India, Brail,

Meico and South Arica all accepted or the rst time the principle

o an international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

None o these countries is bound b the Koto Protocol.

In September 2007, when mediating between supporters and opponents o

the Koto Protocol, the German Government went urther b proposing the

Contraction & Convergence approach as the basis o the postKoto agreement.

At the Bali conerence (UNFCCC COP) in December 2007, the worldsnations agreed to sign up to a deal setting out a two ear road map to a

new treat to replace the Koto Protocol, due to be agreed in Copenhagen

in December 2009. Developed countries accepted that deep cuts will be

needed in their emissions, while developing countries agreed to undertake

measurable, reportable and veriable mitigation o theirs. Although no rm

targets or commitments are included, it is the rst time that industrialised

and developing countries, including the US, China and India, have jointl

signed up to an undertaking to act together to control their emissions.

At the G8 meeting in Japan in Jul 2008, G8 leaders rearmed commitment

to reaching a global agreement in the UNFCCC process b 2009. The seek

to consider and adopt in the UNFCCC negotiations, the goal o achievingat least 50% reduction o global emissions b 2050, recognising that mid

term goals and national plans are reuired to achieve this. Leaders also

at the summit rom Brail, China, India, Meico and South Arica want the

G8 countries to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions b 80% to

95% below 990 levels b 2050. The also want developed countries to

commit to a mediumterm target o a 25% to 40% cut below 990 levels b

2020. The uestion remains: can these dierences be resolved in time?

CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE -

THE PROPORTIONATE RESPONSE

Contraction & Convergence is GCIs proposed UNFCCCcompliantclimate mitigation strateg or an euitable solution to cutting

carbon emissions through global collective action.

The ultimate objective o the UN climate treat is sae and stable greenhouse

gas concentrations in the atmosphere and C&C starts with this. C&C recognises

that subject to this limit, we all have an eual entitlement to emit greenhouse

gas to the global atmosphere, simpl because continuing its globall uneual

use will make it impossible to get the global agreement needed or success. The

Koto protocol cannot be the basis o this success because it is not sciencebased

and, because o divergent national interests, it does not include all countries.

Scientists have advised on the sae concentration o CO2 in the atmosphere

and on the global cap on emissions necessar to achieve it. A level o 450

parts per million has until recentl been regarded as the upper limit orkeeping under the maimum global temperature increase o 2 degrees

centigrade above the preindustrial average. A sciencebased limit must

be set b international agreement within the UNFCCC process.

C&C BASICS



From inception o a global agreement, C&C schedules the mandator annual global contraction

(reduction o emissions) that keeps CO2 concentrations rom rising beond the agreed sae level.

This rate o contraction must be periodicall adjusted to take account o the increasing release

o greenhouse gases caused b climate warming that accelerates the reduction o sinks and

collapse o the planets ecosstems, such as oldgrowth rain orests and peatlands.

C&C also proposes emission entitlements to ever countr. While starting with current emissions,

it proposes a scheduled convergence to eual per person entitlements or everone on the planet

b an agreed date. This wa, convergence reduces the carbon shares o the developed overemitting

countries sharpl until the converge with the (temporaril rising) shares o developing under

emitting countries. The latter will be able to sell their surplus carbon shares to wealthier nations. With

emissions trading subject to this, rapid investment in renewable energ will be encouraged.

The date b which this eual per person entitlement is achieved is negotiable. However, justice suggests the

sooner the better as the poorer countries, which are most immediatel vulnerable to and least responsible

or creating climate change, need a mechanism that addresses both climate change and povert.

C&C is ounded on IPCC climate science and embraces the UNFCCC principles o sustainabilit, euit

and precaution. It holds the sciencepolic content together as a unit; sciencebased on the contraction

side o the argument and rightsbased or constitutional on the political side o the argument. C&C is

in eect a bill o rights; it plots a ullterm event or achieving eual per capita emissions rights globall

(Convergence), governed b the overall emissions limit over time that stabilises the atmosphere

concentration o GHG at a sae value (Contraction). It is the proportionate response to climate change.

C&C captures the UNFCCC process in a structure o reconciliation. From this it becomes possible to go

beond the merel aspirational character o the current UNFCCC debate, to communicating a rationale

and a constitutional calculus. A uller technical denition o C&C is given on Pages 202.ENABLING GLOBAL COLLECTIVE ACTION

C&C overcomes the stando where a onesided agreement such as Koto is not an agreement that

will ield a complete solution. It recognises that separate development is not sustainable development.

It provides the oundation or uniing developed and developing countries under a common plan to

contract and converge on eual per capita emissions. The will meet in the middle, as developed countries



emissions reduce and developing countries emissions rise, along a

path to a sae and sustainable level o GHG concentrations.

With the integrated C&C approach, we can more clearl dene the challenge

within a nite calculus o collective responsibilit, and sta ocused on

the imperative o solving the problem aster than we are creating it.

EqUITy AND SURVIVAL

It is clear that the global majorit most damaged b climate change are the poor

in developing countries who bear least responsibilit or damaging emissions.C&C addresses this worsening asmmetr o global economic development, or

Epansion and Divergence, at the same time as helping us mitigate climate

change. It creates a sustainable basis on which to resolve this ineuit.

PREVENTING RISING CLIMATE DAMAGES

According to the reinsurers, the weatherrelated damages trend is

growing at twice the rate o the global econom. It is possible that we ma

need to contract emissions to ero globall b 2050 i we are to stabilise

atmosphere GHG concentrations at a level that prevents change accelerating

uncontrollabl. This is projected b the latest climate modelling results

rom the UK Governments Hadle Centre, published in the IPCC Fourth

Assessment. With C&C, we have the opportunit to eercise direct control

over our GHG emissions, and thereb constrain the level to which GHG

concentrations and the conseuential damages will rise in the uture.

A FRAMEWORK-BASED MARKET

The Koto Protocol seeks to interpose a partial and random marketbased

ramework in support o the UN Convention. But such an evolutionar

response to its objective and principles is guesswork b denition. There is

no evidence to support claims that incremental activit at the margins will

collectivel generate a sucient response ast enough to be eective. This

approach has obscured the global objective o sae and stable concentrations

and the urgent need or a trajector to this objective b design.

We must put rational principle beore epedient practice in order that theormer guides the latter. This will make possible the rameworkbased market

that is reuired, with the potential or a eroemissions econom in a structure

o convergence. It corrects and compensates or the asmmetric consumption

patterns o the past, while averting dangerous rates o climate change.

C&C orms the basis or the ambitious international and comprehensive, legall

binding United Nations agreement that corporate leaders are demanding.

Under this agreement, it will be possible or governments to introduce

enabling measures or a lowcarbon econom, with the abilit to manage our

perormance against integral emissions targets. We will then have a clear and

reliable path towards a sae and sustainable level o GHG concentrations.

CORPORATE ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGEPublic awareness o the threat o climate change is increasing rapidl

through media eposure, public meetings and events and the work o

man dedicated campaigning organisations and groups, both local and

national. This enlightenment is set to continue indenitel, reinorced b

behavioural change in energ use, reccling and other practical initiatives.

In 2006, the G8 Roundtable o Business Leaders at the World Economic

Forum issued a memorandum stating: Companies cannot determine the

scale o needed investment without a stabilisation threshold or greenhouse

gas concentrations. The shortterm patchwork o the Koto Protocol is not

costeective. A global longterm, marketbased polic ramework in a newpartnership with China, India, Brail, South Arica and Meico is needed.

More recentl, the Corporate Leaders Group on Climate Change, including

leaders o over 50 global companies, has called or a sucientl

ambitious international and comprehensive, legallbinding United4

It is possible that we

ma need to contract

emissions to ero

globall b 2050 i

we are to stabiliseatmosphere GHG

concentrations at a

level that prevents

change accelerating

uncontrollabl.



Nations agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that will provide

business with the certaint it needs to scale up global investment in

low carbon technologies (Financial Times 0 November 2007).

CURRENT SUSTAINABILITy POLICy AND PRACTICE

Man organisations are committed to rigorous environmental policies

addressing climate change, in response to growing public awareness

and through a sense o public dut. The have also discovered that

there are new opportunities arising rom these good practices.

Some have been ollowing voluntar codes o practice since the

990s, as part o Corporate Social Responsibilit (CSR) and Sustainable

Development programmes. Guidance is available rom government, trade

and proessional bodies. There are more specialised services addressing

carbon ootprint reduction, carbon disclosure and auditing.

The practice o osetting is in common use, although its

contribution to emissions reduction is uncertain. There are as et ew

standards and urther regulation will probabl be reuired.

New methods and techniues are being developed to deal with embedded

carbon. Product lie ccle assessments are being developed on a pilot basis.

These are intended to make it possible to account or carbon through complesuppl chains, including the crossing o national or market boundaries. The could

make an essential contribution in uture to carbon accounting and attribution.

The immense corporate eort being made to reduce emissions is

evidenced b the published records o the Global Reporting Inde

(GRI), the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) and others like them.

These initiatives are bringing new opportunities and improved competitiveness

or those engaged in them, but are the helping to solve the climate problem?

DO THE NUMBERS ADD UP?

There are serious limits on the contribution to global emissions reduction bthese means. We cannot know the impact o our eorts without having an

ultimate global target or GHG concentrations and mutuall agreed emissions

reduction trajectories or achieving this. The Stern Review emphasised

that a target range o concentrations would cruciall anchor a global price

or carbon that will provide markets with the necessar price signal. This

signal would refect our progress against global emissions targets.

These targets must be embodied in an international agreement ramed

to meet the UNFCCC objectives i the markets and new technolog

are to become the mainspring o the new lowcarbon econom.

Under this agreement, governments will be able to legislate or meaningulnational targets that aggregate to common global targets. The will also

be able to introduce appropriate measures, such as taation, regulation

and cap and trade, to help us achieve them. This will provide the level

plaing eld we need or our individual and collective eorts to count.

WHAT MORE CAN BE DONE?

More and more organisations are recognising the need or an

internationall agreed global ramework. Their leaders understand that

we cannot solve the problem without one. The are concerned that their

sustainabilit policies might be compromised and their considerableeorts to reduce emissions could count or nothing in the long run.

Their concern will be the greater or IPCCs warning that the shortall

in current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable

development practices could lead to damaging climate impacts that

Companies cannot determine

the scale o needed investment

without a stabilisation

threshold or greenhouse gasconcentrations. The short

term patchwork o the Koto

Protocol is not costeective,

a global longterm, market

based polic ramework in a

new partnership with China,

India, Brail, South Arica

and Meico is needed



are abrupt or irreversible. However, there are signs o a more proactive

approach being urged b organisations who are leaders in their eld.

Calls b the G8 Roundtable and the Corporate Leaders Group

on Climate Change or a legallbinding United Nations

agreement were a promising start.

The FTSE organisation has announced that rom 2008, eligibilit or inclusion

in the FTSE4Good series o indices will be epanded to include climate change.

FTSE4Good is designed to measure the perormance o companies that

meet globall recognised corporate responsibilit standards. Its constituents

number about seven hundred major enterprises worldwide. FTSE have

recognised that the previous criteria were not set at a level compatible

with the substantial emissions reductions epected to be necessar to

stabilise atmospheric GHG concentrations at a sustainable level. Instead,

the refected what was possible or leading companies within the then

current regulator and business environment. In uture, as international

agreements, governments policies and corporate responses mature, the

criteria will realign with the demands o longterm sustainabilit.

A ke principle o the new criteria is that companies should participate in

strengthening public polic rameworks to address climate risk and reduce

GHG emissions. Further, the are urged to demonstrate public polic leadershipb active advocac o public polic initiatives, including binding national

and international targets, to reduce GHG emissions over the appropriate time

rame in order to achieve an acceptable atmospheric CO2 concentration.

As long ago as 2002, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) declared

that the international political process had been slow to grapple with the

climate change issue, and the business communit could legitimatel seek

to infuence policmakers towards more courageous decisions. The UNEP

Finance Initiative was ormed to work with the nancial sector in addressing

this problem along with other environmental and social considerations.

UNEP FI called or higher priorit to be given to longrange emissions targets

through the adoption o an approach like Contraction & Convergence.

Since then, support or C&C has continued to grow strongl whilst the political

process has hardl moved on. The 2007 Bali agreement is little more than a

statement o intent b policmakers to make some o those courageous

decisions b 2009. The will need all the help and encouragement the can get.

CARBON COUNTDOWN CAMPAIGN

GCI is conducting a global campaign or adoption o Contraction & Convergence

as the UNFCCCcompliant strategic ramework or combating dangerous climate

change. The campaign will displa the C&C logo and will seek commitment on

the part o organisations carring the logo to propagate the case or C&C. Webelieve that corporate leaders have an important part to pla in determining

how the global communit addresses climate change. Moreover, government

will depend on the organisations those leaders represent to contribute greatl to

achievement o the ambitious national and international objectives that ollow.

The campaign is open to a wide range o organisations including:

business, proessional bodies, academic institutions, local

government, health services, NGOs and man others.

OBJECTIVES OF THE CAMPAIGN

The global communit continues to generate dangerous rates o global climate

change aster than it acts to avoid it. The international challenge is to reverse this.

The campaign supports the overall GCI objective o establishing C&C

at the core o government climate change strateg in the UK and

internationall, leading to ormal adoption b the UN and its members.

The specic objectives are to:5



Promote awareness o Contraction & Convergence, etending

and ormalising the constituenc o support

Enlist and support organisations that commit to campaigning

or C&C

Encourage those organisations to adopt the highest standards

o carbon reduction

Support GCIs ongoing research in climate change risk

assessment and mitigation, as part o the UNFCCC process.

THE DECLARATION

Corporate leaders are invited, on behal o their organisations, to

sign the Contraction & Convergence Declaration shown below.

The organisation will agree to:

Support Contraction & Convergence as the ormal basis o

UNFCCC negotiations or a global agreement on climate,

Be entered on an open global C&C register,

Inormall advocate the Declaration to others within a sector

relevant communit,

Suppl eecutive level signature endorsing these conditions

and the Declaration.

The Global Commons Institute will:

Maintain a public register o signator organisations

Publish periodic research and surve materials related to

climate change issues and the campaign

Keep the UNFCCC and other relevant bodies periodicall

updated with progress

Inorm elected political representatives, orming crosspart

consensus on climate change polic, o progress in developing

the C&C constituenc.

Organisations can also choose to displa the C&C logo on house media,

under licence.

The term Contraction & Convergence and the C&C logo are the Trade Mark

o GCI. This is to protect the integrit o the concept and prevent dangerous

compromise that places irrational aspiration above rational principle. The

pressure to compromise in this wa will increase as negotiations proceed.

The Koto Protocol is an eample; it has obscured the global objective o aclearl uantied sae and stable level o concentrations and the need or a

trajector to this b design. What ollows in 202 must be t or this purpose.

GCI is conducting a

global campaign oradoption o Contraction

& Convergence as the

UNFCCCcompliant

strategic ramework or

combating dangerous

climate change.



THE GLOBAL COMMONS INSTITUTE

PARTICIPATION IN THE UNFCCC PROCESS

The Global Commons Institute is a London based notorprot organisation

ounded ater the UNs Second World Climate Conerence in 990. Since then

it has contributed to the work o the United Nations Framework Convention

on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

GCI made signicant contributions to the original development o the UN

Convention which was eventuall agreed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro

in June 992. Its objective was dened as stabilising the rising greenhousegas concentration o the global atmosphere. Its principles o euit and

precaution were established in international law. Climate scientists had

previousl shown that a deep overall contraction o GHG emissions rom

human sources is a prereuisite to achieving the objective o the UNFCCC.

Negotiations to achieve this contraction began in 995, administered

b the speciall created UNFCCC Secretariat. At the reuest o the

IPCC, rom 992 to 995 GCI contributed analsis highlighting the

worsening asmmetr, or Epansion and Divergence, o global economic

development. It became clear that the global majorit most damaged

b climate change were not those who were causing the damaging GHG

emissions. GCI developed the Contraction & Convergence model o utureemissions to provide a sustainable basis or resolving this ineuit.

Negotiations or the Koto Protocol to the UNFCCC ran rom 995 until

997. In December 997 and shortl beore the withdrew rom these

negotiations, the USA representatives stated, C&C contains elements or

the net agreement that we ma ultimatel all seek to engage in.

Since then C&C has been widel reerenced in the debate on achieving

the UNFCCC objectives. However, there has been no signicant

progress on a global agreement or the prevention o dangerous

climate change since Koto was rst penned over ten ears ago.

GCI has continued to gain international support or C&C rom UN

organisations, national governments, business, academic and proessional

institutions as well as man others, as a suitable basis or a ullterm

UNFCCCcompliant agreement (see Section 0, C&C Support).

CLIMATE RISK RESEARCH

6

DECLARATION FOR CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

has the objective o sae and stable greenhouse gas concentrations in

the atmosphere based on the principles o precaution and euit.

Contraction & Convergence (C&C) is the rightsbased, global

climate mitigation ramework, proposed to the United Nations b

the Global Commons Institute (GCI) to achieve that objective.

It enables greenhouse gas scenarios or a sae climate to be calculated and

universall shared b negotiation, enabling policies and measures to be

organised internationall at rates that avoid dangerous global climate change.

Rates o contraction and convergence ma be revised periodicall

as scientic understanding o the relationship between rising

concentrations and their impacts on our world develops.

C&C PROPOSES: -

(a) A ullterm contraction budget or global emissions

consistent with stabilising atmospheric concentrations ogreenhouse gases (GHGs) at a preagreed concentration

maimum deemed to be sae b the UNFCCC

(b) The international sharing o this budget as a predistribution o

entitlements that result rom a negotiable rate o linear convergence

to eual shares per person globall b an agreed date.

These entitlements will be internationall tradable.

We, the undersigned, endorse the above and encourage members o the

international communit to do likewise so that adoption o the Contraction

& Convergence strategic ramework is achieved as soon as possible.

2

4

5

6

7



GCI is committed to ongoing research into climate risk assessment. When the

IPCC published its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) in 2007, it included or the

rst time coupled modelling or emissions control scenarios alongside the

uncoupled modelling that has been shown in its Assessment Reports since 994.

Coupled AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) used

b the UKs Hadle Centre are the most comple climate models in use,

consisting o an Atmosphere General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled to

an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). Some recent models include

the biosphere, carbon ccle and atmospheric chemistr as well. AOGCM

modelling introduces the eects o positive eedbacks rom carbon sinks

and can be used or the prediction and rate o change o uture climate.

Following detailed investigation o the modelling results in IPCC AR4, GCI was

able to conrm with IPCC and Hadle that the new evidence points to the need

or ero emissions globall b about 2050 to keep below 450ppmv atmospheric

CO2 concentration. This level is the most reuentl cited maimum within

which it ma be possible to arrest the rise in global temperature to within a

2C increase above preindustrial levels. These results corroborate the risk

analsis previousl carried out b the GCI or the UK AllPart Parliamentar

Group on Climate Change (APPGCC), shown in summar in Section 8 below.

There is now urther evidence o increasing carbon sink ailure,since publication o IPCC AR4. This is likel to give rise to greater

acceleration in growth o GHG concentration levels.

GCI DIRECTOR

Aubre Meer is the Director o the Global Commons Institute responsible

or ormulation o Contraction & Convergence. His contribution to climate

change mitigation has been recognised with awards including the Andrew

Lees Memorial Award 998, the Schumacher Award in 2000, the Findhorn

Fellowship in 2004, a Cit o London Lietime Achievement award in 2005. In

2007 he was made an Honorar Fellow o the Roal Institute o British Architects

(RIBA) and received the UNEP FI Civil Societ Carbon Leadership Award.

LINKSCarbon Disclosure Project (CDP):

http://www.cdproject.net/

Corporate Leaders Group on Climate Change:

www.cpi.cam.ac.uk/bep/clgcc

European Commission Environment:http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/eccp.htm

FTSE4Good:http://www.tse4good.com/

G8:

http://www.g8.de/Webs/G8/EN/Homepage/home.html

Global Commons Institutehttp://www.gci.org.uk/

Global Reporting Initiative (GRI):

http://www.globalreporting.org/Home

There is now urther

evidence o increasing

carbon sink ailure. This

is likel to give rise togreater acceleration

in growth o GHG

concentration levels.



Hadle Centre:

http://www.metoce.gov.uk/research/hadlecentre/

Hansen, James: Director o the NASA Goddard Institute

or Space Studies and Adjunct Proessor at the Columbia

Universit Earth Institute, Member o the US National

Academ o Sciences:

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/sta/jhansen.html

International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):http://www.ipcc.ch/

Koto Protocol:

http://unccc.int/koto_protocol/items/280.php

State o Caliornia:

http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/

Stern Review:

http://www.sternreview.org.uk

UK Climate Change Bill:http://www.dera.gov.uk/environment/

climatechange/uk/legislation/inde.htm

UNEP Finance Initiative (UNEP FI):

http://www.unep.org/

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC):

http://unccc.int/2860.php

US Environmental Protection Agenc:http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/polic/inde.html

World Economic Forum (WEF):

http://www.weorum.org/en/inde.htm

GCI LINKS

http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/ew.pd

http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/UNFCCC&C_A_Brie_Histor_to998.pd

http://www.gci.org.uk/Endorsements/UNEPFI5.pd

http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/AFRICA_GROUP.pd

COP 997 UNFCCC

Transcript COP C&C agreed in 997http://www.gci.org.uk/temp/COP_Transcript.pd

The C&C Booklet languages rom COP 2/2005:

http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/MONTREAL.pd

Archives covering twent ear histor o this campaign:http://www.gci.org.uk/Archive/Mega_Doc_989_2004.pd

http://www.gci.org.uk/Archive/All_2000_

2007_reduced_le_sie.pd

2004 House o Commons Environmental Audit

Committee and result: http://www.gci.org.uk/correspondence/

EAC_response_GCI_00904.pd

http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/EAC_Final_C&C.pd

C&C brieng to the Ma 2006 allpart enuir into

climateconsensus and result: http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/APGCCC_Evidence_single_A4_

pages.pd

http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/Consensus_Report.pd

The UK House o Commons All Part ParliamentarGroup on Climate Change [APPGCC] have

adopted C&C and a DVD commissioned b the

Group presenting Contraction & Convergence

has been distributed to all UK MPs and Peers:

Eminent spokespersons interviewed on the DVD:http://www.gci.org.uk/images/Contraction_

and_Convergence_Challen_et_al.mpg

Some promotional material:http://www.gci.org.uk/Movies/Contraction_

and_Convergence_Promo.mpg

Ke C&C Animation with coupled models/sinkailure:http://www.gci.org.uk/Animations/BENN_C&C_Animation.ee

CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT

Centrespread overlea charts the UNFCCC Objective &

Principles, the Development Benets o Growth versus

the growth o Climate Change Related Damage Costs.

It is online at: http://www.gci.org.uk/images/Proportionate_Response.pd

Columns one and two address the objective and

principles o the UNFCCC. Columns three and

our compare the development benet o growth

with the growth o climate damage and costs.

The let hand side o each graph shows:

Epanding ossil uel emissions o

CO2 measured in billions o tonnes o

carbon between 800 2000.

Rising concentration o atmospheric

CO2 as parts per million b volume

(ppmv) between 800 2000.

The ke uestions or integration are in our columns:

7



Column : Contraction and Concentration: what is a sae

level o concentrations and, in the light o sink

ailure, how rapid must contraction be to avoid

GHG concentration going too high in uture?

Column 2: Contraction & Convergence: what is the

internationall euitable agreement necessar to

ensure this level is not eceeded?

Column : Damage costs and insecurit: what is the

environmental and economic damages trend

associated with this analsis?

Column 4: Contraction and Conversion: what is the rate at

which we must convert the econom awa rom

ossil uel dependenc?

Each Row has a dierent level o Risk projected across the our columns:

C(bottom row)ACCEPTABLE RISK: global GHG emissions contraction complete b 2050

so concentrations end up around 400/450 ppmv

with damages potentiall still under control.

C2 (middle row)DANGEROUS RISK: global GHG emissions contraction complete b 200

so concentrations keep going up through 550/750

ppmv with the illusion o progress maintained,

while damages are going out o control.

C (top row)IMPOSSIBLE RISK: global GHG emissions contraction complete b

2200 so concentrations keep going up through

550/950 ppmv while the illusion o progress is

being destroed, damages costs are destroing

the benets o growth ver uickl and all eorts

at mitigating emissions become utile.

In each graph, dierent utures are projected on the righthand side as

scenarios or rates o change that are linked to the objective o the UNFCCC

where three levels o risk or stabilising the rising concentration o CO2 are

understood in the light o the rising raction o emissions that stas airborne.

The Global Commons Institute [GCI] was ounded in 990. This was

in response to the mainstreaming o global climate change as a

political issue. Realising the enormit o the climate crisis, we devised

a ounding statement on the principle o Euit and Survival. []In November 990, the United Nations began to create the Framework

on Climate Convention [UNFCCC]. GCI contributed to this and in June

992 the Convention was agreed at the Earth Summit in Rio. Its objective

was dened as stabiliing the rising greenhouse gas [GHG] concentration

o the global atmosphere. Its principles o euit and precaution were

established in international law. Climate scientists had showed that a deep

overall contraction o GHG emissions rom human sources is prereuisite to

achieving the objective o the UNFCCC. In 995 negotiations to achieve this

contraction began administered b the speciall created UNFCCC secretariat.

Between 992 and 995 and at the reuest o the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], GCI contributed analsis highlightingthe worsening asmmetr, or Epansion and Divergence [E&D] o global

economic development. It became clear the global majorit most damaged

b climate changes were alread impoverished b the economic structures

o those who were also now causing the damaging GHG emissions. [2]

8



This entire animation is online at: http://www.gci.org.uk/images/Final_presentation.ee

ACCEPTABLE

DANGEROUS

IMPOSSIBLE

UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

OBJECTIVE

CONTRACTION & CONCENTRATIONS

PRINCIPLES: PRECAUTION & EqUITy




Touch buttons to advance within scenes and logos to advance between scenes

IMPOSSIBLE

ACC

EPTABLE

DANG

EROUS

DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE

DAMAGE COSTS & INSECURITy

UN/SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

CONTRACTION & CONVERSION

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGE-COSTS/DEVELOPMENT-BENEFITS



To create a sustainable basis on which to resolve

this ineuit, GCI also developed the Contraction &

Convergence (C&C) model o uture emissions. In 995

the model was introduced b the Indian Government

[] and it was subseuentl adopted and tabled b

the Arica Group o Nations in August 997. [4]

Negotiations or the Koto Protocol to the UNFCCC ran

rom 995 until 997. In December 997 and shortl

beore the withdrew rom these negotiations, the USA

stated, C&C contains elements or the net agreement

that we ma ultimatel all seek to engage in. [5)

Since then C&C has been widel reerenced in the

debate about achieving the objective o the UNFCCC.

In 2000 C&C was the rst recommendation o the UK

Roal Commission on Environmental Pollution in its

proposals to government. [6] In December 200 C&C was

adopted b the German Governments Advisor Council

on Global Change in its recommendations. [7] In 200

the secretariat o the UNFCCC said the objective o the

UNFCCC, inevitabl reuires Contraction & Convergence.

[8] The Latin America Division o the World Bank in

Washington DC said, C&C leaves a lasting, positive and

visionar impression with us. In 2004 the Archbishop oCanterbur took the position that, C&C thinking appears

utopian onl i we reuse to contemplate the alternatives

honestl. [9] In 2002, the UK Government accepted GCI

authorship o the denition statement o C&C, recognising

the need, to protect the integrit o the argument.

This statement ollows and is available in thirteen

languages. [0] It has been adopted b the House o

Commons Environmental Audit Committee and in part

in the UNs Millennium Assessment. In 2005, the UK

Government hosted the G8 summit. The Government

committed this event to deal strategicall with theproblems o Arica and Climate Change. Numerous civil

societ and aith groups are now activel lobbing the

Government to have C&C adopted as the constitutional

basis or avoiding dangerous uture climate change.

[] http://www.gci.org.uk/signon/OrigStatement2.pd[2] http://www.gci.org.uk/articles/Nairobb.pd

[] http://www.gci.org.uk/Archive/MegaDoc_9.pd[page 6][4] http://www.gci.org.uk/nairobi/AFRICA_GROUP.pd

[5] http://www.gci.org.uk/temp/COP_Transcript.pd

[6] http://www.gci.org.uk/Endorsements/RCEP_Chapter_4.pd

[7] http://www.gci.org.uk/Endorsements/WBGU_Summar.pd

[8] http://www.gci.org.uk/slideshow/C&C_UNFCCC.pd

[9] http://www.gci.org.uk/speeches/Williams.pd[0] http://www.gci.org.uk/translations.html

. Contraction & Convergence (C&C) is the

sciencebased, global climatepolic ramework,

proposed to the United Nations since 990 b

the Global Commons Institute (GCI). [,2,,4]

2. The objective o sae and stable greenhouse gas

concentrations in the atmosphere and the principles

o precaution and euit, as alread agreed in the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC), provide the ormal calculating

basis o the C&C ramework that proposes:

* A ullterm contraction budget or global

emissions consistent with stabilising atmosphericconcentrations o greenhouse gases (GHGs)

at a preagreed concentration maimum

deemed to be sae, ollowing IPCC WG carbon

ccle modelling. (See image above GCI sees

higher than 450 parts per million b volume

[ppmv] CO2 euivalent as notsae).

* The international sharing o this budget as

entitlements results rom a negotiable rate

o linear convergence to eual shares per

person globall b an agreed date within

the timeline o the ullterm contraction/concentration agreement. (GCI suggests [a]

between the ears 2020 and 2050, or around

a third o the wa into a 00 ear budget, or

eample, or convergence to complete (see

Image three below) and [b] that a population

C&C TECHNICAL DEFINITION

9C&C contains

elements or the netagreement that we

ma ultimatel all

seek to engage in.

US delegation to

Koto conerence,

December 995



baseear in the C&C schedule is agreed).

* Negotiations or this at the UNFCCC should

occur principall between regions o the world,

leaving negotiations between countries primaril

within their respective regions, such as the

European Union, the Arican Union, the US, etc.

* The interregional, international and intra

national tradabilit o these entitlements in an

appropriate currenc such as Energ Backed

Currenc Units [5] should be encouraged.

* Scientic understanding o the relationship

between an emissionsree econom and

concentrations develops, so rates o C&C

can evolve under periodic revision [6].

. Presentl, the global communit continues to generate

dangerous climate change aster than it organises

to avoid it. The international diplomatic challenge

is to reverse this. The purpose o C&C is to make this

possible. It enables scenarios or sae climate to be

calculated and shared b negotiation so that policies

and measures can be internationall organised at

rates that avoid dangerous global climate change.

4. GHG emissions have so ar been closel correlated

with economic perormance. To date, this growth

o economies and emissions has been mostl in the

industrialised countries, creating recentl a global

pattern o increasingl uneconomic epansion and

divergence [E&D], environmental imbalance and

international insecurit (See images opposite).



5. The C&C answer to this is ullterm and constitutional,

rather than shortterm and stochastic. It addresses

inertial argument about historic responsibilities or

rising concentrations recognising this as a development

opportunit cost to newl industrialising countries.

C&C enables an international predistribution

o these tradable and thereore valuable uture

entitlements to emit GHGs to result rom a rate o

convergence that is deliberatel accelerated relative

to the global rate o contraction agreed (Image ).

6. The UKs Roal Commission on Environmental Pollution

[7] and the German Advisor Council on Global Change

[8] both make their recommendations to governments

in terms o ormal C&C. Man individual and institutional

statements supporting C&C are now on record. [9,0]

The Arica Group o Nations ormall proposed it to theUNFCCC in 997. [] It was agreed in principle at COP

Koto 997 [2]. C&C meets the reuirements o the Brd

Hagel Resolution o the US Senate o that ear [] the

European Parliament passed a C&C resolution in 998

[] the UK Parliament has reported on C&C [5, 6, 7].

7. This snthesis o C&C can redress the increasingl

dangerous trend imbalances o global climate change.

Built on global rights, resource conservation and

sustainable sstems, a stable C&C sstem is now needed

to guide the econom to a sae and euitable uture or all.

It builds on the gains and promises o the UN Conventionand establishes an approach that is compelling enough

to galvanise urgent international support and action,

with or without the Koto Protocol entering into orce.

[] http://www.gci.org.uk[2] http://www.gci.org.uk/model/dl.html[] http://www.gci.org.uk/images/CC_Demo(pc).ee

[4] http://www.gci.org.uk/images/C&C_Bubbles.pd

[5] http://www.easta.org/events/debtcon/sleepwalking.pd

[6] http://www.gci.org.uk/Animations/BENN_C&C_Animation.ee

[7] http://www.rcep.org.uk/pd/chp4.pd[8] http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn200_engl.pd

[9] http://www.gci.org.uk/Archive/989_2004

[0] http://www.gci.org.uk/consolidation/Sasakawa.pd

[] http://www.gci.org.uk/papers/ew.pd [appendi C, page 6][2] http://www.gci.org.uk/temp/COP_Transcript.pd

[] http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/C&C&BrdHagel.pd[4] http://www.gci.org.uk/consolidation/UNFCC&C_

A_Brie_Histor_to998.pd[pp 27 2]

[5] http://www.gci.org.uk/EAC/Climate_C&C_Report.pd

[6] http://www.gci.org.uk/links/detail.pd

[7] http://www.gci.org.uk/briengs/Consensus_Report.pd

The charts on the page opposite are stacked one above the

other on the same horiontal time ais [800 2200]. This

helps to compare some o what is known about eisting

rates o sstem change with an underling assumption

in avour o a C&C arrangement being put in place.

A new eature shown is the rate o economic damages rom

increasingl unnatural disasters (measured as uninsured

economic losses b Munich Re) now rising at 7% per annum,

twice the rate o global growth. Another is the devastating

and worsening economic asmmetr o Epansion and

Divergence (E&D). This shows a persistent pattern o

increasingl dsunctional economic growth. One third o

population have 94% o global purchasing power and cause

90% o GHG pollution. [We call these debitors]. The other two

thirds, who live on less than 40% o the average global per

capita income, collectivel have 6% o global purchasing power

and a 0% share o GHG pollution. [We call these creditors].

To escape povert, it is creditors who embod the greatest

impulse or uture economic growth and claim on uture

GHG emissions. But this group also has the greatest

vulnerabilit to damages rom climate changes.

Most institutions now acknowledge that atmospheric

GHG stabiliation, inevitabl reuires Contraction &

Convergence. However, some o the response to C&C,

sees it merel as an outcome o continued economic

growth with onl tentative acknowledgement o

the damages and little comprehension o E&D.

While C&C is not primaril about redistribution, it is

about a predistribution o uture tradable and valuablepermits to emit GHGs. Its purpose is to resolve the

devastating economic and ecological imbalance o climate

change. GCIs recommendation to policmakers at the

United Nations is or the adoption o C&C globall or

ecological and economic recover as soon as possible.Year to year percentage change of Gross World Product, GWP

(measured in US$) and Global Carbon emissions



A % per annum eponent in the path integral o growth

is starkl asmmetric and unsustainable. Adhering to

economic prognosis based on this is a measure o an

increasingl dangerous economic growth illusion.

When climate damages are added, it is alread clear that the

growth is uneconomic. When damages are subtracted romthis growth. it is clear the netgrowth is increasingl negative.

Asmmetric and damaging netnegative growth is

recipe or confict. The bottomline is that there is

no sustainable energ source that can realisticall

support this Epansion and Divergence.

Contraction & Convergence can help cope with

the limitstogrowth and structure and stablise the

transition to an euilibrium state based on:

() resource conservation,(2) global rights,

() renewable energ and

(4) ecological recover.



Long beore the end o the UNFCCC negotiation, GCI presented a proposal

on Contraction & Convergence. We all in this room know the model. Level o

contraction and timing o convergence should be negotiated on the basis o the

precautionar principle. Suggestions or emission reductions are well known and

convergence should be achieved at medium term to satis legitimac.

RAUL ESTRADA CHAIRMAN KyOTO PROTOCOL NEGOTIATIONS

Achieving the goal o the climate treat [stabilie GHG concentrations]

inevitabl reuires Contraction & Convergence.

JOKE WALLER HUNTER - UNFCCC ExECUTIVE SECRETARy

Success in the Climate Change negotiations reuires a deal between the quad, the

USA, China, India and the EU. This is possible around the principle o Contraction &

Convergence. The US insistence on India and China accepting targets was not alwas

merel a negotiating tactic. The idea o per capita euit in the Contraction & Convergence

analsis o the Global Commons Institute was seriousl discussed in all our capitals in

the midnineties and the BrdHagel Resolution o the US Senate beore Koto and the

94 0 vote was a statement that such a deal with India and China meant progress.TOM SPENCER - FORMER PRESIDENT GLOBE INTERNATIONAL

Euit guides the route to global ecological recover. Tradable Emissions quotas will makematters worse unless set as targets and timetables or euitable emissions reductions overall. This

means convergence at sustainable parit values or consumption on a per capita basis globall.

INDIAN GOVERNMENT - COP 995

When we ask the opinions o people rom all circles, man people, in particularthe scientists, think the emissions control standard should be ormulated on

a per capita basis. According to the UN Charter, everbod is born eual, and

has inalienable rights to enjo modern technological civiliation.

CHINA STATE COUNSELLOR DR SONG JIAN - COP 997

We support India and propose Contraction & Convergence o global emissions.you cannot talk about trading i there are not entitlements; Contraction &

Convergence comes into pla when we talk about issues o euit

THE AFRICA GROUP KyOTO - COP 997

It does seem to us that the proposals b India and others who speak to

Contraction & Convergence are elements or the uture, elements perhaps

or a net agreement we ma ultimatel all seek to engage in.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA - COP 997

A set o common principles must be based on a worldwide binding limit on global emissionsconsistent with a maimum atmospheric concentration [contraction] with progressive

convergence towards an euitable distribution o emissions rights on a per capita basis

b an agreed date with acrosstheboard reductions in emissions rights thereater.EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT RESOLUTION 998

Per capita CO2 emissions meet in the middle. In the nal analsis the per capita emissions

in emerging economies will meet those o industrialised countries. I cannot imagine theemerging economies will one da be permitted to emit more CO2 per capita than we in

the industrialised countries. With this proposal, emerging nations with rapidl epanding

economies could be on board the global climate negotiations scheduled or 2009.

ANGELA MERKEL - PRESIDENT OF GERMANy 2008

The international climate regime should be based on legitimate principles o euit,

such as longterm convergence o emission levels per capita in the various countries.

NICHOLAS SARKOzy - PRESIDENT OF FRANCE 2008

Attempts to den C&Cs pure logic ecological, political, social and human are ultimatel

utile. Nature wont be ooled. Acceptance o C&C brings not imprisonment, but new

unound reedom; Justice without Retribution, as Nelson Mandela once demanded.

DAVE HAMPTON - CARBON COACH

C&C SUPPORT

0



Sweden strives or global emissions converging to eual per capita or all.

KJELL LARSSON - ENVIRONMENT MINISTER 2000

Emissions should converge towards eual emissions per inhabitant.

RD NATIONAL CLIMATE COMMUNICATION 200

Contraction & Convergence secures a regime where all nations join eortsto protect our global commons without the risk that an countr is deprived

o its air share o the common environmental emission space.

SVEND AUKEN - DANISH ENVIRONMENT MINISTER 999

We are conscious that in the end, we will have inevitabl to evolve towards a more euitable

partition between the North and the South o the capacit o our common atmosphere to support

greenhouse gases b a gradual convergence o levels o emissions on a per capita basis.OLIVIER DELOUzE - BELGIAN ENVIRONMENT MINISTER 2000

I we agree to per capita allowances or all b 200 [so that global emissions sta below 450

ppm 2o global temperature rise] then assigned amounts or Anne One countries would bedrasticall reduced. However, because all countries would have assigned amounts, maimum

use o global emissions trading would strongl reduce the cost o compliance. In such a

scenario Industrial Countries would have to do more, but it would be cheaper and easier.

JAN PRONK COP6 2000 - DUTCH ENVIRONMENT MINISTER

We do not believe that the ethos o democrac can support an norm other

than eual per capita rights to global environmental resources.

PRIME MINISTER INDIA - COP 8 2002

To orestall urther damage deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions than as presentl contained

in the Koto Protocol are urgentl reuired and these must be organised as universal eual

entitlements as engraved in the principles o the Contraction & Convergence Framework.

KENyA GOVERNMENT - COP 2005

Conerence recognises the urgent need or action to mitigate climate change

given the potentiall disastrous conseuences or the planet.

We pledge to achieve a low carbon emitting societ and commit the SNP to supporting theadoption o the internationallrecognised principle o Contraction & Convergence.

ALEx SALMOND - LEADER SCOTTISH NATIONAL PARTy

Liberal Democrats argue or the principle o contraction and convergence

with the longterm goal o eualising per capita emissions globall.

CHRIS HUHNE - LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

I urge the UK Government to provide leadership on climate change b committing itsel to

Contraction & Convergence as the ramework within which uture international agreements

to tackle climate change are negotiated. I conrm that the part also supports this pledge.SIMON THOMAS - POLICy DIRECTOR PLAID CyMRU

The Koto Protocol sas nothing about the uture beond 202.

To address that timescale the Green Part advocates the adoption b the UNFCCC oa ramework o Contraction & Convergence (C&C) as the ke ingredient in the global

political solution to the problem o Climate Change mitigation, and urges the UK and

other governments use it as the basis or negotiations in the international ora.GREEN PARTy REAL PROGRESS - CLIMATE POLICy STATEMENT



To make provision or the adoption o a polic o combating

climate change in accordance with the principles o . . .

Contraction & Convergence and or connected purposes.

COLIN CHALLEN - CHAIR ALL-PARTy GROUP CLIMATE CHANGE

An ramework which involves radical emission reductions would in practice resemble

the Contraction & Convergence approach advocated b the Global Commons Institute.

Indeed, in terms o domestic polic aims, the UK Government has alread implicitl

accepted this approach in adopting the 60% carbon reduction target or 2050; and it isthereore inconsistent not to adopt such an approach internationall. We do not see an

credible alternative and none was suggested in evidence to our inuir. We thereore

recommend that the UK Government should ormall adopt and promote Contraction &

Convergence as the basis or uture international agreements to reduce emissions.

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDIT COMMITTEE HOUSE OF COMMONS

The Government should press or a uture global climate agreement based on the Global

Commons Institutes Contraction & Convergence approach as the international ramework

within which uture international agreements to tackle climate change are negotiated.These

oer the best longterm prospect o securing euit, econom and international consensus.ROyAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

Contraction & Convergence helps greatl. It is inclusive and makes clear what needs to

be achieved. Without such a shared model, there will not be the necessar relationships

that create the new and eciting possibilities and the trust or shared action.CHRIS MOTTERSHEAD - DISTINGUISHED ADVISOR ENERGy & ENVIRONMENT BRITISH PETROLEUM

PLC

Almost an conceivable longterm solution to the climate problem will embod a high degree

o contraction and convergence. Atmospheric concentrations o GHGs cannot stabilie unless

total emissions contract; and emissions cannot contract unless per capita emissions converge.

JOHN ASHTON - UK CLIMATE AMBASSADOR PEW REPORT

The solution to climate change reuires a globall euitable model o emissions reductions.The Contraction & Convergence model calls or alread large polluting countries to cut their

emissions, while newl industrialising countries increase theirs, up to the point that we converge

at a sustainable level. That, I hope, will be the ethos that will guide cities around the world.

KEN LIVINGSTONE - MAyOR OF LONDON

I admire GCIs Contraction & Convergence model and their now nearl twent ear

crusade b to get it established as the international basis o polic to meet the objective

o the UN Climate Treat. Their presentation o it is a dauntingl hard act to ollow.

NICK BUTLER - DIRECTOR CAMBRIDGE ENERGy STUDIES

I support the concept o Contraction & Convergence as does the Environment Agenc

SIR JOHN HARMAN - CHAIRMAN UK ENVIRONMENT AGENCy

. . . there is an emerging proposal here that is important and helpul a broad longterm

commitment to eual per capita emissions. Its a tough proposal. I we take it as part o

the progressive agenda to move to that it will be helpul in bringing the world togetheras it brings the developing countries as part o this eort with an ethical and political

commitment, not immediate, but towards convergence in terms o per capita emissions.KEMAL DERVIS - CHIEF ADMINISTRATOR UNDP



Business and government cannot solve the problem alone.

Solutions must be global and participation o all major emitters is essential. Companies

cannot determine the scale o needed investment without a stabiliation threshold

or greenhouse gas concentrations. The shortterm patchwork o the Koto Protocolis not costeective. A global long term, marketbased polic ramework in a new

partnership with China, India, Brail, South Arica and Meico is needed. Emissions

rights with common metrics that can be adjusted over time to refect evolving

developments will ensure that a trul global solution to the problem is achieved.

G8 CLIMATE CHANGE 2005 BUSINESS LEADERS

A ormulation that takes the rightsbased approach to its logical

conclusion is that o Contraction & Convergence [GCI]

IPCC WG THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT

The global ramework develops so that CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is heldat or below 400 ppmv. This longterm climate objective is met b ensuring that short

term targets are linked to and consistent with it, with a gradual transition towards a

sstem o eual per capita rights to use the absorptive capacit o the atmosphere.

STEPHEN ByERS - MP INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE TASK FORCE

The Bers report reers to a new basis o euit and common, but dierentiated,responsibilities. We need environmental euit with a cap and trade

programme. Contraction & Convergence is the name that we must give

to it. We must link that battle with the battle against povert.

UK ALL-PARTy PARLIAMENTARy GROUP CLIMATE CHANGE

Policmakers need consensus on a global ramework or climate stabilit based

on principles o precaution and euit such as Contraction & Convergence.

UNEP FINANCIAL INITIATIVE

There is no other method o rationall and ethicall guiding global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

ROyAL INSTITUTE OF BRITISH ARCHITECTS 2006

The UIA commits itsel to campaigning or the most eective outcome

possible at COP5 through advocac o an emission limitation agreementbased on the principle o contraction and convergence.

INTERNATIONAL UNION ARCHITECTS TURIN CONFERENCE 2008

There is a desperate need to create an eective polic or preserving health

ecosstems b providing incentives and the resources to do so. The Contraction

& Convergence approach promoted b UN is a well thought through andpotentiall powerul approach which also addresses air distribution.

PETER HEAD - DIRECTOR ARUP

The per capita approach is generall reerred to as contraction

and convergence (Global Commons Institute 2000) and has gured in

the international debate or some time. It has been promoted b India

and has been discussed avourabl in German and the United Kingdom (German Advisor

Council on Global Change 200; UK Roal Commission on Environmental Pollution 2000).Recent reports have shown increasing support or this approach internationall: see, or

eample, Stern (2008) and the Commission on Growth and Development (2008).

ROSS GARNAUT - AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT ECONOMIST

An international agreement is essential. It must be based on the criteria o

eectiveness, ecienc and euit. Eectiveness demands a longterm global goalcapping global emissions and providing a longterm trajector or investment in

low carbon technologies. This should be at least a halving o global emissions b

2050. A pragmatic principle o euit would reuire an eualisation o per capitaemissions b then. This will reuire developed countries to cut b around 80%.

NICHOLAS STERN - UK GOVERNMENT ECONOMIST



Contraction & Convergence The logic is compelling.

It is a ormula or uture global emissions that could, without eaggeration,

save the world. Some environment groups such as Greenpeace see

the ormula as a deadend. The are prooundl wrong.Vote or New Statesman best climate ramework

Results Januar 2008 . . .

2% are saing Koto Protocol8% are saing Contraction & Convergence

2% are saing Koto2

5% are saing Greenhouse Development Rights

A ramework involving technolog together with social, political and economic

change with uantiable targets is the onl wa orward. This is wh we

support the wellknown concept o Contraction & Convergence (C&C) as

proposed b the Global Commons Institute as the basis or the agreement. It

satises developing countries demands or euit and US demands that majordeveloping countries such as China and India be involved in an targets.

SCIENTISTS FOR GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITy

The WBGU recommends emissions rights be allocated according

to the Contraction & Convergence approach.

GERMAN ADVISORy COUNCIL

I note what ou sa about Aubre Meers Contraction & Convergenceproposal and I agree that in the ght against climate change C&C makes an

important contribution to the debate on how we achieve longterm climate

stabilit taking account o the principles o euit and sustainabilit.

TONy BLAIR - UK PRIME MINISTER

The Churches can give their backing to Contraction & Convergence

publicl and unanimousl because at its core, it is just. It appears Utopianonl i we reuse to contemplate the alternatives honestl.

DR ROWAN WILLIAMS - ARCHBISHOP OF CANTERBURy

Climate change is likel to impose massive economic costs. The case or beingprepared to spend huge resources to limit it is clear as the cost will be repaid man

times over b the avoidance o disaster. The developed world does not have the

moral right to increase the risk o fooding in Bangladesh. Long term the onl sound

strateg is that o contraction and convergence cutting greenhouse emissions to

the point where the are shared euall, worldwide, on a per capita basis.

LORD ADAIR TURNER - CHAIRMAN OF CLIMATE COMMITTEE

We believe contraction and convergence is the best wa orward because it recognisesthat growth in energ use in developing countries will happen.Even i we could achieve a

reverse in trends o energ use in developed countries, there is not et anwhere enough

alternative and renewable energ available to get us o o ossil uels ast enough. For the

developing world the situation is even more urgent because that is where

most energ intensive industrial and manuacting activit is heading.TIM SMIT - CEO THE EDEN PROJECT

An approach receiving signicant attention is Contraction & Convergence, the science

based global climatepolic ramework proposed b the Global Commons Institute withthe objective o realiing sae and stable greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

It applies principles o precaution and euit, principles identied as important in the

UNFCCC but not dened, to provide the ormal calculating basis o the C&C ramework.

BOB WATSON - FORMER CHAIRMAN IPCCC



Contraction & Convergence and its mechanism or nancing sustainable development

is the onl proposal so ar which is global, euitable and growthoriented.

CONGRESSMAN JOHN PORTER CHAIR, GLOBE USA

The idea o Contraction & Convergence is destined to be one o the mostimportant principles governing international relations in the 2st centur.

It is a powerul ethic that incorporates global justice and sustainabilit and

thereb bridges the dominant concerns o the last centur and this one.

It is the onl wa to accommodate the interests, ethical and economic, o

developing countries and rich countries in the struggle to nd a solutionto the most important environmental problem acing the world.

DR CLIVE HAMILTON - THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE

The approach o contraction and convergence presents a new economic

development paradigm or the twent rst centur and beond.

MRS. RUNGANO KARIMANzIRA - CHAIR, AFRICA GROUP

The most realistic wa to bring about the reuired reduction in ghg emissionswhich will have the combined eect o reducing the damage imposed on

the insurance industr and encouraging the transition to renewable energ)

is that proposed in the concept o Contraction & Convergence.

UK CHARTERED INSURANCE INSTITUTE

An political solution to climate change will need to be based on reductions in

emissions, otherwise known as contraction. As the climate is owned b no one and

needed b everone, we will also have to move towards euall sharing the atmosphere,

known as convergence. Collective survival depends on addressing both.WORLD DISASTERS REPORT 2000 INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS/CRESCENT

The vision o Contraction & Convergence combines ecolog and euit most elegantl.

HEINRICH BOELL FOUNDATION

The assiduous campaigning over the last decade b the Global Commons Institute based on its idea o contract and converge under which the rich nations undertake

to reduce emissions even as developing nations are permitted to grow their emissions

until such time as per capita emissions converge at the same level, has given this kind

o approach some real credibilit. So, too, has the readiness o developing countries

such as China, Brail, Indonesia and Argentina to accept emissions targets or their own

counties not least because the are alread beginning to eel the impacts o climatechange. The real strength o this approach is that it is based upon a trading sstem, with

rich nations needing to purchase additional carbon credits rom poorer nations.

JONATHON PORRITT - FORUM FOR THE FUTURE

There are a number o measures (o varing scale) that can be used

to reduce the amount o CO2 that is being emitted, these include: Contraction & Convergence

conceived b the Global Commons Institute (GCI) in the earl 990s consists o reducing overallemissions o GHGs to a sae level, Contraction, where the global emissions are reduced becauseever countr brings emissions per capita to a level which is eual or all countries, Convergence.

BMA 2008 - HOW CAN THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE BE REDUCED?

CHC advocates a global ramework or action with contraction and convergence

a avoured option, and seek the means to infuence ke decision makers.

CLIMATE AND HEALTH COUNCIL



Admiration is reuentl epressed, regarding the elegance and simple logic o

Contraction & Convergence and it has been widel supported b polic makers

as a basis that should underlie the net stage o polic ormulation.

SIR JOHN HOUGHTON - FORMER CHAIR IPCC WORKING GROUP ONE

Man governments around the world have accepted the concept oContraction & Convergence as the onl euitable response

mechanism to the threat o climate change.

GRACE AKUMU - DIRECTOR, CLIMATE NETWORK AFRICA

In the end, the will need to give much weight to eual per capita rights o emissions. Thewill need to allow long periods or adjustment towards such positionswithin the over

riding reuirement to sta within an environmentall responsible global emissions budget.

One possible wa o bringing these two elements together would be the contraction

and convergence approach that has been discussed avourabl in German and India.

ROSS GARNAULT - CLIMATE STRATEGIST AUSTRALIAN GOVERMENT

I not onl support the C&C concept, I nd it inconceivable that we will

avert climate catastrophe without a regime built on some variation o thisapproach. In the debate about climate change, an impression has been

created that the problem is too daunting and comple to prevent. Contraction

& Convergence provides a wa orward that is both air and easible.

JOHN RITCH - WORLD NUCLEAR ASSOCIATION

It is absolutel remarkable that the idea o Contraction & Convergence

has taken such a rm hold worldwide in such a short space o time.

TESSA TENNANT - CHAIR ASSOCIATION FOR SUSTAINABLE

& RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT IN ASIA

Contraction & Convergence is an etermel powerul idea

and we are moving remorselessl towards it.

MICHAEL MEACHER - FORMER UK ENVIRONMENT MINISTER

. . . an approach receiving signicant attention is Contraction & Convergence [C&C] a sciencebased global ramework whereb total global emissions are reduced

(contraction) to meet a specic agreed target, and the per capita emissions o

industrialied and the developing countries converge over a suitabl long time period,

with the rate and magnitude o contraction and convergence being determined

through the UNFCCC negotiating process. It applies principles o precaution andeuit; principles identied as important in the UNFCCC but not dened.

WORLD BANK ON CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE

A brilliant, imaginative and simple means o reaching a just global agreement on emissionreductions is called Contraction & Convergence (C&C). It was rst proposed b the Global

Commons Institute (GCI) in 990. Recognition o its uniue ualities as a ramework

or combating climate change has grown at an astonishing rate since that date.

MAyER HILLMAN - AUTHOR OF HOW WE CAN SAVE THE PLANET

In the light o the longterm perspective two basic reuirements must be met:

Stabilisation o greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level in accordance with

the overall objective o the Climate Change Convention. A air distribution o

rights and obligations, b establishing the concept o percapita emission rightsor all countries, as proposed in the Contraction & Convergence scheme.

DAVID HALLMAN - WORLD COUNCIL OF CHURCHES



The Scientic Case or Setting a LongTerm Emission Reduction Target. The ramework

o this stud builds on the RCEP work which uses a contraction and convergence

methodolog. Contraction & Convergence is an international polic ramework or dealing

with global climate change developed b the Londonbased Global Commons Institute.

DEFRA ON C&C

UK building industr leaders wrote to Mr Blair saing this rameworkbased market is

contraction and convergence. We highlight the point made b the Corporate Leaders

Group on Climate Change that getting the right glob

Date post:	07-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	aubrey-meyer
View:	235 times
Download:	0 times

Carbon Countdown

Documents