Carbon cycle assessment

Patricia Cadule

Jean-Louis Dufresne

Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris.

CCI-CMUG, 27 May 2015

Regional CO2 fluxes

[IPCC AR5]

Inversions[Peylin et al]

Veget.models

CMIP5 Models vs Inversions

(PgC

/yr)

Month

(PgC

/yr)

Month

(PgC

/yr)

Month

(PgC

/yr)

Month

(PgC

/yr)

Month

Regional CO2 fluxes

Grey shading: inversionsColor lines: CMIP5 models

Evaluations of the atmospheric CO2 concentration of the 23 CMIP5 models

Alert (Canada)

ALT

BRW

MHD

SCH

NWR

AZR

KUM

MLO

SMO

AMS

CGO

SPO

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Comparing models with • carbon flux estimates (inversions)• CO2 concentration in a few locations (transport of surface CO2 flux)

Over 11 CO2 stations

Regional CO2 fluxes

Fires produce• Greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4,

N2O, …) that impact the radiation budget

• CO, non-methane hydrocarbons, and NOx altering the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere

• Aerosols (OC, BC) having an impact on the radiation budget

Ward et al., 2012

Project- Added value of CCI variables- Consistencies amongst variables- Focus on fires

Fires and vegetation models

Energy & Hydrology model (SEHIBA)

Climate Variable

Carbon model (STOMATE)

Dynamic Vegetation

SPITFIRE Fire model (climate driven)

ORCHIDEE

CarbonBalance

ClimateModel

Ignition

Climate:Daily Tmax, TminDaily PrecipitationDaily wind speed

External drivers

ORCHIDEE Input and PFT Parameters

(fuel availability)Biomass & Litter

Soil moisture

PFT parameters (fuel bulk density, moisture of extinction, tree architecture, etc.)

SPITFIRENumber of Fire

Fire Danger Index

Fire spread rate

Fire duration

Fuel Consumption Fraction

Surface fire intensity

Emissions

Plant mortality

Burned Area

ORCHIDEE-SPITFIRE modeling framework, coupled with the LMDZ climate model

SPITFIRE (Thonicke et al., 2010)

Project- Added value of CCI variables- Consistencies amongst variables- Focus on fires

Emission(carbon and other gases)

BA(Burned Area)

CF(Combustion

Fraction)

EF(Emission

Factor)

ESA fire_cci

Fuel(biomass,litter etc.)

DGVM

Atmospheric model

Vegetation model

Transport and Inversion models

Observation

Bottom-up approach of emissions estimation (aided by vegetation models)

Consistency fires vs precipitation

Low precipitation: limited by fuel (vegetation) amount

High precipitations: limited by the degree of drought

Mean annual precipitation (mm/yr) (1997-2009)

Mea

n bu

rn a

rea

2006

2007

2008

Annual burned areaESACCI ≈ 2x GFED4, despite many tiles still missing in ESACCI

ESACCI GFED4 ESACCI/GFED

Burned area: ESA fire_cci vs. GFED4

Experiments: Land cover dataLC_CCI

Current land cover map•Outdated land cover inputs

• IGBP land cover (Belward et al. 1999) and,

• Olson vegetation map with 96 classes (1983)

Land coverKöppen-Geigerclimate zones

Phenology & Physiognomy

Plant Functional TypesLa

nd

Co

ver

->

PF

T

Co

nv

ers

ion

To

ol

(BE

AM

)

ESA LC_CCI PFT datasets

• Increase in BoNE

• Increase in Bare Soil• Decrease in BoNS

increase decrease

• Decrease in tundra C3 grass cover

• Increase in BoBS at expense of BoNE

PFT differences – high latitudes

(LC_CCI – Olson)

PFT differences – tropics (LC_CCI – Olson)

GV2M Avignon - February 2014

Increase in C4 crops

Decrease in TrRG

Decrease in TrEV

Carbon budget evaluation

Mauna Loa (Pacific)

Carbon budget evaluation

Barrow (Alaska)

Complementary studies towards assessment of carbon cycle and fires in coupled climate model:

• Identify (in)consistencies amongst related datasets

• Determine the origins of added values of CCI

• Improve knowledge and understanding processes

Study 1Dataset analysis

• Using the following datasets: SST, SI, LC, GHG, FIRE, SM, ALB

• Look for fires (region, spread/extent, duration)• Identify corresponding pre-fire conditions (availability of

fuel, climate conditions, ignition source, …)• Identify corresponding post-fire conditions (climate

conditions, emissions, albedo, land cover)• Objectives

– Propose to the extent possible improvement margins for future datasets (e.g., spatial and temporal resolutions) in case of inconsistencies between fires and pre/post conditions

– Categorize fires for use in Study 2

Thank you for your attention

increase decrease

• Decrease in C3 croplands replaced by C3 grasslands

• Increases in C4 grasslands due to use of Koppen-Geiger climate zones

C3

C4

PFT differences (1) – crops (LC_CCI – Olson)

1 - Bare soil2 – TrBE : tropical broad-leaved evergreen3 – TrBR : tropical broad-leaved raingreen4 – TeNE : temperate needleleaf evergreen5 – TeBE : temperate broad-leaved evergreen6 – TeBS : temperate broad-leaved summergreen7 – BoNE : boreal needleleaf evergreen8 – BoBS : boreal broad-leaved summergreen9 – BoNS : boreal needleleaf summergreen10 – NC3 : C3 grass11 – NC4 : C4 grass12 – AC3 : C3 agriculture13 – AC4 : C4 agriculture