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Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

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Anthony Hobley Chief Executive Officer Helsinki, 20th May 2014
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Page 1: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Anthony HobleyChief Executive Officer

Helsinki, 20th May 2014

Page 2: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Financial experts making carbon investment risk visible today in the capital market.

Anthony Hobley - Chief Executive OfficerMark Campanale - Founder and Executive DirectorJon Grayson - Chief Operating OfficerJames Leaton - Research DirectorLuke Sussams - Senior ResearcherReid Capalino - Senior ResearcherJohn Wunderlin - Staff Attorney USMargherita Gagliardi - Communications OfficerTracy Trainor - Office Manager

Jeremy Leggett - Chair, Board of DirectorsMark Campanale - Deputy ChairmanAnthony Hobley - Executive DirectorAlice Chapple - Non Executive DirectorCary Krosinsky - Non Executive Director

Who we are

Page 3: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Our funders

Page 4: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Our formula

...by translating climate science and policy into the language of finance.

Our work is aimed to align climate riskwith capital market risk...

Page 5: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

What we do

Our research has created a new debate around climate change and investment.

Page 6: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Our stakeholders

Page 7: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Our research path

Page 8: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

We are not about divestment

…an easy and powerful bit of arithmetical analysis first published by financial analysts in the U.K. has been making the rounds… (it) up-ends most of the conventional political thinking about climate change. And it allows us to understand our precarious position with…. simple numbers”.

Bill McKibben, Co-founder of 350.org

Page 9: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

We are about responsible risk management

This report shows very clearlythe gross inconsistency between current valuations of fossil fuel assets and the path governments have committed to take in order to manage the huge risks of climate change.

Prof. Lord Stern of BrentfordChair, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, LSE

Page 10: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014
Page 11: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014
Page 12: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Carbon budget deficit for listed companies

Current listed reserves (762 GtCO2)far exceed a quarter ofthe carbon budgetsbut could double (1541 GtCO2)

If we break the 2°C budget we very quickly hit 2.5°C and 3°C

Page 13: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Current reserves on stock exchanges (2013)

Page 14: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Potential reserves on stock exchanges (2013)

Page 15: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Rebalancing is needed between flows.

Page 16: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Carbon Supply Cost Curves. First Report on Oil (2014)

Page 17: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Carbon supply and oil production by global producer category (2014-2050)

Page 18: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Stress-testing the logic of rising upstream oil capital expenditure

Page 19: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Carbon Supply Cost Curves: Oil

Page 20: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Carbon and oil production by producer by BEOP: 2014-2050

Page 21: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Private conventional: Total carbon & oil production (MBPD average) by BEOP 2014-

2050

Page 22: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Private unconventional: Total carbon & oil production (MBPD average) by BEOP 2014-

2050

Page 23: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Conventional: CAPEX $ by BEOP (2014 to 2050)

Page 24: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Unconventional: CAPEX $ by BEOP (2014 to 2050)

Page 25: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Key locations by CAPEX (2014 to 2025) and carbon production (2014 to 2050)

Page 26: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Map of oil provinces with high cost potential production

Page 27: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Mark Fulton, ex DB Head of Research, presents the key findings

Page 28: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Recommendations for Investors

Page 29: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014
Page 30: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014
Page 31: Carbon Tracker Presentation: Anthony Hobley at SITRA, Helsinki, 21 May 2014

Anthony HobleyChief Executive Officer

[email protected]


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