Date post: | 14-Mar-2016 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | quintessa-urban |
View: | 40 times |
Download: | 9 times |
Carbon Trust’s Offshore Wind AcceleratorDriving down the cost of offshore wind
Phil de VilliersOffshore Wind Accelerator Manager
2
Our mission is to accelerate the move to a low carbon economy
We cut carbon now byProviding specialist advice and finance to help organisations cut carbonSetting standards for carbon reduction
We cut future carbon emissions byOpening markets for low carbon technologies Leading industry collaborations to commercialise technologiesInvesting in early stage low carbon companies
3
Focus of assessment– What is required to deliver
offshore wind in the UK?
– What does UK Government and industry need to do?
In 2008 Carbon Trust assessed barriers to offshore windOffshore wind power: Big challenge, big opportunity
Note: Report is available on our website: www.carbontrust.co.uk
…
UK faces an energy gap and tough renewable energy targetThis requires mass deployment of offshore wind
Installed capacity, projected demand (GW), 2008-2020
% of UK energy from renewables, 2005-2020
Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2008 (based on DECC Energy Model)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
201520102008
Coal
Gas
NuclearRenewables
Projectedpeak demand
2020
Energy gap
15%
2%1%
2020 target
2005 2010
8x increase required
5
Current expectation
Optimal site availability
Cost reductions
Achievable goal
Weak commercial returns, high levels
of public subsidy
Stronger commercial returns, lower levels
of public subsidy
Source: Carbon Trust “Offshore wind power: big challenge, big opportunity”, 2008
Increased RD&D critical for delivering cost reduction
£45bn
£14bn
£16bn£75bn
Requires major RD&D
programme, of which OWA is
one component
6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Gunfleet Sands
Robin Rigg
Lynn
Burbo
Barrow
Kentish Flats
Scroby Sands
North Hoyle
Cost per MW installed (€m/MW)
Year
Rhyl Flats
Costs must be reducedOtherwise projects cancelled, UK renewable targets missed
Source: Emerging Energy Research, 2009
Drivers• Rising commodity prices• Bottlenecks in supply chain• Complexity of sites, distance, depth• FX rate volatility
7Offshore Wind Accelerator
Offshore Wind AcceleratorObjective: Reduce cost of energy by 10% through RD&D
8 developers + Carbon Trust
Focusing on technologies for– Round 2 extensions– Round 3– Scottish Territorial Waters
Total budget ~£40m– £10m for collaborative R&D– Up to £30m for demonstrations– Carbon Trust funds 1/3
Commitment to 2014– Started October 2008
8
OWA objectivesRequires very targeted RD&D
Focus on commercial outcomes– Reduce cost of energy by 10%– Deliver innovations in time for Round 3 (~2015)
Learn from the capabilities and experiences of each member– Offshore wind, oil and gas, onshore wind
Encourage the best designers to deliver innovations– Engage them on very specific challenges– Let them keep their IP– Look internationally, not just to UK– Engage with other industries for technology transfer
Operate responsively to member needs; manage costs effectively
9
• Research-focused
• May not meet customer needs
• Customer-focused
• Innovators focus on main challenges
OWA is an example of market-pull innovation
Two approaches to innovationUK offshore wind R&D
customer-driven
Offshore Wind Accelerator
Innovators Market
Technology push
Marketpull
Source: Carbon Trust 2011
10
RWESSECentricaSPRVattenfallDONGStatkraftStatoilMainstreamSiemensFluorE.ONSeaEnergyEDPEnecoWarwickFred OlsenMasdarEDFAREG
Round 1 Round 2 STW & Demo Round 3 Total marketDeveloper
60% of UK market is in OWA: big pull for innovatorsOWA developers have 30GW of licensed capacity in UK waters
OWA Stage II partners
58
90200415650900975
4%2,000 4%2,360 5%2,4082,408 5%2,884 6%
4,396 9%5,350 11%5,809 12%6,015 12%6,555 14%
0%0%1%1%
5%
2%1,238 3%
1,809 4%1,985
2%900975
325
0
4,185 13%3,983 12%3,750 12%
3%3%
1%
1,733 5%2,000 6%2,000 6%2,250 7%2,250 7%
0%3,600 11%3,600 11%
58
415
913300
0
3600
58
453
6%0%
1%
8%
1,500 26%
16%5%
0%
26%1,518
1%
7%
158
200
600252
0
158
498250
504
2%
7%3%
0%2%2%
2,406 26%
5%3%1,430 16%
5%2,202 24%
90
90
2440
240
19410150
20%
7%
7%
0%
20%
16%1%
12%
Source: RenewableUK (Jan 2010), The Crown Estate (May 2010)
11
Yield
Cost of finance
Focus is on areas developers most able to influence
BoP
TurbineO&M
I&C
Aiming to reduce impact of distance and depth on cost
Note: Cost analysis for <700 W/m2 wind power, where 100% = £97/MWh (2008 assumptions)Source: Carbon Trust “Big Challenge, Big Opportunity” 2008
Wind speed Distance Depth
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Depth (m)0-20 20-40 40-60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Distance to shore (nm)60+12-30 30-600-12
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
800-900
Wind power (W/m2)
700-800
<700 900+
CoE as % typicalnear-shore site
13
Steering Committee
Carbon Trust Management Team
Innovators, designers
Innovators, designers
Innovators, designers
Innovators, designers
OWA partnersCarbon Trust3rd party contractors
125+ people
500+ companies
Technical Working Group
Technical Working Group
Technical Working Group
Wake Effects AccessFoundationsTechnical
Working Group
Electrical
Research performed within Technical Working GroupsInnovation is provided by third-parties
14
Many companies engaged by OWA to deliver innovation
Wake effects DevelopersDesigners Fabricators InstallersElectrical systems O&M
Foundations
15
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FoundationsWake Effects
ElectricalATL
New area 1New area 2Co
mm
on R
&D
Demo proj. 1
Selected Demo proj. 2
Selected Demo proj. 3
Selected Demo proj. 4Selected Demo proj. 5
ETC
Dis
cret
iona
ry
proj
ects
CommonPartner “A” participationOther Partners’ Projects
Two types of activity: Common R&D and Discretionary ProjectsPartners opt-in to participate in Discretionary Projects
16
Some important stakeholders for OWA
Funders
WTG OEMs
Finance community
Innovators, designers
R&D institutes F
W E
A
OWA
17
OWA focuses on strengthening economics of offshore wind
Offshore wind returns
YieldOPEXCAPEX
Wake effects
AccessFoundations
Electrical systems
Fina
ncin
g co
sts
Four technology areas, selected on basis of detailed analysis of over 70 technical barriers
18
Most of UK licenced capacity is in 20-60m depths
Source: Crown Estate 2009
560
5,060
3,660
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Round 1, 2 and 3potential installedcapacity (MW)
Depth (m)
60-70
50-60
40-50
30-40 6,220
20-30 6,260
10-20 1,340
0-10 580
835
5,880
6,050
Round 3Round 2Round 1
Foundations
19
Turbine installation rates will need to increase dramatically Number of turbines installed per year 2003 - 20201
1,0001,000900
700
500500400400
333300218
150673330302021
202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003
1. Number of turbines calculated from actual and forecast installed capacity figures, assuming 3MW turbines 2003 – 2013, and 5MW turbines from 2014Source: Carbon Trust “Offshore wind power: big challenge, big opportunity”, 2008; Carbon Trust analysis 2010
One new turbineinstalled per day
2.5 new turbines installed per day
One new turbineinstalled every 11 days
Over 6,000 turbines to beinstalled over 10 years
ModelledActuals
Foundations
20
Fabrication
Foundations research area focuses on 30-60m
Shortlist FinalistsKeystone
Gifford / BMT /Freyssinet
SPT Offshore
MBD
Airbus A320
Source: Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator 2010, IHC
IHC
Foundations
Current focus
Installation
Demonstration
21
Electrical systems opportunity: higher voltage arrays
Electrical Systems
Current priorities
Engaging cable suppliers to deliver higher voltage cables
Optimising design of switchgear, transformers
BenefitImproved reliabilityLower losses
Source: Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator 2010
22
Next stepsDevelop more accurate wake effects modelsDevelop tools to optimise layoutsMeasurement campaign to reduce data collection costs
More accurate models are being developedIncreases wind farm yields and reduces financing costs
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8Column
Nor
mal
ised
Pow
er
Model A
Model B
Model C
Model D
Model Db
Model Ea
Model Ec
Model F
Model F Stable
UpWind
Measured Data
Upper 25%
Low er 25%
Coloured lines represent different
models or model variants
Wake Effects
Source: Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator 2010
23
New technologies required to implement optimal strategies
Access competition to increase availability and safetyOver 450 designs entered
Challenge: improve access in tough metocean conditions
Vessels
Transfer systems
Launch & recovery systems
Source: Carbon Trust Offshore Wind Accelerator 2010
Access Systems
24
Some excellent R&D is being performed in EuropeExamples
Denmark – Risø
Germany – RAVE, Fraunhofer
Netherlands – ECN, FLOW
Norway – NOWITECH
Sweden – Vindforsk III
UK – ETI, NAREC
25
Greater collaboration is neededReduce duplication, increase efficiency
4
4
5
5
7
8
10
15
23
0 5 10 15 20 25
Ecosystem
Wind resource assessment
Turbine development
Grid integration
Foundations
Wake effects
Access / O&M
Electrical systems
Floating wind turbine
No. projects
Source: Carbon Trust analysis 2010
OWA focus area
26
We are focusing our RD&D efforts on the needs of end users
Cost reduction in site conditions applicable to EU market
RD&D is essential for driving down cost of offshore wind
Strengthens economic returns
Reduces financing costs
Reduces costs to consumers
Accelerates deployment
Greater collaboration would benefit everyone
Avoids duplication and reinvention
Conclusions