Carlo Azzarri, Melanie Bacou, Ali Bittinger, Zhe Guo, Dave Hodson, Jawoo Koo, An Notenbaert,

Ria Tenorio, Pierre Sibiry Traore, Stanley Wood

Sustainable intensification of crop-livestock systems to improve food security and farm income diversification in the Ethiopian highlands

ILRI-Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 30 Jan - 2 Feb2012

Sustainable Intensification of Farming Systems:M&E Goals, Implementation Strategy,

and Data & Analysis Platform

M&E Guiding Principles• FtF Compliance: Conform to the FtF (& GoE?) core indicators• Multi-scale, Multi-site reporting: Meet broad stakeholder needs and support

multi-scale/multi-site M&E through;– Action-site, sub-system and system reporting– Country reports: Breakout of site reports to serve national stakeholder needs– Regional Site-reports: for each of the three regional SI program sites– SSA-reports: cross-system reporting and SI-wide “roll-up” of indicators across: Sudano-

Sahelian zone, Ethiopian Highlands, Eastern and Southern Africa

• Monitoring & projection: Provide monitoring reports and short-term projections (targets) of key M&E indicators for intervention sites in project “Zone of Influence”, updated annually

• Scaling indicators up and out (spatial & temporal): Using a range of biophysical, bio-economic , market and welfare models to undertake ex ante analysis of output, outcome, and impact indicators. (Keywords: extrapolation, aggregation, trade-offs, spillover potential, sustainability, welfare and environmental goals)

• Open-access data and analysis platform: Maintain a transparent, open-access M&E data management and analysis platform to serve the needs of SI stakeholders

FtF USAID “Required” IndicatorsResults

Framework Title Indicator Level Freq. Type DisaggregationSustainably Reduce Global Poverty and Hunger

1 Prevalence of underweight children (<5years)

Nat., PZoI

Bienn. DHS (5yrs) IM Sex: M, F

2 Prevalence of poverty Nat., PZoI Bienn. IM FNM/MNF/M&F

Inclusive Agricutural Sector Growth

3 Per capita expenditure (income proxy)

Nat.,PZoI Bienn. OC FNM/MNF/M&F

4 Percentage change in agricultural GDP Nat. Ann. IM -

5 Women's empowerment in agricultural index PZoI Bienn. IM TBD

Improved Nutritional Status, (especially of women and children)

6 Prevalence of stunted children (<5 yrs)

Nat., PZoI

Bienn. DHS (5yrs) IM Sex: M, F

7 Prevalence of wasted children (<5 yrs)

Nat., PZoI

Bienn. DHS (5yrs) IM Sex: M, F

8 Prevalence of underweight women

Nat. , PZoI

Bienn. DHS (5yrs) IM -

FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” IndicatorsResults

Framework Title Indicator Level Freq. Type DisaggregationIncreased Employment in Targeted Value Chains

1 # jobs attributed to FTF support

PZoI, Targeted beneficiaries

Ann. OC 1. Sex: Male, Female2. New vs. Continuing3. Urban vs. Rural

Improved Agricultural Productivity(adequate for SI productivity?)

2 Gross margin per unit land, kg., or animal (selected product varies by country)

PZoI, Targeted commodities, Fisheries, Livestock

Ann. OC 1. Targeted product (crop/animal)

2. Rainfed vs. Irrigated 3. Gendered hh type: FNM, MNF, M&F

Increased Public Sector Investment

3 Share of national budget invested in agriculture

National Ann. OC -

Enhanced Technology Development, Dissemination, Management and Innovation

4 # hectares under improved technologies or man. practices

PZoI, Targeted ha

Ann. OC 1. New vs. Continuing; 2. Technology Type: (11 Categories)

Results Framework

Title Indicator Level Freq. Type Disaggregation

Enhanced Capacity for Increasing

Agricultural Sector

Productivity

5 # farmers and others applying new technologies or management practices

PZoI, Targeted beneficiaries

Ann. OC 1. Sex: Male, Female 2. Livelihood type (farmer,

processor, extension, etc)3. New vs. Continuing

6 # individuals receiving short-term training in ag. sector productivity or food security training

PZoI, Targeted beneficiaries

Ann. OP 1. Sex: Male, Female 2. Livelihood type (farmer,

processor, extension, etc)3. New vs. Continuing

7 # groups (private enterprises, producer, water user, women‘s and trade associations and CBOs) receiving USG assistance

PZoI, Targeted beneficiaries

Ann. OP 1. Organization type (private, producers, women)

2. New vs. Continuing

8 # groups applying new technologies or management practices as a result of USG assistance

PZoI, Targeted beneficiaries

Ann. OC 1. Organization type (private, producers, women)

2. New vs. Continuing

FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators

Results Framework

Title Indicator Level Freq. Type Disaggregation

Expanding Markets and Trade

9 Value of incremental sales (collected at farm-level) attributed to FtF implementation

PZoI, targeted beneficiaries & commodities

Ann. OC Commodity/Product

10 Percent change in value of intra-regional trade In targeted agricultural commodities

National/Regional level

Ann. OC 1. Exporting Country2. Commodity/ Product

Improved Access to Business Development & Financial and Risk Management Services

11 Value of Agricultural and Rural Loans

Project-level, targeted beneficiaries with USG assistance

Ann. OP 1. Type of loan recipient: (producers, traders, etc)2. Sex of recipient person or organization

FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators

Results Framework

Title Indicator Level Freq. Type Disaggregation

Increased Investment in Agriculture and Nutrition-related Activities

12 Value of new private sector investment in the ag. sector or food chain leveraged

PZoI Ann. OC -

13 # Firms or CSOs in agricultural and food security manufacturing and services operating more profitably

PZoI, Targeted firms/CSOs

Ann. OC Firms: by profitability classCSOs: by operational and financial self-sufficiency

Enhanced Technology Development, Dissemination, Management and Innovation

14 # Hectares of ag. land (fields, rangeland. agro-forests) showing improved biophysical conditions

PZoI Bienn. (req.) Ann. (rec.)

OC Management practices: no/low till, perm. soil cover, integration of perennials, water harvesting etc.

FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators

Eastern & Southern Africa Maize-based SystemsSudano-Sahelian Zone

Ethiopian Highlands

Systems

Sub-Systems

+

+ +++

+

ActionSites

SI Monitoring and Reporting Levels

Fostering Spillover by Design

1. Implementation sites to local sub-systems

2. Implementation to non-implementation sub-systems

3. Sub-systems to (sub-) systems

4. Systems to systems5. Sites to sites

& Spillovers

Source: Dixon el al. 2001

Targeting, Priorities, Hypotheses & Sites

POVERTY (1000 people)FS_NAME E S W Total Cum %

Cereal-root crop mixed 2,764 11,811 30,570 45,145 15.5Maize mixed 28,065 16,277 9 44,352 30.7Root crop 14,219 2,451 27,644 44,314 45.9Agro-pastoral millet/sorghum 384 1,868 24,729 26,981 55.1Forest based 20,365 87 3,535 23,988 63.3Highland perennial 23,278 23,278 71.3Tree crop 1,569 541 17,199 19,308 77.9

MAIZE AREA (1000 ha) FS_NAME E S W Total Maize mixed 2,860 3,197 0 6,057 24.2Cereal-root crop mixed 128 1,214 2,718 4,059 40.4Large commercial_smalholder 3,440 3,440 54.1Root crop 711 329 2,228 3,268 67.2Tree crop 145 4 1,647 1,796 74.3

HIGH PHOSPHORUS FIXATION (SHARE OF GRID CELL AREA, %) E S W Total

Highland perennial 34.0 34.0Forest based 14.0 26.0 15.0 16.0Tree crop 13.0 37.0 9.0 12.0Highland temperate mixed 13.0 11.0 8.0 11.0Maize mixed 17.0 6.0 6.0 11.0

TRAVEL TIME TO CLOSEST PORT (hours)FS_NAME E S W Total

Coastal artisanal fishing 15 22 15 15Large commercial_smalholder 19 19Tree crop 17 16 20 19Highland temperate mixed 26 18 19 21Rice-Tree crop 26 26

Source: Zhe Guo (HarvestChoice 2011)

Targeting, Priorities, Hypotheses & Sites

Source: Ethiopian Highlands SI Concept Note 2012

Targeting, Priorities, Hypotheses & Sites

West Africa: Conceptual Framework for Site Selection, Technology Screening and Deployment

Sub-system Anthropization(Market Access, Population Density)

Site/HH Specific Attributes(Topography, Endowment)Household Typologies

NEXTSpatial analysis to provide geographic definition and characterization of such “representative” sub-systems domains

Sub-systemResource Potential

(Land, Rainfall)

+

+

Upper West RegionBougouni

Upper East RegionKoutiala

HH Crop Enterprise Diversification0

15,0

0030

,000

# of

hou

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maize,s

orghu

m,peas

maize,b

eans

maize,s

orghu

m,bean

s

maize,p

eppe

r

teff,m

aize,s

orghu

mteff

maize,w

heat,

pepp

er

sorgh

um

teff,m

aize

bean

s

teff,b

eans

maize,s

orghu

mmaiz

e

rural Ethiopia# of households growing

Note: to be included in each farming system, the minimum land size of each crop is .02 ha

Region OROMIAZone (All)

Seed UsePesticide Use Local Seed Improved Seed Grand TotalNo 63.79% 2.91% 66.70%0.00 - 0.06 Hectares 13.43% 0.38% 13.81%0.14 - 0.27 Hectares 16.58% 0.71% 17.29%0.06 - 0.14 Hectares 13.79% 0.50% 14.30%0.27 - 1.3 Hectares 19.99% 1.31% 21.30%

Yes 31.56% 1.74% 33.30%0.00 - 0.06 Hectares 1.72% 0.02% 1.74%0.14 - 0.27 Hectares 8.62% 0.50% 9.13%0.06 - 0.14 Hectares 4.79% 0.26% 5.05%0.27 - 1.3 Hectares 16.44% 0.95% 17.39%

Grand Total 95.36% 4.64% 100.00%

Intensification of Wheat Production (HH Scale Characterization)

Intensification Metrics: SI index

• Normalized index with weights based on the first principal component, the linear combination capturing the greatest variation among the set of variables:

-input index* (imp. seed, org & inorg fert, pesticide, extension…)-land size-head’s education-[crop] farm land-[crop] production share-[crop] farm land share-[crop] yield

RAIN

FED

WHE

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imati

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itabi

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RecommendedFertilizer Rate

No Fertilizer

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eld

resp

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ferti

lizer

High : 8000

Low : 1

Mean Yield (kg/ha)

4000

3.M

odel

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ate

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Transport cost: Port toFarm-gate

Transport cost: Capital to Farm-gate

Wheat farming enterprise data

050

100150200250300350400450

Whe

at p

rice

(US$

/ton

)

Nominal world wheat price Real world wheat price

International wheat and fertilizer prices

4.Pr

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Profitability Sensitivity AnalysisTool (Excel)

Variety: Digelu Variety: Veery

Keny

a

Et

hiop

ia

Yield Yield

No fert.

100% Rec. Fert.

No fert.

100% Rec. Fert.

Net Economic Return and Potential Production

Country Net economic return (US $/ Ha) Incremental net economic return (% )

T0 T1 T2 T0 to T1 T0to T2 T1 to T2

Angola -198.60 -85.75 -22.11 56.82 88.87 74.22Burundi 753.11 1096.98 1362.42 45.66 80.91 24.20Ethiopia 59.62 173.80 233.87 191.51 292.27 34.56Kenya 741.03 976.46 1160.50 31.77 56.61 18.85Madagascar 161.46 239.31 267.92 48.22 65.94 11.96Mozambique -46.94 29.15 39.20 162.10 183.51 34.48Rwanda 1131.30 1377.55 1566.96 21.77 38.51 13.75Tanzania 379.00 554.67 658.47 46.35 73.74 18.71DRC 171.67 347.30 454.33 102.31 164.65 30.82Uganda 639.29 903.64 1103.94 41.35 72.68 22.17Zambia 67.72 310.20 449.48 358.06 563.73 44.90Zimbabwe -25.72 236.49 400.16 1019.48 1655.83 69.21

Source: CIMMYT – HarvestChoice “Wheat Potential for Africa “ (2011)

Some Key M&E Activities

• Stratification of farming systems: Relies on the fusion of spatially-explicit agricultural production, environmental, and farm/household data, and hypotheses on SI evolution and impact pathways (linked to site selection & sampling design)

• Map planned interventions into indicators: • Design & Conduct of Surveys: To provide periodic, robust estimates of

agreed indicators for target populations in PZoI (and satisfy other analytical data needs)

• Maintaining a Technology/Intervention Inventory: A characterized inventory of the farming system components whose integration, adoption and impact is being evaluated. Includes characterization of spillover potential.

• Establishing a Linked System of Models: To support M&E reporting cycle (up/out-scaling and projections with and w/o SI interventions), of output, outcome and impact indicators

• Attribution assessment: Beyond monitoring and modeling change in indicators is the need (with additional information/assumptions) to attribute changes to the extent required by donors (ex post studies?)

M&E Implementation Strategy (to date)

• Establish Core FtF Monitoring Obligations: Primarily with USAID Washington (e.g., agree required core indicators and reporting timelines)

• Recruit M&E Coordinator: IFPRI to recruit SI M&E Coordinator (Senior International Research position) with support staff in addition to DC-based team.

• Establish M&E Implementation Community: To contribute to and finalize project M&E design, as well as guide, participate in and review M&E work plans and deliverables (composition, e.g., M&E specialist/liaison from involved CG centers, donor and national and regional partners).

• M&E Open-Access, Web-Based Platform: To host and make accessible SI M&E plans, documents, and annual reports, as well as background publications, underlying datasets and analytical tools. Promote and apply standards for farming system, technology and impact characterization.

• Annual M&E Technical Meeting: Likely aligned with proposed Project-wide Annual meeting (Need for cross-site planning and review meetings?)

3-9 Months

9-12 Months

Year 1 Timeline

✔1-3

Months

Site Selection/Characterization

ComponentInventory

Activity -> Indicator List

Survey Design

Baseline Survey

Component DB

Potential Impact Evaluation: Scaling Out & Projection

Site/Station (& R&D) Inventory

• Station Location (if known, Lat:___ Long: ___)– Location Name: ________________________________– District: _____________ Region: __________________

• Site/Station Full Name: ______________________• Institution: ________________________________• Technologies/Practices tested/demonstrated

• Contact details

Issues/Questions• Making an appropriate split of M&E resources between the M & the E? (e.g.,

strong interest in early assessments of outcomes and impact over time)• Process of selecting components? (responds to supply or demand?)• Likely cost of meeting donor’s minimum indicator needs?• Internal project management versus strategic M&E needs?• Establishing shared roles in data and tool development and application

between implementation partners and M&E team (involve scientists in M&E team)?– e.g. obtaining appropriate cross-fertilization between M&E team and other teams in

site selection, field data collection, annual reporting/analysis? Any feeling this should be “arms-length”?

• What interest in being part of the M&E community (especially from national partners)?

• Any likely candidates for M&E Coordinator?