Carlton Small Area Demographic Profile 2013 · Carlton Small Area Demographic Profile 4 / 20 1. Key...

Carlton Small Area Demographic Profile

2013

www.melbourne.vic.gov.au


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Contents

1. Key findings ............................................................................................... 4

2. Profile ......................................................................................................... 5

2.1. History and environment of Carlton ........................................................ 5

2.2. Geography of Carlton small area ............................................................ 6

2.3. Demographic profile................................................................................ 7

2.4. Social profile ........................................................................................... 8

2.4.1. Education ............................................................................................ 8

2.4.2. Household and family structure ........................................................... 9

2.4.3. Culture and language profile ............................................................... 9

2.4.4. Internet connection at home ................................................................ 9

2.5. Income profile ....................................................................................... 10

2.6. Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) ............................................. 11

2.7. Housing ................................................................................................ 13

2.8. Land use and business activity ............................................................. 14

2.9. Workforce ............................................................................................. 15

2.10. Future outlook ....................................................................................... 18

2.10.1. Development activity ......................................................................... 18

2.10.2. Population projections ....................................................................... 19

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Disclaimer

While all due care has been taken to ensure that the content of this report is accurate and current, there may be errors or omissions in it and no legal responsibility is accepted for the information and opinions contained within.

In addition, as the report is based on historic information that is subject to revision and assumptions in preparing forecast figures that are both difficult to predict and liable to change, we do not guarantee the reports currency.

Data sources

Unless otherwise stated, all data in this report are based on the Australian Bureau of Statistics 2011 Census of Population and Housing.

City of Melbourne’s own Census of Land Use and Employment (CLUE) 2010 database also utilised for various economic, land use and employment related analysis.

Forecast population estimates provided via 2011-2036 Population and Household forecasts, id Consultants, last updated October 2013.

Further information

For further information about this small area, another small area with the City of Melbourne or the municipality overall, see the City Research webpage found via the City of Melbourne homepage:

http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/AboutMelbourne/Statistics/Pages/Statistics.aspx

This link also contains other demographic reports related to various elements of the City of Melbourne and the small areas contained within it, such as: Workers Profile, Students Profile, High rise Dwellers profile, Younger Persons Profile, Older Persons Profile and Key Changes between 2006 & 2011 Censuses.

http://www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/AboutMelbourne/Statistics/Pages/Statistics.aspx


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1. Key findings Carlton was the second most populous small area in the City of Melbourne (the ‘municipality’) with only the Melbourne CBD area housing more residents. The 14,109 residents in Carlton represented 15% of the municipality’s overall population.

There were 8416 dwellings in Carlton representing around 14% of the municipality, with residential apartments comprising 44% of all housing types. Carlton had the highest proportion of rented dwellings among the municipality’s small areas (62%) and also the lowest comparative proportion of dwellings owned outright or mortgaged (17%).

Carlton had a relatively young population with a median age of 25, compared to 28 for the municipality, 36 for Greater Melbourne and 37 for Australia. Just under half (46%) of Carlton’s residents were aged 12 to 25, with only eight per cent aged 60 years or older.

More than half (56%) of Carlton’s residents were born overseas with 49% speaking a language other than English at home. China was the most common country of birth (10%) and Mandarin was the most common language spoken at home (15%).

The median personal weekly income of $366 was the second lowest average income among the municipality’s small areas, with a relatively high proportion of residents (37%) earning a weekly income of below $300. One in five (22%) residents did not earn an income.

A key factor contributing to the median age, median income, high propensity to rent and high proportion of foreign language speaking residents was the one third (35%) of Carlton’s population who were higher education students, a significant proportion of whom were international students, were relatively young and either not working at all or working in low income jobs.

The most common household type in Carlton was a lone person household (43%), followed by family households (30%) and group households (18%).

Carlton scored lower than the municipality average for all four SEIFA (Socio-Economic Index for Areas) metrics, indicating significant pockets of disadvantage. For three of the four indexes Carlton ranked last compared to the other populated small areas.

More than 15,000 people worked in Carlton with the most common occupation a ‘professional’ (37%), with 87% of the workforce residing outside of Carlton but within Greater Melbourne.

Just over one third of workers (36%) used some form of public transport to get to work, with driving a car the most common transport form, used by 45% of workers. Bicycles were ridden by 6%.

Carlton’s population is forecast to reach 28,000 by 2036, living in more than 14,000 households. This forecast predicts that Carlton’s share of the municipality’s population and proportion of households are both expected to remain at around 14%.

An ‘average’ resident in Carlton today is no longer an elderly Italian small business owner as the area was perhaps once known for, but more commonly a younger Chinese-born student.

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2. Profile

2.1. History and environment of Carlton

Carlton is the traditional home of Melbourne’s Italian community. Visitors and locals flock to the suburb for the atmospheric Italian restaurants and cafés that spill on to bustling Lygon Street.

Growing from its traditional Italian roots, these days Carlton has a greater proportion of residents from Eastern Asia, South-eastern Asia and the United Kingdom. Carlton has the second largest population in the municipality. It comprises a large population of local and international students many of which attend the nearby University of Melbourne and RMIT University.

Carlton is one of the most dynamic and diverse suburbs in the municipality. Entertainment, cultural and leisure activities can be found side by side with its educational, business, retail and residential facilities.

Virtually all of Carlton falls within the municipality's boundaries. Besides Lygon Street, this area includes the historic Melbourne General Cemetery, Princes Park (home to the Carlton Football Club) and the beautiful Carlton Gardens. The Gardens contain the striking, contemporary Melbourne Museum and the domed 19th century Royal Exhibition Building.

The Royal Exhibition Building and Carlton Gardens were inscribed on the World Heritage list on 1 July 2004, becoming the first building in Australia to achieve World Heritage listing. Today, the Royal Exhibition Building is a campus of Museum Victoria and the gardens are managed by the City of Melbourne.

Carlton is bounded by Nicholson Street in the east; Victoria Street in the south; Elizabeth Street, Grattan Street and Swanston Street in the west; and Cemetery Road West, Royal Parade, Bowen Crescent, MacPherson Street and Princes Street in the north. Included in this area is the section of Carlton North in the City of Melbourne, comprising Princes Park and the Melbourne General Cemetery.


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2.2. Geography of Carlton small area

Figure 1: Carlton small area geography within City of Melbourne

The small area of Carlton includes the suburb of Carlton (postcode 3052) plus the section of Carlton North in the City of Melbourne, comprising Princes Park and the Melbourne General Cemetery.

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2.3. Demographic profile

Figure 2: Key metrics of Carlton residents

Key metrics Carlton City of Melbourne

Residential population 14,109

(15% of City of Melbourne) 93,627

Younger residents (12-25 years) 46% 33%

Older residents (60 years and over) 8% 10%

Median age 25 28

Residents born overseas 56% 48%

Most common language spoken at home (other than English)

Mandarin (15%)

Mandarin (10%)

Weekly personal income <$300 37% 26%

Weekly personal income >$1250 14% 23%

Median personal weekly income $366 $711

Higher education (university) students 35% 21%

Bachelor degree or higher 36% 40%

Carlton’s residential population of 14,109 represents 15% of the City of Melbourne’s overall population.

Carlton has a relatively young population with a median age of 25, and has the second youngest median age of all small areas in the municipality behind only Parkville (24). Just under half (46%) of Carlton’s residents are aged 12 to 25, with a low 8% aged 60 years or older.

More than half (56%) of Carlton’s residents were born overseas with Mandarin the most common language spoken at home other than English; which was spoken by 15% of residents, the second highest proportion among the municipality’s small areas behind only Melbourne CBD (18%).

There was a relatively high proportion of residents earning a weekly income below $300 of 37%, the second highest proportion of low earners among the municipality’s small areas, behind only Parkville (42%). Conversely, a relatively low 14% of residents earned a weekly income above $1250 resulting in an average personal weekly income of $366, the second lowest average income among the municipality’s small areas behind only Parkville ($327).

Higher education students comprised 35% of Carlton’s population, the second highest proportion in the municipality behind only Parkville (42%); with a similar proportion of 36% holding a bachelor degree qualification or higher.


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Figure 3: Carlton age profile

A significant factor defining the age of range for the majority of Carlton’s residential population is the number of universities located within or adjacent to the Carlton small area. Almost six in ten (58%) of Carlton’s residents were aged 20 to 34 years, a proportion equal to that of the Southbank small area and only behind Melbourne CBD small area (66%). Overall, around half (52%) of the City of Melbourne residents overall were within this age range.

2.4. Social profile

2.4.1. Education

Just under half (45%) of Carlton’s residents attended an educational institution, the second highest proportion among the municipality’s small areas behind only Parkville (49%). Among Carlton’s students, 79% were undertaking higher education (i.e. university or similar).

Higher education students comprised 35% of Carlton’s total population, the second highest proportion in the municipality behind only Parkville (42%).

More than one third (36%) of Carlton’s residents held a bachelor degree qualification or higher.

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Carlton

Median age: 25

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2.4.2. Household and family structure

Family households* accounted for three in 10 (30%) household types in Carlton. The most common household type was lone person households, comprising 43% of all occupied dwellings, with group households accounting for 18%.

These proportions of household types meant that, relative to all small areas in the City of Melbourne, Carlton was:

• the least likely to house family household types • the most likely to house lone household types • the second most likely to house group household types (behind only Parkville, with 18%).

*Note: a family is defined by the ABS as two or more persons, one of whom is at least 15 years of age, who are related by blood, marriage (registered or de facto), adoption, step or fostering, and who are usually resident in the same household.

2.4.3. Culture and language profile

More than half (56%) of Carlton’s residents were born overseas, the second highest proportion among the municipality’s small areas (behind only Melbourne CBD at 66%). The most common countries of birth included: China (10%), Malaysia (9%), Singapore (4%), Indonesia (3%), and Hong Kong (2%).

Strongly correlated to country of birth statistics, 49% of Carlton’s residents spoke a language other than English at home. Carlton has the second highest proportion of residents speaking a language other than English at home compared to all small areas in the municipality, behind only Melbourne CBD (55%). The most common languages spoken include: Mandarin, Cantonese, Indonesian, Somali, and Arabic.

2.4.4. Internet connection at home

Around one in ten (10%) households in Carlton did not have an Internet connection to their dwelling. The most common Internet connection type was broadband, with 69% of households connected this way, a comparable proportion to the 71% with broadband connection across the overall municipality.

A low 3% of households maintained a dial-up Internet connection, 6% accessed the Internet via an other* connection type, while 12% of households did not provide an answer to this Census question.

* Note on Internet connection types:

• Broadband connection includes: ADSL, Cable, Wireless, Satellite, Fibre and Mobile connections

• Dial up connection includes: analogue modem and ISDN connections • Other connection type includes: Internet access through mobile phones, etc.


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2.5. Income profile

Figure 4: Carlton income comparisons

Income (weekly) Carlton City of Melbourne

Median total personal income $366 $711

Median total family income $1298 $1962

Median total household income $634 $1352

The median total personal income for Carlton was around half (51%) of that for the overall municipality median, with median total household income slightly below half (47%) of the overall municipality median. Median total family income was closer to the municipality median at 66%, but still significantly lower.

Among the small areas in the City of Melbourne, Carlton has the second highest proportion of persons earning a personal income of less than $300 per week (37%, behind only Parkville with 42%), and also the smallest proportion of persons earning an personal income of more than $1250 per week (14%).

Carlton was equal with the Melbourne CBD small area for the highest proportion of residents reporting a nil or negative personal income, with 22% stating a nil or negative income.

Carlton contained the smallest proportion of residents earning a personal income in the highest bracket reported by the ABS of $2000 or more per week, with 5% declaring this level of personal income.

Figure 5: Carlton personal weekly income profile

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Median personal income: $366

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2.6. Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA)

SEIFA is a suite of four indexes compiled from data collected in the ABS 2011 Census which rank areas in terms of the socio-economic characteristics of persons and households in that area. SEIFA allows for comparisons of areas whereby the lower the score, the greater the disadvantage relative to other comparable areas.

The Index of Relative Socio-economic Advantage and Disadvantage (IRSAD) summarises information about the economic and social conditions of people and households within an area, including both relative advantage and disadvantage measures.

The Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage (IRSD) is a general socio-economic index that summarises a range of information about the economic and social conditions of people and households within an area. Unlike the other indexes, this index includes only measures of relative disadvantage.

The Index of Economic Resources (IER) focuses on the financial aspects of relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage, by summarising variables related to income and wealth. This index excludes education and occupation variables because they are not direct measures of economic resources. It also misses some assets such as savings or equities which, although relevant, could not be included because this information was not collected in the 2011 Census.

The Index of Education and Occupation (IEO) is designed to reflect the educational and occupational level of communities. The education variables in this index show either the level of qualification achieved or whether further education is being undertaken. The occupation variables classify the workforce into the major groups and skill levels of the Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupations (ANZSCO) and the unemployed. This index does not include any income variables.

The following diagram represents the continuum that should be considered when interpreting SEIFA scores.

* Note that for the IRSD, a high index score represents “Least Disadvantaged”.

*


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Figure 6: Carlton SEIFA Indexes

SEIFA 2011 Index Carlton City of Melbourne

Advantage and Disadvantage 980 1051

Disadvantage 942 1026

Economic Resources 768 870

Education and Occupation 1149 1175

Usual Resident Population 14,109 93,627

Carlton ranks last on the four SEIFA indexes compared to the other populated small areas in the City of Melbourne for three out of four indexes. For ‘Education and Occupation’ it ranked second to last, ahead of North Melbourne.

Carlton scored lower than the overall City of Melbourne average for all four indexes, with the three scores lower than 1000 indicating significant pockets of disadvantage within this small area.

It should also be noted that the relatively high proportion of university students living in Carlton, and particularly international students, are often financially supported by means other than individual employment. Analysis of SEIFA data can therefore make this population appear to be more disadvantaged than reality, as personal income is a key factor in determining SEIFA rankings.

Furthermore, a significant public housing estate is located at the north of Carlton, impacting the socio-economic profile of the small area.

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2.7. Housing

Figure 7: Carlton Housing Statistics

Housing metrics Carlton City of Melbourne

Number of dwellings* 8416 58,733

Most prominent housing type* Residential apartments

(44%) Residential apartments

(67%)

Occupied private dwellings fully owned or being purchased

17% 27%

Occupied private dwellings rented 62% 49%

Unoccupied private dwellings 9% 12%

Median rent per week $341 $400

Median mortgage per month $1900 $2167

*Note: data sourced from CLUE 2010. All other data sourced from ABS 2011 Census

There were 8416 dwellings in Carlton, representing around 14% of the municipality’s overall dwellings. The most common dwelling type in Carlton was residential apartments, comprising 44% of all housing types but was the lowest proportion of residential apartments across all of the municipality’s small areas.

Carlton had the smallest proportion of private dwellings either fully owned or being purchased with a mortgage at 17%, while the 62% being rented was the highest proportion among the municipality’s small areas.

The median weekly rental repayment of $341 was the second lowest (behind only North Melbourne at $335), while the median monthly mortgage payment of $1900 was the lowest across all small areas.

Carlton had the equal lowest proportion of unoccupied private dwellings with 9% unoccupied, equal with Kensington.

As previously mentioned in this report, many of the above observations are evidence of the large student cohort residing in Carlton, having particular effect on the metrics of home ownership and personal income.


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2.8. Land use and business activity

Figure 8: Land use and business activity profile

Land use and business metrics Carlton City of Melbourne % Share

Business locations with employment

1151 15,959 7%

Most prominent built space Residential

Accommodation Office –

Most prominent industry by floor Arts and Recreation

Services Arts and Recreation

Services –

Most prominent industry by Employment

Education and Training

Business Services –

Retail locations with employment

164 2575 6%

Commercial car parks 12 181 7%

Commercial car park spaces 5442 64,887 8%

Café/restaurant/bistro 202 1951 10%

Food court 1 32 3%

Bar/tavern/pub/nightclub 14 252 6%

Office space (m2) 204,499 5,204,070 4%

Vacant floor space (m2) 123,588 3,092,962 4%

*Note: data in Figure 8 sourced from CLUE 2010

Carlton contains 7% of the municipality’s business locations, with Arts and Recreation Services the most prominent industry in terms of floor space.

The most prominent built space was Residential Accommodation, which accounted for one quarter (26%) of all built space in Carlton. Carlton’s Residential Accommodation comprised 10% of the total built space in the City of Melbourne.

The industry Education and Training employed the largest proportion of workers in Carlton (23%).

Note: The main campus of Melbourne University is situated in the Parkville small area, not Carlton. A map of the boundaries may be found at earlier in this report.

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2.9. Workforce

Figure 9: Where Carlton residents work

Workplace location Carlton resident

Work in Carlton 722

Work in Melbourne CBD 1412

Work in City of Melbourne (outside Carlton or CBD) 1013

Work outside City of Melbourne 2292

Not stated 168

Total employed Carlton residents 5607

The most common workplace location for employed Carlton residents was outside the City of Melbourne (41%), with Melbourne CBD the next most common location with one quarter (25%) working there. A further 18% worked in the City of Melbourne, but outside Carlton or Melbourne CBD, while the remaining 13% worked within the small area of Carlton.

Figure 10: Residential location of workers

Carlton workforce = 15,245

The vast majority of Carlton’s workers, some 87%, reside outside of Carlton, but within Greater Melbourne. A small proportion of 3% commute from outside Greater Melbourne to work in Carlton.

Carlton has the second highest proportion (6%) of its workforce living within the City of Melbourne boundary, but outside the relevant small area (second only to Parkville, with 7%). Combined with the 5% of workers who reside within Carlton, 11% of Carlton’s workforce reside within the City of Melbourne – which is slightly higher than the overall 8% of City of Melbourne workers who reside within the municipality’s boundary.

5%

6%

87%

3%

Where Carlton workers reside

Carlton

City of Melbourne(outside Carlton)

Metro Melbourne(outside City of Melbourne)

Outside Greater Melbourne


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Figure 11: Method of transport of workers to Carlton*

Method of transport Carlton City of Melbourne

Train 24% 39%

Car, as driver 45% 34%

Tram 10% 10%

Walked only 7% 5%

Bicycle 6% 4%

Car, as passenger 4% 4%

Bus 2% 2%

Motorbike/scooter 1% 1% #Other transport method combinations 1% 1%

Total 100% (13,250) 100% (320,473)

Public transport total (train, tram, bus) 36% 51%

Workers who travelled to work on Census day = 13,250 (City of Melbourne = 320,473) Workers who did not go to work, worked at home, not stated = 1995 (City of Melbourne = 39,857)

# Other transport method combinations include: taxi, truck, ferry and other combinations, not accounted for in assumptions listed below.

Proportions include single methods of transport and combined methods of transport used by workers.

* When combinations of transport methods are used, the following assumptions have been applied: • Train plus another method or methods are counted as train journeys • Tram plus another method or methods not including train are counted as tram journeys • Bus plus another method or methods not including train nor tram are counted as bus journeys • Ferry plus another method or methods not including train, tram nor bus are counted as ferry journeys • Bicycle plus another method or methods not including any public transport options are counted as bicycle journeys • Car as driver plus another method or methods not including any public transport options nor a bicycle are counted as car as driver • Car as passenger plus another method or methods not including any public transport options, a bicycle nor a car as a driver are counted as car as passenger • Other plus another method or methods not including any public transport options, a bicycle nor car (either driver or passenger), are counted as other

Driving a car was the most common form of transport for Carlton workers (45%), with around one quarter (24%) catching a train. A higher proportion walked or rode a bike compared to the municipality overall (7% vs. 5% and 6% vs. 4% respectively). Overall, around four in 10 (39%) used some form of public transport to get to work in Carlton.

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Figure 12: Key characteristics of workers in Carlton

Key metrics Carlton City of Melbourne

Number of job positions* (CLUE 2010)

17,827 428,721

Number of workers 15,245 360,330

Professionals 37% 22%

Managers 14% 8%

Labourers 3% 2%

Full-time 64% 75%

Part-time 31% 20%

*Note: Number of job positions sourced from CLUE 2010

Workers located in Carlton contributed 4% of the municipality’s total workforce, with more than 15,000 people employed in the area covering just under 18,000 job roles.

The occupations of Professionals (37%) and Clerical and Administrative Workers (20%) were the most prolific in Carlton, with around two thirds (64%) of all workers employed in a full-time capacity. Around one quarter (23%) of all workers employed as Professionals worked as a Business, Human Resource and Marketing Professional.


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2.10. Future outlook

2.10.1. Development activity

Figure 13: Development activity

Development activity

Under construction

Construction 0-2 years

Construction 3-5 years Mooted Total

Residential dwellings

Carlton 1228 497 293 1050 3068

City of Melbourne 13,451 11,726 13,031 16,329 54,537

Student apartments

Carlton – 428 14 – 442

City of Melbourne 435 555 20 – 1010

Office (m2)

Carlton 1500 120 242 140,600 142,462

City of Melbourne 385,856 362,525 371,722 495,577 1,615,679

Retail (m2)

Carlton 1487 489 775 15,050 17,801

City of Melbourne 38,476 30,786 33,489 55,041 157,792

Under Construction (the project was under construction at 27 May 2013). These projects will generally be occupied within the next year. Some larger projects may take longer before they are fully occupied.

Construction 0-2 years (the project is proposed to commence construction in the period 28 May 2013 – 27 May 2015). Projects reported as commencing construction in 0-2 years have usually received building approval and it is assumed that works will commence within two years.

Construction 3-5 years (the project is proposed to commence construction in the period 28 May 2015 – 27 May 2018). Projects reported as commencing construction in 3-5 years are usually in the process of obtaining planning approval, or approval has been granted subject to conditions that mean construction is unlikely to commence within two years.

Mooted. Projects reported as mooted are more speculative in nature. These sites are generally identified by developers as suitable for development, but planning proposals have not yet been lodged.

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2.10.2. Population projections

Figure 14: Population and household forecast

Carlton 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Residential population 19,296 21,637 23,611 26,317 28,381

Change in population (5 yrs) - 2341 1974 2706 2064

% change in population (5 yrs) - 12% 9% 11% 8%

Households 9421 10,683 11,732 13,193 14,335

Change in households (5 yrs) - 1262 1049 1461 1142

Carlton’s share of municipality’s population

14% 14% 14% 14% 13%

Carlton’s share of municipality’s households

15% 15% 14% 14% 14%

City of Melbourne 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Residential population 133,388 151,826 172,617 192,040 211,962

Change in population (5 yrs) - 18,438 20,791 19,423 19,922

% change in population (5 yrs) - 14% 14% 11% 10%

Households 63,100 72,693 83,187 93,269 103,614

Change in households (5 yrs) - 9593 10,494 10,082 10,345

Note: data for Figure 14 sourced from id Small Area Population Forecasts 2011 to 2036, City of Melbourne

Carlton’s share of the overall municipality’s residential population and proportion of households are expected to remain at around 14% for each, resulting in more than 28,000 residents and living in more than 14,000 households by 2036.


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Figure 15: Population forecast, by age group

Note: data for Figure 15 sourced from id Small Area Population Forecasts 2011 to 2036, City of Melbourne

There are no significant changes anticipated to the proportions of residents across the 5-year age ranges displayed in Figure 15, with increased numbers of residents across all age groups forecast by 2036.

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