Cassidy Turley - U.S. Industrial Trends - Q4 2014

8/12/2019 Cassidy Turley - U.S. Industrial Trends - Q4 2014

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4th Quarter 2013

U.S. Industrial

Trends Report
http://www.cassidyturley.com/


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2 | Cassidy Turley

Contents

U.S. Industrial Sector Analysis. .................................................................3-4U.S. Industrial Sales ...................................................................................5

Net Absorption by Metro. ..........................................................................6-7

Vacancy Rates by Metro............................................................................8-9

Asking Rents by Metro...........................................................................10-11

Inventory by Metro. ..............................................................................12-13

Methodology..............................................................................................14

Jennifer EdwardsResearch Manager2101 L Street, NW, Ste. 700Washington, DC [email protected]

Kevin ThorpeChief Economist2101 L Street, NW, Ste. 700Washington, DC [email protected]


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cassidyturley.com | 3

Economy

The U.S. recovery gathered momentum in the second half of 2013, and that helped the industrialsector close out another robust year of absorption. Real GDP growth registered a healthy 4.1%

in the third quarter of the year, and the latest data on business and consumer spending indicatesGDP growth will again exceed 3% in the fourth quarter. Remember, GDP growth has averaged justa tick above 2% during most of the current economic recovery, so the latest trends do represent asignicant acceleration.

All the key fundamentals that drive demand for industrial space generally gained momentum in thefourth quarter of 2013. Most notably, consumer spending remained surprisingly resilient. Retailsales grew around 4.5% in the fourth quarter from a year ago. This was a quarter that includeda 16-day partial government shutdown that was supposed to drag on spending didnt happen.Retail sales increased by 4% during 2013, more than doubling the pace registered in 2012. Theauto sector in particular was a strong performer all year long. But there was also strong evidence ofgrowth in multiple discretionary segments including home furnishings, electronics and appliances,restaurants and apparel stores. Manufacturing another key player in the industrial sector alsohelped drive better growth. The ISM manufacturing index a solid gauge for the health of themanufacturing sector has been consistently above 50 since July indicating the manufacturingsector remains in clear expansion mode.

We also a got a small dose of positive news, or at least, less terrible news, on the policy side things. Lawmakers reached a budget deal inDecember of 2013 - the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2013 - that will effectively keep the federal government funded through the fall of 2015.Although the deal did not address the long-term decit challenges from ballooning entitlement programs, in all probability, the accord did eliminatea portion of the sequestration cuts that were scheduled to occur in 2014 and 2015. As a result, scal policy (i.e., higher taxes and spending cutsthat knocked 1.5 percentage points off of real GDP growth in 2013), will restrain growth in 2014 by an estimated 0.3%. The gale-force headwindis nally dying down.

Industrial Sector

Demand for industrial space continues to be strong. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the U.S. industrial sector absorbed 34.8 million square feet(msf), up from the 31.7 msf absorbed in the previous quarter. In total, the industrial sector absorbed 121.3 msf in 2013 the strongest readingsince 1998. Vacancy is tightening rapidly, falling another 50 bps during 2013 to nish the year at 8.2%. Of the 68 metros tracked, 51 registereddeclines in vacancy in the fourth quarter compared to a year ago. The lofty demand numbers have sparked a new wave of development. Asthe fourth quarter came to a close, there was 71.1 msf of new industrial space under construction, up 85% compared to a year ago. Newdevelopment was particularly strong in Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas, Dayton, Houston, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Central New Jersey, Oakland-EastBay, Phoenix and Seattle all with 2 msf or more in the pipeline.

U.S. Net Absorption vs. Vacancy

Source: Cassidy Turley Research Source: Cassidy Turley Research

U.S. Industrial Sector Analysis

Market Indicators4th Quarter 2013

Net Absorption 34.8M

Asking Rents $5.20

Vacancy

UnderConstruction

8.2%

71.1M

20134Q

Trend(from previous Qtr)

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

$4.92

$4.96

$5.00

$5.04

$5.08

$5.12

$5.16

$5.20

$5.24

Q 4 1 1

Q 1 1 2

Q 2 1 2

Q 3 1 2

Q 4 1 2

Q 1 1 3

Q 2 1 3

Q 3 1 3

Q 4 1 3

Y r / Y r %

C h a n g e

A s k

i n g

R e n

t

Asking Rent Yr/Yr Change

7.6%

8.0%

8.4%

8.8%

9.2%

9.6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

Q 4 1 1

Q 1 1 2

Q 2 1 2

Q 3 1 2

Q 4 1 2

Q 1 1 3

Q 2 1 3

Q 3 1 3

Q 4 1 3

V a c a n c y

R a

t e

( m

s f )

Absorption Vacancy Rate

U.S. Asking Rents


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Industrial Sector cont.

Industrial rents are nally starting to gain upward momentum. Average asking rents rose to $5.20NNN in the fourth quarter, a 3.3% increase from a year ago. Rents are still 9.2% below theirpeak achieved in 2007, but they have been inching upward since the fourth quarter of 2012.Rents are now rising in 75% of the country, with over one-third of the markets tracked reporting5% rent growth or better.

Industrial sales activity, warehouse + ex, was a tale of two halves in 2013: slow in the rst half,strong in the second. Overall, 2013 will go down as another year of growing momentum for thecapital markets. From Jan-Nov of 2013, sales volume of signicant industrial properties totaled$40.5 billion, up 28% compared to the same period a year ago. The warehouse sector is drivingmost of the increase in activity, with sales volume up 36% during Jan-Nov 2013; ex sales wereup 11% over the same period. The warehouse sector is also experiencing a strong acceleration inprice appreciation. Average cap rates moved downward 20 basis points (bps) from the beginningof year to 7.3% in November.

Outlook

Demand for industrial space has been consistently strong through this slow economic recovery,and there little reason to believe it wont accelerate when the recovery morphs into somethingmore robust. Most economists are calling for exactly that. The consensus forecast projects realGDP growth to average 3% in 2014 roughly 100 bps stronger than the growth rate averaged formost of this recovery. Job growth is expected to accelerate from 180,000 net new jobs added permonth in 2013 to a monthly average of 200,000 in 2014. The virtuous cycle of rising condencewhich leads to greater consumer spending which leads to stronger prots and more hiring whichleads to even more spending, is expected to nally materialize in 2014.

If the consensus outlook is right, the industrial sector could challenge the record books in 2014.Under a 2% GDP growth rate environment, the industrial sector has absorbed at least 100 msf forthree straight years. Under a 3% GDP growth scenario, we estimate absorption to register around140 msf in 2014. That would place industrial demand in the top 3 levels of all time since 1990.Demand for newly built, large distribution centers that cater to e-commerce has been particularly

robust in this recovery. We estimate that ecommerce-related demand accounted for nearly 40%of all net absorption in 2013 a trend we expect to continue going forward.

U.S. Industrial Sector Analysis

Net AbsorptionSelect Markets, 2013

Net Absorption as % of InventorySelect Markets, 2013

Source: Cassidy Turley Research Source: Cassidy Turley Research

Asking RentsSelect Markets, Avg. Rent 4Q 2013

Rents(NNN)

Yr/Yr% Chg.

Long Island, NY $11.13 -0.3%

Suburban VA $8.53 1.5%

Suburban MD $7.35 2.8%

San Diego, CA $6.84 -1.7%

Northern NJ $5.84 1.9%

Los Angeles, CA $5.75 2.1%

Oakland-East Bay, CA $5.16 3 .4%

Denver, CO $5.04 1.2%

Phoenix, AZ $5.04 0.0%

Central NJ $4.87 4.1%

Minneapolis, MN $4.82 6.9%

Baltimore, MD $4.80 5.5%

Pittsburgh, PA $4.65 2.2%

Houston, TX $4.60 0.4%

Chicago, IL $4.46 0.0%Sacramento, CA $4.44 0.0%

Boston-Cambridge, MA $4.37 0.0%

Raleigh, NC $4.31 12.5%

Tampa, FL $4.22 1.0%

Kansas City, MO $4.16 2.2%

Nashville, TN $4.10 2.2%

Dallas, TX $4.01 4.2%

Saint Louis, MO $3.97 -1.0%

Charlotte, NC $3.93 0.3%

Milwaukee, WI $3.93 -1.5%

Cleveland, OH $3.86 1.0%

Columbus, OH $3.85 0.0%

Indianapolis, IN $3.71 0.8%

Louisville, KY $3.59 15.1%

Atlanta, GA $3.53 1.4%

Cincinnati, OH $2.88 -1.7%

Dayton, OH $2.60 2.8%

0

2

4

6

8

10

C h i c a g o

D a

l l a s

A t l a n

t a

C i n c

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M i l w a u

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S a n

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F r a n c

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( m s f

)

Source: Cassidy Turley Research

0.0%

0.8%

1.6%

2.4%

3.2%

S a n

M a t e o

C o u n

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b u r b a n

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Industrial SalesU.S. Industrial Sales Volume

Source: Real Capital Analytics

U.S. Industrial Cap Rates


Industrial Acquistion by Buyer Type


$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

N o v - 0

8

A p r - 0

9

S e p - 0

9

F e b - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

D e c - 1

0

M a y - 1

1

O c t - 1

1

M a r - 1

2

A u g - 1

2

J a n -

1 3

J u n -

1 3

N o v - 1

3

B i l l i o n s

Warehouse Flex

Avg. = $2.4B

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

N o v - 0

8

A p r - 0

9

S e p - 0

9

F e b - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

D e c - 1

0

M a y - 1

1

O c t - 1

1

M a r - 1

2

A u g - 1

2

J a n - 1

3

J u n - 1

3

N o v - 1

3

Warehouse Flex

$0

$20

$40

$60

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Q1-312

Q1-313

B i l l i o n s

Cross-Border Inst'l/Eq Fund Listed/REITs Private User/other

MarketVolume

(mil)Average

PSF

Los Angeles, CA $2,651.8 $98.6

Dallas, TX $2,140.5 $59.8

Chicago, IL $1,866.0 $45.3

San Jose, CA $1,833.3 $200.9

Northern NJ $1,751.0 $68.1

Inland Empire, CA $1,656.9 $72 .4

Houston, TX $1,352.0 $52.8

Orange County, CA $1,218.5 $133.5

Seattle, WA $1,057.5 $93.4

Atlanta, GA $1,031.1 $49.6

Phoenix, AZ $975.4 $80.9

Boston, MA $833.5 $74.2

Milwaukee, WI $826.3 $ 50.5

San Diego, CA $677.2 $138.2

East Bay, CA $669.7 $ 102.9

Suburban VA $636.1 $140.7

San Francisco, CA $508.2 $205. 5

Minneapolis, MN $504.7 $38.1

Saint Louis, MO $504.7 $42.8

Suburban MD $495.1 $80.1

Nashville, TN $487.8 $69.6

Indianapolis, IN $474.9 $38.0

Baltimore, MD $458.7 $ 46.7

Denver, CO $446.5 $63.9

Detroit, MI $434.1 $23.0

Charlotte, NC $361.1 $39.0

Cincinnati, OH $354.4 $37.5

Austin, TX $304.1 $78.4

Sacramento, CA $280.1 $60.3

Tampa, FL $191.9 $37.9

Kansas City, MO $175.6 $42.7

Rale igh/Durham, NC $165.2 $61 .9

Industrial SalesSelect Markets, Jan - Nov 2013



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2011 2012 2013 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Qr 2013 4Qp

United States 100,812,000 103,633,000 121,563,000 40,254,000 28,602,000 26,383,000 31,726,000 34,852,000

Northeast 8,036,000 2,067,000 11,385,000 82,000 2,720,000 2,134,000 3,773,000 2,758,000

Midwest 21,679 ,000 35,179,000 37,362,000 10,075,000 9,164,000 10,646,000 9,185,000 8,367,000

South 49,782,000 42,301,000 46,524,000 20,036,000 11,414,000 11,600,000 10,128,000 13,382,000

West 21,315 ,000 24,085,000 26,292,000 10,061,000 5,304,000 2,003,000 8,641,000 10,345,000

Albuquerque, NM -194,000 -404,000 185,000 -226,000 -276,000 22,000 256,000 183,000

Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 1,530,000 411,000 -43,000 -159,000 233,000 -216,000 -249,000 188,000

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 5,373,000 4,842,000 7,687,000 1,779,000 2,410,000 2,987,000 968,000 1,322,000

Austin-Round Rock, TX 914,000 926,000 962,000 477,000 219,000 312,000 160,000 271,000

Baltimore, MD 2,449,000 1,625,000 3,576,000 617,000 1,200,000 64,000 1,070,000 1,242,000

Birmingham-Hoover, AL 414,000 612,000 -73,000 -111,000 95,000 113,000 -243,000 -38,000

Boston-Cambridge, MA 1,352,000 1,011,000 1,775,000 310,000 441,000 630,000 785,000 -81,000

Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY -450,000 236,000 -973,000 -223,000 -62,000 -560,000 -291,000 -61,000

Charleston-North Charleston, SC 3,102,000 163,000 -470,000 308,000 -117,000 379,000 -647,000 -85,000

Charlotte, NC 2,929,000 2,100,000 2,970,000 829,000 326,000 944,000 574,000 1,126,000

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL 3,344,000 14,703,000 9,136,000 3,587,000 3,098,000 3,340,000 557,000 2,141,000

Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 175,000 2,384,000 5,024,000 497,000 1,206,000 1,203,000 1,999,000 617,000

Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 158,000 183,000 1,313,000 79,000 50,000 374,000 516,000 373,000

Colordo Springs, CO 651,000 427,000 287,000 184,000 88,000 73,000 84,000 42,000

Columbia, SC 604,000 -228,000 367,000 65,000 -246,000 320,000 150,000 142,000

Columbus, OH -592,000 2,325,000 3,405,000 219,000 -1,312,000 1,875,000 1,661,000 1,181,000

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 10,941,000 8,899,000 8,899,000 3,635,000 709,000 1,942,000 1,238,000 5,011,000

Dayton, OH 1,182,000 2,104,000 1,778,000 1,454,000 0 657,000 721,000 400,000

Denver-Aurora, CO -430,000 2,365,000 2,937,000 630,000 307,000 323,000 1,366,000 941,000

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 5,715,000 -36,000 2,729,000 740,000 1,787,000 39,000 152,000 751,000

Ft. Lauderdale, FL 5,000 982,000 1,579,000 100,000 485,000 300,000 333,000 462,000

Greensboro-Winston-Salem, NC -69,000 763,000 -982,000 487,000 37,000 37,000 -797,000 -259,000

Greenville, SC 943,000 820,000 453,000 378,000 191,000 31,000 192,000 39,000

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 48,000 68,000 -459,000 -156,000 2,000 -79,000 -302,000 -80,000

Honolulu, HI 204,000 93,000 138,000 56,000 -32,000 16,000 214,000 -61,000

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX 3,582,000 5,186,000 3,627,000 2,119,000 1,101,000 83,000 831,000 1,612,000

Indianapolis, IN 5,406,000 4,477,000 2,213,000 1,599,000 650,000 741,000 636,000 185,000

Jacksonville, FL 1,519,000 466,000 561,000 353,000 463,000 152,000 143,000 -198,000

Kansas City, MO-KS 1,693,000 2,128,000 3,098,000 120,000 1,547,000 698,000 692,000 160,000

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 700,000 -226,000 2,059,000 281,000 418,000 457,000 726,000 458,000

Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR 129,000 -561,000 51,000 -133,000 176,000 146,000 -95,000 -177,000

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 491,000 3,909,000 759,000 3,656,000 -1,131,000 -1,555,000 1,580,000 1,864,000

Louisville, KY-IN 1,709,000 802,000 1,681,000 58,000 -1,029,000 916,000 566,000 1,229,000

Memphis, TN-MS-AR 967,000 -465,000 3,877,000 1,972,000 2,017,000 739,000 1,869,000 -748,000

Miami-Dade, FL 1,826,000 2,348,000 2,040,000 1,118,000 425,000 359,000 1,040,000 216,000Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 3,129,000 3,702,000 4,816,000 513,000 746,000 1,173,000 1,293,000 1,604,000

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 421,000 2,247,000 2,502,000 578,000 1,246,000 -91,000 705,000 642,000

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN 3,665,000 6,034,000 3,444,000 3,939,000 778,000 481,000 1,673,000 512,000

New York, NY 59,000 -57,000 26,000 -9,000 -27,000 0 15,000 38,000

Long Island, NY 130,000 -412,000 614,000 -42,000 569,000 40,000 63,000 -57,000

Northern New Jersey -534,000 601,000 2,398,000 276,000 553,000 953,000 328,000 565,000

Central New Jersey 2,831,000 819,000 4,633,000 -901,000 1,349,000 780,000 1,328,000 1,176,000

Oakland-East Bay, CA 310,000 2,197,000 3,695,000 805,000 977,000 952,000 889,000 877,000

Oklahoma City, OK 1,411,000 -99,000 555,000 -148,000 137,000 -21,000 82,000 357,000

Net Absorption


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2011 2012 2013 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Qr 2013 4Qp

(Quarterly Average)

United States 9.3% 9.0% 8.4% 8.7% 8.6% 8.5% 8.4% 8.2%

Northeast 8.9% 9.0% 8.9% 9.1% 9.0% 9.0% 8.8% 8.7%

Midwest 9.4% 9.0% 8.3% 8.5% 8.4% 8.5% 8.3% 8.1%

South 11.0% 10.3% 9.4% 9.9% 9.6% 9.4% 9.4% 9.3%West 8.1% 7.7% 7.1% 7.5% 7.3% 7.2% 7.0% 6.7%

Albuquerque, NM 5.8% 6.8% 7.6% 7.2% 7.8% 7.8% 7.6% 7.3%

Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 3.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7%

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 15.0% 14.0% 12.4% 13.4% 12.7% 12.5% 12.3% 12.0%

Austin-Round Rock, TX 13.8% 11.1% 8.8% 10.4% 9.7% 8.9% 8.4% 7.9%

Baltimore, MD* 13.1% 12.3% 11.1% 11.9% 11.7% 11.6% 10.9% 10.2%

Birmingham-Hoover, AL 8.0% 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 8.1% 8.0% 8.3% 8.3%

Boston-Cambridge, MA 15.2% 14.2% 13.0% 14.0% 13.7% 13.2% 12.6% 12.7%

Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 8.1% 7.7% 9.0% 7.8% 7.9% 9.0% 9.5% 9.6%

Charleston-North Charleston, SC 14.3% 13.3% 14.4% 12.9% 13.2% 12.7% 15.6% 16.2%

Charlotte, NC 9.6% 8.5% 7.6% 8.0% 8.9% 7.5% 7.3% 6.6%Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL 11.4% 10.3% 9.2% 9.7% 9.5% 9.1% 9.2% 9.0%

Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 10.0% 9.4% 7.0% 9.1% 8.0% 7.2% 6.6% 6.4%

Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 9.6% 9.4% 9.2% 9.4% 9.4% 9.3% 9.1% 9.0%

Colordo Springs, CO 10.3% 9.8% 8.5% 9.2% 8.9% 8.6% 8.3% 8.3%

Columbia, SC 14.7% 16.0% 15.8% 16.1% 16.7% 15.9% 15.5% 15.1%

Columbus, OH 10.6% 9.6% 8.4% 9.2% 9.5% 8.8% 7.9% 7.4%

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 10.0% 8.5% 7.2% 7.7% 7.6% 7.3% 7.2% 6.6%

Dayton, OH 10.1% 13.0% 14.3% 11.4% 11.4% 15.4% 15.2% 15.1%

Denver-Aurora, CO 7.3% 7.0% 6.3% 6.4% 7.1% 6.7% 6.2% 5.3%

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 12.7% 11.9% 10.9% 11.5% 10.9% 11.0% 10.9% 10.7%

Ft. Lauderdale, FL 11.4% 10.6% 9.4% 10.2% 10.0% 9.6% 9.2% 8.8%

Greensboro-Winston-Salem, NC 9.5% 9.6% 9.5% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.7% 9.8%Greenville, SC 11.0% 10.8% 10.2% 10.5% 10.3% 10.2% 10.2% 10.2%

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 9.2% 9.7% 9.9% 9.6% 9.6% 9.7% 10.0% 10.1%

Honolulu, HI 2.8% 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8% 2.0%

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX 7.5% 6.6% 6.6% 6.2% 6.2% 6.4% 6.8% 7.0%

Indianapolis, IN 5.1% 3.9% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.8% 4.1%

Jacksonville, FL 10.6% 9.8% 8.8% 9.5% 8.9% 8.8% 8.6% 8.9%

Kansas City, MO-KS 8.3% 7.7% 7.3% 7.4% 7.4% 7.2% 7.2% 7.2%

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 12.4% 12.2% 11.0% 12.2% 11.8% 11.4% 10.7% 10.2%

Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR 7.2% 8.1% 8.1% 8.5% 8.2% 7.9% 8.1% 8.4%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 5.6% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 5.4% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5%

Louisville, KY-IN 9.1% 8.1% 6.7% 7.2% 9.0% 6.1% 5.5% 6.3%

Memphis, TN-MS-AR 14.0% 15.5% 14.0% 15.1% 14.2% 14.0% 13.5% 14.4%Miami-Dade, FL 7.4% 6.2% 5.6% 5.8% 5.9% 5.8% 5.4% 5.4%

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 7.9% 7.0% 6.6% 6.7% 7.1% 6.8% 6.5% 6.1%

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 13.7% 12.4% 10.5% 11.4% 11.1% 11.1% 10.4% 9.5%

Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN 10.1% 9.3% 8.1% 8.7% 8.3% 8.1% 8.0% 7.9%

New York, NY 4.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0%

Long Island, NY 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

Northern New Jersey 7.8% 7.7% 7.3% 7.7% 7.6% 7.5% 7.2% 7.1%

Central New Jersey 9.9% 9.0% 7.6% 8.9% 8.4% 8.2% 7.1% 6.6%

Oakland-East Bay, CA 9.6% 9.2% 7.3% 8.6% 8.1% 7.6% 7.1% 6.6%

Vacancy Rates


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Vacancy Rates2011 2012 2013 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Qr 2013 4Qp

(Quarterly Average)

Oklahoma City, OK 6.3% 5.7% 5.8% 6.0% 5.9% 5.9% 5.8% 5.5%

Omaha, NE-IA 4.7% 4.2% 4.6% 4.1% 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7%

Orlando, FL 11.1% 9.0% 7.8% 9.1% 8.2% 8.0% 7.7% 7.4%

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL 9.2% 7.3% 5.0% 6.7% 5.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.5%Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ 10.4% 10.0% 10.1% 10.0% 10.2% 10.2% 10.1% 9.8%

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 14.3% 12.7% 12.5% 12.1% 12.0% 12.5% 12.9% 12.6%

Pittsburgh, PA 8.7% 8.3% 7.7% 7.9% 7.8% 7.8% 7.7% 7.6%

Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 9.4% 8.2% 8.3% 8.1% 8.2% 8.6% 8.4% 7.9%

Raleigh-Durham, NC 11.5% 11.0% 10.5% 10.6% 10.1% 10.8% 10.2% 10.7%

Sacramento -Arden-Arcade -Roseville, CA 13.6% 13.3% 12.6% 13.2% 13.2% 12.3% 12.4% 12.4%

Saint Louis, MO-IL 8.7% 8.8% 8.2% 8.5% 8.3% 8.2% 8.1% 8.0%

Salt Lake City, UT 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 2.4% 2.0%

San Antonio, TX 9.1% 9.0% 8.7% 8.6% 8.4% 8.3% 8.1% 10.0%

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 11.6% 10.4% 8.7% 9.5% 9.2% 9.0% 8.7% 7.8%

San Francisco, CA 5.0% 5.0% 6.3% 6.6% 6.2% 6.7% 6.0% 6.4%

San Jose-Silicon Valley, CA 7.8% 7.1% 6.6% 6.8% 6.7% 6.8% 6.6% 6.3%San Mateo County, CA 9.0% 9.3% 6.2% 9.0% 7.2% 6.4% 6.0% 5.2%

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 7.5% 6.0% 5.2% 5.6% 5.2% 5.2% 5.5% 4.8%

DC-MD Suburbs 13.7% 11.8% 11.0% 10.8% 10.3% 11.3% 11.6% 10.8%

DC-VA Suburbs 11.6% 10.6% 10.0% 10.3% 10.0% 10.5% 10.2% 9.4%

Stockton, CA 11.6% 10.3% 9.3% 9.7% 9.5% 9.2% 8.8% 9.7%

Syracuse, NY 11.5% 15.1% 15.2% 16.2% 15.6% 15.3% 15.0% 15.0%

Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 8.7% 8.0% 6.4% 7.3% 6.8% 6.5% 6.3% 6.0%

Tucson, AZ 10.0% 11.5% 10.5% 11.5% 11.1% 10.8% 10.2% 9.7%

Washington, DC 18.1% 18.5% 16.8% 17.3% 15.8% 16.8% 17.4% 17.3%

Methodology and data sources explained on page 14 r = revision p = preliminary

* Balitimore, MD vacany rate only reects direct vacancy


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10 | Cassidy Turley

2011 2012 2013 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Qr 2013 4Qp

(Quarterly Average)

United States $5.09 $5.06 $5.12 $5.03 $5.06 $5.07 $5.14 $5.20

Northeast $5.82 $5.72 $5.62 $5.53 $5.56 $5.62 $5.64 $5.68

Midwest $3.81 $3.80 $3.88 $3.84 $3.90 $3.85 $3.86 $3.90

South $4.48 $4.47 $4.57 $4.49 $4.53 $4.54 $4.57 $4.66West $6.23 $6.27 $6.39 $6.25 $6.25 $6.25 $6.49 $6.55

Albuquerque, NM $6.38 $6.23 $5.70 $5.72 $5.68 $5.68 $5.80 $5.64

Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA $5.84 $5.87 $6.13 $5.87 $5.85 $5.90 $6.39 $6.40

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA $3.48 $3.45 $3.50 $3.42 $3.47 $3.49 $3.48 $3.53

Austin-Round Rock, TX $5.59 $5.63 $5.72 $5.49 $5.55 $5.67 $5.79 $5.88

Baltimore, MD $4.84 $4.76 $4.86 $4.67 $5.25 $4.84 $4.55 $4.80

Birmingham-Hoover, AL $3.13 $3.15 $3.09 $3.19 $3.22 $3.06 $3.04 $3.04

Boston-Cambridge, MA $4.24 $4.23 $4.40 $4.29 $4.38 $4.46 $4.37 $4.37

Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY $4.28 $4.02 $3.74 $3.89 $3.80 $3.67 $3.76 $3.73

Charleston-North Charleston, SC $4.03 $4.04 $4.13 $4.03 $4.11 $4.13 $4.14 $4.12

Charlotte, NC $3.62 $3.78 $3.92 $3.82 $3.84 $4.01 $3.92 $3.93Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL $4.04 $4.09 $4.40 $4.19 $4.28 $4.39 $4.46 $4.46

Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN $2.77 $2.74 $2.87 $2.74 $2.83 $2.85 $2.93 $2.88

Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH $3.81 $3.81 $3.81 $3.81 $3.78 $3.79 $3.82 $3.86

Colordo Springs, CO $6.07 $5.84 $5.73 $5.83 $5.87 $5.67 $5.73 $5.66

Columbia, SC $3.74 $3.75 $3.66 $3.71 $3.73 $3.63 $3.61 $3.65

Columbus, OH $3.16 $3.64 $3.83 $3.83 $3.77 $3.83 $3.85 $3.85

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX $3.67 $3.65 $3.83 $3.67 $3.73 $3.71 $3.85 $4.01

Dayton, OH $2.89 $2.75 $2.65 $2.92 $2.92 $2.54 $2.53 $2.60

Denver-Aurora, CO $4.60 $4.61 $4.87 $4.67 $4.66 $4.79 $4.98 $5.04

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI $4.10 $4.01 $3.99 $4.00 $4.01 $3.87 $3.96 $4.12

Ft. Lauderdale, FL $6.05 $5.85 $6.00 $5.84 $5.99 $5.96 $6.03 $6.02

Greensboro-Winston-Salem, NC $3.11 $2.99 $2.94 $2.80 $2.89 $2.97 $2.97 $2.94Greenville, SC $2.97 $2.92 $2.88 $2.89 $2.87 $2.89 $2.87 $2.90

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT $4.34 $4.26 $4.06 $4.19 $4.11 $4.14 $4.01 $3.99

Honolulu, HI $10.56 $10.71 $10.80 $10.76 $10.71 $10.71 $10.84 $10.93

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX $4.41 $4.45 $4.53 $4.53 $4.48 $4.46 $4.58 $4.60

Indianapolis, IN $3.43 $3.51 $3.68 $3.54 $3.65 $3.67 $3.68 $3.71

Jacksonville, FL $3.77 $3.83 $3.86 $3.89 $3.89 $3.89 $3.84 $3.80

Kansas City, MO-KS $3.98 $4.00 $4.13 $4.11 $4.21 $4.06 $4.07 $4.16

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV $5.68 $5.48 $5.51 $5.36 $5.39 $5.54 $5.57 $5.53

Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR $3.14 $3.12 $3.29 $3.17 $3.29 $3.28 $3.29 $3.31

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA $5.15 $5.23 $5.53 $5.27 $5.35 $5.38 $5.63 $5.75

Louisville, KY-IN $3.00 $3.00 $3.19 $3.00 $3.00 $3.05 $3.12 $3.59

Memphis, TN-MS-AR $2.52 $2.55 $2.56 $2.56 $2.62 $2.57 $2.51 $2.53Miami-Dade, FL $6.65 $7.29 $7.83 $7.60 $7.59 $7.89 $7.99 $7.85

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI $4.26 $4.03 $3.96 $3.99 $3.97 $3.93 $3.99 $3.93

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI $4.23 $4.30 $4.62 $4.36 $4.59 $4.56 $4.51 $4.82

Nashville-Davidson -Murfreesboro, TN $3.41 $4.01 $4.03 $4.11 $3.95 $4.07 $4.01 $4.10

New York, NY $13.06 $11.98 $11.23 $10.72 $10.81 $11.36 $11.36 $11.39

Long Island, NY $10.59 $10.97 $10.98 $10.62 $10.63 $11.00 $11.16 $11.13

Northern New Jersey $5.63 $5.66 $5.77 $5.72 $5.74 $5.77 $5.73 $5.84

Central New Jersey $4.46 $4.44 $4.69 $4.41 $4.63 $4.57 $4.68 $4.87

Oakland-East Bay, CA $4.57 $4.86 $5.01 $4.82 $4.86 $5.02 $4.99 $5.16

Asking Rents


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Asking Rents2011 2012 2013 2012 4Q 2013 1Q 2013 2Q 2013 3Qr 2013 4Qp

(Quarterly Average)

Oklahoma City, OK $3.43 $3.45 $3.50 $3.45 $3.25 $3.52 $3.53 $3.71

Omaha, NE-IA $4.62 $4.45 $4.60 $4.58 $4.67 $4.69 $4.55 $4.47

Orlando, FL $4.06 $3.95 $4.05 $3.99 $3.98 $4.02 $4.08 $4.14

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL $6.29 $6.28 $6.39 $6.37 $6.43 $6.39 $6.31 $6.43Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ $4.04 $4.14 $4.13 $4.13 $4.11 $4.12 $4.13 $4.15

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ $4.88 $4.90 $5.03 $4.94 $4.98 $5.04 $5.04 $5.04

Pittsburgh, PA $4.36 $4.79 $4.60 $4.67 $4.77 $4.41 $4.55 $4.65

Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA $4.27 $4.36 $4.59 $4.52 $4.67 $4.72 $4.56 $4.41

Raleigh-Durham, NC $4.27 $4.14 $3.97 $4.10 $4.02 $3.74 $3.83 $4.31

Sacramento -Arden-Arcade -Roseville, CA $4.26 $4.41 $4.38 $4.56 $4.32 $4.32 $4.44 $4.44

Saint Louis, MO-IL $4.49 $4.27 $4.03 $3.97 $4.07 $4.07 $4.01 $3.97

Salt Lake City, UT $4.13 $4.33 $4.52 $4.48 $4.47 $4.51 $4.54 $4.54

San Antonio, TX $4.01 $4.05 $4.24 $4.14 $4.12 $4.22 $4.22 $4.38

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA $7.41 $7.14 $6.99 $6.96 $7.08 $7.08 $6.96 $6.84

San Francisco, CA $9.55 $9.89 $10.58 $9.90 $9.73 $9.82 $11.24 $11.52

San Jose-Silcon Valley, CA $6.23 $6.79 $6.85 $7.01 $6.80 $6.68 $6.81 $7.12San Mateo County, CA $8.94 $8.51 $8.88 $8.28 $8.65 $8.52 $9.12 $9.24

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA $5.33 $5.51 $5.71 $5.57 $5.56 $5.70 $5.73 $5.86

DC-MD Suburbs $6.65 $6.69 $7.09 $6.70 $6.80 $7.06 $7.15 $7.35

DC-VA Suburbs $8.18 $8.31 $8.40 $8.40 $8.41 $8.26 $8.40 $8.53

Stockton, CA $3.68 $3.69 $3.67 $3.71 $3.70 $3.67 $3.66 $3.66

Syracuse, NY $3.22 $2.70 $2.65 $2.63 $2.65 $2.67 $2.62 $2.64

Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, FL $3.92 $3.95 $4.09 $3.92 $3.98 $3.97 $4.18 $4.22

Tucson, AZ $5.77 $5.44 $5.46 $5.41 $5.49 $5.24 $5.58 $5.54

Washington, DC $9.10 $7.71 $7.95 $7.80 $7.87 $7.94 $7.96 $8.02

Methodology and data sources explained on page 14 r = revision

p = preliminary


12/15

12 | Cassidy Turley

Inventory2013 4Q

Vacant Stock2013 4Q

Inventory Change2013

U/C(as of 2013 4Q)

National Total 11,121,395,000 886,035,000 58,252,000 71,068,000

Albuquerque, NM 46,747,000 3,393,000 215,000 0

Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA 70,306,000 1,932,000 210,000 0

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 351,091,000 42,002,000 2,927,000 0

Austin-Round Rock, TX 33,893,000 2,694,000 160,000 417,000

Baltimore, MD 162,974,000 16,558,000 1,094,000 438,000

Birmingham-Hoover, AL 95,394,000 7,931,000 15,000 0

Boston-Cambridge, MA 116,944,000 14,852,000 305,000 420,000

Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 57,473,000 5,500,000 50,000 12,000

Charleston-North Charleston, SC 34,680,000 5,619,000 372,000 87,000

Charlotte, NC 153,267,000 10,116,000 190,000 258,000

Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL 817,580,000 73,988,000 4,653,000 3,178,000

Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 274,121,000 17,407,000 775,000 2,200,000

Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH 323,514,000 29,209,000 36,000 205,000

Colordo Springs, CO 28,523,000 2,360,000 26,000 167,000

Columbia, SC 37,484,000 5,663,000 0 39,000

Columbus, OH 234,953,000 17,387,000 766,000 1,144,000

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 489,920,000 32,363,000 3,885,000 8,436,000

Dayton, OH 106,532,000 16,118,000 1,367,000 2,440,000

Denver-Aurora, CO 243,443,000 12,902,000 1,031,000 2,182,000

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 298,946,000 31,900,000 250,000 52,000

Ft. Lauderdale, FL 82,474,000 7,261,000 474,000 721,000

Greensboro-Winston-Salem, NC 198,371,000 19,498,000 0 302,000

Greenville, SC 75,315,000 7,680,000 225,000 470,000

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 94,937,000 9,621,000 26,000 96,000

Honolulu, HI 37,011,000 743,000 15,000 160,000

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land, TX 311,992,000 21,727,000 6,469,000 6,269,000

Indianapolis, IN 243,058,000 9,965,000 60,000 600,000

Jacksonville, FL 79,922,000 7,083,000 92,000 0

Kansas City, MO-KS 195,764,000 14,036,000 2,854,000 5,940,000

Las Vegas-Paradise, NV 98,929,000 10,122,000 161,000 372,000

Little Rock-N. Little Rock, AR 51,085,000 4,304,000 0 0

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA 815,930,000 44,783,000 2,537,000 1,512,000

Louisville, KY-IN 109,251,000 6,916,000 2,467,000 1,392,000

Memphis, TN-MS-AR 146,839,000 21,121,000 3,342,000 1,211,000

Miami-Dade, FL 162,050,000 8,824,000 1,584,000 1,504,000

Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI 268,254,000 16,363,000 1,160,000 3,384,000

Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI 104,741,000 9,950,000 888,000 1,034,000

Nashville-Davidson -Murfreesboro, TN 195,215,000 15,500,000 2,121,000 838,000

New York, NY 15,321,000 619,000 0 38,000

Long Island, NY 300,862,000 13,655,000 0 28,000

Northern New Jersey 403,878,000 28,675,000 320,000 1,614,000

Central New Jersey 242,510,000 16,006,000 750,000 2,158,000

Oakland-East Bay, CA 196,531,000 12,971,000 0 2,222,000

Oklahoma City, OK 83,350,000 4,552,000 129,000 525,000

Omaha, NE-IA 50,357,000 2,351,000 238,000 90,000

Orlando, FL 88,629,000 6,548,000 95,000 1,394,000

West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, FL 32,238,000 1,438,000 86,000 650,000

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ 297,762,000 29,088,000 1,314,000 260,000

Inventory


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InventoryInventory2013 4Q

Vacant Stock2013 4Q

Inventory Change2013

U/C(as of 2013 4Q)

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ 292,062,000 36,936,000 5,749,000 4,654,000

Pittsburgh, PA 213,101,000 16,158,000 158,000 683,000

Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA 152,394,000 12,068,000 585,000 898,000

Raleigh-Durham, NC 45,120,000 4,828,000 100,000 100,000

Sacramento -Arden-Arcade -Roseville, CA 135,742,000 16,832,000 131,000 0

Saint Louis, MO-IL 234,447,000 18,756,000 80,000 1,732,000

Salt Lake City, UT 110,175,000 2,161,000 485,000 316,000

San Antonio, TX 63,517,000 6,378,000 1,409,000 1,417,000

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 164,555,000 12,936,000 37,000 156,000

San Francisco, CA 20,433,000 1,308,000 0 0

San Jose-Silicon Valley, CA 83,234,000 5,210,000 0 575,000

San Mateo County, CA 39,820,000 2,071,000 0 0

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 183,474,000 8,764,000 1,167,000 2,618,000

DC-MD Suburbs 50,543,000 5,459,000 0 0

DC-VA Suburbs 37,844,000 3,557,000 468,000 0

Stockton, CA 142,845,000 13,848,000 2,056,000 1,434,000

Syracuse, NY 45,745,000 6,850,000 54,000 27,000

Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 111,308,000 6,705,000 36,000 0

Tucson, AZ 27,536,000 2,680,000 0 0

Washington, DC 7,139,000 1,235,000 0 0

Methodology and data sources explained on page 14

Under construction and inventory change gures are derived from Cassidy Turleys proprietarysample and taken directly f rom CoStars database for certain markets.


14/15

14 | Cassidy Turley

MethodologyMethodologyCassidy Turleys quarterly estimates are derived from a variety of data sources, includingits own proprietary sample of market activity, the Bureau of Labor Statistics employmentdata, historical inventory data from Reis, LLC, CoStar and other third party data sources.The market statistics are calculated from a base building inventory made up of industrialproperties deemed to be competitive in the local industrial markets. Generally, federally-owned buildings are not included. Single-tenant warehouse and ex structures in whichthe federal government leases space are included. Older buildings unt for occupancy orones that require substantial renovation before tenancy are generally not included in thecompetitive inventory. The inventory is subject to revisions due to resampling. Vacant spaceis dened as space that is available immediately. The gures provided for the current quarterare preliminary estimates, and all information contained in the report is subject to correctionof errors and revisions based on additional data received.

Explanation of TermsTotal Inventory: The total amount of industrial space (in buildings greater than 10,000square feet), which includes all existing multi or single tenant leased and owner-occupiedindustrial, ex, and R&D properties. Certain markets include warehouse and ex space in

the nal numbers, while others include only warehouse space. This is determined by what ismarket standard in each region.

Vacancy Rate: The amount of unoccupied space (new, relet, and sublet) expressed as apercentage of total inventory, unless footnoted otherwise.

Absorption: The net change in occupied space between two points in time. (Totaloccupied space in the present quarter minus total occupied space in the previousquarter, quoted on a net, not gross, basis).

Asking Rents: Average asking rents (NNN) For most markets, the asking rent representsan average of warehouse/distribution properties, unless footnoted otherwise.

Under Construction: Counts all structures (greater than 10,000 square feet) that havebroken ground by the last day of the current quarter but have not yet been completed.

New Supply: Represent all completed structures (greater than 10,000 square feet) thatdelivered to the market.

Disclaimer

Regional Map

West

Midwest

South

Northeast

This report and other research materials maybe found on our website at www.cassidyturley.com. This is a research document of CassidyTurley in Washington, DC. Questions relatedto information herein should be directedto the Research Department at 202-463-2100. Information contained herein hasbeen obtained from sources deemed reliableand no representation is made as to theaccuracy thereof. Cassidy Turley is a leadingcommercial real estate services provider, with400 million square feet managed on behalfof institutional, private and corporate clients

and $22 billion in completed transactionsfor 2012.


15/15

cassidyturley.com

KeyStatistics

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More than 3,800 associates

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2012 transactions

Gross transaction volume$22 billion

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400 million sf managedportfolio

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*Through GVA Partnership

A Leader in Commercial Real Estate ServicesAt Cassidy Turley, we are market leaders, industry leaders and community leaders.Nationwide, clients recognize us for the creative sophistication of our real estate adviceas well as for the discipline and accuracy of our service delivery. We are a trusted partnerand advocate, supporting our clients overall business performance. In markets across thecountry, we are respected as a leading provider of commercial real estate services as wellas for our community engagement. Our thorough understanding of local business practicesand market dynamics, combined with our customer focus and service commitment, give ourclients a distinct edge in commercial real estate across the globe.

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understanding of local business leaders and practices, giving Cassidy Turley and ourclients an edge.

Our in-depth, local market knowledge provides a comprehensive understanding ofmarket dynamics and enables us to effectively forecast market trends providinginsight to clients and helping them make informed real estate decisions.

Our leadership position is recognized in the communities we serve. We are often ratedin local business journals as a Best Place to Work, and are honored for our manylocal philanthropic efforts.

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Over 80% of real estate executives familiar with our brand ranked it Very Good orExcellent Wall Street Journal survey

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World-Class Expertise Many of our associates have honed their skills in their respective markets for years

even decades gaining an understanding of industry best practices and serving asthought leaders.

Cassidy Turley has served clients needs outside of the United States since 1985. Inorder to better serve our clients in Europe and Asia-Pacic, Cassidy Turley is proud topartner with GVA, the founder and majority shareholder of GVA Worldwide, which serveskey markets in over 25 countries.

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