Casting a Long ShadowDemand-Based Accounting of
Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Brett Dolter & Peter Victor
“It is a frightening thought that man also has a shadow side to him” Carl Jung
“It is a frightening thought that man also has a shadow side” Carl Jung
“It is a frightening thought that man each product also has a shadow side to him it” Carl Jung
“It is a frightening thought that man each product also has a shadow side” Carl Jung
Shadow Emissions
Shadow Emissions
Ecological Footprint
Production-Based GHG Emissions
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Production GHGs
Gree
nhou
se G
as E
mis
sion
s (M
t CO
2e)
Includes GHG emissions generated in order to produce exports
Excludes GHG emissions generated in order to produce imports
What is Canada’s GHG Shadow?
Linear Algebra
Carl Friedrich Gauss, 1777 - 1855
Leontief Analysis
Wassily Leontief, 1906 - 1999
f = Final demand for goods and services within an area of interest
x = Total output required to produce final demand vector of goods and services
Ecological Economics Extension
Shadow Emissions
xi = output of industry i produced in order to supply Canadian final demand f
gi = greenhouse gas emissions intensity of industry i
Multi-Region Input-Output (MRIO)
WIOD Trade Matrices 1995 - 2009
Countries Included in the WIODAustria AUT Poland POLBelgium BEL Portugal PRTBulgaria BGR Romania ROMCyprus CYP Slovak Republic SVKCzech Republic CZE Slovenia SVNGermany DEU Sweden SWEDenmark DNK Australia AUSSpain ESP Brazil BRAEstonia EST Canada CANFinland FIN China CHNFrance FRA Indonesia IDNUnited Kingdom GBR India INDGreece GRC Japan JPNHungary HUN Korea KORIreland IRL Mexico MEXItaly ITA Rest of World RoWLithuania LTU Russia RUSLuxembourg LUX Turkey TURLatvia LVA Taiwan TWNMalta MLT United States USANetherlands NLD
Canadian GHG Shadow
Canada’s GHG Emissions
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
GHG Shadow Production GHGs
Gree
nhou
se G
as E
mis
sion
s (M
t CO
2e)
Contributors to GHG Shadow
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
CAN USA CHN ROW EU-27 IND RUS MEXBRA KOR JPN AUS TWN IDN TUR
Gree
nhou
se G
as E
mis
sion
s (M
t CO
2e)
GHG Emissions Released Abroad
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
USA CHN ROW EU-27 IND RUS MEXBRA KOR JPN AUS TWN IDN TUR
Gree
nhou
se G
as E
mis
sion
s (M
t Co2
e)
Provincial Story?
Allocating Canada’s GHG Shadow Across Provinces and Territories
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
NL PEI NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC YT NWT NVT
GHG
Emiss
ions
(Mt C
O2e
)
Per Capita Provincial Shadows
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
NLPEINSNBPQONMBSKABBCYTNWT & NVT
GHG
Shad
ow p
er ca
pita
(ton
nes C
O2e
/per
son)
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000Newfoundland 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
5001000150020002500300035004000
Prince Edward Island
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000Nova Scotia 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000New Brunswick 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
20000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000
Quebec 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000Ontario 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000Manitoba 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
1000020000300004000050000600007000080000
Saskatchewan 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000Alberta 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000New Brunswick 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
20000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000
Quebec 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000Ontario 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000Manitoba 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
1000020000300004000050000600007000080000
Saskatchewan 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000Alberta 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000
100000British Columbia 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
200400600800
100012001400
Yukon 1997-2009
19971999
20012003
20052007
20090
5001000150020002500300035004000
NWT & Nunavut 1997-2009
“It is a frightening thought that man each product also has a shadow side to him it” Carl Jung
“It is a frightening thought that man each product also has a shadow side” Carl Jung
“It is a frightening thought that man each province product also has a shadow side” Carl Jung Brett Dolter
Can Provinces Co-operate?“Ontario indicated it's willingness to move to stringent California-style emissions standards, but only if Alberta agreed on firm caps on industrial emissions.
The idea is anathema to Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach, who says any limits on that province's booming oil and gas industry would cost jobs and hurt the rest of the country.
Despite pressure from his colleagues, McGuinty would not commit to automobile standards -- a move that could harm Ontario’s own powerful industry -- without movement from Alberta on caps.” (2007)
Can Canada Co-operate?“I don’t think we should consider signing on to a deal that makes us virtually the sole country in the world that is going to take any action.”
Can Canada Co-operate?“I don’t think we should consider signing on to a deal that makes us virtually the sole country in the world that is going to take any action.”
Canada’s GHG Emissions
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
GHG Shadow Production GHGs
Gree
nhou
se G
as E
mis
sion
s (M
t CO
2e)
Questions?
Canadian GHG Emissions
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
GHG Shadow Production GHGs DTA GHG Shadow
Gree
nhou
se G
as E
miss
ions
(Mt C
O2e
)
Provincial GHG Shadows
NL PEI NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC YK NWT NVT0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Production Shadow (CTA) Shadow (Provincial Electricity)
GHG
Emis
sion
s (M
t CO
2e)