Catalyzing Pathways to DecarbonizationCan small-scale initiatives lead to broad transformation?

Matthew HoffmannUniversity of Toronto

We need Pathways to Decarbonization

Small-Scale Initiatives are what we have to work with (one kind of thing)

Carbon Lock-In as Fractal Phenomenon Both Global System and Individual Systems are in a state of carbon lock-in (Unruh 2000)

Through what pathways, mechanisms, and politics can the lock-in be disrupted in both individual systems and the global system?

Linking what we need and what we have to work with

Small-Scale Experimental

InitiativesBroader

Transformation

Theorizing the “Miracle”

Small-Scale Initiatives

Scaling Up and Out

Local and Global

Transformation

Conceptualizing Scaling Simple Self-Organized Modular Isomorphic

System State

Intervention/Initiative

NormalizationCapacity BuildingCoalition Building

Scaling

Transformation Pathway

Conditions for Scaling AND Transformation

Normalization Altering the Common Sense of a system

Capacity Building Skills, tools, institutions, knowledge to act

Coalition Building Political Support for action

System State

Intervention/Initiative

NormalizationCapacity BuildingCoalition Building

Scaling

Transformation Pathway

Scaling AND Transformation through normalization, capacity building, and coalitions

Internal Cycle External Cycle Copenhagen’s Municipal

Plan Scaling out

Copenhagen’s experience

Decarbonization in Denmark and in other cities internationally

Copenhagen’s Municipal Plan

Scaling up ambitions and action in Copenhagen

Decarbonization in Copenhagen

System State

Intervention/Initiative

NormalizationCapacity BuildingCoalition Building

Scaling

Transformation Pathway

Can/Will this work?

Cases C40 Electric Vehicle Network The Climate Group: Smart

Cities Carbon Trust

Learning Lessons Unintended Consequences Resources Counter Coalitions Adaptation of Vision/Mission

Finding/Fostering Conditions of Disruption and Transformation

We have this thing called the “cheerful disclaimer” – which means we have no idea if the idea is going to work or not. It’s an invitation to have a go.

Rob Hopkins, founder of Transition Towns

System State

Intervention/Initiative

NormalizationCapacity BuildingCoalition Building

Scaling

Transformation Pathway

Moving Forward? Is this the best way to Decarbonization?