Causes of Haze Assessment (COHA) update

Mark Green, DRIAttribution of Haze Workgroup/

Modeling Forum Joint Meeting San Diego, Nov. 2-3, 2006

Presentation outline

• What have we accomplished to date?

• What are we working on and expect to finish with existing funds?

• What will we do if there is additional funding and at what cost?

Accomplishments to date

• Descriptive map gallery – terrain, nearby & regional emissions, nearby met & AQ monitoring sites, nearby urban areas, landuse, landsat photos

• Meteorological descriptions – description of terrain effects on flows, nearby urban areas, representativeness assessment, summary of wind/climate data, potential for inversions

• Aerosol summaries – avg bext by component all days, 20% best, 20% worst, middle 60% etc. + narrative summary

Accomplishments to date

• Backtrajectory analysis – Calculated backtrajectories for all sites for 2000-2002, every 3 hours, 10, 500, 1500 m starting heights

• Added 2003 and 2004 at 500 m starting ht.• Residence maps for all days, by month, 20%

best and 20% worst days, and 20% worst component days; difference maps, conditional probability maps 2000-2002 on COHA website (>5000 maps)

• Trajectory data for 2000-2004 supplied to ARS for TSS tool

Trend analysis and Receptor modeling

• 8 and/or 16 year trend analysis for sites with sufficient data

• Trajectory regression analysis- apportionment of SO4 and bext at each site to states and regions

• PMF modeling – Identification of “source” factors and their attribution to PM2.5 mass for each site group

Trend analysis 20% worst days and 20% highest S extinction

20% worst bext20% worst sulfate

PMF Output• Source profiles

Example PMF analysis result summary

California Coast

Sulfate-rich

Secondary/Oil

Combustion

17%

Road Dust8%

Nitrate-rich Secondary

14%

Smoke/Mobile29%

Aged Sea Salt32%

Also get daily importance of each factor

Example trajectory regression sulfate attribution (%)

Other COHA related activities

• Causes of Dust – detailed analysis of days with dust most important factor

• Tribal Analysis – assessment of causes of haze at tribal areas and representativeness assessment for tribal areas without monitors

• Detailed analysis of smoke episodes• COHA contract flexible – allows additional

products as the need arises• 14 conference presentations/papers (AWMA,

AAAR, AGU); 1 published journal article, 1 in review

• Presentations at numerous WRAP meetings

COHA current projects

• Assessment of 2002 representativeness for worst case days 2000-2004 (use backtrajectory RTdifference maps of 2002-5 year average; also compare 2002 aerosol concentration and composition to 5 year average

• Make website more user friendly – all analysis products for a site available from that site’s “front” page

• Evaluation of EDAS winds against monitored upper air data (MM5 also if resources allow)

• Provide PMF weighted backtrajectory data to TSS• QA of website- complete and correct maps

BRCA 2000-2002 residence time

2002 representativeness at BRCA

DESERT ROCK: Annual 2002 frequency % of wind direction (500m agl)

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%N

NNE

NE

ENE

E

ESE

SE

SSE

S

SSW

SW

WSW

W

WNW

NW

NNW

EDAS Upper Air

Evaluation of EDAS winds used in backtrajectory analysis

DESERT ROCK: Annual 2002 frequency % of wind direction (1500m agl)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%N

NNE

NE

ENE

E

ESE

SE

SSE

S

SSW

SW

WSW

W

WNW

NW

NNW

EDAS Upper Air

DESERT ROCK: Annual 2002 frequency % of wind direction (3000m agl)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%N

NNE

NE

ENE

E

ESE

SE

SSE

S

SSW

SW

WSW

W

WNW

NW

NNW

EDAS Upper Air

BOISE: Annual 2002 frequency % of wind direction (500m agl)

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%N

NNE

NE

ENE

E

ESE

SE

SSE

S

SSW

SW

WSW

W

WNW

NW

NNW

EDAS Upper Air

BOISE: Annual 2002 frequency % of wind direction (1500m agl)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

N

NNE

NE

ENE

E

ESE

SE

SSE

S

SSW

SW

WSW

W

WNW

NW

NNW

EDAS Upper Air

BOISE: Annual 2002 frequency % of wind direction (3000m agl)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

N

NNE

NE

ENE

E

ESE

SE

SSE

S

SSW

SW

WSW

W

WNW

NW

NNW

EDAS Upper Air

Possible future activities

• Maintain COHA website• Provide data/results for TSS• Determining representative sites (if any) for any

IMPROVE sites shut-down• Interpretation of PMF weighted backtrajectories• Provide additional analyses/interpretation as

needed for SIPs (including during EPA review)• Help prepare for first 5-year review of progress