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OVERVIEW

Ryerson University urban planning graduate students created four potential scenarios exploring how autonomous vehicles might unfold in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA).

Last year, seven graduate students from Ryerson’s School of Urban and Regional Planning were tasked with creating four potential scenarios detailing how autonomous vehicles might unfold in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA).

In December, at an event hosted by Ryerson City Building Institute called “Ryerson Students set a 'Course' for Autonomous Vehicles”, the researchers presented their driverless futures to a sold-out audience of planners and policy-makers and a panel of transportation experts, including Ryan Lanyon from the City of Toronto, Grush Niles, and Lisa Orchard from Metrolinx.

The audience and the panel were split on which future was most likely. What do you think?

SCENARIO ONE: THE PHANTOM AV

Incremental advances in unregulated technology lead to a dangerous mix on the roadway. While there are some private benefits, there are many societal consequences.

Presence of Level 2 & Level 3 AVs on Market

It is 2017, and level 2 automated vehicles with adaptive cruise control and lane assist are available to purchase. Such cars sense the lines on either side of the vehicle and keep the driver safely between them. They also slow down if the car senses something on the road ahead, and come to a complete stop in traffic.

CBI POLICY PAPERAutonomous vehicles in the GTHAVincent Racine

March 02, 2017

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Over the next few years, level 3 autonomous vehicles will be released by Tesla, Google, and other companies with much fanfare but without any mass production due to their premium prices. These vehicles drive themselves in certain situations, such as on highways, but require their owners to intervene when necessary.

For the general public, lower-level assistive technology becomes available in newer vehicles. Car manufacturers advertise the safety benefits of their vehicle’s “Smart Sense,” and add several sensors to help prevent collisions. Cars can now connect drivers to the internet using LTE cellular technology and communicate with other cars using DSRC technology. Information about speed, braking, and steering wheel position is shared with other cars, building a detailed picture of what is happening on the roadway to allow for smart routing and smoother traffic flows.

Negative Perception of Automation

These technological add-ons are pricey. While early adopters are quick to get on board automated vehicles, the majority of drivers are slow to see its value. Many of the sensors do not work in snow, heavy rain, or on roadways with faint markings. And while having in-car wifi is appreciated, it requires a monthly subscription. Due to slow adoption, the benefits of cars being connected to one another does not materialize. Better traffic data is available through smartphones, and many people are concerned about privacy since cars are broadcasting data about driving habits.

Collisions due to Semi-Autonomous Vehicles

It is now 2020, and luxury level 3 AVs are becoming more available. However, while the technology has been exhaustively tested under different conditions, the way humans and machines interact is still not perfect. There is now a very real possibility that drivers will mis-use the technology, such as bullying

autonomous cars or driving them while distracted. Although police are intensifying their campaign against distracted driving, it has little effect. Many of the collisions are fender-benders, caused by AVs’ propensity to unexpectedly stop in situations where driver intervention is necessary.

The first death by AV occurs and different citizen groups march to City Hall, demanding limits on these “Killing Machines” and harsher punishments for distracted drivers. In response, car manufacturers add “Drive Alert” safety features. These initially start off as dashboard icons that randomly light up while the vehicle is in automation mode, and require drivers to address them within a specified timespan before the car slows to a safe stop. But the driver alert exercises slowly become increasingly complex, as manufacturers try to stay ahead of Youtube videos showing viewers how to outsmart them.

Regulations on Partial Automation

It is 2025, and level 3 vehicles are available to the general public at an added cost of $10,000. The provincial government mandates that level 3 AVs may only be used in automated mode on controlled access highways and on regional roads where indicated. Municipalities pass by-laws controlling which streets will and won’t accommodate AVs. Generally, automated mode is permitted on regional roads outside towns, but must be turned off when the speed limit drops in built-up areas. In order to enforce this regulation, the government requires AVs to have an exterior indicator light showing when automation mode has been switched on. Toronto also begins promoting “Stay Alert” zones around schools and other areas with frequent pedestrians.

Obstacles to Higher Levels of Automation

Level 4 vehicle prototypes are being released in some well-mapped U.S. cities. These vehicles can purportedly handle almost all types of driving. Still, manufacturers face technical barriers to removing the driver completely, as machine learning is not advanced enough to cope with the ever-changing

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urban street environment. Although an increasing number of studies document the benefits of AV technology, collisions involving AVs inflame public opinion on the matter.

Rise of Shared Mobility

Against this backdrop, shared, on-demand mobility continues to grow. A new Uber spin-off called “Friend” is specifically marketed as non-automated and has a catchy slogan: “Our cars are driven by people, and by people alone.” The growth in shared mobility has considerable environmental and congestion benefits as young people increasingly decide they don’t need to buy cars, and seniors find they can give up their cars and still maintain their independent mobility. Less car ownership means transit ridership increases with shared mobility filling in last-mile network gaps. Mobility is considerably different than 20 years ago, even without full automation.

SCENARIO TWO: INDUSTRY STRIKES BACK

While autonomous vehicles are unaffordable for the average person, they are attractive for businesses and the wealthy. Also, shared mobility services take off.

Presence and Rise of Level 5 & Automated Recreational Vehicles (RV)

The year is 2025, and rapid innovation and heavy investment from the automotive and technology sectors means that entirely driverless vehicles (Level 5s) are achieved but at extraordinary prices. Private AV ownership is strictly in the realm of luxury car purchasers. Audi, Mercedes, and BMW all have models around the $90,000. Many U.S. states quickly legalize safety-certified AVs without requiring a licensed driver, and Ontario follows suit. With these new regulations, the RV sector sees an opportunity for self-driving luxury RVs. Marketing AV RVs as “The Home of the Future,” owners can program their RVs to take them anywhere while they sleep, cook dinner, take pictures of the countryside, or play boardgames with their families.

Automated Trucking

In Ontario, many highways now have a reserved lane for automated trucks. Marked off by traffic pylons, the designated lane is part of a long-haul, automated trucking pilot project by the Ontario government. The trucks are supervised remotely, with several staff people on the ground, accompanying the convoy in case of any issues. Over time, the program is expanded to off-peak daytime hours, although freight rail companies begin to grumble about this preferential treatment.

Impact on Transit Employment

Transit workers have been protesting on a regular basis in front of Queen’s Park and City Hall, but their jobs are a lot more secure than those of the truck and taxi drivers who are not strongly unionized.

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The government has put in place generous skills retraining and early retirement programs.

Integration of Mobility

All mobility options are put on a single platform, which makes shared mobility more enticing for residents. Public transit, including shared autonomous vehicles, is now cheaper because there is no need to pay for parking, maintenance, insurance, licensing fees, and other costs. In addition to having mobility options on one platform, fares are integrated and the cost of on-demand Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAV) is subsidized by Metrolinx. SAVs and public transit is now well-used and the need for parking has been substantially reduced. Hence, Metrolinx announces plans to turn some surface parking lots into mixed use developments and parks. In the downtown core, some of the on-street parking has been replaced with curbside pickup/drop off zones. Over time, SAVs reach the regional outskirts of Toronto.

SCENARIO THREE: RETURN OF PARTIAL AUTOMATION

People’s fears about giving up control lead to low popularity of full automation.

Regulation on Automation

It is 2017 and the provincial government has been proactive in regulating autonomous vehicle technologies. While car manufacturers were announcing the release dates of their semi-autonomous automobiles with much fanfare, Ontario--along with many other jurisdictions--followed the National Association of City Transportation Officials’ recommendation and restricted the use of AVs incapable of full automation on city streets. Level 3 AVs, for example, can only be used on controlled access freeways and provincial highways.

Expensive Level 5

It is now 2025, and level 5 automated vehicles are available for purchase. However, they are very expensive because of the enhanced technology required to navigate in challenging conditions, such as snow. These are luxury goods and marketed as such. The vehicle’s design encompasses spacious seating and an iPad-like device to enter your destination coordinates. In an effort to popularize the technology, car manufacturers crisscross the country with their AVs, doing test rides, and heavily advertising.

Suspicion over Technology

In general, urban residents become cautious as autonomous vehicles become a popular target on talk shows. More expert panels are organized to discuss the ethical dilemmas of the technology and “the code to crash.” Residents begin to wonder if the AV places more importance on protecting the life of the driver or bystanders in emergency situations.

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Technology Hacking

One or two carjackings take place. In one instance, a female AV passenger is on her way to work when the controls no longer work. The onscreen map is replaced by a creepy raven image, and the car exits the highway on its own. Although she tries calling for help on her cell phone, it is of no use since it’s connected to the vehicle’s wifi and has been blocked. An onscreen message appears: provide your bank account information to be released. She does, and is released from the AV, but is traumatized by the experience. Car companies scramble to release patches and explain how their cars’ enhanced security features make them completely unhackable.

Return of Partial Automation

Car dealerships that sell autonomous vehicles are targeted by protesters shouting “Take back control!” Due to the unpopularity of full automation, Mark Fields, the CEO of Ford, publicly announces the reintroduction of the driver’s seat and steering wheel. This automation-by-choice version is more popular than full automation alone. While still expensive--there’s a price premium of only a few thousand dollars for this option--drivers appreciate being able to choose between full and partial automation. These vehicles also offer consumers another choice: to be or not to be connected. Automation is achieved entirely through cameras and LiDAR, without broadcasting or receiving any information from other vehicles. Less connectivity reduces the risk of attack, and the vehicles’ encryption and firewalls make hacking even more difficult.

Positive Attitude Towards Technology

With this increased level of personal choice and control, attitudes begin to shift. As people gain more experience with partial automation, they become more open to full automation, and shared AVs make a comeback in the marketplace.

SCENARIO FOUR: ATTACK OF THE AVS

The government closely regulates autonomous vehicles given that they have become incredibly affordable and everyone wants one.

Presence of Full Automation

It is 2025, and the past nine years have seen rapid innovation in AV technology. Fully self driving cars are available, safe, affordable, and able to navigate in complex conditions. Governments have moved equally fast to regulate these vehicles. In Ontario, a safety-certified AV can be ridden without a licensed driver, clear federal standards govern the collection and use of data, and manufacturers provide regular security updates to their vehicles to guard against cyberattacks.

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Private Ownership and Impact on Land Use

Increasing numbers of residents start purchasing AVs and this decreases public transit ridership. Residents no longer pay for parking since they can send their AV home, or download a “Park for Free” app and order the car to find the closest available parking spot and await further instructions. Many residents start thinking about living further from work given the convenience and affordability of AVs.

Presence of Shared Mobility

In downtown, two-person SAVs are becoming quite popular. They have completely replaced human-driven taxis and the fares are more reasonable. On-street parking close to transit stations has been replaced with SAV pick-up and drop-off zones, and they are especially popular with people who do not own cars and prefer AVs to public transit. Still, at this point, privately-owned AVs represent the majority of total AVs. In the suburbs, there are even fewer SAVs, but they are already having an impact on transit ridership. Although municipalities want to ensure that everyone has transit access, they are beginning to wonder if they can continue offering transit service when easily accessible SAVs are taking over the market.

Empty Vehicles and Online Purchasing

Empty AVs seen driving around more often on roadways. SAVs circle while they wait for passengers, and people send their personal AVs back home or to find free parking while they work or run errands. More stores begin offering AV-enabled purchases, where customers place orders and send an AV to collect their goods.

Congestion and Regulation

With all these extra trips added on top of a growing population, the roads are crowded. Yet, because traffic is still mixed, AVs still have to keep their distance from human drivers. As a result, the potential benefits of platooning AVs are not achieved. The government begins to come under pressure to create AV-only lanes to allow for more effective platooning and efficient travel.

However, the government comes out against such lanes because they encourage more private, and empty AV use. The government proactively tries two approaches to reduce congestion:

1. Cordon Pricing: There is a fee to enter the downtown core and cars are charged electronically when entering the area through a license detection system. This substantially increases the cost of commuting downtown by AV and residents stop sending their cars home during the day. However, the pricing scheme has no effect on empty vehicles circling within the zone or travelling in municipalities outside of Toronto.

2. Empty Vehicle Charge: Vehicles are charged per kilometer of use when empty to combat passenger-less car rides. While the charge is applied to both private and shared AVs to prevent excessive circling, there is little impact on congestion because AVs usually have passengers.

Rise of Shared Mobility

These policies make AV travel more expensive. As a result, privately-owned AV users start using transit more often to save money. With this new pricing system in place, new users gravitate towards shared mobility and the number of SAVs on the road surges. The future looks like collective benefits will take priority over private convenience.

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For the full report, visit TransForm Lab.

Vincent Racine is a graduate student in urban and regional planning at Ryerson University. He is a Research Assistant at Ryerson City Building Institute.

The graduate students who contributed to the report include: Christina Borowiec, Kailey Laidlaw, Sean Nash, Vincent Racine, Oliver Rojas, Sean Turkenicz, and Yvonne Verlinden