Date post: | 09-May-2015 |
Category: |
Real Estate |
Upload: | chris-fyvie |
View: | 2,384 times |
Download: | 4 times |
1
CBRE Global Research and Consulting
© 2014, CBRE Limited, Real Estate Brokerage
Toronto Office
MarketView Q4 2013
VACANCY
9.4%
COMPLETIONS
903,699 SF
NET RENT
$17.85 PSF
NET ABSORPTION
-195,090 SF
TENANT ACTIVITY SHIFTING, NOT SLOWING
Quick stats
*The arrows are trend indicators over the specified time
period and do not represent a positive or negative
value. (e.g., absorption could be negative, but still
represent a positive trend over a specific period.)
Hot Topics
Vacancy rose by 70 basis points
quarter-over-quarter and 110
basis points year-over-year to
9.4% in Q4 2013.
Rising vacancy signifies a shift in
tenant activity, with demand
varying by lease type, tenant size,
market, and asset class.
Vacancy is expected to continue
rising in the coming quarters,
due both to new vacancies in
existing stock and to new
construction.
Absorption in the Greater Toronto Area
(GTA) was negative for the third
consecutive quarter, posting 195,090
sq. ft. of negative absorption in Q4
2013. Consequently, the GTA ended
the year at negative 322,426 sq. ft. of
net absorption. This is the first time
since 2003 that net annual absorption
was negative.
Given the amount of negative
absorption, it is no surprise that
vacancy continues to rise, up by 70
basis points quarter-over-quarter
(QoQ) and 110 basis points year-over-
year (YoY) to 9.4% in Q4 2013.
Vacancy increased and absorption was
negative across all GTA markets.
The rising vacancy rate does not
necessarily signify an across-the-board
decline in tenant demand. It merely
signifies a shift in tenant activity, with
demand varying by lease type, tenant
size, market, and asset class.
First, while direct deals are on the
decline, the GTA remains rife with
renewal activity. In many markets,
vacancy may be high, but it consists of
fragmented or lower-quality spaces.
Consequently, large tenants are unable
to find suitable large blocks of space
for relocation and opt to renew their
existing premises instead. In other
markets, relocation costs are
prohibitively high, leading tenants to
make renewal decisions instead of
relocating.
Second, leasing activity differs by
tenant size. While many large tenants,
particularly those in the Central
market, have completed their deals in
recent quarters, smaller tenants
continue to drive leasing demand
throughout the city. This is primarily
due to the expiry profile of large
tenants and the fact that many large
tenants’ expiries tend to cluster in
cycles. Conversely, smaller tenants’
expiries tend to be more randomly
distributed, thus providing a more
constant source of leasing velocity.
Third, tenant activity differs by market,
with the Toronto West leading the GTA
in terms of the number and size of new
direct deals in the Q4 2013. Demand
continues being strong in the West and
the rising vacancy can be largely
attributed to new construction and
tenant densification. Conversely, new
deal activity is slower in markets such
as Toronto North and Midtown.
Finally, activity differs by asset class.
For example, while activity is slowing in
Financial Core Class A space, it is
nonetheless strong in Downtown West
Renovated and Converted (RC) space.
In the Suburban market, Class C space
remains popular with smaller and more
value-driven tenants while Class A
space attracts tenants looking for more
prestigious space. Consequently, Class
B space seems to be suffering at the
expense of Class A and Class C space
in those markets.
Vacancy is expected to continue rising
in the coming quarters, due both to
new vacancies in existing stock and to
new construction. Q4 2013’s new
construction contributed approximately
40 basis points to the 70 basis points
quarterly vacancy increase and the 2.1
million sq. ft. that are expected to be
completed in 2014 may add up to 80
basis points to vacancy, assuming
significant leasing does not occur prior
to completion.
The arrows are QoQ trend indicators and do not represent a positive or negative value (e.g., absorption could be negative, but still represent a positive trend).
Q4 2013 QoQ YoY
Vacancy Rate 9.4%
Lease Rates (psf) $17.85
Net Absorption* - 0.2M SF
New Supply 1.0 M SF
Sublet Availability 21.1%
2
Q4 20
13
Toron
to O
ffice | M
ark
etV
iew
© 2014, CBRE Limited, Real Estate Brokerage
2
Table 1: Market Statistics
Submarket Inventory (SF)
Vacancy
Rate (%)
Sublease as
% of Vacant
4Q13 Net
Absorption (SF)
YTD Net
Absorption (SF)
4Q13
New Supply (SF)
4Q13 Under
Construction (SF)
Net Rent
($ psf/yr)
CENTRAL 81,438,380 6.1% 23.1% 21,316 -174,958 740,000 5,056,230 $23.77
Downtown 66,783,377 5.9% 23.8% 214,587 -185,119 740,000 5,056,230 $25.40
Financial Core 24,407,998 6.2% 27.7% -91,892 -419,816 0 1,923,546 $29.30
Greater Core 18,539,229 4.2% 22.0% 55,350 78,019 0 0 $21.63
Downtown South 4,096,442 5.0% 50.0% -22,114 -94,607 0 2,385,103 $23.34
Downtown North 7,693,967 8.5% 17.8% 335,084 331,113 740,000 0 $27.33
Downtown East 2,595,707 6.0% 16.8% -1,151 36,634 0 462,000 $19.03
Downtown West 9,450,034 6.5% 16.0% -60,690 -116,462 0 285,581 $18.90
Midtown 14,655,003 7.4% 20.8% -193,271 10,161 0 0 $18.11
Bloor / Yonge 7,499,478 5.6% 16.6% -21,597 57,686 0 0 $20.92
St. Clair / Yonge 2,118,893 5.7% 24.6% -16,241 69,008 0 0 $18.28
Eglinton / Yonge 5,036,632 10.8% 23.2% -155,433 -116,533 0 0 $15.50
SUBURBAN 69,996,235 13.1% 20.1% -216,406 -147,468 163,699 1,645,839 $14.92
East 24,794,264 12.4% 13.7% -104,147 -22,792 0 0 $13.40
Scarborough 3,609,408 13.2% 4.5% 64,082 59,428 0 0 $12.19
Mark. N. / R. Hill 7,449,132 11.0% 23.2% -19,742 47,416 0 0 $15.97
Steeles / Woodbine 2,860,816 14.4% 4.4% -69,162 -98,316 0 0 $13.18
E. York / D. Mills S. 2,695,747 10.2% 32.0% -41,299 -43,116 0 0 $11.96
Don Mills North 2,707,278 8.0% 20.2% 7,115 23,350 0 0 $9.71
Consumers Road 3,862,867 15.8% 9.2% -67,886 -67,606 0 0 $12.67
G. Baker / Vic. Park 1,609,016 17.3% 2.0% 22,745 56,052 0 0 $14.34
North 11,947,937 7.3% 35.1% -79,097 -125,240 62,500 185,104 $17.49
North Yonge 7,707,955 7.5% 51.4% -132,486 -165,477 0 75,000 $18.08
North York West 2,170,968 5.2% 0.0% -8,816 2,484 0 0 $12.73
Vaughan 2,069,014 8.7% 4.5% 62,205 37,753 62,500 110,104 $17.29
West 33,254,034 15.7% 21.4% -33,162 564 101,199 1,460,735 $15.55
Bloor / Islington 1,497,663 10.7% 6.4% 64,414 90,360 0 0 $15.73
427 Corridor 2,208,002 8.7% 21.2% 24,716 26,734 0 0 $15.35
Airport Strip 3,209,910 22.8% 15.1% -24,158 -36,345 0 0 $13.62
Airport Corp. Centre 5,454,786 14.8% 44.4% -111,319 -136,440 0 382,708 $14.37
Mississauga South 1,893,118 13.8% 14.4% -43,004 -29,462 0 0 $16.15
City Centre 3,747,823 16.5% 16.2% -65,631 -84,193 0 56,324 $16.57
Hwy 10 / Hwy 401 3,849,275 11.9% 41.9% -29,613 11,905 36,199 689,594 $13.01
Meadowvale 4,041,272 15.0% 14.8% 164,415 79,861 0 159,761 $15.76
Brampton 1,277,281 27.7% 16.4% 15,733 137,171 0 75,000 $16.93
Oakville 2,832,177 16.5% 10.6% -969 126,988 65,000 64,000 $17.51
Burlington 3,242,727 17.6% 12.9% -27,746 -186,015 0 33,348 $16.05
GTA 151,434,615 9.4% 21.2% -195,090 -322,426 903,699 6,702,069 $17.85
Source: CBRE Limited Research, Q4 2013.
3
Q4 20
13
Toron
to O
ffice | M
ark
etV
iew
© 2014, CBRE Limited, Real Estate Brokerage
3
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014* Q2 2014* Q3 2014* Q4 2014*
Vacancy
SF (000s)
Downtown Toronto is currently in the midst of a construction
cycle that will add 5.9 million sq. ft. of space through 2017.
In Q4 2013 saw the commencement of this cycle with the
completion of MaRS Phase 2, adding 740,000 sq. ft. of new
supply to existing inventory and bringing current Downtown
space under construction down to 5.1 million sq. ft. In
addition to Downtown construction, three buildings totalling
163,699 sq. ft. were completed this quarter in the Suburban
market, bringing total quarterly GTA new supply to 903,699
sq. ft. These completions significantly impacted both
vacancy and absorption as they were delivered partially-
vacant, both increasing vacancy and contributing positively
to absorption. The largest impact was felt in the Downtown
North submarket, where the completion of MaRS Phase 2
contributed 5.2% to vacancy while also increasing
absorption by 337,920 sq. ft.
Submarket Project Developer Size (SF)
Expected
Completion % Pre-Leased
Hwy 10/401 Mississauga Gateway Centre Phase II HOOPP 146,863 Q1 2015 43%
ACC Spectrum Square HOOPP 128,788 Q1 2015 0%
Meadowvale 2455 Meadowpine Blvd Dorsay Development Corp. 114,761 Q3 2014 0%
Vaughan 3100 Rutherford Rd Lorwood Homes Incorporated. 65,000 Q2 2014 25%
Hwy 10/401 7020 Hurontario St Kallo Developments 60,000 Q1 2015 0%
Hwy 10/401 Derrycrest Phase I Kenaidan 47,000 Q2 2014 100%
Vaughan 9131 Keele Street Melrose Developments 45,104 Q2 2014 0%
Hwy 10/401 Mississauga Gateway Centre Phase II HOOPP 44,751 Q3 2014 0%
Burlington 1006 Skyview Dr United Lands 33,348 Q3 2014 50%
Downtown East Globe and Mail Centre First Gulf Corporation 462,000 Q4 2016 39%
Table 2: Select Office Projects - Under Construction
Chart 2: New Supply
Chart 1: Market Outlook
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
SF (
000s)
Suburban
Central
*FORECASTED
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors
Absorption Vacancy New Supply
Source: CBRE Limited Research, Q4 2013.
Source: CBRE Limited Research, Q4 2013.
4
Q4 20
13
Toron
to O
ffice | M
ark
etV
iew
© 2014, CBRE Limited, Real Estate Brokerage
4
Vacancy in the GTA increased by 70 basis points,
representing the highest single quarter vacancy increase in
four years and the highest vacancy rate since 2010.
Vacancy increased in both Central and Suburban markets,
rising by 90 basis points and 40 basis points, respectively.
The rise in vacancy is due to two major factors. First, the
903,699 sq. ft. of completions in Q4 2013 came online
partially-vacant. The second contributor to rising vacancy is
decreasing direct deal activity. In the Suburban market,
tenant activity is strong for renewals with fewer direct lease
deals done in Q4 2013. In the Central market, tenants have
begun showing a slowdown in activity primarily due to their
position within the expiry cycle. With many large tenants
having already completed their deals in anticipation of the
new builds, there is a shortage of large tenants on the
market.
Chart 3: Vacancy Rates
Chart 4: Rental Rates
Chart 5: Net Absorption
Average asking rental rates increased by $0.32 to $17.85
per sq. ft., rising most significantly in Class A space. The
highest increase was felt in the Central market, where
average asking rental rates increased by $0.52 to $23.77
per sq. ft. Rental rates in the Central market were most
significantly affected by the completion of MaRS Phase 2,
which pushed rental rates up by $8.65 to $27.33 per sq. ft.
in the Downtown North submarket. Interestingly, even
though vacancy is on the rise, landlords in the Central
market have not yet softened on asking rates or concessions.
Consequently, net effective rents have remained stable but
are expected to soften in the coming quarters as landlords
adjust their expectations. Conversely, in the Suburban
market, average asking rental rates decreased by $0.20 to
$14.92 per sq. ft. , driven by rate decreases in both the
North and the West markets.
As vacancy rates continue to rise, absorption remains
negative for the third consecutive quarter. The Q4 2013
195,090 sq. ft. of negative absorption bring the net annual
figure to negative 322,426 sq. ft. This is the first year since
2003 where the GTA has posted negative absorption. This
negative figure would have been even lower had this
quarter’s partially-leased completions not been included in
the numbers. Quarterly absorption was negative in all GTA
markets, with the exception of Downtown. However, a large
contributor to positive absorption in the Downtown market is
the completion of MaRS Phase 2. As previously noted,
absorption figures do not necessarily paint a complete
picture of the health of a market. While vacancies seem to
be outpacing leasing, the GTA remains healthy in terms of
renewal activity, particularly in the Suburban market.
Suburban
Central
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
Suburban
Central
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
$ p
sf
Suburban
Central
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013
SF (
000s)
Source: CBRE Limited Research, Q4 2013.
Source: CBRE Limited Research, Q4 2013.
Source: CBRE Limited Research, Q4 2013.
5
Q4 20
13
Toron
to O
ffice | M
ark
etV
iew
© 2014, CBRE Limited, Real Estate Brokerage
MIDTOWN MARKET
Vacancy in the Downtown West submarket continues its upward trajectory, up
by 70 basis points QoQ to 6.5% in Q4 2013. Absorption is back in negative
territory after posting moderate gains in Q3 2013, down to negative 60,690
sq. ft. in Q4 2013.
The largest contributor to Downtown West vacancy is 277 Front Street West,
where 112,985 sq. ft. of space has come on the market. This is former Royal
Bank of Canada space, which the Bank is vacating to relocate into 180
Wellington Street West and RBC WaterPark Place.
While overall vacancy is on the rise, vacancy in RC Class space decreased by 30
basis points since Q3 2013. The last two years have seen RC vacancy at
historical lows, which speaks to the attractiveness of this class of space. Few
available large blocks and heightened tenant demand will likely see this class
of space continue to enjoy low vacancy rates.
Class A vacancy is also on the decline, decreasing by over half from 7.3% to
3.1% QoQ. The completion of QRC West in 2015 will alleviate this supply
crunch by adding 285,581 sq. ft. to inventory.
Select Downtown West transactions this quarter include:
• Shopify leased 28,500 sq. ft. at 80-82 Spadina Avenue
• John Street Inc. renewed 21,500 sq. ft. at 172 John Street
• Workplace One Consulting Inc. leased 20,00 sq. ft. at 901 King Street West
After fluctuating around 6.0% during the course of 2013, vacancy in the
Midtown market is back up to 2012 levels, ending the year at 7.4% and rising
by 130 basis points from Q3 2013.
This vacancy increase comes on the back of 193,321 sq. ft. of negative
absorption in Q4 2013. Absorption gains in the first half of 2013 were all but
erased by negative absorption in the second half of the year, brining net annual
absorption to a mere 10,161 sq. ft.
The largest vacancy increase was felt in the Eglinton and Yonge Submarket,
where vacancy rose by 310 basis points QoQ to end the year at 10.8%. The
two largest contributors to this rise in vacancy are the Thomas Cook sublease at
75 Eglinton Avenue E and a number of new vacancies at 477 Mount Pleasant
Road.
Leasing activity throughout the entire Midtown market remains confined to the
sub-10,000 sq. ft. deals. In the St. Clair and Yonge submarket, this is caused
by a shortage of large blocks of space. In the Bloor and Yonge and Eglinton
and Yonge submarkets, this is caused by a lack of large tenants on the market.
Consequently, vacancy is expected to remain flat in the coming quarters.
Select Midtown market transactions this quarter include:
• Crowe Soberman renewed 33,500 sq. ft. 2 St Clair Avenue East
• Thomas Hannam Medicine Professional Corporation leased 21,500 sq. ft. at
160 Bloor Street East
• UNICEF renewed 15,000 sq. ft. at 2200 Yonge Street
The Downtown market exhibited the single largest quarterly vacancy increase
since the Q3 2009. Vacancy rose by 80 basis points QoQ to end the year at
5.9%. While this is the highest vacancy in three years, it is nonetheless below
the 10-year average of 6.9%.
Leasing activity varies by class. Renovated and Converted (RC) product
continues enjoying strong tenant demand. Conversely, vacancy in Class A space
is on the rise as demand for large blocks of space diminishes. Class A sublease
vacancy continues rising, up by 140 basis points QoQ to 26.2% of all vacancy.
We anticipate vacancy to continue rising in the coming quarters and 2014 to be
a muted year for large tenant deals.
Vacancy increased in all submarkets, with the exception of the Greater Core.
The largest vacancy increase occurred in the Downtown North submarket, due
primarily to the addition of 402,080 sq. ft. of vacant space at the newly-
completed MaRS Discovery District’s 740,000 sq. ft. Phase 2.
The Completion of MaRS Phase 2 in Q4 2013 signalled the commencement of
the current Downtown construction cycle. An additional 5.1 million sq. ft. are
expected to be completed through 2017.
Select Downtown market transactions this quarter include:
• LinkedIn leased 37,000 sq. ft. at 250 Yonge Street
• Shepell fgi expanded by 32,000 sq. ft. at 800 Bay Street
• CNW Group leased 22,000 sq. ft. at 88 Queens Quay West
For the fourth consecutive quarter, vacancy in the Financial Core Submarket
increased, up 40 basis points QoQ to 6.2% in Q4 2013.
This quarter’s 91,892 sq. ft. of negative absorption brought the net annual
absorption figure up to negative 419,816sq. ft. This is the first time the
Financial Core submarket posted negative annual absorption since 2008 and is
the highest amount of negative annual absorption since 2003.
Sublease vacancy as a percentage of total vacancy continues rising, up by 210
basis points to 27.7%. This figure is expected to increase further as future-
dated available space becomes vacant in the coming quarters.
Leasing activity has slowed somewhat, but demand factors remain. Lease expiry
profiles continue to drive deal activity and tenants continue to look for office
space.
Net effective rents are holding firm, with landlords not sensing much downside
risk yet. As more space comes on the market in future quarters, landlords’ Net
Effective Rent expectations may moderate.
Select Financial Core transactions this quarter include:
• Sentry Investments renewed and expanded to 46,500 sq. ft. at 199 Bay
Street
• CIBC subleased 45,000 sq. ft. at 130 Adelaide Street West
• Power Corp leased 17,000 sq. ft. at 161 Bay Street
DOWNTOWN WEST
DOWNTOWN MARKET
FINANCIAL CORE
6
Q4 20
13
Toron
to O
ffice | M
ark
etV
iew
© 2014, CBRE Limited, Real Estate Brokerage
Vacancy in the West market rose slightly, up by 10 basis points since Q3 2013
to end the year at 15.7%. Quarterly absorption dipped back into negative
territory, registering at negative 33,162 sq. ft. and erasing gains seen in Q3
2013.
Despite the rising vacancy, leasing activity is accelerating in the West market.
The West market saw the highest number of large deals over 100,000 sq. ft. of
all GTA markets. However, since many of these tenants were densifying and
consolidating their space, the excess space they gave up contributed to negative
absorption for the quarter.
The completion of 7205 Hurontario Street and 3430 Superior Court added a
total of 101,199 sq. ft. of new supply to the Toronto West market in Q4 2013,
bringing overall 2013 completions to 505,911 sq. ft.
Given the recent high levels of leasing activity coupled with new supply, we
anticipate the Toronto West market to continue to experience increasing leasing
velocity.
Select West market transactions this quarter include:
• Royal Bank of Canada renewed 800,000 sq. ft. at 6880 Financial Drive,
Mississauga
• Samsung Electronics Canada Inc. leased 125,000 sq. ft. at 2050 Derry Road
W, Mississauga
• Ericsson Canada leased 69,500 sq. ft. at 2425 Matheson Boulevard E,
Mississauga
Activity in the North market has slowed somewhat since Q3 2013, with vacancy
rising by 120 basis points QoQ to end the year at 7.3%.
Vacancy rose most significantly in the North Yonge Corridor submarket, due
primarily to the 100,158 sq. ft. Procter & Gamble sublease at 4711 Yonge
Street. This space is the main contributor to sublease vacancy in the North
market, which rose by 125 basis points to 35.1% of all vacant space. This is the
highest sublease vacancy of all GTA markets.
191 Creditview Road was completed this quarter, adding 62,500 sq. ft. to
competitive inventory. Since the building was delivered fully-leased, it also
contributed 62,500 sq. ft. to absorption. Without it, absorption in the North
market would have been negative 141,597 sq. ft. instead of the negative
79,097 sq. ft. actually posted.
Average asking rental rates decreased by $0.90 to $17.49 per sq. ft. , dropping
most significantly in Class A space in the North Yonge Corridor. This is due
primarily to a $3.50 asking rent decrease at 36 York Mills Road.
Select North market transactions this quarter include:
• Mackenzie Health leased 6,500 sq. ft. at 7880 Keele Street, Vaughan
• Money Express leased 5,500 sq. ft. at 5075 Yonge Street, Toronto
• Shell leased 5,000 sq. ft. at 90 Sheppard Avenue East, Toronto
Vacancy in the Toronto Suburban market increased by 40 basis points to
13.1% in Q4 2013. This is the highest vacancy this market has experienced
since Q2 2005.
The vacancy increase was accompanied by 216,406 sq. ft. of net negative
absorption for 2013. This increase was largely concentrated in the Toronto
North market, due primarily to the 100,158 sq. ft. Proctor & Gamble sublease
at 4711 Yonge Street.
Despite the vacancy increase, leasing activity remains strong in the Suburban
market, particularly in the West market, which enjoyed a number of large
leasing transactions in Q4 2013.
Three buildings totalling 163,699 sq. ft. were completed in Q4 2013– two in
the West market and one in the North market. In addition to these
completions, eight new buildings were announced this quarter. These
announcements will see an additional 685,615 sq. ft. of space completed over
the next two years.
Select Suburban market transactions this quarter include:
• Compass Group Canada leased 63,000 sq. ft. at 1 Prologis Boulevard,
Mississauga
• Worley Parsons leased 62,000 sq. ft. at 1004 Middlegate Road,
Mississauga
• MPAC leased 15,000 sq. ft. at 100 Via Renzo Drive, Richmond Hill
Vacancy in the East market continues inching upwards, rising by 40 basis points
QoQ to 12.4% in Q4 2013. This vacancy increases comes with 104,147 sq. ft. of
negative absorption, the majority of which occurred in Class A space.
While relocation deals still exist, tenant activity in the East market continues
being skewed more heavily towards renewals than relocations. Given the relative
lack of inter-submarket tenant migration activity, landlords are aggressive in
seeking new tenants.
Despite the relative shortage of relocations, net effective rents remain stable.
Relocation costs are prohibitively high, allowing landlords to extract higher net
effective rents on renewals.
Construction activity remains muted in the East market, with no space under
construction for the third consecutive quarter. A number of planned projects are
expected to break ground in the coming quarters, particularly in the Markham
North/Richmond Hill submarket.
Select East market transactions this quarter include:
• Scotiabank leased 81,000 sq. ft. at 300 Consilium Place, Scarborough
• RBC renewed 78,000 sq. ft. at 260 East Beaver Creek, Richmond Hill
• MPAC leased 15,000 sq. ft. at 100 Via Renzo Drive, Richmond Hill
WEST MARKET EAST MARKET
SUBURBAN MARKET NORTH MARKET
7
Q4 20
13
Toron
to O
ffice | M
ark
etV
iew
© 2014, CBRE Limited, Real Estate Brokerage
7
CONTACTS
Toronto Research
Masha Dudelzak, MBA
Senior Research Analyst
CBRE Limited
145 King Street West
Suite 600
Toronto, Ontario M5H 1J8
t: +1 416 815 2316
For more information about this Toronto MarketView, please contact:
Global Research and Consulting
This report was prepared by the CBRE Canada Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Global Research and
Consulting – a network of preeminent researchers and consultants who collaborate to provide real estate market research,
econometric forecasting, and consulting solutions to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe.
Disclaimer
Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do
not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your
responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by
CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written
permission of the CBRE Global Chief Economist.
FOLLOW US
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
Y U K O NT E R R I T O R Y
N O R T H W E S TT E R R I T O R I E S
N U N A V U T
B R I T I S HC O L U M B I A
A L B E R T A
S A S K A T C H E W A N
M A N I T O B A
O N T A R I O
Q U É B E C
N E W F O U N D L A N D & L A B R A D O R
P R I N C EE D W A R DI S L A N D
N O V AS C O T I A
N E WB R U N S W I C K
VICTORIA
THUNDER BAY
WINDSOR
LONDON
SAINT JOHN
MONCTON
ST. JOHN’S
VANCOUVER
EDMONTON
WINNIPEG
KITCHENERWATERLOO REGION
CALGARY
TORONTO
MONTRÉAL
HALIFAXOTTAWA
SELECT A MARKET
Y U K O NT E R R I T O R Y
N O R T H W E S TT E R R I T O R I E S
N U N A V U T
B R I T I S HC O L U M B I A
A L B E R T A
S A S K A T C H E W A N
M A N I T O B A
O N T A R I O
Q U É B E C
N E W F O U N D L A N D & L A B R A D O R
P R I N C EE D W A R DI S L A N D
N O V AS C O T I A
N E WB R U N S W I C K
VICTORIA
THUNDER BAY
WINDSOR
LONDON
SAINT JOHN
MONCTON
ST. JOHN’S
VANCOUVER
EDMONTON
WINNIPEG
KITCHENERWATERLOO REGION
CALGARY
TORONTO
MONTRÉAL
HALIFAXOTTAWA
CLICK YELLOW DOT TO ACCESS MARKET INFO
SELECT A MARKET
CLICK NAVIGATION BUTTON TO CONTINUE TO NATIONAL OVERVIEW
CLICK FOR .PDF (PRINTABLE COPY)
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
Steady and stable may be the overall conjecture for Canada’s commercial real estate market in 2014, but that’s not to say there won’t be dynamic elements. In addition to tremendous development in many industrial markets across the country, pockets of retail and office space are expected to record increased demand for space in the coming year. For the first time in decades, multi-housing construction is on the rise and rental stock is growing in various markets across the board.
NATIONAL OVERVIEW NATIONAL OVERVIEW CLICK HERE
FOR MARKET STATISTICS
With Canada in the midst of a new development cycle, it’s safe to say most markets and property types are responding to healthy demand by building a significant amount of new commercial real estate. While the full impact of this new supply won’t be apparent for several years, the numbers are already impressive with some 6.0 million SF of office space coming into the market in 2014. In the meantime, a lack of volatility in the Canadian economy coupled with steady job growth continues to keep Canada on the radar for new capital investment.
NATIONAL OVERVIEW NATIONAL OVERVIEW HOME
5
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
Indications are that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin to unwind monetary stimulus in 2014 and interest rates will rise. But Canada is expected to remain a hotspot for foreign and local investors nonetheless. With REITs pulling back on purchases, their retreat has private equity and pension funds clamouring to fill the void. This trend suggests that there is more depth and resilience to the purchaser pool than was initially expected.
THE PLACE TO KEEP INVESTING
“It won’t become any easier to secure prime commercial real estate assets because domestic pension funds are increasing their allocation to real estate.” Peter SenstPresident Canadian Capital Markets
THE PLACE TO KEEP INVESTING
Indications are that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin to unwind monetary stimulus in 2014 and interest rates will rise. But Canada is expected to remain a hotspot for foreign and local investors nonetheless. With REITs pulling back on purchases, their retreat has private equity and pension funds clamoring to fill the void. This trend suggests that there is more depth and resilience to the purchaser pool than was initially expected.
“We’re seeing the big global sovereigns trying to find a way to come into this country because we don’t have the volatility of other countries,” says Peter Senst, President of Canadian Capital Markets at CBRE Canada. “It won’t become any easier to secure prime commercial real estate assets because domestic pension funds are upping their allocation to real estate.” He believes the search for stable income producing investments will continue to attract capital throughout 2014. He also advises against “writing off” the REITs just yet. “The biggest and best will flourish,” he says. “But there’s
no doubt we’ll still be delivering REIT offerings into the market.”
Upcoming infrastructure development will also be a key factor in determining future capital investment in many sectors of the country—and where commercial development will take place. The growing trend towards urbanization will be dependent on solid transportation links, while ongoing expansion in Western Canada will rely on future oil sand development.
7
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
Multi-housing assets will continue to be appealing to investors, but as in previous years, a lack of product could be a challenge. “There’s a real appetite for ‘centre ice’ and quality Class B multi-residential properties,” says David Montressor, CBRE Limited’s Executive Vice President, National Apartment Group. This continued strong interest is due to the stable, predictable returns the asset class offers. Capital preservation with steady annual returns and debt repayment continues to be the driving force that attracts capital to multi-housing. “Going forward, interest in building purpose built rental is expected to increase due to the lack available quality properties.” Montressor thinks that there’s little that could shake this market in 2014 unless central banks lose control and interest rates skyrocket. That being said, if rates spike, there will be no place to hide and multi-housing would continue to be the best dirty shirt in the laundry basket, with low vacancies allowing for the ability to generate cash flow while building equity through debt repayment.
“There’s a real appetite for ‘centre ice’ multi-residential properties.”
David MontressorExecutive Vice President, National Apartment Group
9
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
A RETAIL EVOLUTION“Never before in Canadian retail history has the department store segment been the subject of so much focus or been so heavily contested.”Tom BalkosSenior Vice President, Director, Retail Services Group
A RETAIL EVOLUTIONOn the retail front, more and more U.S. and European retailers are looking at Canada as their next go-to destination. With high-end U.S. retailers like Nordstrom and Saks Fifth Avenue setting up shop in the next few years, big-anchor indoor mall concepts continue to garner significant attention from investors and tenants. “Never before in Canadian retail history has the department store segment been the subject of so much focus or been so heavily contested,” says Tom Balkos, Senior Vice President and a Canadian Director of the Retail Services Group.
With Loblaws buying Shoppers Drug Mart, and Sobeys purchasing Safeway, sources of new demand for retail space and portfolio restructuring efforts are already underway. The past year has also shown the success of dominant centres in secondary markets, while second-tier retailers in the same arenas are having a harder time. With supply tight, those looking to enter the Canadian market are expected to come in smaller private label, store-in-store formats or by creating mall space with their own private brands and under their own banners.
“With all the trading of large block retail space we’re witnessing, now is a unique period of time that only happens every 30 years,” says Balkos. As the U.S. economy continues to pick up speed, however, it’s also becoming a bigger competitor for retailer expansion dollars than we’ve seen in the past several years. While Balkos says retail space in Canada is highly sought after, he points to the possibility of higher interest rates as a potential game changer. “Interest rates will affect consumer confidence and while I think it will be a consistent year it may not be one of great retail sales growth,” he says.
11
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
MORE OFFICE TOWERS, MORE EFFICIENT TENANTSWhile a downtown office construction cycle is underway, many office tenants are reducing the size of their real estate footprint and embracing new workplace strategies. “These tenants are reducing square footage per employee and redesigning the workplace to drive collaboration and productivity,” says John O’Toole, Executive Vice President and Executive Managing Director at CBRE Limited. “Economics are clearly a primary driver but it’s also about tenants making better use of their physical environment - doing more with less.”
With these new builds offering a whole different set of attributes in terms of performance, O’Toole says older buildings
will eventually have to be adapted to meet new workplace models. “Right now we’re keeping an eye on the new supply and the old as they both have their place, but it’s really a wait-and-see environment in the office space for the next year as new projects are completed,” he says.
Whether there is too much office construction for the demand, as some critics suggest, remains to be seen. The development boom in the office sector reflects a calculated bet on future demand for space, steep competition for tenants and the fact that investors hope to reap more benefits from new construction than purchasing what is already built.
In the meantime, the industrial sector is going strong and is expected to stay that way in many parts of the country through 2014. The lack of modern, high efficiency space will continue to support new construction, however prohibitive development fees in some municipalities will continue to prompt developers to invest in old buildings rather than build new.
A recent resurgence in manufacturing in the U.S., coupled with a weaker Canadian dollar, also puts Canadian exporters in a better position to compete; however, our manufacturing sector still needs to retool and reinvest to thrive in today’s ultra-competitive manufacturing market.
2010 2013 2017
MORE OFFICE TOWERS, MORE EFFICIENT TENANTS
In the meantime, the industrial sector is going strong and is expected to stay that way in many parts of the country through 2014. The lack of modern, high efficiency space will continue to support new construction, however prohibitive development fees in some municipalities will continue to prompt developers to invest in old buildings rather than build new.
A recent resurgence in manufacturing in the U.S., coupled with a weaker Canadian dollar, also puts Canadian exporters in a better position to compete; however, our manufacturing sector still needs to retool and reinvest to thrive in today’s ultra-competitive manufacturing market.
“Tenants are reducing square footage per employee and redesigning the workplace to drive collaboration and productivity.”
2010 2013 2017
John O’TooleExecutive Vice President and Executive Managing Director, Toronto
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
THE TECHNOLOGY TREND
THE TECHNOLOGY TRENDThe cumulative effect of technology on all aspects of the real estate market is not to be discounted. In the office sector, the condensed employee footprint is indicative of a more mobile workforce that is using technology to make business functions feasible from any location.
In the retail market, the rise of online sales is negating the need for as many storefronts, and is also enabling standard retail centres to act as mini-warehouses to
store the products that are being shipped cross-country. The industrial sector too is feeling the technology tug as retailers ramp up their online sales divisions and expand their fulfillment centres.
Technology is capable of driving change in all sectors of the economy, but more than at any time in recent memory, commercial real estate decisions will be impacted by technological advancements and changing business practices.
15
VANCOUVERVANCOUVERCANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
VANCOUVERVANCOUVER
HOME
CLICK FOR .PDF (PRINTABLE COPY)
2014 MARKET OUTLOOK
“When it comes to investment, Vancouver remains a highly liquid market compared to any other city in Canada, particularly in the urban core.”
VANCOUVER MARKET
Mark RenzoniPresident & CEO, CBRE Limited
CLICK HERE FOR MARKET STATISTICS
If a robust investment market is indicative of confidence in overall economic and leasing fundamentals, then 2014 looks promising for Vancouver.
The investment market continues to thrive as demand for core real estate downtown and quality property in key suburban nodes persists from local and foreign investors. “When it comes to investment, Vancouver remains a highly liquid market compared to any other city in Canada,” says Mark Renzoni, President and CEO of CBRE
Limited in Canada. “The money that comes here is betting on strong fundamentals and appreciation.” Further, Vancouver is one of the most expensive multi-residential markets in North America, and this market still maintains its strong appeal to foreign, private and institutional buyers. There continues to be a shortage of investable product across all asset classes and Renzoni is optimistic that we’ll see at least as many trades in 2014 as we saw in 2013.
VANCOUVER MARKET
Office tower construction is at an all-time high in Vancouver, especially downtown. Pent-up demand for new office product has resulted in pre-leased rates of 70%—and demand for new office space is expected to continue in 2014. On the flip side, the recent lack of job growth and interprovincial migration has been disappointing, which has impacted the office market in the short-term. There has been an uptick in subleases coming onto the market from the resource
sector and the trend is expected to continue through 2014.
The industrial sector hit an encouraging note toward the end of 2013 with a distinct upward trend in leasing and sale velocity. “Our forecasts are showing that industrial demand is continuing to increase,” says Renzoni, noting that 2014 has the potential to be a strong industrial market, which will further support the current development cycle for 2014 through 2016.
The retail sector is also an area of strength as expansion in existing shopping centres and a handful of new projects is resulting in strong leasing activity. With Nordstrom coming into the market in 2015, Renzoni says there is a sense of urgency for retailers to position themselves in the centre of the action. “There’s lots of excitement with new projects and existing expansions, which should result in a very positive market in the
$-
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
$3,500.0
$4,000.0
$4,500.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P
2014F
Vancouver Investment Volume (millions)
Source: CBRE Limited, RealNet Canada
Construction in downtown Vancouver
Robson St. , Vancouver
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
PROJECTS TO WATCH
higher traffic nodes in urban and suburban areas,” he says. “These new stores act as a catalyst for change and rejuvenation.” We will see continued success for the higher-end retail concepts.
Substantial changes to key parts of metro Vancouver’s infrastructure, include the Evergreen SkyTrain Line, the completion of the Port Mann Bridge and the South Fraser
Perimeter Road, which are all expected to positively impact the retail and industrial sectors.
THE EXCHANGE OFFICE TOWER PACIFIC CENTRE OFFICE DEVELOPMENT
PARK ROYAL SHOPPING CENTRE EXPANSIONYVR AIRPORT LUXURY OUTLET CENTRE
SOUTHEAST FALSE CREEK NEIGHBOURHOOD
21
CALGARYCALGARYCANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
CALGARYCALGARY
HOME
CLICK FOR .PDF (PRINTABLE COPY)
2014 MARKET OUTLOOK
“We’re 100% leased by the grand opening of a mall. That speaks to the fact that disposable incomes in Calgary continue to outpace the national average.”
CALGARY MARKET
Greg KwongExecutive Vice President & Regional Managing Director, Alberta
CLICK HERE FOR MARKET STATISTICS
“While the outlook for Calgary’s commercial real estate market is looking relatively stable, ‘hot spots’ in the retail, industrial and suburban office markets should keep things hopping throughout 2014,” says Greg Kwong, Executive Vice President, Regional Managing Director for CBRE Limited’s Calgary operations.
Alberta’s largest city is in the midst of a development cycle encompassing some 6.3 million SF and is expected to last for the next three to five years. In the interim, however, demand for office space is low and there is little expectation for any significant tenant moves in the downtown core for 2014.
On the multi-residential side, the development of Seton Village is expected to have a positive impact on the downtown core, drawing a whole new population of people who are choosing a more urban lifestyle. “It will certainly change what is now deemed to be a tired and undesireable area,” says Kwong.
Despite ongoing issues involving the approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline Project, and talk of a pullback in the energy sector, Alberta’s largest city is still attracting up to 30,000 new residents a year. Kwong says the slowdown in the oil patch is a challenge and layoffs are a reality, but he is confident the market will bounce back as it has in previous years. “The market here is pretty resilient,” he says.
A notable infrastructure project that is expected to impact the market is the southeast ring road expansion, a network of freeways, interchanges and bridges. The expansion of the airport that is currently underway is also significant and will include a host of new hotels as well as one of the longest runways in the country.
The Calgary retail market continues to show positive growth with low vacancy in both urban and suburban areas. “We’re 100% leased by the grand opening of a mall,” says Kwong. “That speaks to the fact that disposable incomes in Calgary continue to outpace the national average.”
Nordstrom will open its first store in Canada in Calgary’s Chinook Centre this year. “There are some other major U.S. retailers looking at Calgary and I suspect they are going to wait and see how Nordstrom does in its first
(20,000)
(10,000)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Calgary Population Change
Population Increase Natural Increase InterCity MigrationInternational Migration Interprovincial Migration
Source: Conference Board of Canada
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
year,” says Kwong. And where there are major retailers like Nordstrom setting up shop, Kwong says that distribution operations are likely to follow. In fact, major players are expected to continue to open large distribution centres in Calgary. As a result, the area’s industrial market is expected to maintain stable rental rates in 2014.
If there was one ongoing challenge in Calgary’s industrial market worth noting, it would be inadequate land supply and construction costs, says Kwong. “Unlike
any other municipality in Canada, the government controls 80% of developable land in Calgary, and they distribute it as they see fit,” he says.
Interest from Canadian and U.S. investors in a variety of commercial property types should stay strong. Calgary is holding to its reputation as a good place to do business.
PROJECTS TO WATCH
QUARRY PARK – SUBURBAN OFFICE PARK
EAST VILLAGECALGARY’S CHINOOK CENTRE CENTURY DOWNS RACETRACK AND CASINO IN BALZAC
KEYSTONE XL AND NORTHERN GATEWAY PIPELINESCALGARY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT $2.0 BILLION AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
27
EDMONTONEDMONTONCANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
EDMONTONEDMONTON
HOME
CLICK FOR .PDF (PRINTABLE COPY)
2014 MARKET OUTLOOK
“I’m expecting 2014 to be as good a year as the one just past for the industrial market, which was one of our best years ever.”
EDMONTON MARKET
Dave YoungExecutive Vice President & Managing Director, Edmonton
CLICK HERE FOR MARKET STATISTICS
Amidst modest expectations for the overall commercial real estate market in 2014, Canada’s energy powerhouse looks set to buck the trend. Even with some challenges facing Canada’s energy sector, Edmonton’s industrial market is booming, multi-housing development is increasing and suburban office continues to show impressive growth.
“Global demand for our resources is insatiable,” says Dave Young, Executive Vice President and Managing Director of CBRE Limited’s Edmonton operations. “It’s not just extraction of raw materials which still is an important contributor to the economy but
there is so much technology being developed here in our research and development facilities that is making energy extraction better—it is a huge industry in its own right.” The energy companies have made extremely large and long-term commitments to the region which will bode well for the overall Edmonton economy.
EDMONTON MARKET
Construction costs and labour shortages aside, Young is confident the industrial market will drive the commercial market forward for the foreseeable future. Massive development projects underway in the central and northern parts of the province are also making way for the companies that service them. “As Fort McMurray and Northern Alberta grow, Edmonton grows, the province grows, the country grows,” believes Young. “I’m expecting 2014 to be as good a year as the one just past for the industrial market, which was one of our best years ever.”
With the prevalence of construction, engineering and service companies setting up offices in Edmonton, Young expects growth in the suburban office market to stay positive in 2014, particularly on the south side of the city. “We’re continuing to see growth and demand in our suburban markets and we expect vacancy to decline even with the addition of new product to the inventory,” he says.
The downtown office sector is a little more challenging, not for a lack of growth but because of the potential for excess supply. “There are two or three prospective towers downtown that could be potential game changers,” says Young. “With the advent of a number of new towers, current vacancy levels could rise above 14.0% based on our 10-year average annual absorption of 128,000 SF. The new space is needed as large users are unable to expand but there will be an impact to vacancy in the core.”
With the construction of Edmonton’s new Roger’s Place (future home of the Edmonton Oilers), and the mixed-use development surrounding the arena set to begin in 2014, the city is poised to keep growing. “The arena district will change downtown and will be a catalyst for other development,” says Young. “The opportunity for downtown after 5 p.m. will be massive.” Other infrastructure projects, such as the expansion of the city’s LRT and various highway extensions, are also
North American Industrial Markets Ranked by Rent (per SF per annum)
Market Net Asking Rent ($CAD)1 SAN JOSE 13.852 SAN DIEGO 13.663 EDMONTON 10.794 OTTAWA 8.535 CALGARY 8.106 VANCOUVER 7.967 ORANGE COUNTY 8.428 HALIFAX 7.439 LOS ANGELES 7.7210 WINNIPEG 6.7911 PHOENIX 7.0212 SEATTLE 6.8013 DENVER 6.4914 NEW JERSEY NORTHERN 6.2615 HOUSTON 6.0916 MIAMI 5.9617 MONTREAL 5.1718 SACRAMENTO 5.3619 TORONTO 5.0420 BALTIMORE 5.3221 MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL 5.2822 NEW JERSEY CENTRAL 5.1823 INLAND EMPIRE 4.8524 WATERLOO REGION 4.5325 CLEVELAND 4.80
Source: CBRE Limited
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
expected to improve efficiencies and create more effective access to all areas of the city.
On the retail front, the market is solid and Young says this growth is largely in tandem with the growth in the industrial and manufacturing industries. GDP growth of 3.2% and disposable income growing at 3.4% per annum in Edmonton makes for a very exciting environment for retailers. There are many new entrants to this market
including, high-end retailers like Tiffany & Co and Samsung who have chosen West Edmonton Mall, Canada’s largest enclosed mall, for the first time as a viable place to set up shop. “Edmonton is a very affluent city and with all of the development in the region, we are forcast to lead the country in growth again in 2014. The retail business in the city will be strong and as the economy continues to grow, tenants will reap the benefits,” says Young.
KELLY-RAMSEY BUILDING
ROGERS PLACE
KEYSTONE XL AND NORTHERN GATEWAY PIPELINESFORT MCMURRAY ENERGY PROJECTS
PROJECTS TO WATCH
33
WINNIPEGWINNIPEGCANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
WINNIPEGWINNIPEG
HOME
CLICK FOR .PDF (PRINTABLE COPY)
2014 MARKET OUTLOOK
“We’re not growing at an exponential rate but we have a stable economy and that’s spilling into most elements of the commercial market.”
WINNIPEG MARKET
Trevor ClaySales Associate, Winnipeg
CLICK HERE FOR MARKET STATISTICS
With a broad range of development projects underway and a population that keeps growing, the outlook for Winnipeg in 2014 is looking positive. “We’re not growing at an exponential rate but we have a stable economy and that’s spilling into most elements of the commercial market,” says Trevor Clay, Sales Associate for CBRE Limited’s Winnipeg operations.
As a distribution hub for central Canada, Winnipeg’s industrial market is revealing a stark divide between demand for distribution-focused space versus manufacturing facilities. “There has been significant uptake of space
in the distribution end of the market, but the older buildings and larger manufacturing spaces are tougher to fill,” he says. “We’re just not seeing large-scale deals done with manufacturing-focused tenants.”
WINNIPEG MARKET
Automotive and distribution companies are clearly driving the industrial sector. The recent completion of CentrePort Way, a highway in northeast Winnipeg is expected to be a huge boon for trucking companies and subsequent development in the CentrePort area. “The plan for CentrePort is to have that highway unlock large tracks of land for industrial development and provide access to rail transport as well,” he says.
The primary drivers for the office sector are less clear. “There’s really no one industry that I would tag as being the next big thing for Winnipeg on the office side,” says Clay. “It’s basically a tenant shuffle from downtown and back instead of new players coming into the market.” Demand for Class A property continues to be high with little vacancy, whereas dwindling demand for other classes is resulting in higher vacancy rates on the lower end.
Downtown, the $180.0 million expansion of the RBC Convention Centre is slated for completion in 2016 and is expected to completely transform the southern portion of the city centre. “With our airport completed and our football stadium now ready, I think the convention centre is the most substantial public project underway in Winnipeg by far,” says Clay.
In terms of multi-housing, vacancy is increasing slightly in the rental market due to new supply. “As a lot of the older product is renovated and rents are pushed up, this has justified new construction,” says Clay. “We’ve had a lot of exciting projects come to Winnipeg in the last while as a result.”
With commercial property ownership concentrated in the hands of a small number of local owners, Clay says larger players have little chance to break into the multi-housing arena. “For now, interest rates are still at
North American Industrial Markets Ranked by Availability Rate
Market Availability Rate (%)
1 WINNIPEG 3.9
2 TORONTO 4.6
3 EDMONTON 4.7
4 ORANGE COUNTY 5.3
5 WATERLOO REGION 6.2
6 LOS ANGELES 6.2
7 HALIFAX 6.3
8 VANCOUVER 6.4
9 OTTAWA 6.5
10 DENVER 6.8
11 MINNEAPOLIS/ST. PAUL 7.0
12 CALGARY 7.1
13 CINCINNATI 7.2
14 CLEVELAND 7.2
15 INLAND EMPIRE 7.6
16 MIAMI 7.8
17 MONTREAL 7.9
18 HOUSTON 8.2
19 CHICAGO 8.4
20 INDIANAPOLIS 8.5
21 PORTLAND 8.5
22 MILWAUKEE 8.6
23 COLUMBUS 8.7
24 SEATTLE 8.7
25 NEW JERSEY NORTHERN 9.5Source: CBRE Limited
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
attractive levels and there is lots of local money looking for opportunities,” he says.
The foray of major retail anchors like IKEA and Cabelas into Winnipeg has been a positive force for the retail sector as a whole. “The IKEA project at Seasons of Tuxedo has attracted the attention of a lot of retailers that hadn’t previously considered Winnipeg,”
says Clay. With the next closest IKEA location some seven hours away in Minneapolis, Clay says the furniture giant is luring significant numbers of American as well as Canadian shoppers. Polo Park, the city’s largest enclosed mall, continues to draw significant interest from major retailers as well.
SEASONS OF TUXEDORBC CONVENTION CENTRE
CENTREPORT
PROJECTS TO WATCH
39
WATERLOO
LONDON & KITCHENER- WATERLOO
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
WATERLOO
LONDON & KITCHENER- WATERLOO
HOME
CLICK FOR .PDF (PRINTABLE COPY)
2014 MARKET OUTLOOK
“In this mature market, I see opportunity ahead. No longer do I foresee anything that could be described as bleak.”
LONDON & KITCHENER- WATERLOO REGION
Peter WhatmoreSenior Vice President & Executive Director, Southwestern Ontario
CLICK HERE FOR MARKET STATISTICS
When it comes to Southwestern Ontario’s commercial real estate outlook for 2014, it is a tale of two regions with very diverse prospects, says Peter Whatmore, Senior Vice-President and Executive Director of CBRE Limited’s Southwestern Ontario division.
In the Kitchener and Waterloo areas, expectations are high that 2014 will be an active and robust year. Despite ongoing issues around one of the area’s biggest technology companies, consolidation of the tech sector is leading to growth in other areas says Whatmore, noting that it’s not a ‘gloom and doom’ scenario for the region by any means. “This is not a one-horse town and the reality of the tech sector here is that we have
30,000 employees in 800 companies,” he says. “In this mature market, I see opportunity ahead not anything that could be described as bleak.”
Urban growth in the Kitchener and Waterloo area has been significant in terms of multi-residential and office developments, which is being largely driven by the tech sector and is expected to continue into 2014. In fact, there is an anticipated 400,000 SF of office space to be delivered in the next two to three years.
LONDON & KITCHENER- WATERLOO REGION
In the industrial sector, growth of the distribution market west of the Greater Toronto Area has been positive and continues to look promising for the coming year. A new light rail transit system in the works from north Waterloo to south Kitchener is also anticipated to have a big impact on future growth in Southwestern Ontario. “Wherever there is going to be a transportation hub there is the desire to acquire sites for future high density development,” says Whatmore.
Whereas investors are looking at Kitchener-Waterloo as an area they can place bets on the future, Whatmore says they are viewing London with more trepidation. Plant closings and unemployment will continue to impact this market in 2014. “When the plants stop closing and people stop losing their jobs by the thousands, that’s when the stability will set in,” says Whatmore. Right-to-Work legislation in the U.S. also poses challenges from a competitive standpoint across the region. “We can’t ignore it and eventually we’re going to confront this or we won’t be cost-competitive.”
On a brighter note, with an abundance of prime industrial space being added to this sector, he says the future looks more promising for the London area than it has in a while. Whatmore points to the automotive sector, which is the strongest it has been since 2007, as an example. “Today everybody is at capacity, even if you look down the road to Windsor,” he says. “So conditions are certainly improving, but we still have challenges in the region.”
Following Kitchener’s lead, academic institutions like Fanshawe College are acquiring buildings in the core, which is expected to bode well for urban growth. High office vacancy rates in London’s core can be attributed to several large retrofits, including the conversion of the Citi Plaza shopping mall into office space, but vacancies are expected to improve over the medium term. “It’s like new developments are being completed when demand isn’t all that robust,” says Whatmore.
London continues to experience solid demand from retailers. This largely stems from ongoing residential development in the area.
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
London
Waterloo Region
Ontario
Canada
Unemployment Rate
Source: Statistics Canada, December 2013
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
PROJECTS TO WATCH
KITCHENER/WATERLOO
HANLON CREEK BUSINESS PARK
NEW INTERNATIONAL TRADE CROSSING BRIDGE BETWEEN WINDSOR AND DETROIT401 CORRIDOR ACCESS IMPROVEMENTS IN LONDON
KITCHENER – WATERLOO – CAMBRIDGE RAPID TRANSIT
The Tannery
45
TORONTOTORONTOCANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
TORONTOTORONTO
HOME
CLICK FOR .PDF (PRINTABLE COPY)
2014 MARKET OUTLOOK
“We don’t know what business sector will emerge to dominate the market but we certainly see a steady increase in demand over the next five years as the economy expands.”
TORONTO MARKET
John O’TooleExecutive Vice President & Managing Director, Toronto
CLICK HERE FOR MARKET STATISTICS
It’s no secret that downtown Toronto is experiencing the largest office construction boom since the early 1990s. While anticipation mounts, the full impact of this building bonanza won’t be realized for several years yet.
In the meantime, office sublet vacancy has risen steadily and is expected to continue increasing as the new buildings are completed and tenants relocate into them. With technology advancements and better workplace strategies, many office tenants are reducing their space per employee and frequently require less space when
they relocate. “This is not a unique trend to Toronto. We’re seeing this all over the industrialized world,” says John O’Toole, Executive Vice President and Executive Managing Director at CBRE Limited. “Tenants are trying to get better performance out of their people and their buildings through better space optimization.”
TORONTO MARKET
While many large office tenants have already completed their renewal or relocation deals, sources of demand are not yet fully depleted. For one, small office tenants have typically been a steady source of demand for Class A downtown properties and this should remain constant through 2014. There are also those tenants with expiring leases who are waiting on the completion of new builds before making their real estate decisions.
With many large tenants having already completed their deals, there is some uncertainty as to where new sources of demand will come from. “We don’t know what business sector will emerge to dominate the market but we certainly see a steady increase in demand over the next five years as the economy expands,” says O’Toole. The
trend for tenants moving downtown has already begun and the potential for U.S. companies moving into Toronto, and other Canadian industries needing more space as they grow, should not be underestimated. But landlords haven’t reduced rents or provided any notable concessions and aren’t expected to do so, at least for the first part of 2014. “The city has come a long way over the last few years in terms of multi-use buildings and amenities.”
With retail construction on the rise (Toronto represents more than 50% of the total retail space under construction across the country), the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continues to rank in the top tier of most desirable locations for foreign and domestic retailers. While demand is high, large blocks of available space remain a rare commodity.
Infrastructure developments like the Union Station revitalization and Metrolinx bode well for all sectors. For the industrial sector, Metrolinx will have the single largest impact on the way the GTA functions as it creates more routes for the transportation of goods,” says CBRE Limited’s Senior Vice President & Managing Director John Haire.
From an investment point of view, he says the Region of Durham has become an unexpected hotspot for manufacturing and the inevitable retail and residential growth that is sure to follow. “We’ve seen a real
New Build Pre-lease Activity
2009
Mill
ion
SF Le
ased
Leasing
10 Tenants Took an additional 764,000 SF of total space (31%)
Giving Back
2014
Mill
ion
SF Le
ased
Leasing
15 Tenants Giving back 498,000 SF of total space (15%)
Giving Back
3.2
2.7
2.4
3.3
Source: CBRE Limited
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
resurgence in land sales and that bodes well for the east side of the GTA,” he says.
Vaughan and Mississauga are other suburban industrial nodes that will continue to perform well not only because of the available industrial space in these municipalities, but also due to their pro-business mentality. However, all municipalities face development barriers as Haire points to prohibitive developmental charges that are prompting developers to invest in existing older buildings rather than building new.
Although availability is below 5% in the industrial sector, Haire says landlords are also struggling. “Rental rates have to increase to the level that would make it economically viable for landlords to build.”
UNION/SPADINA
1 YORK, 100 ADELAIDE (ERNST & YOUNG TOWER),BAY ADELAIDE CENTRE EAST AND RBC WATERPARK PLACETHE BUTTONVILLE REDEVELOPMENT
WEST DON LANDS
METROLINX THE BIG MOVE (SEVERAL PROJECTS)UNION STATION REVITALIZATION
PROJECTS TO WATCH
51
OTTAWAOTTAWACANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
OTTAWAOTTAWA
HOME
CLICK FOR .PDF (PRINTABLE COPY)
2014 MARKET OUTLOOK
“A lot of U.S. retailers are establishing themselves in Ottawa before testing larger markets like Montreal.”
OTTAWA MARKET
Greg ClarkVice President & Managing Director, Ottawa
CLICK HERE FOR MARKET STATISTICS
With the public sector continuing to relocate some of its operations to the suburbs and loosen their grip on the downtown market, Ottawa’s office market continues to feel the effects. “We’re certainly softening in the core and while it won’t be catastrophic, the impact will be most pronounced in the Class B and C properties in 2014,” says Greg Clark, Vice-President, Managing Director of CBRE Limited’s operations in the National Capital Region. “We’re in a tenant’s market for the first time in 15 years.”
OTTAWA MARKET
While the private sector is leading the way in terms of office space efficiency, the public sector is also making the shift by implementing the Government of Canada Workplace 2.0 Fit-up Standards and reducing office space per government employee. Clark says growth in private sector and its corresponding demand for office space in downtown Ottawa has been minimal. However, some deals are still occurring and, while several large companies are relocating offices in the core, many are simply recalibrating to make better use of space. “Some of these companies have been captive audiences just waiting for available space but they’re not increasing their square footage,” says Clark. Demand for condos in the core has also been shrinking over the past year.
In terms of investment, Clark expects the appetite for Class A product to stay strong despite the current softening in the market.
“I think that everyone believes that once the budget gets nailed down, the federal government will come back and bolster the market,” he says.
Ottawa is constantly undergoing infrastructure updates, but Clark says it’s the $2.13 billion light rail transit now under construction that has the most potential to change where the future growth of the city will occur. “Ottawa is currently a bus city, but I see intensification and the creation of mixed-use development around those LRT stations,” he says. Highway 417, which is one of Ottawa’s major highways, is also being widened to ease traffic flow.
As a smaller market, Ottawa’s industrial sector is expected to stay relatively stable for the coming year. Ottawa’s industrial inventory is aging, but continues to boast some of the highest rental rates in the country because of limited stock and
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ottawa Downtown Vacancy Rate
Source: CBRE Limited
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
limited development. Pockets of space are becoming available outside the greenbelt; however, demand for this newer product is still relatively low. “There are a lot of people who would say Ottawa is suffering because it doesn’t have an ample supply of strategically located employment land,” says Clark.
The retail sector has proven solid over the last while, and Clark says we can expect that trend to continue in 2014. “A lot of U.S. retailers are establishing themselves in
Ottawa before testing larger markets like Montreal,” he says. The new Tanger Outlet Mall, set to open in Kanata in 2014, is an upscale project that has lured big name retailers like Brooks Brothers and Nike. Furthermore, Nordstrom will be launching its Ottawa location in the Rideau Centre, downtown, in early 2015. “It’s no longer just Montreal that is the fashion destination in the region,” says Clark.
OTTAWA
150 ELGIN
OTTAWA LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT SYSTEM
TANGER OUTLET MALL/KANATA
PROJECTS TO WATCH
57
MONTRÉMONTREALCANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
ÉALMONTREAL
HOME
CLICK FOR .PDF (PRINTABLE COPY)
2014 MARKET OUTLOOK
“Montreal is committed to a number of investments in infrastructure which are expected to improve efficiencies and continue to bring the population downtown as these projects progress.”
MONTREAL MARKET
Alexandre SieberSenior Vice President & Senior Managing Director, Quebec
CLICK HERE FOR MARKET STATISTICS
Moderate growth across all real estate sectors should result in an overall stable market for Montreal in 2014.
With a number of large buildings trading hands in 2013, and several office towers now under construction, activity in the office sector is expected to be modest over the coming year. As in other Canadian centres, office footprints are decreasing in the downtown core as companies downsize and seek alternate space elsewhere. The market is watching closely as the volume of sublet space approaches its highest peak since the
recession. However, downtown sublet space as a percentage of overall vacant space, at 22.2% in Montreal, remains just below the downtown national average of 23.5%.
MONTREAL MARKET
In the meantime, areas like midtown Montreal are gaining momentum as “companies are getting wiser about space utilization and efficiency gains are becoming more and more part of the strategic decisions,” says Alexandre Sieber, Senior Vice-President and Senior Managing Director of CBRE’s Quebec operations. “If I’m a bank with seven floors, do I need my back-office downtown or can I relocate it to midtown?—that’s the question tenants are considering,” says Sieber. On the other hand, demand for downtown office space is coming from new sources, such as national and International banks, who are setting up operations or coming back to the core because they see it as one of the few places left where they can still grow and take market share from local players. He also points to large tenants seeking to move from older buildings to new generation space as a trend that should continue in the coming year.
As home to the second-largest aeronautic industry in the world, Sieber says logistics and transportation related spin-off companies are finding a home in Montreal. He believes IT outsourcing businesses and the gaming industry, which has almost 100 companies operating in the province, are other sources of potential growth. With several large transportation projects in the works, including the reconstruction of the Champlain Bridge and improvements to several major highway access points, employment is on track to keep rising.
In terms of research and development, the fact that the area boasts four universities and two mega hospitals close to completion is another selling point for new business. “These are all positives for our city,” says Sieber. “Montreal is committed to a number of investments in infrastructure which are expected to improve efficiencies and continue to bring the population downtown as these projects progress.”
The retail and industrial sectors are expected to remain stable on the back of moderated growth in the Greater Montreal Area (GMA) economy and ongoing employment gains. Leasing activity is looking positive for the industrial sector, but an aging building stock is an ongoing issue.
While multi-family construction slowed in 2013, strong international migration has kept
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Montreal Percentage of Vacant Space for Sublet
Montreal Downtown All Classes National Downtown All ClassesSource: CBRE Limited
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
the population growing and the recent condo boom is expected to continue bringing new people, investment and energy to downtown Montreal.
Beyond quality product, Sieber says tenants are also looking for solid leasing options. “It’s no longer a price per pound mentality, but whether there are viable long-term leasing options available to them,” he says.
A number of negative factors have created some headwinds in the GMA economy generating sub-par growth (corruption allegations, challenged economy worldwide, tax modifications are a few examples). With the Charbonneau Commission well underway, stronger growth expected in the U.S., increased manufacturing and exports, the hope is the market will rebound in 2014 and surprise to the upside.
NEW DOWNTOWN TOWER ANNOUNCEMENTS: TOUR AIMIA, DELOITTE TOWER AND L’AVENUE TOWER
CHAMPLAIN BRIDGETWO MEGA HOSPITALSTURCOT INTERCHANGE
GRIFFINTOWNMONTREAL PREMIUM OUTLETS
PROJECTS TO WATCH
63
HALIFAXHALIFAXCANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
HALIFAXHALIFAX
HOME
CLICK FOR .PDF (PRINTABLE COPY)
2014 MARKET OUTLOOK
“To move the downtown office sector back into balance is going to take years, it starts with more urban residential density.”
HALIFAX MARKET
Robert MussettSenior Vice President & Senior Managing Director, Halifax
CLICK HERE FOR MARKET STATISTICS
Tightening vacancy in downtown office space may be the norm in many major Canadian markets, but Halifax is one metropolitan area where the suburban office market continues to hold more appeal than the more established downtown core.
In fact, Robert Mussett, Senior Vice President and Senior Managing Director of CBRE for Atlantic Canada, says the suburban office
market is significantly outperforming the urban one—and it is expected to stay that way for a while. It is no surprise then that the urban vacancy rate is expected to remain high for the foreseeable future as well. “We are not a head office market so the desire or need to be clustered in the downtown core is not as great as it is for other cities in Canada,” he says.
HALIFAX MARKET
The decades long increase in residential suburban development also means having offices in the suburbs is more conducive to employee satisfaction. “Employee recruitment and retention is important to all users, and in many cases staff are saying ‘we can park for free and get there faster’ in the suburbs,” says Mussett. That’s not to say the city isn’t investing in the downtown core. A new multi-sports facility is generating lots of buzz, as are some large multi-residential developments and proposed office towers. “People like downtown and it’s a lively place, but to move the downtown office sector back into balance is going to take years, it starts with more residential density,” he says.
On the plus side, employment opportunities in the area and several large-scale projects on the horizon, point to a potentially faster growing urban housing market, which should help spur office sector growth. As the economic hub of Nova Scotia and Atlantic Canada, job creation in Halifax is looking better than in many other parts of the country. With a breadth of institutions and a large public sector that includes one of the largest RCMP facilities in the country, infrastructure investments are ongoing, albeit more slowly due to recent fiscal pressures.
Projects such as The Bedford Waterfront Development and government shipping contract are expected to generate thousands of future jobs. With the Deep Panuke offshore natural gas field almost at full production, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is forecast to grow from 1.1% in 2013 to 2.9% in 2014. Shell and BP have committed some $2.0 billion to oil exploration and drilling activities starting in 2014, which in turn could result in some demand for office space locally as companies service these projects.
As a renter’s market primarily, with relatively high levels of discretionary income, Halifax’s retail sector continues to reap the benefits. Mussett says, by and large, the retailers do well because shoppers don’t have big mortgages and therefore more disposable income to draw from. With retail density (SF per person) exceeding the Canadian
18.1416.68
25.68
17.37
Downtown Suburban Downtown Suburban
Halifax National
Downtown vs. Suburban Class A Rents (Halifax vs. National)
Source: CBRE Limited
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
average, he expects the development of large box retail centres is coming to an end and will be replaced with small-box in-fill opportunities.
The slowdown of REIT purchasing activity in mid-2013 had a more dramatic effect in Atlantic Canada than in other parts of the
country. “In smaller markets like ours, we are very susceptible in that we are the first ones to feel the pullback in investment by the REITs and the last to feel the positive reactions,” says Mussett. “However, we expect REITs will be more active in 2014 as the outlook is for continued rate stability.”
TD CENTRE EXPANSION, NOVA CENTRE AND WATERSIDE CENTREWEST BEDFORD SUBURBAN OFFICE
SHELL AND BP OFFSHORE OIL EXPLORATION
DARTMOUTH CROSSINGDOWNTOWN STREET FRONT RETAIL
PROJECTS TO WATCH
69
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
MARKET STATISTICS
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
MARKET STATISTICS
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
INVESTMENT
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 6.1% 7.8% 8.4%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $25.28 $25.68 $26.73
Absorption (SF in millions) 2.47 (3.20) 2.60
New Supply (SF in millions) 2.43 0.88 4.48
Under Construction (SF in millions) 9.22 14.05 11.12
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 11.4% 12.1% 13.1%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $17.68 $17.37 $17.77
Absorption (SF in millions) 1.74 1.53 1.03
New Supply (SF in millions) 3.23 3.31 3.46
Under Construction (SF in millions) 8.72 7.40 5.11
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 8.4% 9.7% 10.8%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $20.80 $21.00 $21.75
Absorption (SF in millions) 4.22 (1.68) 3.63
New Supply (SF in millions) 5.65 4.19 7.94
Under Construction (SF in millions) 17.94 21.45 16.24
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 6.1% 5.8% 5.6%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $5.59 $6.00 $6.04
Sale Price (psf) $97.34 $105.82 $108.61
Absorption (SF in millions) 19.16 19.86 16.52
New Supply (SF in millions) 15.38 16.68 13.38
Under Construction (SF in millions) 15.24 12.72 10.95
TRANSACTIONS (in $millions) 2012 2013F 2014F YoY
Office $9,284 $5,574 $5,513
Industrial $5,058 $5,856 $5,647
ICI Land $4,350 $3,891 $4,221
Retail $4,931 $5,441 $4,821
Multi-housing $6,023 $4,293 $4,075
Hotel $916 $1,781 $670
Total $30,562 $26,836 $24,947
CANADA
MARKET COMMENTARY
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
MULTI-HOUSING
INVESTMENT
RETAIL
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 4.2% 6.1% 7.0%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $34.66 $33.12 $34.78
Absorption (SF in millions) (0.16) (0.43) (0.06)
Class A Cap Rate (%) 4.50-5.25 4.50-5.25 4.50-5.25
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.01 0.02 0.15
Under Construction (SF in millions) 1.46 1.68 1.91
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 12.2% 11.5% 12.4%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $20.78 $19.97 $20.97
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.47 0.15 0.45
Class A & B Cap Rate (%) 5.75-6.25 5.75-6.50 5.75-6.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.43 0.09 0.80
Under Construction (SF in millions) 2.16 1.40 0.60
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 8.1% 8.8% 9.8%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $22.49 $22.79 $24.13
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.31 (0.28) 0.38
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.45 0.11 0.95
Under Construction (SF in millions) 3.62 3.08 2.51
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 6.6% 6.4% 6.2%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $7.60 $7.96 $8.36
Sale Price (psf) $179.00 $192.00 $195.00
Absorption (SF in millions) 3.72 2.43 1.62
Class A&B Cap Rate (%) 5.50-6.25 5.25-6.25 5.25-6.25
New Supply (SF in millions) 2.56 2.31 1.45
Under Construction (SF in millions) 1.99 2.28 2.08
TRANSACTIONS (in $millions) 2012 2013F 2014F YoY
Office $1,015 $482 $408
Industrial $789 $711 $907
ICI Land $607 $593 $843
Retail $793 $1,347 $730
Multi-housing $815 $475 $308
Hotel $79 $141 $54
Total $4,097 $3,747 $3,249
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Retail Sales (YoY)* 0.4% 4.4% 3.7%
Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) 5.50-6.00 5.50-6.00 5.75-6.25
* Conference Board of Canada
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Overall Vacancy Rate** 1.8% 2.1% 2.2%
Apartment Cap Rate (%) 3.50-5.00 3.50-5.00 3.50-5.00
**Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
VANCOUVER
MARKET COMMENTARY
73
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
MULTI-HOUSING
INVESTMENT
RETAIL
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 5.0% 9.1% 9.5%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $40.58 $36.76 $37.25
Absorption (SF in millions) 2.06 (1.60) 0.61
Class A Cap Rate (%) 5.00-6.25 5.00-6.00 5.50-6.25
New Supply (SF in millions) 1.90 0.00 0.84
Under Construction (SF in millions) 1.66 4.67 3.83
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 10.8% 11.0% 11.1%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $24.30 $24.51 $25.00
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.37 0.78 0.27
Class A & B Cap Rate (%) 5.75-7.50 5.75-7.00 5.75-7.00
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.77 0.94 0.34
Under Construction (SF in millions) 1.82 1.63 1.29
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 7.0% 9.8% 10.1%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $30.38 $30.32 $31.13
Absorption (SF in millions) 2.43 (0.82) 0.89
New Supply (SF in millions) 2.67 0.94 1.18
Under Construction (SF in millions) 3.48 6.30 5.12
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 4.9% 7.1% 6.4%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $8.05 $8.10 $8.15
Sale Price (psf) $150.00 $175.00 $180.00
Absorption (SF in millions) 3.58 0.28 2.59
Class A&B Cap Rate (%) 5.50-7.00 5.50-6.75 5.50-6.75
New Supply (SF in millions) 3.82 3.09 1.90
Under Construction (SF in millions) 3.33 1.55 1.50
TRANSACTIONS (in $millions) 2012 2013F 2014F YoY
Office $1,973 $1,148 $750
Industrial $626 $674 $750
ICI Land $661 $368 $450
Retail $733 $129 $225
Multi-housing $486 $227 $300
Hotel $108 $293 $150
Total $4,587 $2,839 $2,625
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Retail Sales (YoY)* 0.3% 4.2% 4.8%
Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) 5.50-6.50 5.50-6.25 5.75-6.25
* Conference Board of Canada
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Overall Vacancy Rate** 1.3% 0.8% 1.2%
Apartment Cap Rate (%) 4.50-6.25 3.50-5.25 4.00-5.25
**Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
CALGARY
MARKET COMMENTARY
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
MULTI-HOUSING
INVESTMENT
RETAIL
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 8.3% 9.7% 10.4%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $24.54 $24.28 $24.50
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.25 (0.21) 0.13
Class A Cap Rate (%) 5.50-7.00 5.25-7.25 5.25-7.25
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.00 0.00 0.25
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.25 0.25 0.60
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 11.5% 11.8% 12.9%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $19.91 $21.27 $21.00
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.39 0.33 0.25
Class A & B Cap Rate (%) 6.25-7.25 6.25-7.25 6.25-7.25
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.26 0.43 0.44
Under Construction (SF in millions) 1.07 0.28 0.56
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 9.5% 10.5% 11.4%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $23.72 $23.67 $23.61
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.63 0.12 0.38
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.26 0.43 0.69
Under Construction (SF in millions) 1.32 0.53 1.16
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 4.7% 4.7% 3.2%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $9.88 $10.79 $10.85
Sale Price (psf) $133.33 $144.21 $145.00
Absorption (SF in millions) 2.39 4.33 3.68
Class A&B Cap Rate (%) 5.50-7.25 5.50-7.00 5.50-7.00
New Supply (SF in millions) 3.35 4.48 2.28
Under Construction (SF in millions) 1.66 2.28 1.67
TRANSACTIONS (in $millions) 2012 2013F 2014F YoY
Office $380 $385 $250
Industrial $324 $398 $330
ICI Land $761 $1,463 $1,000
Retail $570 $310 $250
Multi-housing $122 $348 $300
Hotel $159 $155 $50
Total $2,315 $3,060 $2,180
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Retail Sales (YoY)* 1.2% 4.8% 4.5%
Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) 5.75-6.50 5.75-6.25 5.75-6.25
* Conference Board of Canada
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Overall Vacancy Rate** 1.7% 1.0% 1.3%
Apartment Cap Rate (%) 4.00-6.25 4.50-6.25 4.50-6.25
**Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
EDMONTON
MARKET COMMENTARY
75
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
MULTI-HOUSING
RETAIL
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 9.7% 10.8% 10.6%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $16.06 $15.81 $16.31
Absorption (SF in millions) (0.16) (0.10) 0.09
Class A Cap Rate (%) 6.00-7.50 6.00-7.50 6.00-7.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.00 0.00 0.08
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.08 0.08 0.04
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 12.7% 14.1% 12.0%
All Class Net Rental Rate (psf) $12.50 $12.37 $12.41
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.19 0.15 0.18
Class A & B Cap Rate (%) 7.00-8.00 7.00-8.00 7.00-8.00
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.10 0.21 0.14
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.21 0.07 0.04
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 10.4% 11.6% 11.0%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $16.06 $15.81 $16.31
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.03 0.05 0.27
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.10 0.21 0.22
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.29 0.15 0.08
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 3.5% 4.0% 4.1%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $6.58 $6.79 $6.89
Sale Price (psf) $69.25 $91.10 $95.00
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.27 0.03 0.20
Class A&B Cap Rate (%) 6.50-7.50 6.50-7.50 6.50-7.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.24 0.42 0.23
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.37 0.13 0.10
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Retail Sales (YoY)* -1.0% 3.7% 2.5%
Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) 6.50-7.50 6.50-7.00 6.50-7.00
* Conference Board of Canada
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Overall Vacancy Rate** 1.7% 2.0% 2.2%
Apartment Cap Rate (%) 5.00-6.00 5.00-6.00 5.00-6.00
**Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
WINNIPEG
MARKET COMMENTARY
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
MULTI-HOUSING
INVESTMENT
RETAIL
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 14.3% 16.4% 16.2%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $13.61 $13.36 $13.40
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.08 (0.06) 0.01
Class A Cap Rate (%) n/a 7.00-7.50 7.00-7.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.00 0.00 0.00
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.00 0.00 0.00
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 11.6% 12.2% 10.7%
All Class Net Rental Rate (psf) $12.27 $12.20 $12.50
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.00 0.01 0.03
Class A & B Cap Rate (%) n/a 7.50-8.50 7.50-8.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.00 0.02 0.01
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.04 0.01 0.02
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 13.8% 15.6% 15.1%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $13.61 $13.36 $13.40
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.09 (0.05) 0.04
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.00 0.02 0.01
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.04 0.01 0.02
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 13.0% 12.8% 12.5%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $3.91 $4.03 $4.00
Sale Price (psf) $57.30 $47.55 $50.00
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.81 1.27 0.24
Class A&B Cap Rate (%) n/a 8.25-9.00 8.25-9.00
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.35 0.35 0.13
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.36 0.08 0.25
TRANSACTIONS (in $millions) 2012 2013F 2014F YoY
Office $50 $12 $6
Industrial $11 $31 $22
ICI Land $112 $6 $40
Retail $62 $39 $22
Multi-housing $272 $110 $30
Hotel $55 $27 $20
Total $562 $225 $140
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Overall Vacancy Rate** 3.9% 3.7% 3.3%
Apartment Cap Rate (%) n/a 5.00-7.25 5.00-7.25
**Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
LONDON
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Retail Sales (YoY)* n/a n/a n/a
Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) n/a 6.75-7.25 6.75-7.25
* Conference Board of Canada
MARKET COMMENTARY
77
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
MULTI-HOUSING
INVESTMENT
RETAIL
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 8.1% 10.0% 10.2%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $15.96 $15.26 $14.95
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.29 (0.07) (0.01)
Class A Cap Rate (%) n/a 6.50-7.00 6.50-7.00
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.19 0.04 0.00
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.04 0.00 0.09
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 8.5% 9.0% 11.3%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $15.69 $13.72 $13.81
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.01 (0.04) 0.06
Class A & B Cap Rate (%) n/a 6.50-7.50 7.50-8.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.03 0.09 0.33
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.08 0.16 0.07
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 8.4% 9.3% 11.0%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $15.80 $14.28 $14.16
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.30 (0.11) 0.05
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.22 0.14 0.33
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.13 0.16 0.16
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 7.0% 6.2% 6.5%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $4.33 $4.53 $4.59
Sale Price (psf) $48.01 $57.98 $54.53
Absorption (SF in millions) 1.07 0.82 (0.04)
Class A&B Cap Rate (%) n/a 6.50-6.50 6.50-8.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.39 0.00 0.26
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.13 0.25 0.20
TRANSACTIONS (in $millions) 2012 2013F 2014F YoY
Office $91 $46 $40
Industrial $45 $85 $88
ICI Land $72 $29 $32
Retail $237 $189 $184
Multi-housing $480 $281 $328
Hotel $20 $10 $8
Total $945 $641 $680
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Retail Sales (YoY)* n/a n/a n/a
Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) n/a 6.00-6.50 7.00-7.50
* Conference Board of Canada
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Overall Vacancy Rate** 2.6% 3.0% 3.2%
Apartment Cap Rate (%) n/a 4.75-6.50 4.75-7.00
**Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
WATERLOO REGION
MARKET COMMENTARY
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
MULTI-HOUSING
INVESTMENT
RETAIL
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 5.0% 6.1% 7.3%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $27.03 $27.09 $28.18
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.22 (0.17) 0.54
Class A Cap Rate (%) 4.75-5.75 4.75-5.75 4.75-5.75
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.21 0.74 1.59
Under Construction (SF in millions) 3.54 5.06 3.47
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 12.2% 13.1% 15.7%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $16.91 $16.56 $17.23
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.03 (0.15) (1.38)
Class A & B Cap Rate (%) 6.00-7.75 6.00-8.00 6.00-8.00
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.85 0.61 0.55
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.92 1.65 1.10
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 8.3% 9.4% 11.1%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $20.58 $20.51 $21.26
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.26 (0.32) (0.84)
New Supply (SF in millions) 1.06 1.35 2.14
Under Construction (SF in millions) 4.46 6.70 4.57
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 5.2% 4.6% 4.5%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $4.65 $5.04 $5.24
Sale Price (psf) $87.47 $86.87 $90.24
Absorption (SF in millions) 3.45 8.42 6.90
Class A&B Cap Rate (%) 5.75-7.50 5.75-7.50 5.75-7.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 3.26 4.51 6.35
Under Construction (SF in millions) 6.41 5.49 4.75
TRANSACTIONS (in $millions) 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Office $4,113 $2,503 $2,378
Industrial $1,974 $2,845 $2,561
ICI Land $1,277 $1,297 $1,232
Retail $1,352 $2,447 $2,325
Multi-housing $1,563 $1,615 $1,534
Hotel $314 $663 $298
Total $10,592 $11,370 $10,328
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Retail Sales (YoY)* -1.1% 3.8% 5.0%
Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) 5.50-6.50 5.50-6.50 5.50-6.50
* Conference Board of Canada
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Overall Vacancy Rate** 1.7% 1.7% 1.8%
Apartment Cap Rate (%) 3.50-5.25 3.50-5.25 3.50-5.25
**Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
TORONTO
MARKET COMMENTARY
79
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
MULTI-HOUSING
INVESTMENT
RETAIL
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 6.1% 7.2% 8.5%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $26.31 $24.91 $23.72
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.02 (0.21) 0.68
Class A Cap Rate (%) 5.00-6.00 5.25-6.00 5.25-6.00
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.00 0.00 1.01
Under Construction (SF in millions) 1.01 1.01 0.00
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 9.1% 9.4% 8.7%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $13.87 $14.07 $14.12
Absorption (SF in millions) (0.04) 0.05 0.15
Class A & B Cap Rate (%) 6.25-8.00 6.25-7.50 6.25-7.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.07 0.10 0.00
Under Construction (SF in millions) 1.43 1.07 1.07
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 7.7% 8.4% 9.0%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $17.17 $17.22 $17.70
Absorption (SF in millions) (0.03) (0.16) 0.83
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.07 0.10 1.01
Under Construction (SF in millions) 2.43 2.07 1.07
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 6.4% 6.5% 6.5%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $8.53 $8.53 $8.62
Sale Price (psf) $122.53 $115.85 $125.36
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.02 0.01 0.05
Class A&B Cap Rate (%) 6.00-7.75 6.00-6.25 6.00-6.25
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.11 0.11 0.06
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.05 0.03 0.00
TRANSACTIONS (in $millions) 2012 2013F 2014F YoY
Office $973 $252 $330
Industrial $212 $142 $140
ICI Land $383 $332 $275
Retail $244 $307 $285
Multi-housing $768 $471 $325
Hotel $54 $283 $15
Total 2,633 1,786 1,370
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Retail Sales (YoY)* 1.0% 2.2% 3.0%
Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) 6.25-7.00 6.25-7.00 6.25-7.00
* Conference Board of Canada
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Overall Vacancy Rate** 2.5% 3.2% 3.0%
Apartment Cap Rate (%) 4.25-5.75 4.25-5.75 4.25-5.75
**Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
OTTAWA
MARKET COMMENTARY
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
MULTI-HOUSING
INVESTMENT
RETAIL
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 6.9% 8.2% 7.7%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $21.41 $21.71 $22.50
Absorption (SF in millions) (0.19) (0.47) 0.55
Class A Cap Rate (%) 5.00-5.50 5.25-5.75 5.25-6.00
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.00 0.07 0.37
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.82 0.93 1.04
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 12.8% 14.1% 12.4%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $14.57 $14.52 $14.60
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.09 0.18 0.94
Class A & B Cap Rate (%) 6.50-8.50 6.50-8.50 6.75-8.75
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.35 0.60 0.58
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.76 0.85 0.22
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 9.1% 10.4% 9.5%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $18.07 $18.42 $18.57
Absorption (SF in millions) (0.10) (0.29) 1.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.35 0.68 0.95
Under Construction (SF in millions) 1.58 1.78 1.25
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 8.1% 7.9% 7.8%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $5.04 $5.17 $5.20
Sale Price (psf) $56.51 $67.60 $66.00
Absorption (SF in millions) 3.29 1.90 0.67
Class A&B Cap Rate (%) 6.25-8.75 6.50-8.75 6.75-9.00
New Supply (SF in millions) 1.20 1.03 0.52
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.69 0.56 0.20
TRANSACTIONS (in $millions) 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Office $653 $813 $1,250
Industrial $867 $838 $750
ICI Land $454 $353 $300
Retail $665 $668 $700
Multi-housing $1,355 $834 $850
Hotel $119 $88 $65
Total $4,114 $3,594 $3,915
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Retail Sales (YoY)* 1.0% 5.6% 4.3%
Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) 7.25-8.25 7.25-8.25 7.50-8.50
* Conference Board of Canada
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Overall Vacancy Rate** 2.8% 2.7% 2.5%
Apartment Cap Rate (%) 4.75-7.00 5.00-7.00 5.25-7.25
**Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
MONTRÉAL
MARKET COMMENTARY
81
MARKET STATISTICS
OFFICE INDUSTRIAL
MULTI-HOUSING
INVESTMENT
RETAIL
DOWNTOWN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 10.8% 8.3% 10.9%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $18.14 $18.14 $19.33
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.06 0.11 0.06
Class A Cap Rate (%) 6.00-6.50 6.00-6.50 6.25-6.75
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.11 0.00 0.21
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.36 0.37 0.15
SUBURBAN 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 8.8% 11.1% 13.4%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $16.64 $16.68 $16.84
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.24 0.06 0.07
Class A & B Cap Rate (%) 7.25-8.50 7.25-8.50 7.25-8.50
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.36 0.22 0.26
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.22 0.28 0.15
OVERALL 2012 2013 2014F YoY
Vacancy Rate 9.7% 9.9% 12.3%
Class A Net Rental Rate (psf) $17.65 $17.34 $17.92
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.30 0.18 0.14
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.47 0.22 0.47
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.58 0.66 0.30
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Availability Rate 6.7% 6.3% 5.9%
Net Rental Rate (psf) $7.44 $7.43 $7.55
Sale Price (psf) $70.00 $80.00 $85.00
Absorption (SF in millions) 0.01 0.40 0.25
Class A&B Cap Rate (%) 6.50-7.75 6.50-7.75 6.75-7.75
New Supply (SF in millions) 0.12 0.38 0.21
Under Construction (SF in millions) 0.26 0.08 0.10
TRANSACTIONS (in $millions) 2012 2013F 2014F YoY
Office $37 $16 $100
Industrial $212 $65 $100
ICI Land $24 $54 $50
Retail $277 $50 $100
Multi-housing $161 $47 $100
Hotel $8 $89 $10
Total $718 $321 $460
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Retail Sales (YoY)* 1.4% 4.5% 3.3%
Neighbourhood Cap Rate (%) 6.25-6.75 6.25-6.75 6.50-7.00
* Conference Board of Canada
2012 2013 2014F YoY
Overall Vacancy Rate** 3.0% 3.5% 4.5%
Apartment Cap Rate (%) 5.25-6.50 5.25-6.50 5.50-6.75
**Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
HALIFAX
MARKET COMMENTARY
CANADIAN MARKET OUTLOOK 2014
MARKET COMMENTARY
83
This disclaimer shall apply to CBRE Limited, Real Estate Brokerage, and to all other divisions of the Corporation (“CBRE”). The information set out herein, including, without limitation, any projections, images, opinions, assumptions and estimates obtained from third parties (the “Information”) has not been verified by CBRE, and CBRE does not represent, warrant or guarantee the accuracy, correctness and completeness of the Information. CBRE does not accept or assume any responsibility or liability, direct or consequential, for the Information or the recipient’s reliance upon the Information. The recipient of the Information should take such steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the Information prior to placing any reliance upon the Information. The Information may change and any property described in the Information may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from CBRE. CBRE and the CBRE logo are the service marks of CBRE Limited and/or its affiliated or related companies in other countries. All other marks displayed on this document are the property of their respective owners. All Rights Reserved. Mapping Sources: Canadian Mapping Services [email protected]; DMTI Spatial, Environics Analytics, Microsoft Bing, Google Earth
NATIONALRoss Moore Director of Research, Canada [email protected] 604.662.5101
Roelof van Dijk Research Manager, Canada [email protected] 416.847.3241
Kevin Park Senior Research Analyst [email protected] 416.847.3263
Brett Llewellyn-Thomas Research Analyst [email protected] 416.874.7274
VICTORIAKristen Morrill Research Associate [email protected] 250.386.0000
VANCOUVERShaan Desai Senior Research Analyst [email protected] 604.662.5165
CALGARYJeffrey Hurren Senior Research Analyst [email protected] 403.750.0519
EDMONTONJayson de Vera Research Analyst [email protected] 780.917.4636
WINNIPEGJeff Reinsch Research Associate [email protected] 204.985.1357
LONDONJaclyn Harrison Research Associate [email protected] 519.286.2024
WATERLOO REGIONCameron Woolfrey Research Associate [email protected] 519.340.2322
GREATER TORONTO AREA (GTA)Masha Dudelzak - Office Senior Research Analyst [email protected] 416.815.2316
Lynn Duong - Industrial Senior Research Analyst [email protected] 416.495.6286
OTTAWADavid Johnston Sales Trainee [email protected] 613.788.2760
Will Roantree Sales Trainee [email protected] 613.288.2048
MONTREALLynn Johannesson Senior Research Analyst [email protected] 514.849.6000 x 2236
HALIFAXJuliana Chong Research Associate [email protected] 902.492.2078