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Cincinnati Reds

Press Clippings

January 6, 2017

THIS DAY IN REDS HISTORY 1937-The Reds send Tommy Thevenow to the Braves. Thevenow plays one season with the Reds, batting .234 with 36 RBI in 106

games

MLB.COM Reds hoping to add veteran catching depth

Cincinnati could benefit from having experienced backstop fill part-time role

By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com | @m_sheldon | January 5th, 2017 + 30 COMMENTS

CINCINNATI -- The Reds' offseason shopping list includes adding catching depth behind Devin Mesoraco and Tucker Barnhart.

But for that spot to be filled, a potential third catcher might have to take a leap of faith and have a willingness to be flexible.

That's because the playing time any new catcher will receive is unknown heading into Spring Training. The X-factor is Mesoraco,

who has been limited to catching 18 games over the past two seasons because of injuries. The 28-year-old had labrum surgery on

each of his hips and another on his non-throwing shoulder in that span.

Mesoraco and Reds officials believe he can come back 100 percent after his rehabilitation. He is slated to resume catching drills

later this month, but his readiness for the upcoming season remains unclear. Even if he passes every test with flying colors, he likely

won't get a 130-game workload and will split time with Barnhart, who filled in very well in 2016.

Having a third catcher would give manager Bryan Price flexibility to use one of his catchers as a pinch-hitter without being strapped

defensively, and the addition of an unselfish veteran willing to catch once a week -- like David Ross with the Cubs the past two

years -- could also help the other catchers and pitching staff improve.

Cincinnati added Stuart Turner as a Rule 5 selection in December, but that is no guarantee he will stay on the 25-man roster the

whole season. If general manager Dick Williams goes the free-agent route, here are some options among available

catchers:

Josh Thole

Once a promising catcher for the Mets, the 30-year-old Thole lacks offense, as he hit .200/.275/.248 over his last four seasons with

the Blue Jays. But among the remaining bargain free-agent catchers, he was the best pitch framer last season, with 4.8 framing runs

saved, according to Baseball Prospectus. According to Statcast™, Thole also had 8.47 percent of out-of-zone pitches called strikes

in 2016, the second-best rate among this list of available catchers (min. 500 out-of-zone pitches caught). His 2.8 percent of in-zone

pitches called balls was also the lowest percentage in the group (min. 500 in-zone pitches).

Geovany Soto

A former National League Rookie of the Year with the Cubs in 2008, Soto has become well-traveled, making stops with four clubs

over the past three seasons. The 33-year-old also suffered from knee issues, including one surgery, which limited him to 26 games

last season for the Angels. Although he's a .246 career hitter, he can get on base (.331 career OBP), and he can steal a strike.

According to Statcast™, he was the best among the bargain free agents with 8.96 percent of out-of-zone pitches called strikes in

2016.

Ryan Hanigan

This former Red is now 36 and served as a backup in Boston for the past two seasons, though he was limited to 35 games for the

Red Sox in 2016, in part due to injuries. Getting on base was once a strength, but Hanigan's offensive production has waned since

leaving Cincinnati: He hit .219/.298/.294 with 30 RBIs in 89 games over the past two years. Hanigan was regarded as a strong

defensive catcher for the Reds, and he was a favorite of former pitcher Bronson Arroyo. His pitch framing runs stat dipped to

negative 4.5 last season, but he had 7.9 percent of out-of-zone pitches called strikes.

Chris Iannetta:

According to Baseball Prospectus, the 33-year-old Iannetta went from being strong at pitch framing in 2015 (plus 14.4) to weak

(minus 14.4) in 2016. He is a career .229 hitter, but he is capable of hitting for power, especially at Great American Ball Park, where

he has five homers in 53 career at-bats.

Nick Hundley:

Hundley, 33, hit .301 two seasons ago for the Rockies, and he knocked 10 homers in each of the last two seasons, but he is not

viewed as strong defensively. He has negative pitch framing numbers for much of his career.

A.J. Pierzynski:

Now 40, Pierzynski has experience with rebuilding after spending the past two seasons in Atlanta. He hit .300/.339/.430 in 113

games in 2015, but those numbers fell to .219/.243/.304 last season. Defensively, 7.87 percent of out-of-zone pitches he caught were

called strikes in 2016, and 2.88 percent of in-zone pitches were called balls. Pierzynski, who won a World Series with the White

Sox in 2005, isn't afraid to speak his mind, and he is known for irritating opponents with his fiery style on the field.

Other free-agent catchers: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Hank Conger, Dioner Navarro, Chris Gimenez and former Reds catcher Brayan

Pena.

Source: Phillips blocked trade from Reds to Braves

Second baseman invoked 10-and-5 rights to remain in Cincinnati

By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com | January 5th, 2017 + 157 COMMENTS

CINCINNATI -- The Reds have been trying to move Brandon Phillips and have found takers for their longtime second baseman in

each of the past two offseasons. But Phillips has again invoked his no-trade privileges.

A source confirmed to MLB.com that Phillips blocked a potential trade from the Reds to the Braves in November, as first reported

Thursday by MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal.

Reds general manager Dick Williams did not comment on the report. Braves GM John Coppolella responded to MLB.com's Mark

Bowman.

"We explore a myriad of trade opportunities, some which make more progress than others, and some which get more media

attention than others," Coppolella said. "Trades aren't done until they are done."

It was the third time that Phillips has used his no-trade rights to block a deal. The Reds had trades in place last winter with the

Nationals and D-backs but could not get his approval.

Phillips, 35, is due to make $14 million in 2017, the final year of his six-year, $72.5 million contract. The rebuilding Reds, who

would have assumed some of the owed money in the deal with Atlanta, have been trying to clear their middle infield of Phillips and

shortstop Zack Cozart to make way for young shortstop Jose Peraza and second baseman Dilson Herrera.

If the Reds are unable to trade Phillips and Cozart, they are prepared to go to Opening Day with both players and use Peraza in a

utility role to get at least four starts per week. Herrera would likely begin 2017 in Triple-A. But it is likely that Phillips will see his

playing time reduced at some point as Williams and manager Bryan Price would like to focus on players with a future beyond next

season. Cozart, who is arbitration-eligible for the third and final year this winter, can be a free agent after the season.

According to Rosenthal, the Braves moved on to sign infielder Sean Rodriguez to a two-year, $11.5 million contract on Nov. 24 and

are unlikely to revive talks with Cincinnati about Phillips.

The Reds' current longest-tenured player has full no-trade protection because of his status as a 10-and-5 player -- 10 years in the

Majors, the past five with the same club.

Phillips batted .291/.320/.416 with 11 home runs and 64 RBIs while playing 141 games last season. He has become a fan favorite in

Cincinnati, which perhaps was part of his motivation to turn down the Braves, despite being from nearby Stone Mountain, Ga.

During the Winter Meetings last month, Phillips sidestepped questions about whether he would accept a trade out of Cincinnati.

"Honestly I haven't really thought about anything," Phillips said on Dec. 5. "All I know is I'm the starting second baseman of the

Cincinnati Reds, as of right now. I'm happy just to have a job. I'll just go from there. I don't really know what's going to happen. The

only thing I know is I'm still in the Major Leagues. I'm playing baseball for the Cincinnati Reds. I love my city. I'm happy where I'm

at. I can't really predict the future."

CINCINNATI ENQUIRER

Phillips blocked trade to Braves in November

C. Trent Rosecrans , [email protected] Published 10:06 p.m. ET Jan. 5, 2017

Brandon Phillips blocked a trade to his hometown Atlanta Braves in November, sources confirmed to The Enquirer on Thursday.

The blocked trade was initially reported by Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com.

Phillips, 35, is in the final year of a six-year, $72.5 million extension signed in 2012. He is scheduled to make $14 million this

season.

Phillips has full no-trade protection. He earned full no-trade rights with 10 years of service time, including at least the last five years

with the same team. Last offseason he blocked at least two trade attempts - to the Nationals and Diamondbacks - to return to the

Reds.

Before his 10-5 rights kicked in, the Reds had tried to trade him to the Yankees after the 2013 season, but he had a limited no-trade

clause at the time that included the Yankees. That deal fell through..

The Reds acquired second baseman Dilson Herrera at the trade deadline in the deal that sent outfielder Jay Bruce to the Mets. The

team also has Jose Peraza, who has played shortstop, second base and center field. Both Herrera and Peraza need playing time, but

are blocked in the middle infield by the veteran Phillips and shortstop Zack Cozart.

The Reds have informed Phillips that his playing time could be cut this upcoming season, but he has expressed his desire to stay in

Cincinnati.

Phillips, who was acquired in a trade with the Indians in 2006, has spent the last 11 seasons as the Reds’ second baseman, earning

four Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger and three All-Star nods. Last season, he hit .291/.320/.416, but advanced metrics rated his

defense at second below average.

BASEBALL AMERICA

2017 Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects

January 04, 2017 By J.J. Cooper

TOP 10 PROSPECTS

1. Nick Senzel, 3b

2. Cody Reed, lhp

3. Amir Garrett, lhp

4. Robert Stephenson, rhp

5. Taylor Trammell, of

6. Jesse Winker, of

7. Aristides Aquino, of

8. Sal Romano, rhp

9. Vladimir Gutierrez, rhp

10. Tyler Stephenson, c

The Reds’ rebuilding effort hit full speed in 2016. The organization hopes that it has hit rock bottom with a 94-loss season and has

now started the slow climb back to both respectability and contention in the National League Central.

One characteristic of rebuilding teams is opportunity. Teams like the 2016 Reds have a surplus of at-bats and innings available for

the taking, and ideally that playing time goes to young players—or at least lesser-noticed players who could turn into valuable big

league pieces.

In that regard, the Reds experienced a bit of success in 2016. The club had to play almost the entire year without two of its highest-

paid players—catcher Devin Mesoraco and righthander Homer Bailey—which made even more at-bats and innings available.

In this context, Cincinnati identified a few possible solutions for the future. Left fielder Adam Duvall, acquired in the 2015 Mike

Leake trade, combined power and surprisingly good defense with plenty of strikeouts. Waiver claim righthander Dan Straily proved

to be a surprisingly strong addition as a mid-rotation starter.

Shortstop Jose Peraza, whom the Reds acquired after the 2015 season when they traded Todd Frazier, showed Cincinnati that he

needs a spot in the 2017 lineup. The Reds’ patience in center fielder Billy Hamilton paid off when his second half at the plate

(.293/.369/.333) hinted that he can get on-base enough to let his best-in-baseball speed play on the bases as well as in center field.

The farm system is deeper as well thanks to holding the No. 2 overall pick in the 2016 draft and having the second-most money to

spend internationally. The Reds’ draft class should pay benefits for years to come, and Cincinnati will choose second overall again

in 2017.

But Cincinnati must lament how the system could be even deeper. A series of poorly-timed decisions stretching over a number of

years will cost the Reds for years to come.

Most notably, Cincinnati traded closer Aroldis Chapman at the worst possible time, right after news broke that Chapman was being

investigated for a domestic violence allegation.

Of the four players the Reds acquired from New York for Chapman, none rank among the organization’s Top 30 Prospects—and

two (Caleb Cotham and Tony Renda) have been dropped from the 40-man roster.

The Reds’ return from the Mets for right fielder Jay Bruce at the 2016 trade deadline also was modest—Rookie-ball lefty Max

Wotell and Triple-A second baseman Dilson Herrera—and Cincinnati is stuck with 35-year-old second baseman Brandon Phillips

for one more season.

All of those missteps can be overcome, but for the Reds to contend before Joey Votto reaches the decline phase of his 10-year

extension, they will have to figure out how to turn the team’s impressive group of upper-level pitching prospects into solid big

leaguers. That’s the biggest challenge in 2017.

DAYTON DAILY NEWS

Report: Reds Brandon Phillips blocked trade to Braves

John Boyle Staff Writer

11:43 p.m Thursday, Jan. 5, 2017 Sports

Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips blocked a trade in November that would have sent him to the Atlanta Braves, according to

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

It’s the third time in the last year Phillips has blocked a trade. The Reds had deals in place to trade Phillips to the Nationals and

Diamondbacks last year. As a 10-and-5 player — 10 years in the majors, the past five with the same team, Phillips can veto any

trades.

Phillips, 35, is entering the final year of a six-year, $72.5 million contract. He’s due to make $14 million this season.

The Reds, in the midst of a rebuild, are looking to trade Phillips, their longest-tenured player, and shortstop Zack Cozart to open up

playing time for 22-year-olds Dilson Hererra (second base) and Jose Peraza (shortstop).

Peraza hit .324 with 25 RBIs and 21 stolen bases in 72 games for the Reds last season, and Herrera hit .274 with 15 homers and 64

RBIs in 110 Triple-A games last season.

Reds manager Bryan Price said last month at the Winter Meetings that Peraza is a “major leaguer” who “has got to play.”

Phillips hit .291 with 11 home runs and 64 RBIs last season, his 11th with the Reds. A four-time Gold Glove winner and three-time

All Star, Phillips came to the Reds in trade with the Indians in 2006.

What should the Cincinnati Reds do with Brandon Phillips?

SPORTS By Marcus Hartman - Staff Writer

Posted: 10:09 a.m. Friday, January 06, 2017

What should the Reds do with Brandon Phillips?

That might be a question that lingers for the next three months. At a minimum.

The answer probably won’t be pleasant for either side.

The impasse at which Cincinnati and its former Gold Glove second baseman find themselves is not all that unique.

Time catches up with everyone, and teams can’t stand still when the time to rebuild comes.

The Reds are already guilty of waiting too long to unload assets when their last window of contention closed, causing them to get a

pitiful return for Aroldis Chapman and preventing them from maximizing the value of Johnny Cueto or Jay Bruce.

It’s hard to imagine them getting much, if anything of value in return for the 35-year-old Phillips at this point, but the team may be

wasting at-bats if he is still the everyday second baseman this summer and prospects Dilson Herrera and/or Jose Peraza don’t have

anywhere to play regularly in the majors.

Phillips is completely within his rights to use his status as a 10-5 player (10 years in the majors including the last five with the same

team) to maximize his own earning power, too, but if he won’t accept a trade to his hometown team (Atlanta), it stands to wonder if

there is anything close to realistic that will satisfy him.

At this point the Reds could bench Phillips and risk clubhouse uneasiness or outright release him and just eat his salary.

What probably makes the most sense is simply to go into spring training with the understanding the best man will win the most at-

bats. (General manager Dick Williams’ comments on the Reds Hot Stove radio show this week indicate Phillips has been told he

won’t be in the lineup just because he’s making $14 million.)

If he re-earns his starting spot, perhaps Phillips can elevate his value on the trade market and would accept a move over playing out

the string in what looks like another rebuilding year.

If he struggles, it’s time to turn the page, however that has to be done.

At any rate, Phillips has been a great Red since the club rescued him from the baseball purgatory of being designated for assignment

by the Indians almost 12 years ago.

He has dazzled on the field and been a great ambassador off it for a team whose brand needed some sprucing up as it went 15 years

without a postseason appearance.

An absolute gamer who played through injuries and tweeted through hard times, Phillips will undoubtedly be in the club’s Hall of

Fame some day.

These contentious times will largely be forgotten (as they were with Barry Larkin and others) whatever the resolution turns out to

be.

The team smartly seems determined not to let him hamper its rebuilding effort, but maybe Phillips can still write a happy ending.

CBSSPORTS.COM Report: Brandon Phillips vetoed trade for second straight offseason

This time around it was a potential deal to the Braves

Matt Snyder

12h ago

As a 10-and-5 guy (a player with at least 10 years of big-league experience and at least five straight seasons with his current team),

Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips has veto rights to any agreed-upon trade. He's not bashful when it comes to exercising said

rights, either, because for the second straight year he's vetoed a potential trade.

This time around, the Reds' deal was with the Braves, reports Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. Rosenthal reports that this happened

back in November and the Braves' signing of Sean Rodriguez was being negotiated at the same time (simply: The Braves were

likely to grab one or the other and Phillips made the decision easy).

Again, this is the second straight offseason Phillips has vetoed a deal, but he actually did so twice last offseason: Once to the

Nationals -- and they signed Daniel Murphy afterward -- and once to the Diamondbacks.

Phillips, 35, has one year and $14 million left on his six-year, $72 million extension that he signed before the 2012 season. He's

gotten to the point where he doesn't have much, if any, value left for the Reds and yet they can't get rid of him.

Though a fan favorite through the Reds making the playoffs three of four years from 2010-13, the vetoes here might start to wear a

bit on the Cincy faithful as the club looks to get younger and move forward. Even if veteran shortstop Zack Cozart is traded, the

Reds need to see what they have at second base with Dilson Herrera (who came over from the Mets in the Jay Bruce trade) and Jose

Peraza. There's also post-hype utility man Arismendy Alcantara for depth.

Apparently, there's also going to be Phillips, because he's not getting an extension in a trade and the Reds surely aren't going to just

eat $14 million by releasing him.

ESPN.COM Report: Reds 2B Brandon Phillips vetoed November trade to Braves

12:55 AM ET

ESPN.com news services

Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips used his no-trade rights to block a deal to the Atlanta Braves in November,

according to a report by FoxSports.com.

Phillips, 35, has the right to reject a trade because of his 10-and-5 status, which players accrue with 10 years of major league

experience and five straight years with the same team.

His veto of the Braves deal marked the third time in the past two offseasons that he blocked a trade. Last year, Phillips rejected

trades to the Washington Nationals and Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Braves' deal with Phillips fell through while they were pursuing free-agent infielder Sean Rodriguez, who ultimately agreed to a

two-year, $11.5 million contract with Atlanta on Nov. 24.

Phillips signed a six-year, $72 million extension with Cincinnati before the 2012 season and has one year and $14 million left on his

current deal.

He hit .291 with 11 home runs and 64 RBIs in 141 games last season.

FOXSPORTS.COM Brandon Phillips blocked a trade from Cincinnati to Atlanta, sources say

Ken Rosenthal

Jan 5, 2017 at 9:26p ET

Even as Brandon Phillips faces a possible loss of playing time, he still is not ready to leave Cincinnati.

The Reds’ second baseman used his no-trade protection in November to block a trade to the Braves, according to major-league

sources.

The Braves tried to acquire Phillips at the same time they were in the process of signing free-agent infielder/outfielder Sean

Rodriguez, who agreed to a two-year, $11.5 million contract on Nov. 24.

The addition of Rodriguez, who figures to play often at second base, cooled the Braves on Phillips; the trade, in theory, is still

possible, but the talks are unlikely to revive, sources say.

It was the third time in the past two offseasons that Phillips, 35, invoked his right to reject a trade as a player with 10 years of major-

league service, five consecutively with the same team.

Last offseason, he blocked deals to the Nationals and Diamondbacks, then appeared in 141 games for the Reds, batting .291 with a

.736 OPS, his highest since 2012. His defensive runs saved at second base, however, was a career-low negative-9.

The Reds, in the middle of rebuilding, could reduce the playing time of both Phillips and shortstop Zack Cozart in favor of two

younger middle infielders, Jose Peraza and Dilson Herrera. Both veterans are entering their free-agent years, but the Reds also have

yet to find a taker for Cozart, who cannot block a trade.

Phillips will earn $14 million this season in the final year of his contract. The Reds would have paid a significant portion of that sum

to facilitate a deal and were surprised by Phillips’ rejection, sources say; Phillips is from Stone Mountain, Ga., and owns a home in

Atlanta.

Most players require some form of compensation to waive their no-trade rights, and Phillips reportedly sought an extension from the

Nationals last offseason. The talks between the Reds and Braves did not advance to that level, sources say; the Braves viewed

Phillips only as a one-year stopgap, and the Reds already were including money in the deal.

For Phillips, though, the issue is not simply money, sources say.

He considers his refusal to accept a deal to be a matter of principle, and would want the team to address certain, unspecified issues

before waiving his no-trade protection, sources say.

Phillips signed a six-year, $72.5 million extension with the Reds in April 2012 when he likely could have earned more as a free

agent. At the club’s behest, he has been active in the Cincinnati community and become a fan favorite.

Yet, the relationship between Phillips and the club will only grow more uncomfortable if he continues balking at proposed trades.

The Reds could open the season with all four of their middle infielders, provided that each stays healthy. The team’s focus,

however, is on 2018 and beyond.

Phillips as the everyday second baseman is not part of the club’s plan.

BASEBALL PROSPECTUS January 5, 2017

2017 Prospects

Cincinnati Reds Top 10 Prospects

by Jeffrey Paternostro and BP Prospect Staff

The State of the System: Cincinnati added a very nice name at the top with the second overall pick, but it was an up-and-down year

for the rest of the system. It lacks impact names past the top two, but it is a deep organization with some interesting 2017 breakout

candidates.

The Top Ten

3B Nick Senzel

LHP Amir Garrett

LF Jesse Winker

RHP Robert Stephenson

C Tyler Stephenson

OF Taylor Trammell

OF Aristides Aquino

RHP Antonio Santillan

2B Shedric Long

RHP Ian Kahaloa

The Big Question: How long should a rebuild take?

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Top 30 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds

by Eric Longenhagen - January 5, 2017

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the Cincinnati Reds farm system. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided

by industry sources as well as from my own observations. The KATOH statistical projections, probable-outcome graphs, and

(further down) Mahalanobis comps have been provided by Chris Mitchell. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by

which all of my prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future

Value, read this. -Eric Longenhagen

The KATOH projection system uses minor-league data and Baseball America prospect rankings to forecast future performance in

the major leagues. For each player, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for his first six years in the major leagues. There are

drawbacks to scouting the stat line, so take these projections with a grain of salt. Due to their purely objective nature, the projections

here can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated. Due to sample-size concerns, only players with at

least 200 minor-league plate appearances or batters faced last season have received projections. -Chris Mitchell

Reds Top Prospects

Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV

1 Nick Senzel 21 A 3B 2018 55

2 Amir Garrett 24 AAA LHP 2017 55

3 Jesse Winker 23 AAA OF 2017 50

4 Aristides Aquino 22 A+ OF 2019 50

5 Shedric Long 21 A+ 2B 2019 50

6 Taylor Trammell 19 R OF 2021 45

7 Robert Stephenson 23 MLB RHP 2017 45

8 Chris Okey 22 A C 2019 45

9 T.J. Friedl 21 R CF 2019 45

10 Tyler Stephenson 20 A C 2020 45

11 Alfredo Rodriguez 22 R SS 2018 45

12 Rookie Davis 23 AAA RHP 2018 45

13 Phil Ervin 24 AA OF 2017 45

14 Sal Romano 23 AA RHP 2018 45

15 Tyler Mahle 22 AA RHP 2018 45

16 Keury Mella 23 A+ RHP 2018 40

17 Ariel Hernandez 24 R RHP 2017 40

18 Sebastian Elizalde 25 AAA OF 2018 40

19 Vlad Gutierrez 21 R RHP 2019 40

20 Tony Santillan 19 A RHP 2020 40

21 Jimmy Herget 23 A+ RHP 2018 40

22 Blake Trahan 23 A+ SS 2019 40

23 Nick Travieso 22 AA RHP 2018 40

24 Ian Kahaloa 19 R RHP 2021 40

25 Juan Perez 25 R UTIL 2017 40

26 Josh VanMeter 21 AA UTIL 2018 40

27 Alex Blandino 24 AA 2B 2018 40

28 Tanner Rainey 24 A RHP 2018 40

29 Nick Hanson 18 R RHP 2022 40

30 Ryan Hendrix 22 A RHP 2019 40

55 FV Prospects

1. Nick Senzel, 3B

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Tennessee

Age 22 Height 6’1 Weight 205 Bat/Throw R/R

Tool Grades (Present/Future)

Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw

50/60 55/60 40/55 55/50 40/50 55/55

Relevant/Interesting Metrics

Dramatically increased ISO (.170 as a sophomore, .243 as junior) at University of Tennessee in 2016 and stole 25 bases at an 86%

clip.

Scouting Report

A young-for-the-class SEC hitter with a long track record of success, Senzel was the most polished bat available in the 2016 draft. I

saw him early in the year during a four-team round robin in Arizona and thought he’d go somewhere in the top 10-15 picks. While

facing pitching far beneath the quality of arms he’d see later in the year during SEC play, Senzel finished the weekend 8-for-13 with

four doubles, six walks, five of those on the final day of play. Despite my own enthusiasm, when a scout told me they thought he

had an outside shot at going 1-1, I scoffed. Senzel was drafted No. 2 overall by Cincy in June. There are probably a few reasons for

this, beyond a potential misevaluation of Senzel’s talent. Prospects ahead of Senzel on my board at that time (such as Jason Groome,

Delvin Perez, Alec Hansen) all saw their stocks dip for one reason or another during the spring, while Senzel continued to rake.

Moreover, he was one of the safest prospects in a draft class without huge, risk-worthy talent up top.

Senzel has above-average bat speed and bat control. His swing can get long at times and, despite simple hitting feet, his front foot

sometimes gets down late which causes the rest of his swing to be tardy, as well. He was getting that foot down earlier during

instructional league. He has above-average raw power, which should grow to plus as Senzel reaches physical maturity (he was only

20 on draft day and is well built), though it doesn’t play to that level in games because Senzel doesn’t incorporate his lower half into

his swing especially well. If Senzel reaches a point when it would be useful to alter some aspects of his swing to generate more

game power I think he’s athletic enough to make the adjustments.

Reports on Senzel’s defense as a sophomore were mixed. Scouts liked his athleticism and straight-line speed (he’s a 55 runner right

now and swiped 25 bags at Tennessee this year), but his feel for third and his first step weren’t great and his arm was just passable.

He was solid, if unspectacular, when I saw him this year. He charges balls in on the grass with comfort and authority, makes

accurate throws to first from awkward platforms and his hands are adequate, though not exceptionally soft. I could see his range

becoming an issue as the weight of age diminishes what is already a mediocre first step. I think he’s a future average defender at

third, but development at that position can be volatile, and I think there’s a chance he’s better than that.

I have Senzel projected as an above-average everyday player. If the defense or power progress beyond my projections (I think

there’s a chance for both), then he has a chance for stardom. Recent top college draftees have sprinted to the majors and, without

many talented obstacles in the big leagues or high minors impeding his progression, there’s a chance Senzel reaches the big leagues

next year. I think he exceeds rookie eligibility in 2018.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 3.7 WAR

Note from Eric: This is where Cody Reed slots into the system for me. He technically retained his rookie eligibility by 2.1 IP and

via a DL stint. Here is what I wrote about Reed at his time of call-up which I believe holds true despite his struggles this season.

2. Amir Garrett, LHP

Drafted: 22nd Round, 2011 from Henderson Int’l (NV)

Age 25 Height 6’5 Weight 210 Bat/Throw L/L


Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command

55/60 45/50 40/45 45/55 45/60


Steamer projects a 4.76 FIP in 2017.

Scouting Report

It’s rare to read positive musings in this space about a soon-to-be 25-year-old whose secondary stuff draws mixed reviews, but Amir

Garrett’s unique combination of size, athleticism and developmental background allow for continued projection as he enters his

mid-20s. Garrett juggled pro baseball with college hoops for two years (Steve Lavin gave him modest minutes off the bench at St.

John’s during the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons) before committing to baseball full time in 2014. He showed no ill effects after an

ample increase in workload that year and hasn’t spent any time on the disabled list in either of his two full pro seasons.

Garrett is a big, strong, well-proportioned, athletic lefty with a low-90s fastball that he’ll run up to 96. He had some outings this

year where things went completely awry and he’d walk a half-dozen hitters over the course of his start, but he generally repeats his

delivery and has a clean (albeit unexplosive) arm action. Long-limbed lefties with multi-sport backgrounds are late-bloomer

command candidates, and I think Garrett’s fastball/fastball command combination will end up being the most impressive aspect of

his skillset at maturity.


50 FV Prospects

3. Jesse Winker, OF

Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Olympia HS (FL)




55/70 40/40 30/40 40/30 40/45 45/45


Recorded just .082 ISO at Triple-A.

Scouting Report

It’s hard to know whether Winker’s power output from 2014 was a mirage caused by the arid, hitter-friendly climates of the Cal

League and Arizona Fall League or if he’s seen a downtick in power since then because of the multiple wrist injuries he’s suffered

over the last three seasons (one late in 2014 and another this year). If you assume the latter, then there’s a chance that Winker

eventually gets healthy and starts hitting for the type of power typically associated with corner-only outfield prospects. I’m not

willing to do that.

That’s not to say Winker can’t still be a valuable big leaguer without whacking out 20-plus homers every year. He’s an exceptional

natural hitter with great feel for the strike zone, good bat control, hand-eye, natural timing and a smooth, often leisurely all-fields

swing. I’m also fond of the way Winker talks about hitting. I have a future 70 on the hit tool.

Winker doesn’t really drive his wrists through contact and this, combined with just average bat speed, are why I think there’s not

much power in there. His bat path varies based on what’s appropriate for making contact with a given pitch (I’ve seen Winker

literally throw his bat at balls off the plate away that he’s already committed to swinging at just to make contact), which leads to

more ground balls and line drives than the kind of launch angles that lead to dingers. I expect only 12-15 homers from Winker on an

annual basis, but he should supplement that with gobs of doubles.

Does that profile in an outfield corner? Winker isn’t a great athlete, he’s a below-average runner, a fringe defender and his arm,

while passable in right, is not going to have runners dashing from first to third looking over their shoulders in anticipation of

hosedom. He’s essentially a bat-only prospect, albeit a very special one.

That doesn’t sound all that enticing until you see that Nick Markakis was able to keep his head above replacement-level waters this

year. I think that’s Winker’s absolute floor. I’m less concerned about the relatively demur collection of tools and more worried

about Winker’s injury resume, lack of athleticism and the way his body is going to age. He’s close to the big leagues but not without

some risk for those reasons. I dinged his future value a half grade because of that, but think on tools he’s an above-average regular

who has an outside chance to compete for some batting titles.


4. Aristides Aquino, OF

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republlic




30/45 60/70 40/60 45/40 40/50 60/60


Produced 61 extra-base hits in 2016.

Scouting Report

Back with a vengeance this year after understandably failing to hit through a fractured forearm in 2015, Aquino dominated the

pitcher-friendly Florida State League this year. He already has plus raw power and his frame still has room to add mass, and he

could whack out 25-plus homers at peak in the big leagues. Aquino has a tendency to drift onto his front foot before contact, leaving

him vulnerable against breaking stuff, but he still has the strength and bat speed to muscle balls out even if he doesn’t square them

up and he annihilates mistakes. There are concerns about Aquino’s aggressive approach and that his bat path results in too many

ground balls, but he’s got solid feel for the barrel and track pitches pretty well. Scouts are mixed regarding his hit-tool projection,

but I think there’s going to be so much power here that he could profile as an everyday right fielder (plus arm) even if he’s only ever

a 40 hitter.

Aquino is an average runner underway, but it takes him a while to reach top speed because of his size. He’s a below-average

defender right now, could be average at maturity.

You could argue that Aquino has the most upside in the system as a potential middle-of-the-order slugger. He is not without risk due

to his approach. He turns 23 in April and has yet to play above A-ball. If he hits upper-level pitching in 2017, he could be No. 1 on

this list next year.


5. Shedric Long, 2B

Drafted: 12th Round, 2013 from Jacksonville HS (AL)

Age 21 Height 5’10 Weight 175 Bat/Throw L/R



30/45 55/55 40/50 60/60 40/50 50/50


Had 11.3% walk rate and .176 ISO at Low-A in 2016. Also stole 21 bases in 25 attempts across two levels.

Scouting Report

A converted catcher, Long is a plus runner who has only played the infield for two seasons. He’s raw defensively (especially his

footwork) but improving. He’s twitchy, athletic, has great range, and should be average at second base with reps and an average

arm.

Long takes big, uppercut hacks and has a propensity to drift onto his front foot early, both of which leave him vulnerable to

strikeouts. His footwork is noisy and I’ve seen him ditch his leg kick with two strikes to try to be compact, but he didn’t look

comfortable with it and I think it robs Long of some power, which is the most appealing aspect of his profile.

He also has plus bat speed and a swing path that should allow him to get to his power regularly even he does swing and miss quite a

bit. He has above-average raw, pull-heavy power, though Long can also muscle balls out the other way. He makes a lot of really

hard contact and sprints for extra bases.

Many of the second-base prospects discussed in this series have been hit-before-power offensive prospects. Long is the first one I’ve

come across with the opposite. I think Long has a puncher’s chance to be an above-average regular. He hit well in the Florida State

League for the last month and a half of the season at age 20, is athletic, has good makeup, is likely to play a premium position and

has power.


45 FV Prospects

6. Taylor Trammell, OF

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Mt. Paran (GA)




20/40 40/55 20/50 70/70 40/55 40/40


Slashed .303/.374/.421 in Pioneer League after signing.

Scouting Report

Raw and explosive, Trammell hit well during his aggressive post-draft stint in the Pioneer League. He has the malleable physical

characteristics typically associated with multi-sport prep studs — Trammell was a dominant running back in high school — in his

legs, power projection and the potential to play a premium defensive position.

A plus-plus runner who stole 24 bases (77% success rate) in just over 60 games, Trammell clearly has the wheels to play a quality

center field, but his routes there are raw and his below -verage arm will push him to left field should he fail to progress as a defender

in center. He actually spent more time in left field in his 60 pro games than he did in center field, partly due to the presence of T.J.

Friedl and Jose Siri, who both also have the physical tools to play center. Trammell’s speed would also be an asset in left but a

move would mean more pressure on the bat, which is similarly raw.

While possessing some idea of the strike zone, his feel for hitting is undercooked and his quality of contact is inconsistent. He’ll

likely have to make some adjustments at some point and, when that time comes, it will be interesting to see if Cincinnati has him

prioritize contact (which might make him an intriguing leadoff option) or if they bet on the power projection and try to mold him

into the power/premium-defense type of player that’s becoming more popular. There’s obviously risk and uncertainty associated

with a developmental project like this but it’s hard to find players with this kind of upside as late in the draft as the Reds were able

to find Trammell.


7. Robert Stephenson, RHP

Drafted: 1st Round, 2011 from Alhambra HS (CA)



Fastball Curveball Changeup Command

60/60 40/45 50/60 40/45


Posted just 34.5% ground-ball rate and 18.8% HR/FB rate in 37 big-league innings.

Scouting Report

It was a rough year for Stephenson, who went the final four months of the season without a scoreless outing. His changeup has

passed his curveball as his most effective secondary weapon, with the latter at times lacking any modicum of depth and sometimes

grading out as a 30 on the scouting scale. Stephenson threw more of a splitter in high school and that grip was scrapped for a

straight change early in pro ball, but his change improved when the Reds allowed Stephenson to go back to something more closely

resembling his high-school grip. He still produces efforted velocity at the expense of command, with a fastball in the 90-97 mph

range that mostly sits 93-94 with a slightly above-average spin rate.

The curveball tilts in anywhere between 77-83 mph, acts like a slider and is best kept down and out of the zone as it doesn’t have

the movement to compete within it. Stephenson’s changeup bottoms out like a mid-80s splitter beneath the bats of both left- and

right-handed hitters and Stephenson maintains his fastball’s arm speed when he throws it. He’ll sometimes cut his change

(intentionally or otherwise), which can at times confuse PITCHf/x into thinking he’s throwing his breaking ball. The pitch is heavy

enough to induce weak, ground-ball contact in the zone, something none of Stephenson’s other offerings can do. I think the

changeup will be plus at maturity.

Stephenson used to sit 95-plus with big movement and touch 99 while showing flashes of a plus curveball. He wasn’t that guy in

2016. The command was already a potential barrier to a rotation spot and now repertoire depth might be as well. There is, of course,

always a chance Stephenson recaptures the stuff that once made him a potential No. 2 starter, though the command will need to

come for that, as well. I’m projecting Stephenson as a late-inning reliever, where I think his velocity would benefit from shorter

bursts of action. He could also be an inefficient No. 4 or 5.


8. Chris Okey, C

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Clemson




30/40 50/50 30/45 40/40 45/50 50/50


Slashed .339/.465/.611 at Clemson this past year.

Scouting Report

In what was a great year for college catching, Okey had perhaps the most well-rounded collection of tools with a terrific chance to

catch, hit and hit for some power, even if none of his tools are plus.

Okey played for Team USA four different times, once on the 16U team, 18U team and twice on the Collegiate National team. He

has terrific makeup and leadership qualities and was receptive to instruction from Reds coach Corky Miller during instructional

league. He has some swing-and-miss issues brought about by general stiffness and some noise in his hands that can cause his barrel

to get into the hitting zone late. Nonetheless, the combination of a good approach, pitch recognition and simplistic hitter’s footwork

should help mitigate what’s going on with the hands and allow Okey to get to his average power. Most of his meaningful contact

comes to his pull side, but Okey is capable of hitting to all fields.

Defensively, Okey is an average receiver with an average arm and fringe to average movement and blocking skills. He’s in excellent

physical shape, plays hard, has good awareness on the bases. I think Okey profiles as an average regular.


9. T.J. Friedl, CF

Signed: Undrafted Free Agent, 2016 from Nevada




40/55 45/50 30/40 70/70 50/60 45/45


Slashed .401/.494/.563 at Nevada.

Scouting Report

Some teams clearly didn’t know Friedl was draft eligible (the reasons for this are still unclear), while others claim to have known

but either objected to his asking price or didn’t think much of him. After scouts got a look at him this summer with Team USA and

discovered he was (a) really good and (b) eligible to be signed with whatever they had left in their draft pool, a small bidding war

ensued. The Reds signed Friedl to a deal that included a $735,000 bonus, the most ever for a domestic undrafted free agent.

Friedl is a plus-plus runner, posting times to first right around 4.0 seconds flat during instructional league. He has the speed and

athleticism for center field, though he played left field for Team USA and looked terrific there, as well. He has above-average bat

speed, loose, strong wrists that whip the bat through the zone and good hand-eye coordination. Friedl is also an exceptional bunter

and regularly bunts for hits. He has below-average game power, as his swing is more geared for contact than loft (though he will

turn on balls up and in).

The average center fielder hit .259/.324/.407 in 2016. I think that’s in play for Friedl and he has the speed to be plus in center field.

He has a fourth-outfielder floor and a chance to be an everyday player.

10. Tyler Stephenson, C

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Kennesaw Mtn HS (GA)




20/40 55/60 30/50 30/30 30/45 70/70


None. Lost all but 39 non-rehab games due to injuries.

Scouting Report

I’m not ready to give up on Stephenson, who had a lost 2016 due to a concussion and a wrist injury that required surgery at year’s

end. While those are both legitimate excuses for Stephenson’s struggles, they also add another shovel full of risk to the already

heaping mound associated with his profile.

Stephenson popped up a bit late during the 2015 draft process because he didn’t play much on the prep showcase circuit as a rising

senior. Scouts didn’t see him hitting against nor catching the elite pitchers in his class very often (which led to some uncertainty

about his ability to do those things) and, despite some issues with breaking balls early the following spring, Stephenson quelled

those concerns as the draft approached and was at one point a dark-horse candidate for its No. 1 overall selection.

At his best, Stephenson looked like a potentially solid-average defensive catcher with plus-plus pure arm strength and future plus

raw power into which he might sufficiently tap to hit near the middle of a big-league lineup. The Reds drafted him 13th overall and

had him skip the AZL despite his rawness (though it is worth noting that Stephenson was old for his class and turned 19 just a few

weeks after the draft) and sent him straight to the Pioneer League. He began his first full pro season in the Midwest League and

never got off the ground due to injury.

When scouts did see Stephenson in 2016, the reports weren’t great. The power and arm strength are still clearly present, but some of

the quick twitch that granted optimism about Stephenson’s defensive profile (you need to be pretty quick to catch in general, but

especially if you’re as large as Stephenson) was gone.

A lost year of development for a raw-for-his-age prospect is bad news and Stephenson added two significant injuries to a resume

already packed with risk. But his ceiling remains sky-high, perhaps as high as any player in this system, and I think that’s worthy of

patience.

11. Alfredo Rodriguez, SS

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba




30/40 40/40 20/35 60/60 50/60 50/55


None.

Scouting Report

The Reds were linked to Rodriguez for a long time, dating back to before the start of the 2016-2017 July 2nd period, during which

they signed him with a $7 million bonus. But Rodriguez’s patience (which had its own price) allowed the Reds to have a better

overall J2 class.

He’s an excellent athlete and plus runner which, together, make for a very entertaining and acrobatic brand of defense. Despite

possessing just an average arm, Rodriguez makes well-timed, accurate throws from all sorts of awkward platforms because he’s so

athletic and could be a plus defensive shortstop at maturity.

Offensively, Rodriguez has above-average bat speed and some bat control, but his swing doesn’t remain in the hitting zone for very

long. He swung and missed quite a bit during instructional league, but it had been quite a while since Rodriguez had gotten regular

game reps. Rodriguez had altered his footwork and was using a bigger leg kick by the end of instructional league, which I think was

better for his timing and might unlock more power than he showed in Cuba. I’ve ticked up my game-power projections for

Rodriguez compared to my July report as a result.

Rodriguez profiles as a glove-first, low-end regular or utility man. I think he’ll be the first player from his July 2nd class to debut in

the majors.

12. Rookie Davis, RHP

Drafted: 14th Round, 2011 from Dixon HS (NC)




55/55 55/60 40/45 50/55


Recorded 15% strikeout rate at Double-A this year after posting 25% mark at High-A (with Yankees system) in 2015.

Scouting Report

Davis is a physical beast and a sneaky athlete (he was committed to play both ways at ECU before signing an over slot deal in 2011

with New York) who repeats his delivery well and fills up the strike zone with a well-angled, low-90s fastball. He was acquired by

Cincinnati after a breakout year in 2015 in the deal that sent Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees. New York seems to be able to

conjure pitching prospects out of thin air these days and Davis was touching roughly 95 at peak in 2015. This year, he was more

consistently 90-92 with plane and some movement and his strikeout rate dipped. Scouts who saw him each of the last two years

don’t see quite the same arm speed they did in 2015.

But Davis’ fastball still plays as average and his best pitch is an above-average curveball that he buries beneath the bats of both left-

and right-handed hitters. His changeup is below average but the fastball/curveball/command combination should be enough for

Davis to pitch at the back of a rotation and eat a ton of innings thanks to his physicality and efficient strike-throwing ability.


13. Phil Ervin, OF

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Samford




30/40 55/55 30/45 55/50 40/50 60/60


Produced 13% walk rate, .160 ISO in 2016.

Scouting Report

At Samford, Ervin was toolsy, physical beast with big raw power and straight-line speed but very little feel to hit and a small-school

pedigree. His lack of bat control and the general stiffness in his swing make it hard for him to make quality contact, and he hits lots

of pop ups and weak fly balls. His breaking-ball recognition and patience help him hunt pitches he can drive, but Ervin doesn’t

square much up. He has above-average raw power but hasn’t slugged above .400 for a pro season since 2013, when he was a college

draftee playing mostly in the Pioneer League.

The body is maxed out and Ervin is 24 so probably no power projection left here. He’s an above-average runner and saw some time

in center field this year but doesn’t have the speed to play there regularly.

If Ervin can find a way to tap into that power more consistently, then he’ll be a big leaguer. I think it’s likely to be as the smaller

half of a corner-outfield platoon.


14. Sal Romano, RHP

Drafted: 23rd Round, 2011 from Southington HS (CT)



Fastball Slider Changeup Command

70/70 55/55 40/45 50/55


Recorded strikeout and walk rates of 22% and 5%, respectively, in 2016.

Scouting Report

A massive righty with a heavy, downhill mid-90s fastball in the 93-96 range (that will touch 98), Romano also has a sharp, slightly

above-average slider that’s he learned to locate consistently to his glove side. Romano’s command improved in 2016 and he throws

more than enough strikes to continue to start, though some look at his long arm action, the visible effort in his upper back during

delivery, and wonder if eventually he’ll need to move to the bullpen where he’d probably be touching 100. His changeup is behind,

too, but he’s improved his slider and command somewhat late during development (huge, northeastern body so not really surprising)

and has an idea how to use his slider against lefties.

I think there’s a chance Romano makes it as a No. 4 or 5 starter. If not, the fallback option could be the ninth inning.


15. Tyler Mahle, RHP

Drafted: 7th Round, 2013 from Westminster HS (CA)




40/45 50/50 50/55 50/60


Recorded strikeout and walk rates of 21% and 7%, respectively, in 2016.

Scouting Report

Mahle is a well-built strike-thrower with potential plus command and an above-average changeup, but his lack of fastball velocity

(lots of 87-92 without a much movement this year, though he’ll show you 94) and the way the pitch plays down against lefties, who

see it early out of his hand, cloud his profile. He has an average, slurvy breaking ball that he can bury beneath the strike zone, but it

doesn’t play well in it on pure stuff. Some right-handed hitters have trouble picking the ball up out of Mahle’s hand because of the

way he cuts himself off during his delivery and throws across his body.

There’s enough here to mitigate some of Mahle’s issues (the deception vs righties, the changeup against lefties) but Double-A

hitters took a liking to his fastball last year and the flashes of pinpoint command he’s shown will need to become a regular thing as

he continues to develop. He turned 22 in September and still has some room on his frame, which might mean a tick more velo. I

think Mahle profiles as a No. 5 starter, but the ceiling is probably a half grade better than that if he can somehow squeeze more out

of the fastball.


40 FV Prospects

16. Keury Mella, RHP

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic




55/60 55/60 45/50 40/45


Allowed just single run — and recorded 6:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio — over 7.0 innings in lone appearance at Triple-A.

Scouting Report

Mella has a physical starter’s body and delivery (despite the way he throws across his body) and the chance to develop a mid-

rotation starter’s repertoire, but he’s a fringe athlete, 23 years old, had a tough time missing bats in A-ball this year and his control is

well below average.

I’ve seen Mella touch 98, but he’s mostly 90-95 during his starts with some late wiggle. His curveball flashes plus and has the depth

and bite to miss bats in the strike zone, as well as beneath it. His changeup is fringey but Mella has a good, loose arm action, and I

think it could be an average change at peak. His delivery isn’t especially violent, he just doesn’t repeat it well, and Mella isn’t the

kind of athlete who merits much more command projection. I think it’s worth continuing to give Mella looks as a starter simply

because he has a better chance of figuring it out than many of the other likely relievers in this system (strap in, there are 10). If he

does, he’s a solid No. 4 or 5 starter or maybe even an effective multi-inning reliever. Mella’s velo has ticked up in shorter outings in

the past and moving him to the bullpen could allow him to sit 94 or better with a plus curveball and average change. I think that

would be pretty interesting for a few innings at a time and allow more margin for error on the command.


17. Ariel Hernandez, RHP

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2008 from Dominican Republic



Fastball Curveball Command

60/60 70/70 30/40


Recorded 74 strikeouts, 39 walks in 62 innings.

Scouting Report

Hernandez was a lost cause who couldn’t get out of the Giants’ complex in Scottsdale the first half decade of his career and was

released. The Diamondbacks (who scout the Indy Leagues hard) saw him in the Frontier League and signed him but didn’t protect

him in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft that winter and lost him to the Reds.

Hernandez sat 95-98 for me during instructional league but has touched 100 in the past. The fastball plays down against lefties, who

can pick it up early out of his hand due to a low arm angle. His “curveball” (it’s a slider) is comfortably plus and flashes better than

that with late-biting two-plane movement. I’ve seen it tilt in between 85-87 mph and it is quite vicious.

Hernandez has 30 control and won’t pitch for very long in the big leagues without significantly improving his ability to throw

strikes. Even during a dominant final few weeks of the season, Hernandez walked 10 over 15 innings. He’s 24 and hasn’t pitched

above A-ball, but if Hernandez learns to harness his stuff he’s going to pitch at the back of a big-league bullpen. He was added to

the Reds’ 40 man ahead of the Rule 5 deadline and should debut in the big leagues next year if for no other reason than for the Reds

to see what they have here.


18. Sebastian Elizalde, OF

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Mexico




45/55 45/45 30/40 50/50 40/45 55/55


Slashed .297/.324/.387 at Double-A in 2016.

Scouting Report

Elizalde continues to hit as he climbs to the upper levels of the minors, this time through a full year at Double-A. He’s lost what was

once fringe speed for center field and now fits best in right, where his arm still profiles despite having required Tommy John in

2013. Elizalde has great bat control, hand-eye, makes all-fields contact and hits with a quiet grace and comfort. He lacks corner-

worthy power, though, and really only generates home-run pop on balls down and in, which he golfs out. I think the bat is strong

enough to make him a big leaguer in some capacity, perhaps as the bigger half of a platoon with Phil Ervin, but there isn’t enough

power for everyday duty.


19. Vlad Gutierrez, RHP

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba




55/60 50/60 40/45 40/50


None.

Scouting Report

Gutierrez was in the U.S. and cleared by OFAC and MLB for quite a while before he ultimately inked a deal with the Reds for $4.75

million. He was throwing for scouts in workouts and at spring-training complexes while stateside, allowing them to check on on his

sometimes inconsistent stuff. Gutierrez was constantly tinkering with his delivery during this time, a sign that he’s athletic enough

to make adjustments when he’s asked but also an indication that he had a difficult time finding something with which he felt

comfortable. He struggles with timing aspects of his mechanics, can sometimes become too horizontally rotational and land way off

line to the plate, and not all scouts loved his arm action.

But Gutierrez does two things that you really can’t teach: throw hard and spin a breaking ball. He’ll touch 97 but sat mostly 90-94 in

workouts and has an above-average, sweeping curveball. The changeup and command are not only both behind but especially hard

to project because he hasn’t had many in-game reps to hone either of them, and that arm action isn’t changeup-friendly. He didn’t

pitch during games in instructional league and only threw bullpens, as Cincy prioritized a strength program (something with which

most Cuban pitchers have little experience prior to signing) to build up even strength in his shoulders and hopefully avoid some of

the health issues with which Raisel Iglesias has dealt.

The fastball/curveball combination are enough to make Gutierrez a solid bullpen piece, but the ceiling is higher than that (perhaps

significantly so) if either or both of the changeup and command develop. There are a lot of unknown variables here though,

especially for a 21-year-old.

20. Tony Santillan, RHP

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Seguin HS (TX)




70/70 55/60 40/45 30/40


Recorded 84 strikeouts in 69 innings.

Scouting Report

Santillan’s control looked like it had taken a step forward during extended spring training after he and his upper-90s fastball were

dangerously wild late last summer in the AZL. But his strike-throwing regressed late in the year after a promotion to the Midwest

League and he walked 24 hitters in 30 innings to close out the season.

There’s a good chance Santillan ends up in the bullpen, where his fastball, which tops out around 99, and potentially plus mid-80s

slider are the kind stereotypically found in high-leverage innings. He has a big, sturdy body and his arm works well, but I fear the

yawning chasm between where his control is and where it will need to be for Santillan to remain a starter is too large to bridge.


21. Jimmy Herget, RHP

Drafted: 6th Round, 2015 from South Florida




55/55 55/60 45/50 45/55


Held lefties to .613 OPS despite low arm slot.

Scouting Report

Herget might be the most entertaining arm in the entire system. The side-arming, rec-spec-wearing Herget pitches at 92-96 with his

deceptive, moving fastball which he regularly throws for strikes. He complements it with an above-average slider and infrequent

changeup. He deals with lefties by back-dooring the slider, throwing the changeup more frequently and significantly altering the

timing of his delivery. I think his stuff has a chance to play in late innings against hitters from both sides. The deception will

probably have less of an impact on hitters as he moves up, but there’s an outside chance he pitches in the eighth inning or later.


22. Blake Trahan, SS

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from LA-Lafayette




40/50 40/40 30/30 55/55 50/50 60/60


Stole 25 bases (with 76% success rate) in 2016.

Scouting Report

Trahan lit up the Sun Belt all three years he was at Louisiana-Lafayette, walking more than he K’d in each of his three seasons and

stealing 45 bases during his career without being caught a single time. The Reds have smoothed out some of the noise in his hands

during his setup, which has helped him continue to put the ball in play so far as a pro, but he lacks power and only profiles as a

singles/doubles hitter that hits near the bottom of a big-league lineup.

Some think there’s enough in the bat to allow Trahan to profile as a low-end everyday shortstop. He’s fine at short defensively with

passable range, actions and a plus arm, and he’s one of those high-effort players who gets the most out of his tools. I find the power

output too suspect for him to yield everyday value and consider him more of a utility prospect.


23. Nick Travieso, RHP

Drafted: 1st Round, 2012 from Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL)




55/60 55/55 45/50 40/40


Conceded 53 walks in 117 innings.

Scouting Report

A below-average athlete who struggles to repeat his delivery, Travieso projects as a reliever for me despite having developed an

admirable changeup over the last two seasons.

Once a power fastball/slider righty who was touching 97-plus with his fastball, Travieso now sits more in the 92-94 range and will

occasionally show scouts 95 or 96 with downhill plane. He has below-average command. His mid-80s slider is above average and

he sells his changeup, which has modest fade, by mimicking his fastball’s arm speed.

Travieso’s delivery has some effort to it, but it isn’t ultraviolent or inherently wild; he just doesn’t repeat well because he’s not a

great athlete. He has No. 4 starter stuff but I think the strike-throwing issues move him to relief, where the fastball velo might tick

up.


24. Ian Kahaloa, RHP

Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Cmpbell HS (HI)




55/60 50/55 40/50 30/50


None. Was 18-year-old in Rookie ball.

Scouting Report

Up to 96 with downhill plane, Kahaloa has issues repeating his arm slot and works up in the strike zone a little too often. He has an

average curveball that flashes above and the arm acceleration and athleticism to develop an average changeup down the road. He’s a

potential No. 4 starter but is eons from the big leagues and has some current command issues (though he’s athletic enough to iron

those out). Kahaloa only turned 19 in October but has some on-field maturity issues, at times getting visibly frustrated with his

teammates for defensive mistakes. Kahaloa also tweeted about his forearm being “fucked” after he was removed from a start in

September due to injury. These are minor elements of risk compared to the fact that he’s very young, raw and a bit undersized.


25. Juan Perez, UTIL

Drafted: 26th Round, 2011 from College of the Canyons




40/50 30/30 20/30 55/55 45/50 50/50


Slashed .276/.310/.444 at Triple-A in 2016.

Scouting Report

Perez profiles as a pull-only, light-hitting utility man who is passable at short (doesn’t have the arm to play there every day) and in

center field (not going to supplant Hamilton, though) but who lacks the power to play every day at second base, which is his most

natural defensive fit. He also played left field in 2016 and has experience at third base. His defensive versatility and solid bat-to-ball

skills should allow for some big-league value.


26. Josh VanMeter, UTIL

Drafted: 5th Round, 2013 from Norwell HS (IN)




45/60 35/40 30/40 40/40 40/45 45/45


Walked in 12% of plate appearances at High-A in 2016.

Scouting Report

VanMeter has a selective approach and great bat-to-ball skills. I think he’ll be a plus hitter at maturity. He has 40 raw power.

VanMeter spent much of 2016 at third base — and he’s played there a lot during Fall League — but he doesn’t have enough arm

strength for the left side of the infield and projects as more of a second-base/left-field bench bat because there isn’t enough power

here to play every day at those positions.


27. Alex Blandino, 2B

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Stanford




40/50 45/45 30/40 40/40 45/50 50/50


Was hitting .295/.372/.428 in 72 games prior to fracturing finger in 2015. Hit .228/.327/.370 after returning in 2015 and

.232/.335/.337 this past season.

Scouting Report

Blandino’s sweet right-handed swing, bat control and timing look like they belong to a future plus hitter, but he struggled with

Double-A pitching this year (as he did in a cup of coffee there in 2015) and looked overmatched by good velocity in the 2015 Fall

League. He still has an excellent feel for the strike zone, as he did in college, and can hit the ball to all fields, but the bat speed drew

mixed reviews from scouts with whom I spoke.

Slightly built and without much, if any, physical projection, Blandino was never likely to hit for the sort of game power that profiles

at second or third base, and he doesn’t have the athleticism or range for short. His most likely path to playing time was simply to hit

so much that his below-average game power didn’t matter. But Blandino hasn’t hit since returning from a finger fracture in July of

last year and, suddenly, what was once the foundation of his prospect status is questionable.


28. Tanner Rainey, RHP

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from West Alabama




60/70 55/60 40/40 35/40


Struck out 20 batters in 12.1 innings after moving to bullpen.

Scouting Report

Rainey was a pure reliever at West Alabama. (It allowed him to play both ways, and he hit 19 homers as a senior and slugged .842.

Seriously.) Nevertheless, the Reds ran him out as a starter this year to see if his athleticism would allow for quick development of

his changeup and command. It did not, and Rainey struggled until moving into the bullpen for the last few weeks of the season. He

dominated there, with his fastball reaching 98 and his curveball flashing plus. That two-pitch combination could play toward the

back of a bullpen and Rainey could move quickly. He just turned 24 and hasn’t pitched above Low-A, but he could rocket to the big

leagues next year if just allowed to air it out in the bullpen.


29. Nick Hanson, RHP Video

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Prior Lake HS (MN)




60/70 40/45 40/50 30/45


None. Has thrown just 16 pro innings.

Scouting Report

A huge, projectable right-handed prep arm who was 93-96 during instructional league, Hanson’s also has a pretty short arm action

for a pitcher his size and had trouble getting on top of his curveball as an amateur. It was more slurvy and two-planed during

instructs and it’s possible changes are being made. His best secondary right now is a deceptive changeup in the upper 80s that gets

swings and misses in the dirt like a splitter. Both are below average right now.

Hanson is a long-term project and might never develop the repertoire depth and command to start, but he has late-bloomer traits at

his size and geographical background. He’s a low-level lottery ticket with rotation upside.

30. Ryan Hendrix, RHP

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Texas A&M




55/60 50/60 40/40 40/40


Recorded 31 strikeouts in 26.2 innings.

Scouting Report

A pure relief prospect with closing experience whose stock was trending down after a dominant sophomore year, Hendrix was 92-

95 for me during instructional league and flashing a plus curveball in the 92-95 mph range, though it was often fringey. The

breaking ball is much more effective down and out of the zone than within it. I don’t think the stuff is explosive enough to close, but

it should play in middle relief, at least — with a chance for a bit more than that — if the 96-98 mph fastball Hendrix flashed at times

in college returns.

*****

Noteworthy Mahalanobis Comps for 40+ FV Prospects

Rk Name Most Noteworthy Comp

1 Nick Senzel David Wright

2 Amir Garrett Cal Eldred

3 Jesse Winker Darin Erstad

4 Aristides Aquino Rob Butler

5 Shedric Long Michael Young

6 Taylor Trammell Ruben Rivera

7 Robert Stephenson Pat Mahomes

8 Chris Okey Mike Napoli

12 Rookie Davis Brian Moehler

13 Phil Ervin Reed Johnson

14 Sal Romano John Lackey

15 Tyler Mahle Jarrod Washburn

16 Keury Mella Josh Towers

17 Ariel Hernandez Randy Wells

18 Sebastian Elizalde Jeff Frazier

20 Tony Santillan Matt Harrison

21 Jimmy Herget Randy Wells

22 Blake Trahan Jed Lowrie

23 Nick Travieso Travis Wood

24 Ian Kahaloa Glendon Rusch

25 Juan Perez F.P. Santangelo

26 Josh VanMeter Orlando Hudson

27 Alex Blandino Kevin Melillo

28 Tanner Rainey Les Walrond

*****

Other Prospects of Note (In Order of Preference)

Michael Beltre, OF, 0.8 KATOH+ WAR – Beltre has shown a great deal of progression since his stateside debut in 2015. He’s

bigger, stronger, hitting for more power and more consistently making hard contact. He’s an above-average runner and probably not

fast enough for center. I think he’s going to hit and have more gap-to-gap power rather than hit home runs, which may not profile in

a corner.

Jose Siri, OF, 0.1 KATOH+ – Siri has big tools and a traditional right-field profile despite a small frame. He has above-average raw

power and arm strength and is a plus runner but has huge swing-and-miss issues. Reports on the makeup are not glowing. He has an

everyday player ceiling but represents extreme risk.

Zach Vincej, UTIL, 0.6 KATOH+ – Vincej is a fundamentally sound defensive shortstop without the speed (he’s a 40 runner) to

play there regularly. He had a good six weeks of Fall League but Double-A pitchers got to see him for the second year in a row and

began to recognize his lack of power and attack the strike zone accordingly.

Max Wotell, LHP – Acquired along with Dilson Herrera from New York in the Jay Bruce deal, Wotell is a slightly built young lefty

whose fastball will touch 94 and sit in the low 90s during extended outings. He has excellent curveball feel and the pitch could be

plus at peak. His size, potential platoon issues (it’s a low slot, long arm action) and the effort in the delivery make him a likely

reliever, to say nothing of his current control issues. He hasn’t pitched above Rookie ball.

Carlton Daal, SS – Daal barely played in 2016 due to three separate stints on the DL with injuries that included a concussion and a

shoulder strain. He has spent significant time on the shelf with injury during each of the last three seasons. That’s robbed Daal of the

in-game at-bats he needs to develop an acceptable offensive profile. His swing is long and his quality of contact is poor, with most

of his ability to get on base reliant upon his solid bat control and plus speed. He’s an explosive defender and has a higher defensive

ceiling than Trahan and (some would argue) Rodriguez, but his issues with the bat are a significant barrier.

Brandon Dixon, DH, 0.6 KATOH+ – Dixon’s power on contact is incredible and he laid waste to the Arizona Fall League for a

second straight year. Despite above-average straight-line speed, he has no position. His feel for defense is poor and has been at

every spot he’s played (everywhere but catcher and shortstop) in four pro seasons. Additionally, Dixon’s approach is overaggressive

and his swing has some inherent swing and miss, two things that magnify Dixon’s inability to reach base. He’s interesting because

of the power, but it’s hard to find a big-league role for a player like this.

Stuart Turner, C, 1.1 KATOH+ – Turner is an above-average defensive catcher with an average arm. His approach at the plate is

compact and simple. He profiles as a backup catcher who hits an empty .260.

Jon Moscot, RHP, 0.9 KATOH+ – Moscot features an 88-92 mph fastball, below-average spin rate, average slider, fringe curveball

and change. Up-and-down depth arm.

Tejay Antone, RHP, 3.2 KATOH+ – Throwing a low-90s fastball with movement, curveball that flashes above average, and

changeup below that, Anton also varies his delivery’s timing to mess with hitters and throws plenty of strikes. The lack of repertoire

depth makes him more of an up-and-down or potential relief arm.

Wennigton Romero, LHP, 2.2 KATOH+ – Romero sits 88-92 with good curveball feel, very little physical projection, long arm

action but able to locate. Potential back-end starter for me.

Ismael Guillon, LHP, 2.1 KATOH+ – A changeup artist with a fastball that mostly sits 91-94, Guillon lacks a viable breaking ball.

Alejandro Chacin, RHP, 0.8 KATOH+ – Chacin throws a low- to mid-90s fastball and average slider that could work in middle

relief as both play up, due to arm slot, against righties.

Andrew Jordan, RHP, 1.7 KATOH+ – Jordan features a fringe fastball that was whacked in the Pioneer League but has also exhibits

good feel for an above-average slider. Relief potential.

Taylor Sparks, 3B, 0.2 KATOH+ – Sparks had an interesting raw power/speed/glove combination at UC-Irvine, but his swing-and-

miss issues have followed him to pro ball. He’s often late on hittable pitches and pushes weak contact the other way. Sparks turns

24 when the season starts and had trouble keeping his batting average above the Mendoza line at Double-A last year. His raw power

is still interesting, but at this point I find it very unlikely that he hits enough to get to it.

Tony Renda, 2B, 3.7 KATOH+ – Renda’s a bat-first low-end utility man who can’t play a premium position and has no game

power. Ryan Theriot was a statistical comp.

Moises Nova, RHP, 0.5 KATOH+ – Nova’s an unathletic righty with a fringe breaking ball, but was touching 96 for me during

extended and has some breaking-ball feel.

Gavin LaValley, 1B, 0.6 KATOH+ – He features a good feel to hit, lacks power for first base and the body won’t allow him to play

anywhere else.

Nick Howard, RHP – Howard has a first-rounder’s pedigree and was once pitching with a heavy, low-90s fastball and potential plus

breaking ball. The pitcher we saw in 2016 (31 walks in 20 innings) was not a prospect and we just have to be patient and see how

things look in the spring.

Cistulli’s Guy

Selected by Carson Cistulli from any player who received less than a 40 FV.

Angelo Gumbs, OF, 0.2 KATOH+

A second-round pick by the Yankees out of a California high school in 2010, Gumbs was a legitimate prospect for a while, reaching

the High-A Florida State League during just his age-20 season. A combination of injury and ineffectiveness, however, compelled

New York to release him last winter. The Reds signed him and, at age 23, he played the entire season in the High-A Florida State

League.

When a player is forced to repeat a minor-league level, that can represent a developmental warning flag. When he’s forced to

fourpeat a level, that indicates that his prospects for future employment have probably become irredeemably obscure. But Gumbs

was a much different hitter in 2016. Regard, by way of example, the following table.

Angelo Gumbs, 2011-16

Season Team Age PA K%

2011 Yankees (A-) 18 220 25.9%

2012 Yankees (A) 19 278 21.6%

2013 Yankees (A) 20 218 25.2%

2014 Yankees (A+) 21 354 27.4%

2015 Yankees (A+) 22 202 22.3%

2016 Reds (A+) 23 403 11.9%

Includes every level at which Gumbs recorded 200-plus plate appearances.

As part of the Cincinnati system, Gumbs produced the lowest strikeout rate of his career by roughly 10 points in a substantive

sample of plate appearances. This sort of improvement is unusual — and, in light of Gumbs’ pedigree and relative youth, notable.

He’s confined to a corner-outfield spot and would appear to lack some of the athleticism that rendered him a prospect originally. But

his case at least merits attention.

*****

System Overview

This is an excellent system despite a lack of star power up top because it’s extremely deep with a healthy middle class of likely big-

league contributors. This club had a good draft and added two of the bigger name international free agents available while stumbling

into T.J. Friedl, who fits in snugly in a system with quite a bit of up-the-middle talent. In addition to the three catchers listed above,

Jake Turnbull, Pabel Manzanero and Ryan Cassidy-Brown are all potential backups. This system is also full of more plus fastballs

than I’ve overviewed here. Dauri Moreta was up to 95 with an average changeup for me during instructs for God’s sake. One of

those guys might pop up next year. The Reds will have the chance to add to the top of this list with the draft’s No. 2 overall pick. I

expect the top of the draft to be dense with college pitching but Jeren Kendall and Hunter Greene are probably coming off the board

up top, as well.

TRANSACTIONS 01/05/17

LHP Elvis Araujo elected free agency.

Los Angeles Angels sent Ji-Man Choi outright to Salt Lake Bees.

Cleveland Indians signed free agent DH Edwin Encarnacion.

Cleveland Indians designated LHP Edwin Escobar for assignment.

Texas Rangers signed free agent RHP Jaye Chapman to a minor league contract.

Texas Rangers signed free agent C Steven Lerud to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training.

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