17
CCS and Climate
CCS and Climate
Do We Need CCS?
• Climate protection is impossible with current emission trends.
• Global coal investments will lock in high cumulative carbon emissions.
• “Clean” energy investments are a fraction of likely needs.
• CCS and biomass as an emergency brake.
U.S. & China Total 43% Of Global Cumulative Emissions 2005-2030
Source: IEA, WEO 2007
Billion Tonnes CO2
512
225
167
57%
18%
25%
China
U.S.
Rest of World
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:
Primary Coal Demand by Region
China & India account for 78% of the growth of coal use in power generation and 91% of the growth in other sectors
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2005 2030 2005 2030
Mto
eTEOther OECDEU27JapanUSOther DCIndiaChina
Power generation Other
Global New Coal Build
0
500
1000
1500
GW
Coa
l
Other Developing 43 90
India 57 135
China 383 363
Transition 5 30
OECD 165 398
2005-2015 2016-2030
Source: IEA,WEO 2006
684
1041
Incremental new coal capacity
New Coal Plant Emissions 26% Greater than All Historic Coal CO2
180143
0
50
100
150
200
1751-2000 Total Coal
New Coal Plants Lifetime Emissions
Billion tonnes Carbon
Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, and WEO 2006
34% of remaining budget for 450 ppm
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Stations built prior to 2015 in China & India
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
2006 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075
milli
on to
nnes
of C
O2
Existing power plants Power plants built in 2005-2015
Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology & largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario: Power Generation Capacity Additions in China, 2006-2030
Most of the increase in coal demand comes from power generation
7%
0.2%
2%
15%
6%
70%
CoalOilGasNuclearHydroRest of renewables
1 312 GW
NRDC White Paper
• NRDC White Paper—compendium of work by Chinese Academy of Sciences, US Pacific Northwest National Lab,Tsinghua and Princeton Universities, and WRI.
• Available at https://www.nrdc.org/international/chinaccs/default.asp
Chinese Sources & SinksOver 1600 large CO2 point sources
CO2 emissions of 3.9Gt/ year
Power Sector Dominates
But Many Large Industrial Sources
• Nearly 400 high concentration sources
• Nearly 200 million tons CO2 production– 43 Coal to Methanol– 12 Ammonia– 2 Coal to liquid transport fuel
• Capture costs much lower for these sources
Sinks Near Large Sources
Sinks Near Large Sources
• > half of the 1600 large sources directly above potential storage formations
• 80% within 80km of sites• Reduces transport costs. Perhaps
$10/tonne of CO2.
Potential CCS Pilots
• Daqing and Jiling oil fields• Jiangyou gas fields• GreenGen IGCC• Langfang IGCC• Donggaun Taiyangzhou IGCC• Shenua Direct Coal Liquefaction
Needs/Recommendations
• CCS regulatory framework• Direct western involvement in
Chinese CCS demos• Tech transfer and joint R&D• Monitoring and verification• Incentives for CCS as part of low-
carbon portfolio
Carbon “Game” has Different Rules
Unlike economic growth, the carbon budget cannot be expanded indefinitely.
Emitting more carbon than your neighbor is not a recipe for success.
China and U.S. have mutual strategic interest in helping each other to minimize carbon emissions.
Success by one country helps all countries.
