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Click to add title CCS in an Uncertain Policy Landscape Jim Watson, Research Director UKCCSRC Biannual Meeting, Cambridge, 2-3 April 2014
Click to add title
CCS in an Uncertain Policy Landscape
Jim Watson, Research Director
UKCCSRC Biannual Meeting, Cambridge, 2-3 April 2014
Uncertain political context
‘We need to cut our energy costs. We’re going to do this by investing in new sources of energy: new nuclear power, renewables, and a shale gas revolution. We’re going to do this by promoting energy efficiency.’
George Osborne MP, Budget Speech, March 2014
Uncertain political context
Our energy security is best served by minimising our exposure to the volatile global fossil fuel markets, enhancing our energy efficiency and maximising home-grown low carbon energy, as well as cleaner indigenous reserves, such as natural gas, to help ease the low carbon transition.
Ed Davey MP, Secretary of State for Energy & Climate Change, Mar 2014
Uncertain political context
Click to add title UKERC flagship project: Energy strategies under uncertainty
Aims: To generate, synthesise and communicate evidence about
the range and nature of the risks and uncertainties facing UK energy policy and the achievement policy goals
To identify strategies for mitigating risks and managing uncertainties for public policy and the private sector
3. Innovation systems & development
Analysis using the CCC’s revised 4th carbon budget pathway to 2030 as a point of reference
Methods for appraising uncertainty Detailed focus on CCC pathway
elements: e.g. heat, power generation, electric vehicles
Analysis of systemic drivers and impacts: natural resources, public attitudes and ecosystem services
Includes engagement with ‘alternative’ higher carbon pathway
Energy strategies under uncertainty
Energy strategies under uncertainty
Keep the lights on & bills down at the
same time
Source: Committee on Climate
Power sector decarbonisation
6. TPA
Tech costs too
high Lack of tech
progress
Wrong type of capital
Lack of capital
Uncertainties & Power Sector Decarbonisation
Click to add title Investment uncertainties
Click to add title Technology cost uncertainties
2006 ranges from 2006 UK Energy White paper 2011 ranges from Arup 2011 and Parsons Brinckerhoff 2011
Power sector decarbonisation
6. TPA
Bio-energy
resources
Public attitudes
Tech costs too
high Lack of tech
progress
Wrong type of capital
Lack of capital
Policy and
politics
Uncertainties & Power Sector Decarbonisation
Eco-system services
Click to add title Public attitudes and values Public attitudes often framed very narrowly by expert debates: on ‘acceptance’ of specific technical options Publics often pragmatic about change, but unlikely to settle for change out of line with longer-term trajectories that reflect their underlying values. Beware of potential ‘non transitions’: continued fossil fuel use, carbon capture and storage and bio-energy If public values not included in decision-making and new ‘social contract’ for change, resistance to energy system transformations or specific conflicts more likely
Power sector decarbonisation
6. TPA
Bio-energy
resources
EV Effective-
ness
Heat pump
effective-ness
Public attitudes
Tech costs too
high Lack of tech
progress
Wrong type of capital
Lack of capital
Policy and
politics
Transport and heat decarbonisation
Uncertainties & Power Sector Decarbonisation
Eco-system services
Heat sector decarbonisation
Transport sector decarbonisation
Power grid con-straints
Heat pump costs; per-
formance
Electricity decarb progress
Transport and heat decarbonisation: More flexibility?
Exploring uncertainties: electric heating?
Heat sector decarbonisation
Bio-energy
resources
Transport sector decarbonisation
District heating business models
Other low C heat
vectors
Power grid con-straints
Heat pump costs; per-
formance
Energy efficiency progress
Electricity decarb progress
Transport and heat decarbonisation: More flexibility?
Transport modes / demand
EV costs and per-
formance
Per-formance of other
techs
Exploring uncertainties: electric vehicles
Consumers preferences; characteristics;
usage; knowledge
Societal Public opinion; social
norms
Economic macroeconomics;
commodity markets
Technological vehicles, credentials
Infrastructure Distribution; standards
Policy, including regulations & targets
Source: Morton, Anable and Brand, 2014
Click to add title Some emerging conclusions Power sector decarbonisation by 2030 is critically important: o No shortage of capital, but policy frameworks, market structures &
business models may need to change to attract that capital o Limited low carbon options to 2030: but will be tough to keep them
all ‘in the low carbon race’. Limitations on political capital too?
More flexibility with heat and transport decarbonisation: o Delayed electricity decarbonisation not a show stopper for heat o More action needed on energy efficiency to provide more flexibility o Support for demonstration & early deployment of heat & transport
options (e.g. district heating; EVs) to ‘open up’ & test options
Need to move beyond narrow framing of public attitudes: transitions that align with values more likely to be successful Natural resources and ecosystem service impacts may limit options and flexibility; driven partly by global trends
Click to add title Implications for CCS Extent of CCS contribution to power (& industry) sector decarbonisation depends on relative costs / performance. Demonstration remains essential. Risks higher than for many other low carbon technologies: implications for finance availability CCS in group of potential ‘non transitions’ that need to be balanced by broader progress to sustainable energy CCS vulnerable to natural resource availability uncertainties, including for biomass availability Compared to nuclear and some renewables, CCS is ‘under the radar’ of political debate: but firm demonstrations are likely to change that
Click to add title
Thanks
http://www.ukerc.ac.uk https://twitter.com/watsonjim2
