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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd Jan 29, 2016

Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance

L.G.Balakrishnan&Bros Ltd

No. of shares (m) 15.7

Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 739/108.6

Current price (Rs/$) 471/6.9

Price target (Rs/$) 549/8.1

52 W H/L (Rs.) 646/401

Book Value (Rs/$) 247/3.6

Beta 0.8

Daily volume (avg. monthly) 7211

P/BV (FY16e/17e) 1.8/1.6

EV/EBITDA (FY16e/17e) 5.8/4.8

P/E (FY16e/17e) 11.7/9.9

EPS growth (FY15/16e/17e) 9.8/-3.9/18.3

OPM (FY15/16e/17e) 12.1/11.4/12.1

ROE (FY15/16e/17e) 20.6/16.9/17.4

ROCE(FY15/16e/17e) 16.6/14.1/14.6

D/E ratio (FY15/16e/17e) 0.5/0.4/0.3

BSE Code 500250

NSE Code LGBBROSLTD

Bloomberg LGBB IN

Reuters LBG.BO

Shareholding pattern %

Promoters 47.3

MFs / Banks / FIs 13.4

Foreign 0.6

Govt. Holding 0.0

Non-Promoter Corp. 1.8

Total Public 36.9

Total 100.0

As on Sep 30, 2015

Recommendation

ACCUMULATE

Analyst

KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM

Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043

E- mail: [email protected]

Consolidated (Rs crs)

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16e

FY17e

Income from ops. 956.19 1108.56 1172.98 1250.16 1422.11

Other Income 3.83 4.60 9.34 2.46 2.69

EBITDA (other income included) 93.17 130.74 151.08 145.18 175.27

Profit after MI & associate profit

30.86 60.07 65.97 63.39 74.96

EPS(Rs) 19.66 38.27 42.03 40.38 47.76

EPS growth (%) -30.2 94.7 9.8 -3.9 18.3

Company Brief L G Balakrishnan (LGB) manufactures roller chains and undertakes metal

forming, which includes warm & cold forging, fine blanking and precision-

machined parts. Its step subsidiary, GFM LLC, deals in precision stamped

metal parts which are used in automobiles.

Quarterly Highlights

� LGB reported 7.4% growth in income from operations in Q3FY16, the

highest growth rate in last six quarters, driven by 11.7% growth in

transmission business. Metal forming business on the other hand continued

to stagger for its revenues declined for the third consecutive quarter not

least because of growing restrictions on diesel vehicles. Other business

mainly comprising scrap sales and LCV sales also tumbled sharply (-27%)

last quarter.

� LGB’s transmission business more than made up for revenue loss from

metal forming and other business in 9MFY16, resulting in 320 bps gain its

revenue share (yoy). Thanks to 3% fall in revenues in 9MFY16 to Rs 132.35

crs from Rs 136.47 crs in the same period a year ago, metal forming

business (standalone) lost its last fiscal’s streak of rising revenue share -

16.3% Vs 17.5% in 9MFY15.

� Bereft of decent volume growth LGB’s margins suffered. Its transmission

business EBIT margin slid 180 bps to 8% last quarter, a far cry from median

reading of 9.8% (based on last 11 quarters). String of poor shows led to 200

bps margin decline (8% vs 10%) in 9MFY16, resulting in 13.6% fall in EBIT

profit to Rs 51.69 crs compared to Rs 59.81 crs.

� Margin of metal forming business also tripped. Though margin has

recovered sharply from 7.4% in Q1FY16 but it was still down 330 bps to

10.1% in the last quarter, let alone last 11 quarters median margin of 10.6%.

For 9MFY16, margin was down 310 bps to 9.4% and EBIT 27% to Rs 12.45

crs. Yet net profit rose 6.6% last quarter to Rs 15.43 crs compared to Rs 14.47

crs in the year ago period mainly due to lower tax provision; for 9MFY16

net profit (adjusted for one-offs) fell 9.9% to Rs 41.80 crs.

� The stock trades at 11.7x FY16e EPS of Rs 40.38 and 9.9x FY17e EPS of Rs

47.76. Scathing slowdown in Indian two-wheeler industry has hit LGB’s

transmission business; precipitating earning cuts (FY17 projected earnings

slashed by over 25%). Yet we expect sturdy recovery next fiscal helped by

improved auto dispatches. Current valuations also favour the reserved. We

therefore assign a ‘accumulate’ rating with revised target of Rs 549

(previous target: Rs 645) based on 11.5x FY17e earnings (peg ratio: 0.6).

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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd


[

Outlook & Recommendation

Industry

Indian two-wheeler industry continues to plod along for its domestic dispatches grew by just 1.2% to 12.26m units in Apr-Dec

period; exports grew by a disappointing 0.1%. Softening demand for motorcycles (accounting for nearly two-thirds of the two

wheeler industry) explain much of this slowdown - off take declined by 2.5%. Buoyant dispatches of the scooter segment

though saved blushes for it grew by 11.4%. Yet the scooter segment is also showing signs of weariness: dispatches growth

averaged 21.6% in last four years ending fiscal 2015.

Market leader Hero Motocorp, which reported 3.3% decline in motorcycle sales, attributed high interest rates, slowdown in

rural economy and growing competition from Honda Motors as chief causes for the imbroglio. For Bajaj Auto not only

domestic motorcycle market soured (+2.8%) but also exports have suffered - declined 4.3%, the first downtick in at least four

years. Exports to Nigeria and Egypt, its largest export markets, tumbled over 10% last month mainly due to acute shortage of

the greenback in those countries. Sharper current depreciation in its key exports markets have also played spoilsport by

crimping demand. Of late, the sharp decline in the Chinese yuan has started giving headaches to Indian two wheeler makers.

Yet others like TVS Motors and Eicher Motors (read: Royal Enfield) have bucked the trend with the former reporting 4.6%

growth in motorcycle sales and the latter 51.6% in Apr-Dec period. ICRA, a credit rating agency, reckons that the Indian two-

wheeler industry would grow by 2-4% in FY16 spurred by modest growth in the off take of scooters. It expects the industry

grow by 8-9% over the next two years not least due to growing two-wheeler penetration, rising urbanization and strong

replacement demand.

The Indian passenger vehicle industry is slightly better off - published 9.1% growth in domestic sales in Apr-Dec period.

Maruti Suzuki has done wonders for it reported industry beating 13% growth in passenger car sales. Other key contributors

include Honda Siel (+27.3%) and Hyundai Motors (4.9%). Assisted by lower fuel prices and roll out of new models, India's car

sales crossed 2m mark (+10%), a historic record, in 2015. Although this buoyancy prompted SIAM to up FY16 passenger car

growth to 10% from 6-8% earlier, but headwinds abound. Most pertinently, abrupt policy environment changes such as the

ban on diesel vehicle sales in the national capital could back down manufacturers. Other worth noting risks include higher

input costs and clampdown on cheap imported metals.

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Financials & Valuation

Plagued by grim off take of the Indian two-wheeler industry, LGB's transmission revenues (standalone) grew by 8.3% in the

first nine months of the current fiscal, triggering cuts in forecasted revenues; 9% growth projected now Vs 15% earlier. Metal

forming business also failed to exploit much of the seeming robustness in dispatches last fiscal, when it grew by swiftest pace

in four years. Revenue as a result plunged 3% in the first three quarters of current year, prompting us to cut projected

revenues for current fiscal by 15.5%.

Meltdown in commodity prices have not helped maintain margins, let alone increasing it - raw material to sales ratio

declined by 172 bps in 9MFY16. EBIT margins of both transmission and metal forming businesses eased: 200 bps and 310bps

respectively. Thanks to insipid motorcycle volume growth, transmission margins (for current fiscal) could settle at 8.2%, a

multi year low. But a recovery in two-wheeler next fiscal would spin margins by at least 100 bps.

Much of LBG's business recovery rests on the domestic automobile market (both two-wheeler and passenger vehicle) for

export accounts for less than a tenth of its total revenue. If revenue accrual is any indication, then further business

diversification is elusive as yet. Transmission business would continue to form 65-70% of overall revenues for next few years,

while metal forming would plod along at some 15%.

Tepid earnings would stymie operating cash flows this fiscal before rising next year. Return on capital ratios would also rise

with higher margins and asset utilization rates (see chart below). Free cash flows (at firm level) are projected to rise to multi

year highs next year driven by robust operating cash flows and modest capex. Resentful market share in automotive chain

market (70% in OEM segment and 50% in replacement market) has helped it carve out an economic moat (narrow though).

With changing trends in automotive industry, it plans to launch sturdy chains - its chains with super surface treatment have

been well received.

The stock trades at 11.7x FY16e EPS of Rs 40.38 and 9.9x FY17e EPS of Rs 47.76. Recovery in earnings next fiscal rests on the

fortunes of the two-wheeler industry whose domestic sales have grown by 1.2% in Apr-Dec period compared to 8.1% in

FY15. Worse still, the motorcycle sales have plummeted 2.5%. Yet we expect sturdy recovery next fiscal helped by improved

auto dispatches. New product introductions, particularly for the four wheeler industry, would also help. And so would

production ramp up at the new facility at Jalna. We therefore assign a ‘accumulate’ rating with revised target of Rs 549

(previous target: Rs 645) based on 11.5x FY17e earnings (peg ratio: 0.6). For more info refer to our April 2015 report.

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Risks & Concerns

Firm power cost

LGB reckons that high power cost in India acts a deterrent to low-cost manufacturing. LGB's increasing power cost (as % of sales)

has eroded its cost competitiveness globally over the last few years.

Dreary automobile sector

As the automobile sector forms a bulk of LGB's revenue, marked slowdown in auto volumes could impact its volumes. High

interest rates would further jeopardize resurrection in auto demand.

Margin pressure

Plethora of factors imperil margins including rising raw material costs, acute power shortages, pricing pressure by clients (read

OEMs) and import of auto components from low cost locations. EBIT margins of both transmission and metal forming

businesses in Q1FY16, for instance, plunged to the lowest level in at least nine quarters partly due to patchy demand and higher

employee costs.

Cross Sectional Analysis

Company Equity* CMP Mcap* Sales PAT* OPMa NPM

a

Int

Cov. ROE

Mcap

/

sales P/BV P/E EV/EBITDA

Gabriel 14 86 1230 1423 66 8.3 4.6 22.5 20.0 0.9 3.5 18.6 9.8

LG Bala 16 471 739 1079 55 11.6 5.1 5.2 14.9 0.7 1.9 13.5 6.6

Minda Corp 42 93 1948 2172 95 9.4 4.3 4.4 21.0 0.9 3.9 20.5 10.1

Munjal Show 8 175 700 1548 68 7.9 4.4 - 16.4 0.5 1.6 10.2 4.7

*figures in crores; calculations on ttm basis Companies not truly comparable due to product dissimilarity

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Financials

Quarterly Results -Standalone Figures in Rs crs

Q3FY16 Q3FY15 % chg. 9MFY16 9MFY15 % chg.

Income from operations 283.43 264.01 7.4 811.82 781.02 3.9

Other Income 0.52 0.55 -5.6 2.23 8.74 -74.5

Total Income 283.95 264.56 7.3 814.05 789.76 3.1

Total Expenditure 249.15 232.66 7.1 717.32 682.50 5.1

PBIDT (other income included) 34.80 31.90 9.1 96.73 107.26 -9.8

Interest 3.94 3.93 0.3 12.77 12.40 3.0

Depreciation 11.32 8.72 29.9 31.28 28.27 10.7

PBT 19.54 19.25 1.5 52.67 66.59 -20.9

Tax 4.10 4.78 -14.1 10.88 15.29 -28.9

PAT 15.43 14.47 6.6 41.80 51.30 -18.5

Extraordinary Item - - - 0.00 4.93 -100.0

Adjusted Net Profit 15.43 14.47 6.6 41.80 46.37 -9.9

EPS (F.V. 10) 9.83 9.22 6.6 26.63 29.54 -9.9

Equity 15.70 15.70 0.0 15.70 15.70 0.0

Segment Results Figures in Rs crs

Q3FY16 Q3FY15 % chg. 9MFY16 9MFY15 % chg.

Segment Revenue

Transmission 229.47 205.48 11.7 645.71 596.28 8.3

Metal forming 43.14 43.71 -1.3 132.35 136.47 -3.0

Others 10.82 14.82 -27.0 33.76 48.28 -30.1

Total 283.43 264.02 7.4 811.82 781.03 3.9

Segment EBIT

Transmission 18.42 20.19 -8.8 51.69 59.81 -13.6

Metal forming 4.35 6.24 -30.3 12.45 17.04 -27.0

Others 0.71 -3.25 -121.8 1.31 -4.47 -129.4

Total 23.48 23.18 1.3 65.45 72.39 -9.6

Interest 3.94 3.93 0.3 12.77 12.40 3.0

Extra-ordinary income - - - 0.00 6.61 -100.0

PBT 19.54 19.25 1.5 52.67 66.60 -20.9

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Financials

Income Statement - Consolidated Figures in Rs crs

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Income from operations 956.19 1108.56 1172.98 1250.16 1422.11

Growth (%) 4.8 15.9 5.8 6.6 13.8

Other Income 3.83 4.60 9.34 2.46 2.69

Total Income 960.02 1113.16 1182.32 1252.62 1424.80

Total Expenditure 866.85 982.42 1031.24 1107.44 1249.53

EBITDA (other income included) 93.17 130.74 151.08 145.18 175.27

Interest 22.94 17.90 17.70 18.38 16.89

EBDT 70.23 112.84 133.38 126.80 158.38

Depreciation 29.89 32.79 39.47 44.66 48.90

Tax 7.70 14.90 20.49 17.25 32.84

Net profit 32.64 65.15 73.42 64.89 76.64

Minority interest -0.09 3.24 2.79 2.08 2.26

Associate profit 0.00 0.93 0.58 0.58 0.58

Net profit after MI&AP 32.73 62.84 71.21 63.39 74.96

Extraordinary item 1.87 2.77 5.24 - -

Adjusted Net Profit 30.86 60.07 65.97 63.39 74.96

EPS (Rs.) 19.66 38.27 42.03 40.38 47.76

Segment Results Figures in Rs crs


Segment Revenue

Transmission 630.81 729.50 799.78 871.76 1002.52

Metal forming 157.18 165.95 184.60 180.90 202.61

Others 168.19 213.11 188.61 197.50 216.97

Net sales 956.19 1108.56 1172.98 1250.16 1422.11

Segment EBIT

Transmission 56.74 73.93 77.85 71.48 92.23

Metal forming 5.37 15.32 23.29 17.19 21.27

Others 1.17 8.70 3.87 11.85 12.87

Sub Total 63.28 97.94 105.00 100.52 126.37

Extraordinary income - - 6.61 - -

Interest 22.94 17.90 17.70 18.38 16.89

PBT 40.34 80.04 93.91 82.14 109.48

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Consolidated Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs


SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 7.85 7.85 15.70 15.70 15.70

Reserves 250.60 299.89 348.95 401.00 462.74

Total Shareholders Funds 258.45 307.74 364.65 416.70 478.44

Minority Interest 5.47 9.66 12.79 14.87 17.13

Long term debt 86.07 65.99 99.31 94.52 69.73

Total Liabilities 349.99 383.39 476.74 526.09 565.29

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 427.76 486.13 584.72 634.72 709.72

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 200.03 231.41 270.01 314.67 363.57

Net Block 227.73 254.72 314.72 320.06 346.16

Capital Work in Progress 3.49 9.04 36.54 50.00 30.00

Investments 18.68 17.03 17.60 18.18 18.76

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 196.01 207.52 230.55 237.46 261.21

Sundry Debtors 124.15 146.10 147.85 155.24 170.76

Cash and Bank 10.28 6.50 7.33 5.32 8.62

Other Assets 19.81 13.80 24.05 22.98 23.50

Total CA & LA 350.25 373.92 409.78 421.00 464.09

/ Current liabilities 252.15 282.08 305.23 287.03 298.16

Provisions 1.84 6.43 7.18 6.61 7.56

Total Current Liabilities 253.99 288.51 312.40 293.65 305.72

Net Current Assets 96.26 85.41 97.37 127.36 158.37

Net Deferred Tax (net of liability) -17.85 -16.99 -16.51 -16.51 -16.51

Other Assets (Net of liabilities) 21.68 34.17 27.03 27.00 28.51

Total Assets 349.99 383.39 476.74 526.09 565.29

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Cash Flow Statement Figures in Rs crs


Net Income (a) 32.64 65.15 73.42 64.89 76.64

Non cash exp. & others (b) 26.16 28.67 31.68 42.56 46.61

Depreciation 29.89 32.79 39.47 44.66 48.90

Profit / loss on sale of assets -2.31 -3.40 -6.70 - -

Others -1.41 -0.72 -1.08 -2.10 -2.29

(Increase) / decrease in NWC (c) -11.66 -15.92 -6.71 -28.22 -30.17

Inventory -2.99 -11.51 -23.03 -6.92 -23.75

Debtors -15.11 -22.97 -2.62 -7.39 -15.52

long term loans & advances -8.51 -12.52 1.72 0.03 -1.51

trade payables & others 14.95 31.08 17.21 -13.94 10.61

Operating cash flow (a+b+c) 47.14 77.90 98.39 79.23 93.08

Proceeds on sale of assets 2.67 4.79 7.93 - -

Purchase of fixed assets -61.69 -66.87 -123.49 -63.46 -55.00

Investments -5.07 0.46 0.01 - -

Others 1.21 1.38 1.60 2.10 2.29

Investing cash flow (d) -62.89 -60.24 -113.95 -61.36 -52.71

Net borrowings 29.80 -14.27 26.95 -7.97 -24.79

Dividends paid -15.05 -6.43 -12.45 -11.90 -12.28

Issue of shares 5.53 -0.48 0.15 - -

Financing cash flow (e) 20.28 -21.18 14.65 -19.87 -37.07

Net change (a+b+c+d+e) 4.53 -3.51 -0.91 -2.01 3.30

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Key Financial Ratios


Growth Ratios

Revenue (%) 4.8 15.9 5.8 6.6 13.8

EBIDTA (%) -13.7 40.2 13.4 0.6 20.7

Net Profit (%) -30.2 94.7 9.8 -3.9 18.3

EPS (%) -30.2 94.7 9.8 -3.9 18.3

Margins

Operating Profit Margin (%) 9.3 11.4 12.1 11.4 12.1

Gross Profit Margin (%) 7.1 9.9 10.8 10.1 11.1

Net Profit Margin (%) 3.2 5.6 5.8 5.2 5.4

Return

ROCE (%) 12.6 17.7 16.6 14.1 14.6

RONW (%) 13.0 22.4 20.6 16.9 17.4

Valuations

Market Cap / Sales 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.5

EV/EBIDTA 3.3 3.6 7.2 5.8 4.8

P/E 4.6 5.3 13.1 11.7 9.9

P/BV 0.6 1.1 2.5 1.8 1.6

Other Ratios

Interest Coverage 2.7 5.3 5.9 5.5 7.5

Debt-Equity Ratio 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3

Current Ratio 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5

Turnover Ratios

Fixed Asset Turnover 4.6 4.8 4.3 4.1 4.4

Total Asset Turnover 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.7

Debtors Turnover 8.2 8.2 8.0 8.2 8.7

Inventory Turnover 4.5 4.9 4.7 4.7 5.0

Creditors Turnover 7.5 7.4 6.8 6.9 7.4

WC Ratios

Debtor Days 44.5 44.5 45.7 44.2 41.8

Inventory Days 81.9 75.0 77.5 77.1 72.8

Creditor Days 48.7 49.3 53.5 52.8 49.1

Cash Conversion Cycle 77.7 70.1 69.7 68.6 65.6

Cash Flows (Rs crs)

Operating Cash Flow 47.1 77.9 98.4 79.2 93.1

FCFF 2.6 32.0 -1.4 32.6 52.2

FCFE 14.1 3.4 11.4 9.9 15.6

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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated million $ FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e

Equity capital 1.4 1.3 2.5 2.3 2.3

Shareholders funds 47.5 51.2 58.3 61.2 70.3

Total debt 30.8 25.0 28.3 24.9 21.2

Net fixed assets (incl CWIP) 42.5 43.9 56.1 54.4 55.2

Investments 3.4 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.8

Net current assets 17.7 14.2 15.6 18.7 23.3

Total assets 64.3 63.8 76.2 77.3 83.0

Revenues 175.6 183.2 191.8 183.6 208.9

EBITDA 16.7 21.0 23.6 21.3 25.7

EBDT 12.5 18.1 20.7 18.6 23.3

PBT 7.0 12.7 14.3 12.1 16.1

Profit after MI & associate profit 5.7 9.9 10.8 9.3 11.0

EPS($) 0.36 0.63 0.69 0.59 0.70

Book value ($) 2.9 3.1 3.6 3.8 4.3

Operating cash flow 8.7 13.0 15.7 11.6 13.7

Investing cash flow -11.6 -10.0 -18.2 -9.0 -7.7

Financing cash flow 3.7 -3.5 2.3 -2.9 -5.4

income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet and cash flow at year end rates; projections at current rates All dollar denominated figures are adjusted for extraordinary items.

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Disclosure& Disclaimer CD Equisearch Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as ‘CD Equi’) is a Member registered with National Stock Exchange of India Limited,

Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and Metropolitan Stock Exchange of India Limited (Formerly known as MCX Stock Exchange Limited). CD

Equi is also registered as Depository Participant with CDSL and AMFI registered Mutual Fund Advisor. The associates of CD Equi are

engaged in activities relating to NBFC-ND - Financing and Investment, Commodity Broking, Real Estate, etc.

CD Equi is registered under SEBI (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 with SEBI Registration no INH300002274. Further, CD Equi hereby

declares that –

• No disciplinary action has been taken against CD Equi by any of the regulatory authorities.

• CD Equi/its associates/research analysts do not have any financial interest/beneficial interest of more than one percent/material

conflict of interest in the subject company(s) (kindly disclose if otherwise).

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months.

• CD Equi/its research analysts has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by analysts and has not been

engaged in market making activity of the company covered by analysts.

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision.

Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such

investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in

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investment.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading

volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

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While, CD Equi endeavors to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory compliance or

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