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The copyright laws of the United States (Title 17 U.S. Code) forbid the unauthorized reproduction of this report by any means,

including facsimile or computerized formats. Copyright 2006, CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

November 8, 2007California Desert AOR

Leslie Appleton-YoungC.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist

2008 Real Estate Market Forecast

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California Real Estate Market: 2007

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California Market Stats: 2000-2005

Four Year Housing Boom

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

SFH esales

(thousands)535.5 504.0 572.6 601.8 624.7 625.0

% Change -0.4% -5.9% 13.6% 5.1% 3.8% 0.04%

Median Pr i e

($ thousands)$241.4 $262.4 $316.1 $372.7 $450.8 $524.0

% Change 11.0% 8.7% 20.5% 17.9% 20.9% 16.2%

30 Y F M 8.1% 7.0% 6.5% 5.8% 5.8% 5.9%

ate of return 2.9% 1.7% 14.0% 12.1% 15.1% 10.3%

SOU CE: California Asso iation of EALTO S

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Sales of Existing Detac e Homes Annual Comparison

California, 2006 Sales: 477,460 Units, Down 23.6% Y-T-Y

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS;T e Conference Boar

,

,

,

,

,

6 ,

,

99

99

99 9 6

,

,

,

,

,

6

,

,

Jan eb a

rApr ay Ju

n Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

6

UN ITS

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650,800

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Jan-00

Apr-00

Jul-00

O

t-00

Jan-01

Apr-01

Jul-01

O

t-01

Jan-02

Apr-02

Jul-02

O

t-02

Jan-03

Apr-03

Jul-03

O

t-03

Jan-04

Apr-04

Jul-04

O

t-04

Jan-05

Apr-05

Jul-05

O

t-05

Jan-06

Apr-06

Jul-06

O

t-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-07

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Sales ConsumerConf ence I DEXU ITS

Sales ofEx st ngDetached Homes and Pacific West ConsumerConfidence

California, September 2007 Sales: 271,590 Units, Down 20.9% Y-T-D, Down 38.9% Y-T-Y

2007 projected: 367,500; lowest since 1995s 342,540

SOURCE: California Association ofREALTORS;The Conference Board

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Me ian Price Annual Comparison

California, 2006: $556,640, Up 6.5% Y-T-Y

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS

-

100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

an eMar A

pr

Ma u

n ul

Au

Sept

Oct ov ec

20072005

2006

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$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

Jan-00

May-00

Sep-00

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01

Jan-02

May-02

Sep-02

Jan-03

May-03

Sep-03

Jan-04

May-04

Sep-04

Jan-05

May-05

Sep-05

Jan-06

May-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

May-07

Sep-07

Me ianPrice of Existing Detache HomesCalifornia, September 2007: $530,830, Down 4.7% Y-T-Y

Down 9.9% M-T-M


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Varia ilit Among Local Markets

egioneak

Mont eak ricee t

Me ianC g

rom eak

High Desert Apr-06 $334,860 $271,940 -18.8%

San Francisco May-07 $853,910 $702,240 -17.8%

Sacramento Aug-05 $394,450 $325,550 -17.5%

San Luis Obispo Jun-06 $620,540 $519,740 -16.2%

Central Valley*(Aug 2007) Aug-05 $363,680 $309,740 -14.8%Northern Wine Country Jan-06 $645,080 $551,680 -14.5%

Riverside San Bernardino Jan-07 $415,160 $356,510 -14.1%

Northern California Aug-05 $440,420 $383,330 -13.0%

Palm Springs/Lower Desert Jun-05 $393,370 $346,080 -12.0%

San Diego May-06 $622,380 $560,840 -9.9%

Orange County Apr-07 $747,260 $673,770 -9.8%Monterey Region Aug-07 $798,210 $722,500 -9.5%

Los Angeles Aug-07 $605,300 $569,390 -5.9%

Ventura Aug-06 $710,910 $681,820 -4.1%

Santa Clara Apr-07 $868,410 $848,950 -2.2%

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-27.7

-32.5-36.

-52.

-26.

-3.

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

e ow 500 000 500 000-999,999 Ove 1 Million

ug-07 Sep-07

Lowe PriceRangesHitHar est, butPercentage Change in Sales YTY

SOURCE:California AssociationofREALTORS

Credit Crunchslammed highend in September

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Annual Percent Change in Me ian Price

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

California1982-2008f


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Unsol In entor In ex

0123456789

101112

131415161718

Jan00

a

-00

Se

-00

Jan-01

a

-01

Se

-01

Jan-02

a

-02

Se

-02

Jan-03

a

-03

Se

-03

Jan-04

a

-04

Se

-04

Jan-05

a

-05

Se

-05

Jan-06

a

-06

Se

-06

Jan-07

a

-07

Se

-07

O THSonthl A er age Since 1988: 7.0 months

California, September 2007: 16.6 Months


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Un

solIn

e

ntorIn

ex

California

,Septem

be

r2007:1

6.6

Mon

th

SOURCE:CaliforniaAssociationofRE

ALTORS

MO

THS

an-88Jul-88

Jan-8

Jul-8Jan- 0Jul- 0

Jan-Jul-

Jan- 2Jul- 2

Jan-Jul-

Jan-Jul-

Jan-Jul-

Jan-Jul-

Jan- 7Jul- 7

Jan- 8

Jul- 8Jan-Jul-

Jan-00Jul-00

Jan-0Jul-0

Jan-02Jul-02

Jan-0Jul-0

Jan-0Jul-0

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Unsol In entor In ex s.Price Changes

-

-

-

C A Pr U I I x ( t ) L T r A = t

C f r , -


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Listings by Month Selecte YearsCalifornia (1982-2007 Average=100)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

an eb Mar Apr May un ul Aug Sep Oct o Dec

1983 1992 2004 2006 2007


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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

YTD

Single Famil ulti-Famil

SOURCE:ConstructionIn ustr ResearchBoar

Household Gro th:220,000-250,000/yr

CA New HousingPermits:1988- 2007

Down 30.0% Y-T-D in 2007

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Sub-Prime Fall-out andForeclosures

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83%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q1/98

Q1/99

Q1/00

Q1/01

Q1/02

Q1/03

Q1/04

Q1/05

Q1/06

Q1/07

r e on en ona ubpr e on en ona FH / / her

Prime Sub-Prime & Other Loanss a ercen age of oans u s and ng n a forn a

SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association C.A.R.

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0

2

4%

6%

8%

10%12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Q11998

Q11999

Q12000

Q12001

Q12002

Q12003

Q12004

Q12005

Q12006

Q12007

nventional Prime Past ue onventional ubprime Past ue

California 2-2007

Prime Versus ub Prime Past ue

OUR E MortgageBankersAssociation

ub Prime Past ue LRAvg 7.0%

Prime Past ue LRAvg 1.8%

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Foreclosures per Household

Foreclosures perHousehold

u ust 2007

Natio = 0.20%

< .. - .

> .t

Source: RealtyTrac SF Fed

August 2 7 Re ltyTr c

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Mortgage Foreclosure RatesCalifornia: 1974 - 2006

SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association

DELIN UENCY RATE

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Q1/74

Q1/75

Q1/76

Q1/77

Q1/78

Q1/79

Q1/

0

Q1/

1

Q1/

2

Q1/

3

Q1/

4

Q1/

Q1/

6

Q1/

7

Q1/

Q1/

9

Q1/90

Q1/91

Q1/92

Q1/93

Q1/94

Q1/95

Q1/96

Q1/97

Q1/98

Q1/99

Q1/00

Q1/01

Q1/02

Q1/03

Q1/04

Q1/05

Q1/06

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Foreclosure Rate Delinquency Rate

FORECLOSURE RATE

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Q1/74

Q2/75

Q3/76

Q4/77

Q1/79

Q2/80

Q3/81

Q4/82

Q1/84

Q2/85

Q3/86

Q4/87

Q1/89

Q2/90

Q3/91

Q4/92

Q1/94

Q2/95

Q3/96

Q4/97

Q1/99

Q2/00

Q3/01

Q4/02

Q1/04

Q2/05

Q3/06

elinquency Rate ecl sure Rate

M rtgage recl sure& elinquency RatesCalifornia

SOURCE:M rtgageBankersAss ciati n

elinquencies:LR A g: 3.9

recl sure Rate:LR A g:0.81

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Notices of Default CaliforniaHouses & Condos

e ion

C an e

C an e

Sout

fornia 30, , , .3% 151. %

San rancisco

Bay rea 7, ,730 2, 10 14.4% 164.5%

Central alley 12, 64 11,054 4,703 17.3% 175.7%

Statewide 53, 43 44,532 20, 09 21.1% 158.0%

SOU CE: Data uick Information Systems

ecord Hi NoDs: 54 in 99

ecord LowNoDs: 4 in 3

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SOURCE:FederalHomeLoanMortgage

Corporation

0 2 7 8 0

Jan-

Jul-

Jan- 2

Jul- 2Jan-

Jul-

Jan-

Jul-

Jan-

Jul-

Jan-

Jul-

Jan- 7

Jul- 7

Jan- 8

Jul- 8

Jan-

Jul-

Jan-00Jul-00

Jan-0

Jul-0

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-0

Jul-0Jan-0

Jul-0

Jan-0

FRM

ARM

Fede

ralFunds

Mortgag

eRates

Fedcutsto4.7

5%on

91

80

7

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21.1

40.9

11.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

All e er ir t i e erRepeat er

Percent f er with Zer D wnpa entFirst-Time uyers vs. Repeat uyers: 1998 - 2006

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17.7

29.4

10.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

All er ir t i e erRepeat er

Percent f er with Zer D wnpa entFirst-Time uyers vs. Repeat uyers: 1998 - 2007

SOURCE: C.A.R.2007Ann al ing Market S r e

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Lessons from Past Cycles

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Lesson #11st Time Homebuyers Will Buy

California

1

6

1 9 91 9 9 9 99 1

Q Was the buyer a first-time buyer?

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THOUSANDS Ho S l M hip

L on # : Th will w REALTORS

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L on # : Th k t will cov

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Economic Fundamentals

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Gross Domestic Product

-

-2

-

0

2

7

8

0 2 7 8

2000

200

2002

200

200

200

200

2007

2008f

Year 2006: 2.9%; 2007 2.0%

ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE CHAIN-TYPE 2000)

SOURCE: Bureau ofEconomic Analysis

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Share of Total obGrowthQ3 2003 Q3 2006

Housing23%

Retail andwholesale1

23%

Professionalandbusiness

services1

19%

Health careand socialassistance

17%

Leisure andhospitality

16%

Other

16%

Source: Moodys Economy.com

Note:1

E cluding housing

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-2

-

0

2

8 8 8 87

88

80 2 7 8

2000

200

2002

200

200

200

200

2007P

liforni S

YEAR TO YEAR % HANGE

Employment Growth liforni vs. .S.2007P: CA 1.2% US 1.3%

SO R E: A EDD Bure u ofL borSt tistics

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Year-to

-Year%

Changei

nob

-.0%

-.0%

-.0%

.0%

.0%

.0%

7.0%

Constr tion

G

rans. Whsg.

til.

Tra e

Information

.I.R.E.

rof s. s.

E . lth

afet

eis re

os .

ther s.

Fe eral Go 't

200

200

2007F

%

Change

California2

005-2

007

RCE:CAED

DCLAAn

ersonFore

ast

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Nonfarm Employment By Region

SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

Nonfar Nonfar

E oyment Employment Per ent

August- August- ange Change

Southern California 8,545.6 8,443.6 106.4 1.3%

Bay Area 3,270.0 3,222.5 56.6 1.8%Central Valley 2,042.1 2,019.1 30.5 1.5%

Central Coast 500.8 497.5 4.4 0.9%

North Central 144.8 142.8 3.2 2.2%

CALFORNIA 15,273.7 15,110.4 163.3 1.1%

(Thousands)

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No

nfarmEmployme

nt

Sacram

ento-ArdenArc

ade-RosevilleMSA,August2

007:Up

SOURCE:CA

Em

plo

ymentDevelo

pment

Division

Y-T-Y

PERCENTCHANGE

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6% %

Jan-91Jul-91

Jan-92Jul-92

Jan-93Jul-93

Jan-94Jul-94

Jan-95

Jul-95Jan-96Jul-96

Jan-97Jul-97

Jan-98Jul-98

Jan-99

Jul-99Jan-00Jul-00

Jan-01Jul-01

Jan-02Jul-02

Jan-03Jul-03

Jan-04Jul-04

Jan-05Jul 05

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INDEX 100 1985

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

an-8

8

an-8

9

an-9

0

an-9

1

an-9

2

an-9

3

an-9

4

an-9

5

an-9

6

an-9

7

an-9

8

an-9

9

an-0

0

an-0

1

an-0

2

an-0

3

an-0

4

an-0

5

an-0

6

an-0

7

ConsumerConfidence Index

October 2007: 95.6 Falling since August

SOURCE: The Conference Board

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QUARTE

RLYPERCENTCHA

NGE

- - -

Q-

Q-

Q-

Q-

Q-

Q-Q-

Q-

Q-

Q-Q-

Q-

Q-

Q-Q-

PersonalCo

nsumption

2007Q2:

+1.4

%

SOURCE:Bureau

ofEconomicAnalysis

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C P

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ConsumerPrice Index

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

I ems

Core

August 2007: All Items 2.0% Y-T-Y; Core 2.1% Y-T-Y

PERCENT CH NGE FROM YE R GO

SOURCE: Bure u of L bor S is ics

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Economy through 2008: Razors Edge

Sub par economic growth (below 3.0%)

Weak but positive job growth

Unemployment rate up slightly

Inflation a concern but in check

Uncertainty about economy credit crunch

KEY CONCERN: Will turmoil in the housing market

tip the economy into recession?

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Riverside County

Economic Profile

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Riverside CountyProfile

Characteristic Statistic State Rank

2007 Population Estimate 2,031,625 4

% Population Change 1990-2000 32.0% 4

% Population Change 1980-1990 76.48% 1

% White 2004 46.42%

% ispanic 2004 40.35%

% lack 2004 5.36%

% Asian & Pacific Islander 2004 5.41%

2004 Per Capita Income $21,418

2004 Median ousehold Income $47,772

2004 Median Age 32.2

and Area Square Miles 7,207 4

2000 Total Establishments 26,565 8

2004 Civilian Employment 836,916

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Sales of Existing Detached Homes andPacific West ConsumerConfidence

Riverside County, September 2007: 514 Units, Down 37.7% Y-T-D, Down 39.2% Y-T-Y

SOURCE: California Association of REALTORS;

The Conference Board

INDEXUNITS

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

an-9

0

ul-90

an-9

1

ul-91

an-9

2

ul-92

an-9

3

ul-93

an-9

4

ul-94

an-9

5

ul-95

an-9

6

ul-96

an-9

7

ul-97

an-9

8

ul-98

an-9

9

ul-99

an-0

0

ul-00

an-0

1

ul-01

an-0

2

ul-02

an-0

3

ul-03

an-0

4

ul-04

an-0

5

ul-05

an-0

6

ul-06

an-0

7

ul-07

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Sales ConsumerConfidence

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Sales of Existing Detached Homes Annual Comparison

Riverside County, 2006: 13,717 Units, Down 23.9% Y-T-Y


The Conference Board

UNITS

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

0

200

00

00

800

1,000

1,200

1, 00

1, 00

1,800

2,000

an e ar

Apr ay u

n ul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

20020020052007

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Median Price Annual ComparisonRiverside County, 2006: $415,008, Up 5.3% Y-T-Y


$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

$-

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

an eMar A

pr

May u

n ul

Au

Sept

Oct ov ec

200200420052007

S

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Sep-07 Sep-06

Yearly %

ChangeBanning $265,000 $280,000 -5.4%

Beaumont $333,000 $400,500 -16.9%

Cathedral City $290,000 $370,000 -21.6%

Corona $500,000 $580,000 -13.8%

Desert Hot Springs $259,000 $295,000 -12.2%

Hemet $289,000 $320,000 -9.7%

Indio $355,000 $390,000 -9.0%

La Quinta $445,000 $500,000 -11.0%

Lake Elsinore $379,000 $418,750 -9.5%

Menifee $351,750 $439,000 -19.9%

Moreno Valley $334,250 $389,500 -14.2%

Murrieta $405,000 $476,500 -15.0%

Palm Desert $365,000 $407,500 -10.4%

Palm Springs $341,000 $395,000 -13.7%

Perris $324,000 $395,000 -18.0%

Rancho Mirage $691,000 $677,000 2.1%

Riverside $399,500 $430,000 -7.1%

San Jacinto $312,000 $364,750 -14.5%

Median Home Sales PriceRiverside County

SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. Theprice statistics are derived from all types ofhome sales --

new and existing condos and single-family.

M di H S l P i

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Median Home Sales PriceRiverside County

Se p-07 Se p-06

Ye arly %

C han geSu n C i ty $318,000 $380,250 -16.4%

Te me cu la $414,000 $510,500 -18.9%

Wild o mar $381,000 $503,500 -24.3%

Win che s t e r $390,000 $475,500 -18.0%

SOURCE: C.A.R.; DataQuick Information Systems. Theprice statistics are derived from all types ofhome sales --

new and existing condos and single-family.

U ld I t I d

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Unsold Inventory IndexRiverside and San ernardino Counties, September 2007: 24.9 Months


MONTHS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

an93

l93

an94

l94

an95

l95

an96

l96

an97

l97

an98

l98

an99

l99

an

00

l00

an

01

l01

an

02

l02

an

03

l03

an

04

l04

an

05

l05

an

06

l06

an

07

l07

Inland E ire Riverside & San Bernardino

F l

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ForeclosuresRiverside County

SOURCE: Real Estate ResearchCouncil

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1/

9

2/90

3/91

4/92

1/94

2/95

3/96

4/97

1/99

2/00

3/01

4/02

1/04

2/05

3/06

P ti f F l i H i T f

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Proportion of Foreclosures in Housing Transfers

Riverside County

SOURCE: Real Estate ResearchCouncil

0

0

20

2

0

7 8 2000 200 2002 200 200 200 200

S

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Hous

ingAffor

dabilityIndex

Riv

ersid

eCoun

ty,D

e

cember2

005:1

6%

SOURCE:CaliforniaAssociationofREA

LTORS

020 0 0

Jan 0Jul 0

JanJul

Jan 2

Jul 2Jan

Jul

Jan

JulJanJul

Jan

JulJan 7

Jul 7

Jan 8

Jul 8JanJul

Jan 00

Jul 00Jan 0

Jul 0

Jan 02Jul 02

Jan 0Jul 0

OFHO

USEHOLDSTHATC

AN

BUY

Fi t ti B H i Aff d bilit I d

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First-time Buyer Housing Affordability IndexRiverside County, 2nd Quarter 2007: 35%


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Q103

Q303

Q104

Q304

Q105

Q305

Q106

Q306

Q107

OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY

S

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No

nfarmEm

ployme

nt

Riverside

San

ernardinoMetropolitan

Area,August2

007:U

SOURCE:CA

Em

ploymentDevelopmentDivision

Y-T-Y

PER

CENTCHANGE

-2 0 2 4 6 8

an-91ul-91

an-92ul-92

an-93ul-93

an-94

ul-94an-95

ul-95

an-96ul-96

an-97ul-97

an-98ul-98

an-99

ul-99an-00

ul-00an-01ul-01

an-02ul-02

an-03

ul-03an-04

ul-04an 05

1 1 1 1S

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UnemploymentRat

e

Riv

ersid

eCoun

ty,A

ugust2

007:

6.5%

0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6

Jan 90Jul 90

Jan 91Jul 91

Jan 92Jul 92

Jan 93Jul 93

Jan 94Jul 94

Jan 95Jul 95

Jan 96Jul 96

Jan 97Jul 97

Jan 98Jul 98

Jan 99

Jul 99Jan 00Jul 00

Jan 01Jul 01

Jan 02Jul 02

Jan 03

Jul 03Jan 04Jul 04

J 05

SOURCE:CA

Em

ploymentDevelopmen

tDivision

S

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Taxable

Sales

Riv

ersid

e

Coun

ty

10 5 0 5

10

15

20

1/893/89

1/903/901/913/911/923/921/933/93

1/943/941/953/951/963/961/973/97

1/983/981/993/991/003/001/013/01

1/023/021/033/03

ANNUALP

ERCENTCHANGE

SOURCE:CA

StateBoardofE

ualizatio

n

RS

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Ne

wHousingPermits

Riv

ersid

eCoun

ty,Septem

ber2

007:4

69Units

,D

own

SOURCE:Constr

uctionIndustryResearchBoard

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

an-88

u -88an-89u -89an-90u -90an-91u -91an-92u -92an-93u -93an-94u -94an-95u -95an-96u -96an-97u -97

an-98u -98an-99u -99an-00u -00an-01u -01an-02u -02

an-03u -03an-04u -04

SingeFamiy

uti-Famiy

Median Price for New Homes

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Median Price forNew HomesRiverside County 2Q07 Detached: $432,087, Attached: $285,491


HanleyWood

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

Q1/88

Q1/89

Q1/90

Q1/91

Q1/92

Q1/93

Q1/94

Q1/95

Q1/96

Q1/97

Q1/98

Q1/99

Q1/00

Q1/01

Q1/02

Q1/03

Q1/04

Q1/05

Q1/06

Q1/07

Detac ed

Attac ed

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SH

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NewHom

eSales

Riv

er

sideCoun

ty

(Detach

ed),

2007Q2

Sal

es:2

,

SOURCE:Califor

niaAssociationofREALTORS;

HanleyWood

Asking Rents for Class A&B Apartments

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Asking Rents forClass A&B ApartmentsInland Empire, 2007 Q3: $1,159, Up 2.6% Y-T-Y

/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /


REALFACTS

Vacancy Rates for Class A&B Apartments

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Vacancy Rates forClass A&B ApartmentsInland Empire, 2007 Q3: 7.1%


REALFACTS

VACANCY RATE

0.0

.0

2.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

7.0

8.0

.0

0

Q

/

Q2/

7

Q

/

8

Q

/

8

Q

/

Q2/00

Q

/0

Q

/0

Q

/02

Q2/0

Q

/0

Q

/0

Q

/0

Q2/0

Q

/07

Population Percent Changes

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Population Percent ChangesRiverside County (1971-2005)

SOURCE:U.S.Census Bureau;California Department of Finance;

California Association of REALTORS

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Ri ersi e CountCANation

Sources of Population Growth

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Sources ofPopulation GrowthRiverside County (1981-2005)

THOUSANDS

SOURCE: CA Department of Finance

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Natural ncrease

Net i ration

Net Immigration Vs Domestic Migration

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Net Immigration Vs. Domestic MigrationRiverside County

THOUSANDS

SOURCE: CA Department of Finance

0

0

20

0

0

0

0

2 7 8 2000 200 2002 200 200 200

Net Immigration

Domestic Migration

Household Relocations

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Household RelocationsRiverside County

County ut low n low et ut low

San Bernardino, CA 7,573 8,814 (1,241)

Orange County, CA 4,404 11,363 (6,959)

Los Angeles, CA 4,118 10,019 (5,901)

San Diego, CA 3,388 8,586 (5,198)

Maricopa, AZ 1,325 470 855

Clark, NV 897 607 290Mohave, AZ 422 110 312

Imperial, CA 309 328 (19)

Kern, CA 241 221 20

Sacramento, CA 239 222 17

Total-Top 10 22,916 40,740 (17,824)

All Migration 36,832 52,867 (16,035)Total Number of Households 623,711

Top 10 as % of All Households -2.9%

All Net Mig as % of All Households -2.6%

Source: NARRelocation Report 2005 IRS Data; Item 187-06061, US Census Bureau

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Net Immigration by Ethnic Group

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Net Immigration by Ethnic GroupRiverside County (1990 Census to 2000 Census)

SOURCE: CA Dept. of Finance

hite,Non-Hi panic

Hi panic

A ian/ acific I lan er

lac or Afr. Amer.,

Non-Hi p.

Amer. In ian Ala a

Native,Non-Hi p.

hou an

Number of Households by Ethnicity

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Number of Households by EthnicityRiverside County (1990 Census vs. 2000 Census)

SOURCE: U.S.Census Bureau

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000

hite

Hispanic

Asian/ acific slander

Blac1990 2000

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Population by Age Group

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Population by Age GroupRiverside County (2000-2010)

T ou an

- - - - - -6 6 - +

SOURCE: California Department of Finance;California A ociation of REALTORS

Homeownership Rates

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Homeownership RatesRiverside-San ernardino Metropolitan Area, 2006: 68.3%

SOURCE: U.S.Census Bureau

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Homeownership Rates by Age

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Homeownership Rates by AgeRiverside County (2000 Census)

SOURCE: California Department of Finance;

California Association of REALTORS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

15-24 25-34 35-44 45- 4 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+

2008 F t

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2008 Forecast

U S Economic Forecast

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U.S. Economic Forecast

f

US 2. 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.0 2.7

onfarm oro t

-0.3 1.1 1.7 1. 1.3 1.0

Unem lo ment 6.0 5. .1 4.6 4.6 4.9

2.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.3

eal is osa le

ncome2.4 3.4 1.2 2.6 3.4 3.2

SOU E: alifornia Association of EALTO S

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Sales More Volatile Than Prices

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Sales More Volatile Than Prices

UNITS/MEDIANPRICE

Price Stickiness in Down Market Most Owners Dont Sell


,

,

,

,

,

,

, Sales of istin Detac e Ho es Me ian Price

California Housing Market Forecast

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California Housing Market Forecast

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007p 2008f

SFH Resales

thousan s601 8 624 7 625 0 477 5 367 5 334 5

Change 5 1 3 8 0 04 23 6 23 0 9 0

Me ian rice

thousan s$372 7 $450 8 $524 0 $556 6 $576 0 $553 0

Change 17 9 20 9 16 2 6 2 3 5 4 0

30 r FRM 5 8 5 8 5 9 6 4 6 5 6 5

1 r ARM 3 8 3 9 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 2


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Closing Comments

C li o ni Hou ing Cycl nd M hip

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C li o ni Hou ing Cycl ndM hip1970-2007

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California vs U.S. Median Prices

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,

,

,

,

,

,

California

US


Biggest Key To Success in 2007

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gg y-From Top Producers-

People will not take the time to properly research andunderstand the market, particularly in these

conditions. They need to know I am doing it for them,

which I why Iwill not reduce my marketing

spendingin this market.Continuing to advertise on the Internet not cutting

marketing.

I have earned a reputation as a market expert. I need

to really know the market statistics, so prospects

know how experienced and knowledgeable I am.

C.A.R. 2007 Top Producer In-Depth Study

Things to Consider:

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Things to Consider:

1. Get ack to asics: Open ouses, Double Your Efforts2. E pand Your Sphere of Influence

3. Focus Find Your Niche

4. Dont take listings from unrealistic sellers

5. REO Short Sales Auctions6. Commercial Properties

7. First-time buyers

8. No one rings the bell when the market turns

9. People are very interested in real estate you are the e pert!

What its all about

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We did the impossible.....bought a house in SouthernCalifornia! Papers sent to escrow today!

Please make a note of our new address

Moving day is Sunday September 30th, so come help,please!

3 tiny bedrooms, 1 full bath, 1 3 4 bath, laundry room, twocar garage, fire place, swimming pool, the empty lot ne tdoor, and a lot of fi ing up to do 1200 square feet

What its all about

What its all about

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Realtor 2.0

Books

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Then Now

Dating

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Then Now

Job Searching

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Then Now

Travel

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Then Now

Rental Search

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Then Now

Daily Newspaper Readership by Age Group

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DailyNewspaper Readership by Age Group

Percentage Of Business Generated

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From The Internet

Q: What percentage ofyour real estate transactionsin the past 12 months originatedwith an Internetcontact?

1

2

0

0

1

2

0

10

20

0

0

0

200 200 200 200 2007

Percent with 0 or more of usiness lead from the Internet Mean Value

Computers and technology give REALTORSt l th i b i

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more control over theirbusiness

Agree

Disagree

Not sure

Under ears ofAge + ears All REALTORS

Q: Please tell me ifyou agree with the followingstatement: Computers and technology giveREALTORS more control over theirbusiness.

Most Important Purchase ForY R id ti l R l E t t B i

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Your Residential Real Estate Business

7

20

22None

Ne computer

ands free cell phone

andheld Internet de ice

Mar eting farming materials

ome office related e penses

Laptop ireless or iFi Internet

oaching program

ontact management soft are

ireless Internet forhome

Q: hat do you consider to be your mostimportant purchase foryour real estate business

in the last 2 months?

Selected listing ofhighest fre uency responses.

Technology related

-In The Last 12 Months-

REALTORS Use of Technology in Field

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89

73

11

27

es

o

2006 2007

Q: Doyou use your laptop computeror tabletcomputerwhen you conduct residential real estatebusiness in the field?

REALTORS Use of Technology in Field

Use of Laptop or Tablet Computer in Field

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REALTORSGoing Wireless

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Q: Do you have a handheldwireless Internet device

e.g. Blackberry/Treo) foryour residential real estatebusiness?

Have a handheldwireless Internet deviceforyour residential real estate business

222007

200

REALTORSGoing Wireless

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15

16

24

2005

2006

2007

Q: Do you use your laptop or other computer on a

Wireless orWiFi Internet connection at other locationssuch as internet cafs Starbucks hotels etc?

Utilizing Internet Cafs Starbucks Hotels Etc

REALTORS Responding to Emails From Clients

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11

18

8

21

15

28nstantl

Wit in 30 inutes

Wit in 1Hour

Wit in 2 Hours

Wit in 4Hours

1business da

Q: How often do ou answer emails from clients?

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REALTORS Have Personal Web Sites

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41

52

56

58

52

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Features REALTORS Use For Online Listings

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0

15

29

38

83ultiple pictures/Slideshow

Virtual tour

nteractive aps

ortgage/Financial

calculators

o e

Valuation/ o parative

arket Anal sis Tools

Q: Which of the following do ou t picall include

when ou post our propert listings on the Web?READ & ROTATE

Aided Responses

REALTORSPromote This Listings on WebVia Search Engines And Classified Web Sites

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-Via Search Engines And Classified Web Sites-

4es

o

Q: Do you promote your listings on search engines

and classifiedweb sites?

8

31

53

5Local newspaperweb site

ahoo Real Estate

oogle

raigslist org

Web Sites Used =9Promote Listings

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www.car.org/selftest

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Inte net u e .T aditional u e

Per ent e f ll mebuyer ur eyed

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Per ent e f ll mebuyer ur eyed

62%

70% 72%

38%

30% 28%

56%

45%41%37%

28%

72%

63%59%

55%

44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Internet Buyer r diti nal Buyer

Type of Internet Connection

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35%

25%

0%

52%

22%

0%

61%

24%

14%

0%

71%

1%

71%

26%

2%

1%

40%

26%

3%

25%

Broadband

Employer's corporate T1/ other

business broadband

Dial-up

Wireless Internet Connection

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Weeks Considered Buying A Home

Before Contacting Agent

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Before Contacting Agent

6.35.8 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.8

7.6

2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0

4.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Internet Buyers Traditional Buyers

Number Of Homes Previewedwith Agent

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7.9 7.5 7.16.1 6.2 6.7

9.3

15.1 15.2 15.2 15.4 14.415.4

20.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007


Weeks Spent Looking For Home With Agent

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2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.2

5.2

6.4 6.6 6.77.1 7.0 7.1

8.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007


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Most Important Reasons For Selecting AnAgent

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Agent

20%

27%

15%

17%

7%

9%

38%

17%

26%

0%

32%

66%48%

52%

2%

7%

Seemed to be the most responsive

Offered best deal/lowest commission rate

Best prepared

Most qualified

Most knowledgeable

Relocation package

Agent's market area was where I wanted to move

Listing agent of the property purchased


Multiple Unaided Responses

B

Slide 117

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BAQ1 Oscar, The offer best deal, especially with the Traditional Buyers is very different from last year. Please keep in mind that 52% of

Traditional Buyers is really 52% of the 28% of Traditional Buyers in the general market -- so the number is not as big as it seems.

Also, there are now firms out there like Trulia, Redfin, etc. who are rebating commission money back to the "buyer."Barry Quarles, 2/26/2007

Importance Of Agents Response TimeIn the Selection Process

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In the Selection Process

69%

21%

10%

0%

0%

31%

30%

24%

15%

0%

Extremely

mportant

Very mportant

Moderately

mportant

Not Very

mportant

Not At All

Important

Internet B yers Traditional B yers

Internet Sites Visited As Part OfHomebuying Process

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y g

81%

80%

54%

40%

24%

22%

17%

7%

80%

Internet listing of a home that I was interested in

Individual real estate agent's web site

Realtor.com

Zillow

Real estate company web sites

Craigslist

Yahoo! Real Estate

HouseValues.com

ca.realtor.com

Slide 119

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BAQ2 Oscar, Google does not show much here, but does when we ask them about their first web site. My best guess is that for the first site,

they're thinking search engine -- consequently Google shows up a lot in one question but hardly at all in the other.

I've checked the data, so this is not a mistake. It's respondents doing what they want as opposed to what we want.Barry Quarles, 2/26/2007

Importance Of Online Features For Homebuyers OR

What to Put on Your Website

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What to Put on YourWebsite

4.8

3.8

4.3

4.2

2.9

4.3

Multiple Pictures/Slide Show

Virtual Tours

Map/Directions

Neighborhood Profile

Agent Contact Option

Mortgage Payment Calculator

Mean Score On A5-point Scale5IsE tremely Important And 1 Is Not At All Important

How Did You First See The Home YouPurchased?

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Purchased?

82%

18%

5%

95%

Real estate

agent

n wn

Internet B ers Traditi nal B ers

67%sawh me ntheInternet

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Means OfCommunication With Real EstateAgent

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Agent

47%

0%

34%

2%

0%

81%

98%

0%

Telephone

calls

E-mail

In person

Fax

Internet Buyers

Traditional Buyers

About How Often Did You ReceiveCommunications From Your Real Estate Agent?

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Communications From Your Real Estate Agent?

Every "x" Days

4.3

6.3

6.2

3.7

6.3

3.7

6.1

4.4

5.9

3.7Internet buyers

Traditi nalbuyers

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

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Satisfaction With Real Estate Agents

Response Time

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p

4.4

2.9

4.2

3.5

3.2

3.8

Internet buyers

raditi nal buyers

First-Ti e home buyers

Repeat home buyers

uyers under age 45

Buyers aged 45 & over

Mean Score OnA 5-point Scale5 IsWell Surpassed E pectations And 1 Is Fell Way elow E pectations

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Reasons For Satisfaction With The RealEstate Agent You Used

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71%

52%

49%

40%

21%

1%

56%

62%

59%

47%

27%

3%

80%

53%

A wa qu ck o re ond

Worked hard on m beha

Nego a ed good dea on m beha

He ed nd he be home orme

L ened o wha we needed

Ke me u o da e on ran ac on

Made ure change , re a r were

aken care o

n erne Bu er rad ona Bu er

From the bookshelf

8/8/2019 Cdar Forecast 110807[1]

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8/8/2019 Cdar Forecast 110807[1]

132/138

8/8/2019 Cdar Forecast 110807[1]

133/138

8/8/2019 Cdar Forecast 110807[1]

134/138

8/8/2019 Cdar Forecast 110807[1]

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8/8/2019 Cdar Forecast 110807[1]

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8/8/2019 Cdar Forecast 110807[1]

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8/8/2019 Cdar Forecast 110807[1]

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Date post:	09-Apr-2018
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Cdar Forecast 110807[1]

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