CEE 129/229 09/22/2009

CEE 129/229AUTUMN 2009

PROF. MARTIN FISCHER, CEEPROF. BEN SCHWEGLER, CHIEF SCIENTIST AT WALT

DISNEYPROF. MIKE MASTRANDREA, IPCC

AUSTIN BECKER (TEACHING ASSISTANT) , E - IPER

Engineering and Policy Responses to Climate Change Impacts on Seaports

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Overview

Introductions and BackgroundProject Overview - CEE SUPERSLR Work to Date

Seminar Speakers this QuarterGradingProject Examples

09/23/2009

Why?

“Ports should effectively prepare for the impacts of climate change to ensure their role as the indispensable nodal points of global logistic systems.”

Resolution of the IAPH, Genoa, Italy May 2009

What would you do with your $1 Investment?

PolicyR&D DesignR&D ConstructionR&D MaterialsInsurance

Non-maritime business?PumpsLocksSeawallsConcrete

Plants

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Climate Change Scenarios

Sea levels to rise .6 – 2 meters by 2100Ocean storms to be more frequent and more

intenseOcean storm tracks to shiftInland flooding to increase

Pfeffer, T. et al. Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise. Science Sept. 5, 2008.IPCC, 2007

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Coastal Development and Ports

Over half of world’s population lives within 200km of the coast (UN, 2001)1

35% coastal pop. growth projected between 1995-2025 (Columbia U.)2

7.187 billion metric tons of seaborne trade in 2006 (AAPA)3

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Impacts on Ports

Photos from Alabama State Port Authority

Katrina $100 Million in Damage to 3 MS Ports

$1.7 Billion in damage to Southern LA ports

IKE$2.4 Billion Damageto Texas ports/waterways

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Who should care about climate change impacts on ports?

Insurance Industry

Policy Makers and

Regulators

Ports

OPTIONS

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Protective Measures

http://www.deltawerken.com/23

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The famous Dutch Deltaworks

20 days after disaster first Deltacommission installed

Their mission: advise the government on the execution of a Deltaplan that would secure the safety of the Delta area in a sustainable way o BUT: without limiting access to Rotterdam & Antwerp

They gave out four ‘advices’ to the government including several types of water structures to be built: dikes, dams, storm surge barriers, sluices & locks.

Dikes

First dikes temporarily restored with bags of sand, then restored to original strength and beyond.

Typical lay-out of a dike

Source: Projectbureau Zeeweringen, 2009

More cost-effective, easy & safe solution: dams!Generally built in two ways (can be combined):

o using so-called open or closed ‘caissons’

o using cableways and dropping concrete blocks in sea

Dams

Source: Stichting Deltawerken Online, 2004

Past

Storm surge barrier

Source: Stichting Deltawerken Online, 2004

Remember the BUT: safety without limiting access to Rotterdam & Antwerp storm surge barriers! o Hollandse IJsselkeringo Maeslantkeringo Hartelkering

Exception: Oosterscheldekering environmental factors beat economic factorso Storm surge barrier instead of damo Biggest project of Deltaplano Movie!

Past

Sluices

Sluice? Water channel controlled at its head by a gate; to regulate water inflow or outflow; no boats!o Sluice in Haringvlietdam to let out excess water to seao Sluice in Brouwersdam to let in salt watero Bath Drain Canal and Sluices

o 8km long, 140m wide, 7m deep, 8.5 million m3 water/day

o Built to assist Oosterschelde- kering and let out excess sweet water to Westerschelde (open estuary of Antwerp)

Source: screenshot from Google Maps

Past

Locks

Source: Wikipedia, 2005

Lock? Device that raises/lowers boats between water of different levels on river and canal waterways

How does it work? Locks located in dams

on navigation routes

Past

Project Overview

Multidisciplinary Project started in Autumn 2007o What is the magnitude of a reasonable response to protect major

coastal ports around the world from a significant SLR (in terms of cost, materials, labor, and time)?

o How would a global effort on that scale compare to the current/projected capacity of the construction industry?

Past Quarterso Global Problem

o Global Construction Capacityo Case Studies

o Aucklando Bremen/Bremerhaveno Chennaio Galveston/Houstono Los Angeles/Long Beacho New Orleans

2 cm/ye

ar (≈

2 met

ers b

y 2100)

1 cm/year (≈ 1 meter by 2100)

.03 cm/year (current rate)

Con

stru

ctio

n C

ap

aci

ty

Time

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Current Project Status

Completed Case Studieso Aucklando Bremen/Bremerhaveno Chennaio Galveston/Houstono Los Angeles/Long Beacho New Orleans

Sebastian Programo Collects user-inputted data

on ports around the world

and can automatically generate a 'minimum credible design' to protect the ports from SLR based on user-defined criteria.

Global Construction Capacity

Survey of Port Directors

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Methodology for Case Studies

Goal: evaluate and strengthen project by performing detailed case studies in different regions

Overall procedure:o Site identificationo Conceptual design alternatives evaluationo Schematic design developmento Incorporation of results in overall project

Tools have been developed to simplify the data collection and design element

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Google Earth

World’s most important 178 ports, integrated into Google Earth

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GIS Model

“Automatically” determines protection length and average structure height

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Sebastian GeoData Management System

Directly in Google Earth

Combines Port Characteristics, Port Polygons, and GIS Model

Adds new User Notes feature for collaboration

See the Wiki for details!

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Global Construction Data Availability

Good Availability Poor Availability

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Coastal Zone 09

Survey of Port Directors Worldwide

How are port administrators considering climate change impacts on their operations on the 50 year time horizon?

Are ports implementing adaptation strategies? What climate assumptions are they basing

their long range plans upon? What information do they consider

necessary to plan for facility maintenance and growth while addressing climate change in the coming 50 years?

Are certain categories of ports or port directors considering these issues more?

07/21/2009

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Analysis

07/21/2009

Port Info

Respondent Info

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Working Group Wiki

http://nemo.underwatershipping.com/doku.php

09/23/2009

Webmaster: Henning Roedel henning.roedel@gmail.com

•Project knowledge

•Central working point for collaboration and sharing information

•Work space for classes and students

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Autumn Quarter 2009

Seminar or Full Course

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Francesca Birks, Nathan Chase, and Amy Leitch

Ports and harbors face a unique set of challenges and opportunities in adapting to climate change and mitigating the contributions resulting from construction and operations. With over 60 years of work in the built environment, Arup draws from experience and forward-thinking R&D to deliver innovative and sustainable designs, including a variety of maritime and waterfront projects.

This presentation will highlight some of the work of Arup Foresight + Innovation, case studies of coastal infrastructure projects, and a look ahead to some of the opportunities and threats brought about by the opening of the Northwest Passage to shipping.

Next WeekAre We Future-Ready?

How Arup is responding to climate change impacts on ports

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Schedule

Oct. 6 – Kris Ebi, Executive Director, IPCC Working Group II Technical Support Unit.

Working Group II - Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Oct. 13 – Miguel Esteban Port Investments Required for Climate Change Adaptation Oct. 20 – Peter Wijsman (ARCADIS)

Incorporating Climate Change in Infrastructure Engineering Oct. 27 - Robert Muir Wood, VP of Research for Risk Management Solutions

(RMS) Climate Change Catastrophe Modeling for the Insurance Industry

Nov. 3 - Ellen Johnk, Executive Director San Francisco Bay Planning CoalitionSea Level Rise Policy Implications for Bay Area Industry  

Nov. 10 – Prof. Fred Raichlen, Professor of Civil Engineering and Mechanical Engineering, Emeritus, Caltech

The Role of Harbor Resonance in Port Operations Nov. 17 – Thomas Kendall, Chief, Planning Branch. US Army Corps of Engineers,

San Francisco District. Planning for Sea Level Rise Within the Corps of Engineers

Dec. 2 – International Assoication of Ports and Harbors Planning for Long Term Climate Changes

Dec. 9 – 4 Credit students give final presentations09/23/2009

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Grading Breakdown

2 Credits (credit/no credit) – Students are expected to attend all presentations and contribute to discussions. In addition, each student must:

Prepare a brief introduction to a speaker for the class. Introductions will be delivered the week prior to the selected speaker’s presentation.

Select readings for the class to help prepare for the selected speaker and generate two questions to help kick off post-presentation discussion.

Participate actively in the online discussion forum (at least 10 thoughtful posts).

Select one final project (see below) to peer review at the end of the quarter.

Students who miss a class will be asked to complete additional tasks at the discretion of the instructor. Missing or being late to more than one class will result in no credit.

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Grading, Cont.

4 Credits (letter grade)– Students are expected to fulfill the requirements above, plus develop an independent project to be presented at the end of the quarter. Students must:

Attend all seminars and working sessions.Choose one seminar presentation and write a 1-2 page

response. Develop an independent contribution to the larger project.

o Exampleso Undertake a case studyo Expand significantly on an existing case studyo Other projects considered upon approval of teaching team

o Guidelineso 20-30 page reporto Final presentationo Delivareables must be posted to the website

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Case Study Example

Select one or more portso Approximately 170 previously identified ports that

have not been studiedRequirements

o Written case study report, following the case study methodology (available online)o Site Identification and Design Conditionso Design Alternativeso Schematic Designo Integration with Overall Project

o Final presentation on the case study

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Other Projects for 4 Credits

o Regional and global assessment of construction capacity and cost and availability of construction materials, equipment, and labor

o Public outreach and dissemination of informationo Web-based tools, Google Earth, conference presentations, et cetera.

o Coastal protection structure designo Apply to multiple ports with similar characteristics worldwide

o International policy and regulatory research on strategies for implementing port protection programs throughout the world

o Parametric modeling in 3D and 4Do Economic strategies for funding and generating incentive structures for port protection

programs o Hydrological modeling for extreme conditions in ports

o Wave impacts, rain and/or river floods, storm surge, tsunamis, etc.o Report-writing on the state of knowledge

o In climate change science, coastal engineering, experience of the Netherlands in coastal engineering, experience of Japan in coastal engineering, etc.

o Environmental and ecosystem services impacts of global sea level rise and coastal protection strategies

o Historical flood events, research into adaptation and mitigation strategies, costs, resource consumption data, etc.

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Questions?