Cellular and Wireless Technology Update · 1 Verizon 146.01 M 0.276 M 2 AT&T 134.22 M 2.081 M 3...

Cellular and WirelessTechnology Update

AICC Meeting. Washington, DC. 2017-06-01.

Syed Zaeem Hosain (“Z”), CTO, Aeris.

[email protected], Twitter: @AerisCTO

© 2017 Aeris Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

� Who is Aeris

– A few slides on our company

� Global cellular trends and technology longevity

– In the USA and around the world

� 5G? LPWAN?

– What are they and when

� US Carrier spectrum holdings

– Where top 4 have spectrum

� Data rates in cellular technologies

– Improvements over time

DiscussionQuestions? Please ask at any point!


Aeris Is…Worldwide IoT support

PresenceHeadquarters: Silicon Valley (Santa Clara)

Operations: Chicago, UK, India, Japan

NOCs: Santa Clara, Las Vegas, London, and Delhi

People>250 people

>50% in Engineering and Operations

Privately held

Aeris Datacenter(bare metal) Cloud-based Datacenter Support Center Call Center


Aeris in NumbersA robust history of growth, stability, and industry advances

6th largestWorldwide in unitsunder management

Operationalconnectivity reach

in 180 countries

>1 billionIoT messages

per day

3rd largestCellular IoT devices

in North America


Globally, Aeris Is 6th LargestNumber of cellular connections for IoT


� Over 9 Billion (non-M2M) by 2020

Mobile Cellular ConnectionsGrowing steadily through 2020 (excluding M2M)

Source: GSMA Intelligence.

© GSMA Intelligence.


Global Cellular TechnologyCellular (including M2M)

Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, Jun 2016


Cellular M2M ConnectionsWorld-wide growth in number of units

Source: 4G Americas, Nov 2015


� Top 7 carriers

– Rest are small (#5 and below combined are less than Aeris)

Carriers in USA – Q1 2017

Rank Carrier Cellular Devices Net Adds

1 Verizon 146.01 M 0.276 M

2 AT&T 134.22 M 2.081 M

3 T-Mobile USA 72.60 M 1.142 M

4 Sprint 58.74 M 0.185 M

5 US Cellular 4.99 M -0.035 M

6 C-Spire (est.) 1 M —

7 Shentel 0.96 M 0.002 M

Source: Fierce Wireless Report, Aug 2016


� Cellular market is saturated

– Large carriers seeing flat or negative unit growth

– Looking for other ways to expand business

� Sprint & T-Mobile merger noise

– On again! Deutch Telecom believes US Feds will allow

� Spectrum auctions

– Mostly T-Mobile, Dish and Comcast bought 600 MHz

– New auctions appear to be slowing down

� New players in play

– Comcast seeking to provide national cellular service

– Dish … still sitting on sidelines with spectrum

USA Carrier News


� Competitive market pressure

– Users expect faster throughput & lower congestion

– Software defined radios enabling rapid deployments

� High cost of new wireless spectrum

– Carriers must use existing licenses more efficiently

– Revenue from IoT not as lucrative as smartphones

� Technologies improving

– Powerful chips allowing new encoding protocols

– And enabling new techniques (e.g., carrier aggregation)

– Technologies now approaching Shannon’s Law limits

Pressures for Technology Change


Top US CarriersDates beyond 2018 subject to change – dual arrows show predicted range

’14 ’16 ’18 ’20 ’22 ’24’15 ’17 ’19 ’21 ’23

2G GSMGPRS / EDGE

3G GSMHSPA / HSPA+

2G CDMA1xRTT / 1x Adv.

4G LTELTE / LTE Adv.

3G CDMAEV-DO Rev. A/B


� USA

– 2G GPRS removed in 2016 (AT&T) + before end of decade (T-Mo)

– 3G HSPA till end of decade (AT&T) + early next decade (T-Mo)

– 2G 1xRTT till end of decade (VzW) + early next decade (Sprint)

– 3G EV-DO removed this decade … perhaps early next decade

– 4G LTE continues through end of next decade … and beyond

� Canada

– Similar schedule as USA (sometimes moves faster)

– 2G GPRS removed before end of this decade

– 2G / 3G CDMA removed by end of this decade

– 3G HSPA till early next decade … perhaps sooner

– 4G LTE deployed in cities and towns

USA and CanadaTechnology longevity trends


� Mexico

– 2G GPRS removed by end of this decade … perhaps later

– 3G HSPA removed early-to-mid next decade … perhaps sooner

– 4G LTE still being deployed in many areas

� LATAM follows North American trends

– 2G GPRS through end of decade … possibly early next decade

– 3G HSPA through mid next decade (but limited coverage)

– 4G LTE still being deployed in many areas

Mexico + LATAM


� Fairly uniform across Northern EU

– Single-nation carriers – congestion not like USA

– 2G GPRS available through middle of next decade

– 3G HSPA (where available) through early next decade

– 4G LTE available in all cities, towns and highways

� Southern EU has slower expansion

– Economic constraints slowing 4G LTE expansion

– 2G GPRS available through middle of next decade

– 3G HSPA (where available) through early next decade

– 4G LTE deployments slower than Northern EU

EuropeLate to LTE (compared to USA)


� China

– Committed to 2G / 3G CDMA / GSM through mid / end next decade

– 4G LTE is not common outside cities

� Japan, South Korea

– Rapid deployment of next-gen technologies … always

– CDMA / GSM replaced soon … by end of this decade

� Australia

– 2G GPRS already removed

– 3G HSPA expansion slowed by 4G LTE deployments

� India and Rest of APAC

– 2G GPRS available through early-to-mid next decade

– 3G HSPA (where available) through mid next decade

– 4G LTE deployments now accelerating

APACDifferent from country to country


1000x higher mobile

data volumes

10-100x higher number of

connected devices

10-100x typical end-user

data rates

5xlower latency

10xlonger battery life

for low-power devices

Up to

10Gbps10 years

50/500 B

devicesFew ms E2E

5G Technical ObjectivesCurrent goals of 5G development

1000x data

volume


5G Service RequirementsNew uses for the High-Speed performance capabilities


4G and 5G Subscriber Projections


ITU Timeline for 5GTimeline and process in the works


� Total of 30 billion IoT devices by 2025

� About 7 billion cellular and LPWA devices by 2025

The Predictions – Machina ResearchNumbers are staggeringly large


� Number of IoT Devices to grow dramatically

– Predictions are typically “billions of units” in next 5 to 10 years

– Fixed consumer / Industrial IoT expected to drive large numbers

– Room for multiple technologies to be deployed

� Control of networks + technology longevity

– Cellular driven by non-IoT applications (i.e., smartphones)

– Technology changes too rapidly for long deployments

– Less-complex LPWA radios have lower pricing

LPWA for IoTIndustry beliefs and predictions driving implementation


� High latency prevents use in mission-critical apps

– Not useful for applications with real-time alert needs

– Limited (none really) roaming capabilities – not continuous data

� Message size may limit high throughput apps

– I.e., no video feeds! ☺

� Networks are sufficient for some IoT markets / apps

– Agriculture (non-precision)

– Smart Cities (parking, lighting, traffic monitor, waste management)

– Smart Metering & Smart Grid (utilities)

– Oil & Gas pipelines (leak, flow monitoring)

– Railway transport systems (asset tracking)

– Healthcare (non-mission-critical)

LPWA Uses / ApplicationsLPWA network solutions do not work for all applications


� “Proprietary” LPWA (Sigfox, Ingenu, LoRa, etc.)

– Unlicensed spectrum deployments

– Public commercial, and private networks

– Achieving full coverage can be expensive

� “Standards” LPWA (NB-IoT, cIoT, EC-GSM, etc.)

– Licensed spectrum deployments

– Public commercial networks from Carriers

– Costs subsidized by smartphone cellular users

Two General CategoriesFor LPWA technologies


� Sigfox

– Developed and initially deployed in France

– Initially very EU focused – now deploying in USA

� Ingenu (former OnRamp Wireless)

– RPMA technology developed and initially deployed in USA

– Initially private networks – now deploying public coverage

� LoRa Alliance

– Association providing LoRaWAN® open standard

– Supported by IBM & Semtech … has other members

The Proprietary LPWA PlayersWith various proprietary and “open” transport technologies


� LTE Category 0 and Category M (LTE-M)

– Standard LTE in narrow bandwidths and slow data rates

� Narrow Band LTE (NB LTE-M or NB-IoT)

– Even slower data rates using even narrower bands

� Extended Coverage GSM (EC-GSM)

– Evolutionary approach for re-farmed 200kHz channels

� “Clean Slate” Cellular IoT (cIoT)

– In standards discussion – may lose to NB-IoT

� 5G Cellular

– Requirements include IoT – no standards till 2020

New Cellular Standards Cellular industry is not standing still


� Different protocols leading to differing performance

– Most are proprietary; LoRa is an open approach

– Success of public networks depends on customer acceptance

Comparison of Current TechnologiesNo common approaches – but targeting same IoT market

Sigfox LoRa Ingenu nWave

Range

(outdoor)< 13 km < 11 km < 20 km 10 – 30 km

SpectrumUnlicensed

868-915 MHz

Unlicensed

868-915 MHz

Unlicensed

2400 MHz

Unlicensed

ISM

Bandwidth 0.1, 0.6 kHz < 500 kHz 1 – 80 MHz ??

Data Rate < 0.1 kbits/sec < 10 kbits/sec < 100 kbits/sec 0.1 kbits/sec

Battery Life > 10 years > 10 years 10-20 years Few-20 years

Availability

Public in some

EU countries;

30 US cities 2016

Private today;

Public networks

may occur

Private today;

31 US cities 2016

Private

networks today


� A number of standards in consideration

– Solutions using existing (licensed) cellular spectrum

– Compatible with existing (or lightly modified) cellular infrastructure

Comparison of new Cellular for IoTSome will not make the cut

cIoT CAT-M NB-IoT EC-GSM 5G (targets)

Range

(outdoor)< 15 km < 11 km < 15 km < 15 km < 15 km

SpectrumLicensed

7-900 MHz

Licensed

7-900 MHz

Licensed

7-900 MHz

Licensed

8-900 MHz

Licensed

7-900 MHz

Bandwidth200 kHz

or dedicated

1.4 MHz

shared

200 kHz

shared

2.4 MHz

shared

??

Shared

Data Rate < 50 kbits/s < 1000 kbits/s < 150 kbits/s 10 kbits/s < 1000 kbit/s

Battery Life > 10 years > 10 years > 10 years > 10 years > 10 years

Availability 2016+ 2016+ 2016+ 2017+ 2020+


� Carriers have declared support for CAT-M

– Verizon claims full coverage already

– AT&T estimated to be 40% complete

– Sprint starting this summer … complete in 2017

� NB-IoT is in the picture

– Verizon will probably support soon

– AT&T still undecided about NB-IoT

– Sprint will deploy by mid-to-late 2018

� Other Standards LPWA

– May not make the cut, since …

– … GSMA only talking CAT-M and NB-IoT

USA Carriers and LPWA


Applications by LTE CategoryOpportunities for all categories …


Verizon Spectrum


AT&T Spectrum


Sprint Spectrum


T-Mobile Spectrum


Cellular Data (Download) Speeds Many orders of magnitude change in our lifetime

Technology Date Theoretical (bits / sec) Multiplier

Analog AMPS modem 1980’s 300 1

Analog AMPS modem Late 1980’s 1,200 4

Analog AMPS modem Early 1990’s 4,800 16

Analog CDPD modem Mid 1990’s 19,200 64

2G GSM GPRS Early 2000’s 144,000 480

2G CDMA 1XRTT Early 2000’s 153,000 510

3G CDMA EV-DO Rev. 0 Mid 2000’s 2,450,000 817

3G CDMA EV-DO Rev. A Mid 2000’s 3,100,000 10,333

3G HSDPA Late 2000’s 14,400,000 48,000

3G HSPA Late 2000’s 21,000,000 70,000

3G HSPA+ Early 2010’s 42,000,000 140,000

4G LTE CAT 3 Late 2000’s 100,000,000 333,333

4G LTE CAT 4 Mid 2010’s 150,000,000 500,000

4G LTE CAT 5 Late 2010’s 300,000,000 1,000,000

5G (target) 2020+ 1,000,000,000 3,333,333

Any additional questions …

Thanks!

Date post:	07-Jul-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	0 times
Download:	0 times

Cellular and Wireless Technology Update · 1 Verizon 146.01 M 0.276 M 2 AT&T 134.22 M 2.081 M 3...

Documents