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CENSAM Annual Workshop, 29 June 2015
Regional Climate Analyses over Southeast AsiaDr. Sri Raghavan
Mr.Liu Jiandong,Dr.Nguyen Ngoc Son, Dr.Vu Minh Tue,
Dr.Liong Shie-Yui
Dr.Chien WangCENSAM, SMART
Mean Annual Rainfall 1986-2005 (mm/day)
TRMM1998-2010
CRU UDEL APHRODITE
GPCC CPC
Precipitation Annual Cycle 1986-2005HANOI BANGKOK KUALA LUMPUR
MANILA PHNOM PENH SINGAPORE
VIENTIENNE YANGON
CMIP5 Global Climate Models
No GCM AtmosphericResolution
Country
1 BCC CSM1.1 2.8° × 2.8° China
2 NCAR CCSM4 0.9° × 1.3° USA
3 CNRM CM5 1.4° × 1.4° France
4 CSIRO MK3.6 1.9° × 1.9° Australia
5 UKMOHadGEM2
1.3° × 1.9° UK
6 IPSL CM5A 1.9° × 3.8° France
7 JAMSTECMIROC5
1.4° × 1.4° Japan
8 MPI ESM-MR 1.9° × 1.9° Germany
9 MRI CGCM3 0.6° × 0.6° Japan
10 NCARCESM CAM5
0.9° × 1.3° USA
CNRM
CSIRO MK 3.6 IPSL CM5
MRI-CGCM3
CRU
Mean Annual Rainfall 1986-2005 (mm/day)
CCSM4 CNRM CM5
MRI CGCM3
ENSEMBLE CRU
Mean Annual Rainfall 1986-2005 (mm/day) - Hovmoller
TRMM BCC CSM CNRM CM5
HadGEM2 MPI ESM MR MRI CGCM3
Mean Annual Cycles 1986-2005 (mm/day) – SEAsian Cities
BANGKOK HANOI YANGON
KUALA LUMPUR
MANILA
VIENTIENNE
Seasonal average rainfall (land only), 1986-2005, mm/day, Southeast Asia (95E to 130E; 10S to 25N)
Seasonal average rainfall (land only), 1986-2005, mm/day, Southeast Asia (95E to 130E; 10S to 12N)
Interann Var. 1986-2005 (mm/day)
TRMM CRU MRI CGCM3
IPSL CM5 BCC CSM CNRM CM5
EOF1
EOF2
FINAL WORDS…
• Objective is not to rank the best or worst
• Despite higher resolutions, the CMIP5 GCMs’ ability to reproduce regional representation of rainfall is rather poor
• Ensemble of GCMs – not bad, but depends on purpose of application
• EOFs suggest that the dominant features yet need to be improved
• Next stage will analyze synoptic circulation features
• A feedback to the GCM community on such regional representation may not be inappropriate