CENSUS 2001 Cornwall County Council The Census And Alternative The Census And Alternative Approaches To Measuring Approaches To Measuring Seasonally Occupied Seasonally Occupied Properties in England and Properties in England and Cornwall Cornwall A Presentation to the British Society for A Presentation to the British Society for Population Studies Conference, Leicester Population Studies Conference, Leicester September 2004 September 2004 By Malcolm Brown By Malcolm Brown Senior Research and Information Officer Chief Executive’s Department Cornwall County Council
Transcript
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The Census And Alternative The Census And Alternative Approaches To Measuring Approaches To Measuring
Seasonally Occupied Properties in Seasonally Occupied Properties in England and CornwallEngland and Cornwall
A Presentation to the British Society for Population A Presentation to the British Society for Population Studies Conference, LeicesterStudies Conference, Leicester
September 2004September 2004
By Malcolm BrownBy Malcolm Brown
Senior Research and Information Officer
Chief Executive’s Department
Cornwall County Council
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The PresentationThe Presentation
• History of Seasonal Propertiy SurveysHistory of Seasonal Propertiy Surveys• DefinitionsDefinitions• TrendsTrends• Confusion About 2001 Census Confusion About 2001 Census
ResultsResults• New Possible Information SourcesNew Possible Information Sources
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Before the 1981 CensusBefore the 1981 Census
• Some Regional/Local StudiesSome Regional/Local Studies
• Some Universities InterestedSome Universities Interested
• Inferences from Vacant Dwellings and Inferences from Vacant Dwellings and Absent Households in CensusAbsent Households in Census
• No National StatisticsNo National Statistics
• South West Economic Planning Council South West Economic Planning Council Survey 1973Survey 1973
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1973 South West Survey1973 South West Survey• QuantitativeQuantitative
– Estimated second homes by parish– Estimated summer lets by district
• QualitativeQualitative– Time spent at second home– Reasons for purchase– Location of main residence– Facilities at second home– Expenditure and Improvements
Six Categories of Unoccupied AccommodationSix Categories of Unoccupied Accommodation
1.1. Vacant New, Never OccupiedVacant New, Never Occupied
2.2. Vacant Under ImprovementVacant Under Improvement
3.3. Vacant OtherVacant Other
4.4. Absent HouseholdsAbsent Households
5.5. Second ResidencesSecond Residences
6.6. Holiday AccommodationHoliday Accommodation
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1981 Census1981 Census
Second ResidencesSecond Residences
• Premises such as company flats, holiday Premises such as company flats, holiday houses and weekend cottageshouses and weekend cottages
• In permanent buildingsIn permanent buildings• Known to be the second residences of people Known to be the second residences of people
who had a more permanent address elsewherewho had a more permanent address elsewhere• Include premises occasionally let to othersInclude premises occasionally let to others
Holiday AccommodationHoliday Accommodation
• Accommodation in permanent buildings let to Accommodation in permanent buildings let to different occupiersdifferent occupiers
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Issues with Data CollectionIssues with Data Collection
• Classification by Enumerators not always easy
• Usually based on visual observation or neighbours not direct contact
• Distinctions between Second Residences and Holiday Accommodation not always clear or consistent
• Even in Post Enumeration Survey 4 of every 5 based on observation or inspection
• 3 of every 4 classifications of Unoccupied Accommodation correct
• Treatment of chalet sites complicated
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Accuracy of the 1981 CensusAccuracy of the 1981 CensusCensus Second ResidencesCensus Second Residences
81% 81% Second Residences Second Residences
81 % 81 % Second Residences or Holiday AccommodationSecond Residences or Holiday Accommodation
10% 10% Absent HouseholdsAbsent Households
Census Holiday AccommodationCensus Holiday Accommodation
90%90% Holiday Accommodation or Second ResidencesHoliday Accommodation or Second Residences
Seasonal PropertiesSeasonal Properties
Overall should have been 11 not 9% of Unoccupied Overall should have been 11 not 9% of Unoccupied AccommodationAccommodation
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1991 Census1991 Census
• Definitions broadly the same as 1981
• Student Accommodation category added
• Absent Households treated as a category of households with residents and divided Enumerated and Imputed
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2001 Census2001 Census
• Household Spaces with No Residents Reduced to Household Spaces with No Residents Reduced to Two Categories:Two Categories:
Second Residences/Holiday AccommodationSecond Residences/Holiday Accommodation• Not differentiated at enumerationNot differentiated at enumeration• Includes all visitor householdsIncludes all visitor households• Still based on information provided by enumeratorsStill based on information provided by enumerators
Vacant Household SpacesVacant Household Spaces• Identified by enumerators as absents, refusals or non-Identified by enumerators as absents, refusals or non-
returns but not subsequently imputedreturns but not subsequently imputed
• Change to Post back SystemChange to Post back System• Foot and Mouth outbreakFoot and Mouth outbreak
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Trends in Number of Seasonal Trends in Number of Seasonal PropertiesProperties
AreaArea 19811981 19911991 20012001
England and England and WalesWales
143500143500 146600146600 150700150700
South WestSouth West 3490034900 3750037500 3840038400
Greater Greater LondonLondon
110400110400 1540015400 1580015800
WalesWales 2260022600 1900019000 1550015500
CornwallCornwall 1300013000 1155011550 1050010500
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Trends in Number of Seasonal Properties (2) Trends in Number of Seasonal Properties (2) 1991-20011991-2001
45 English Counties and Former Counties45 English Counties and Former Counties
• Seasonal Properties up in 35Seasonal Properties up in 35
• Some very big numerical increasesSome very big numerical increasesCumbriaCumbria DevonDevon SuffolkSuffolk14001400 13001300 10001000
• Some very big proportional increases from small basesSome very big proportional increases from small basesNorthamptonshireNorthamptonshireLeicesterLeicester HertfordshireHertfordshire8080 7777 6161
• Two very big decreasesTwo very big decreasesEast SussexEast Sussex CornwallCornwall11001100 10001000
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Trends in Seasonal Properties (3)Trends in Seasonal Properties (3)The 30 Top 1991 DistrictsThe 30 Top 1991 Districts
• 1991 to 2001 Seasonal Properties up in 16, down in 141991 to 2001 Seasonal Properties up in 16, down in 14
• Three London Councils up in 2 down in 1Three London Councils up in 2 down in 1
• Coastal Councils up in 12 down in 10Coastal Councils up in 12 down in 10
• Inland Councils up in 3 down in 2Inland Councils up in 3 down in 2
• Some extraordinary changesSome extraordinary changes
• Second homes becoming more significant everywhereSecond homes becoming more significant everywhere
• More complex lifestyles for more peopleMore complex lifestyles for more people
• More difficult to say where the “second home” is?More difficult to say where the “second home” is?
• Concentrations still in some holiday/retirement areas and Concentrations still in some holiday/retirement areas and LondonLondon
• Very different patters of change in different similar areas Very different patters of change in different similar areas 1991 – 20011991 – 2001
• Census statistics not necessarily low but probably are in Census statistics not necessarily low but probably are in some areassome areas
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Tentative Conclusions (2) and Tentative Conclusions (2) and Lessons for 2011Lessons for 2011
• Inexplicable variations pose major questions about 2001 results Inexplicable variations pose major questions about 2001 results – more research needed– more research needed
• Was enumeration especially in rural areas done hard enough?Was enumeration especially in rural areas done hard enough?
• Would post out and post back in 2011 make things even less Would post out and post back in 2011 make things even less certain?certain?
• Campaign for better enumeration of household spaces in 2011?Campaign for better enumeration of household spaces in 2011?
• Develop other data sources before 2011Develop other data sources before 2011
• Strengthens the case for multiple population definitionsStrengthens the case for multiple population definitions
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Other Possible Sources of Second Other Possible Sources of Second Homes IntelligenceHomes Intelligence
• Council Tax RecordsCouncil Tax Records
• New DevelopmentsNew Developments
• PerceptionsPerceptions
• SurveysSurveys
• Parish PlansParish Plans
• Tourism SurveysTourism Surveys
• Housing SurveysHousing Surveys
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Council Tax RecordsCouncil Tax RecordsGovernment Statistics for 43 South West CouncilsGovernment Statistics for 43 South West Councils
• 27 of them more Council Tax Second Homes than 27 of them more Council Tax Second Homes than Census Seasonal PropertiesCensus Seasonal Properties
• 23 of the 43 have the highest concentration of seasonal 23 of the 43 have the highest concentration of seasonal propertiesproperties
3595035950 Council Tax Second HomesCouncil Tax Second Homes
1358513585 Census Possible Second HomesCensus Possible Second Homes
• Indicative onlyIndicative only
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New Developments Becoming New Developments Becoming Second HomesSecond Homes
Developing Work by Restormel Borough CouncilDeveloping Work by Restormel Borough Council
• Checking addresses Council Tax bills sent to for new Checking addresses Council Tax bills sent to for new propertiesproperties
• 37 thought the % was more than Census rate37 thought the % was more than Census rate
• Figures withinFigures within
• Average PercentageAverage Percentage
5%5% 10%10% 20%20% 30%30% 40%40% More More than 40%than 40%
1919 66 99 77 11 22
CensusCensus PerceptionsPerceptions
10.210.2 19.819.8
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New Surveys (1)New Surveys (1)
Multi Disciplinary Research Partnership Multi Disciplinary Research Partnership Established – Lead PartnersEstablished – Lead Partners
• Rural Community CouncilRural Community Council• 1 University1 University• 2 Colleges2 Colleges• County CouncilCounty Council
A quantitative and qualitative survey of holiday A quantitative and qualitative survey of holiday homes and their owners in Cornish rural homes and their owners in Cornish rural communitiescommunities
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New Surveys (2)New Surveys (2)
• Detailed brief being worked up and funding being Detailed brief being worked up and funding being soughtsought
• Detailed field work in selected communitiesDetailed field work in selected communities
Key AimsKey Aims
• More accurate quantification of second homes and More accurate quantification of second homes and their spatial distributiontheir spatial distribution
• Profile of ownersProfile of owners
• Socio-cultural contextSocio-cultural context
• Economic influencesEconomic influences
• Social and planning responsesSocial and planning responses
