CERN Geneva23 October 2013

Renewable Energy in the Present and the Future

Consequences of fossil energydependence

• The resources are not evenly distributed worldwide Supply security risk Interest to replace imports with indigenous resources

• Fossil fuels are costly and prices fluctuate Some countries spend more than 10% of GDP on fossil fuel imports IEA projects that fossil fuel prices will continue to rise Global shale gas prospects outside US are unclear Minigrid and offgrid solutions for electrification of remote communities – diesel

based power generation is very expensive• Significant local air pollution damages• The latest IPCC report stresses the risk of climate change

Burning of fossil fuels, especially coal, is a prime source of GHG emissions• Renewable energy and energy efficiency are widely accepted as sustainable solutions

UN SE4ALL initiative calls for a doubling of RE share and doubling of efficiency

gains by 2030 IRENA as hub for renewable energy

2

3

International Renewable Energy Agency

Established April 2011

Mission: Accelerate deployment of renewable energy

Scope: Hub, voice and source of objective information for

renewable energy

Members: 161 partner countries; 119 ratified members

(global scope)

Mandate: Sustainable deployment of the six RE resources

(Biomass, Geothermal, Hydro, Ocean, Solar, Wind)

Structure: Three programmatic divisions CSP, IITC, KPFC

Location: Headquarters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Innovation and Technology Centre IITC, Bonn, Germany

Director-General: Adnan Amin

About IRENA

4

International Renewable Energy Agency: 119 Member Countries and growing rapidly

  Members of the Agency   Signatories/States in Accession  

More than 160 partner countries

1RENEWABLE ENERGY SITUATION AND TRENDS

5

Globally 18% RE in Total Final Energy Consumption in 2010Half is traditional biomass, 8.4% modern renewables

Source: Global Tracking Report,2013

Overall share of renewable energy has remained quite flat, albeit some sources grew exponentially from a small base

Growth 1990-2010 by country

About half of the new electricity generation capacity worldwide is based on renewable

energyThe share has doubled in recent years

9Source: IRENA

Global capacity additions 201141 GW Wind30 GW Hydropower30 GW Solar PV <1 GW Solar CSP 5 GW Biomass<1 GW Geothermal

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Global capacity additions 2012 45 GW Wind 29 GW Hydropower 31 GW Solar PV<1 GW Solar CSP 5 GW Biomass<1 GW Geothermal

Clean energy market size USD 269 bln/yr (investment)Nearly double with inclusion of:• Large hydro • End-use sector equipment (heatpumps etc)• Biofuel feedstock

Installed capacity1100 GW hydro300 GW wind100 GW solar PV70 GW biomass15 GW geothermal

LCOE ranges and averagesRE is cost effective today in many cases

10

2RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTIONS FOR 2030

11

What does it mean to double the RE share?

12

20302010 2020

10

20

30

(%)

18

RE share incl. traditional biomass

SE4ALL target

9RE share without

traditional biomass

What does doubling mean?

• Today 18% renewables including 9% modern renewables

• Business-as-usual 2030: 21% renewables

• Target: 30-36% renewables

• Gap: 9-15%

• 36% renewables – up to half of global GHG reductions (CO2 and CH4)

TFEC = Total Final Energy ConsumptionTFEC share covers direct use of renewable energy plus energy and heat from renewable sources Global Tracking Framework – May 2013

36

% TFEC

30

12

Business as usual

9-15%GAP

REMAP 2030 - Scope

26 countries representing 75% of global energy demand by 2030

Represents 58% of world population in 2012, 56% in 2030

60% of global PPP in 2012

Country Dialogue is crucial and ongoing

Results are aggregated to produce a global cost curve 13

REMAP Countries:AUSTRALIABRAZILCANADACHINADENMARKECUADORFRANCEGEMANYINDIAINDONESIAITALYJAPANMALAYSIAMEXICOMOROCCONIGERIARUSSIASAUDIA ARABIASOUTH AFRICASOUTH KOREATONGATURKEYUNITED ARAB EMIRATESUNITED KINGDOMUNITED STATESUKRAINE  

Methodology at a Glance

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IRENA technology database

IRENACosting studies

Learning curves/cost reduction

assessments

Sectoral/technology studies

Country Reference Scenarios

Potentials

Reference FF/Nuclear technologies

Cost curves

Fuel prices, taxes, subsidies, capital cost

External effects

Substitution cost

REMAP Options

The Reference Scenario

• Includes all policies in place or likely to be put in place in

the coming years

• Some countries have scenarios and objectives for 2030,

others not

• Supplemented by IEA WEO 2012 data

• Reference scenario includes efficiency gains

• No cost assessment of the reference scenario

• Planning framework comparison will be part of the analysis

15

How to double the RE shareAccess and efficiency can help to double the share

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

RE s

hare

(%)

2010

leve

l

Refe

renc

e ca

se

REM

AP O

ption

s

Mod

ern

ener

gy a

cces

s

Ener

gy e

ffici

ency

Earl

y re

tirem

ent

Mod

al s

hift

Elec

trifi

catio

nIn

dust

ry r

eloc

a-tio

n

Brea

kthr

ough

te

chno

logi

es

SE4ALL

Access and EE REMAP RE+/radical change

Renewable energy policy Other energy policy Energy revolution

Total renewables

grow from:

• 20% (Ref. 2030)

• 29.3% (REMAP)

Modern renewables

grow from:

• 8.7% (2010)

• 14.9% (Ref.

2030)

• 27.3% (REMAP)

Traditional biomass

declines from 8% to

5% in Ref. 2030 to

2% in REMAP**assessment imprecise b/c large

amount of traditional biomass is

consumed outside of REMAP 25

countries

Impact of all REMAP options Combined DRAFT

8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28-65

-45

-25

-5

15

35

55

TOTAL - REMAP 25 (N) REMAP Options

Share of renewable energy use in REMAP TFEC (Reference 2030 - REMAP 2030) (%)

Ave

rag

e I

ncre

men

tal

co

st

of

su

bti

tuti

on

(U

SD

/GJT

FE

C)

353 REMAP Options

Weighted Average

Substitution Cost=

+1.37 USD/GJ TFEC

Additional RE

Consumption

REMAP:

41 EJ/yr

Total Annualized

Substitution

Cost/year

57 Bln (USD 2010)

(<1% of 4 trillion total

annualized cost for

350 options)

Growth of modern Renewablesfrom 9 to 15%

Traditional biomass in Reference Scenario (to be replaced) - from 19.5 to 15 %

REMAP Options – from 15 to 28%

REMAP 25 Cost CurveDRAFT

REMAP Options Cost Curve with Tech/Resource Breakdown DRAFT

19

-12

-7

-2

3

8

13

18

23

28

Average Weighted Cost of Substitution (3.4 USD/GJ)

9.11.13.15.17.19.21.23.25.27.29.

REMAP 25 Cost Supply Curve (international)by RE resource (2010-2030)

Solar PVCSPSolar ThermalGeo-thermalBiomass Tradi-tionalBiomass OtherBiofuelBiogasHydroWind OnshoreWind OffshoreOceanRE Mobil-ity

Cumulative Renewable Energy Share in TFEC (%)

Ave

rag

e In

cre

me

nta

l Co

st o

f Su

bst

itutio

n (

US

D 2

01

0/G

J T

FE

C)

Reference Case Developments

Modal Shift to TramHeat Pumps (buildings)

Hydro (large)

Wind Onshore

Geothermal (power)Bioethanol (2nd Gen)

Biomass CHP (district heat)Biodiesel

Solar Water HeatingBioethanol (1st Gen)

Biomass Heat/CHP (industry)Solar PV (utility)Modern Biomass Cooking

Wind Offshore

Biomass Heat (buildings)

Hydro (small)

Solar Thermal Heating/CoolingWind Onshore (early retirement)

Solar PV (rooftop)Biomas Gasification (industry)

Solar CSP w/ Storage Solar Thermal (Industry)

Plug-in HybridBiomass (power)Hydrogen Transport

Battery Electric Vehicles

REMAP options - sectoral Power sector represents only one third of total potential DRAFT

How to double the global RE share?

• Up to a third RE is possible at approximately zero cost by 2030

• However policies in place yield only 20% RE in 2030

RE potential is not yet fully reflected in the policy plans and scenarios

• Power sector accounts for around 40% of total potential

The role of end use sectors is critical to meet the doubling objective

• Sustainable biomass plays a key role, around 60% of total potential

Residues, energy crops, more efficient use of resources

• Electrification can increase RE deployment

For example electric vehicles

• Technology innovation can push the envelope

More affordable technology

Increase of the RE potential

(offshore wind, advanced biofuels, grid integration technology, etc)21

3RE TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION

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Innovation matches new energy market needs with technological solutionsMost innovation is gradual, not disruptive

23

Bio-refineries

Floating Turbines

Wave Energy Technology

Fully Integrated Residential Solar Technologies

Have 

http://images.nrel.gov/

Innovation supports wholetechnology life cycle

DemonstrationApplied R&D Market Development

Commercial Diffusion

Market Pull

Technology Push

Basic R&D

RD&D cooperation③

Standardization②①

< Setting enabling Innovation Policy Framework >

Enabling technology deployment④

Patenting/ Licensing

Source: IRENA (2012)

DiffusionCommer - cialisation

Demon - stration

Research & Development

Basic Research

Product/ Technology Push

Market PullSupply

•Academia

•Research centres

•Business

Demand

•Consumers

•Energy sector

•Government

•Exports

Innovation policy frameworks

Framework conditions: macro economic stability, education and skills development, innovative business climate, IP protection etc.

The Innovation System

Standardization across the technology life cycle

25Source: - Adapted from IEA - ETP 2008

Technology life cycle

Technology standards

• Reliability and performance of

technologies

• Demand, market acceptance,

investment and uptake of

technologies

• Technical capacity on testing,

certification and reliability in

developing countries

• 714 international standards were identified

• These are not widely know or deployed

• International standards are lacking in some areas

• Standards can

Provide a detailed technical basis for laws and

regulations

Support public and private tendering processes

Provide insights regarding latest technology developments

and best practices

Support technology markets based on sound quality and

health & safety (H&S) requirements

Also energy management standards eg ISO 50 001

Standardization – Benefits forcountries

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Patents for RET

IRENA’s Working Paper

The role of patents in RET innovation still needs to be better understood.  Different views – Incentivize / Restrain

Patents seen as an engine for innovation in R&D intensive sectors. Further analysis is still required for RET sector.

Patenting in most renewable energy areas has increased more than five-fold in the last two decades – more than 200 000 patents in place

Few renewable energy patents have been filed outside OECD countries and China

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Patents can provide additional information on innovation trends

Cumulative patent families in desalination and renewable energy

Source: WIPO (2011) 

Key remarks on RE Patents

RET patent information can provide:

• Which countries and innovators are active

• Which countries are potential markets

• Trends of technology developments

• International research and co-operation as indicated by co-inventionGovernments, through

their patent offices, must be stewards of patent qualitySource: WIPO (2011) 

THANK YOU !WWW.IRENA.ORG

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