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Executive Summary
High market share in target niches Financially stable, solid balance sheet and Strong
banking relationship
1/3/2005
5/3/2005
9/3/2005
1/3/2006
5/3/2006
9/3/2006
1/3/2007
5/3/2007
9/3/2007
1/3/2008
5/3/2008
9/3/2008
1/3/2009
5/3/2009
9/3/2009
1/3/2010
5/3/2010
9/3/2010
1/3/2011
5/3/2011
9/3/2011
1/3/2012
5/3/2012
9/3/2012
1/3/2013
5/3/2013
9/3/2013
1/3/2014
5/3/2014
9/3/2014
1/3/2015
5/3/2015
9/3/2015
1/3/2016 $-
$20 $40 $60 $80
$100 $120 $140
Share Price Movement
ESL: $81.2
Market Profile (02/23/2016)Closing Price $55.7152-Week High/Low $45.12/$120.45 Avg. Volume (3M) 316,127 Diluted Shares Out. 31,215,xxx Market Cap $1.65BBeta 1.4EV/EBITDA 14.27x
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
BUY
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Seals & DuctsWire Management
Countermeasure FlaresChaff & Combustible Ordnance
Aerospace SwitchesMilitary Trainer Cockpits
Enhanced Vision Systems
Power Distribution & Components
Pressure & Temperature Engine Sensors
Commercial Aerospace Connectors
Advanced Materials
Avionics & Controls
Sensors & Systems
Business Segments & Products
US50%
Outside US50%
Manufacture Balance
Commercial Aerospace
50%Defense
30%
Others20%
Product Balance
Avionics & Controls
41%
Sensors36%
Advanced Materials
23%
Revenue by Segment
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Company Overview
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Strategic Acquisitions
& Divestitures
Stable R&D Capital
Injection
Lean Transformation Restructure
20082009
20102011
20122013
20142015
2016E2017E
2018E2019E
2020E$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%
Projected Growth and Revenue
Weight Adjusted Revenue Weight Adjusted Growth
Growth Strategy
Commercial Aerospace Replacement of obsolete aircraft Increase demand for air travel Large commercial aircraft expected to grow
5% through 2019 Defense
U.S. spending cut (39% of global expenditure) Spending is expected to decline by 3-5% in
2016
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Com-mercial Aero-space79%
Defense21%
Revenue by Industry Sectors
Industry Overview
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Consumers
Operations Products
• High Switching Cost
• Premium Quality & Reputation
• Lean Manufacturing Process
• Restructuring• Strategic Sourcing• Global Footprint• Average
management experience in Esterline – 10 years
• Diverse Product lines
• #1 or #2 market share in target niche
• High quality products
• Strong Intellectual Properties
Competitive Advantages
Revenue AnalysisSegmented Revenue (Statistical)
$- $500,000
$1,000,000 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $2,500,000
Revenue Projection (Billions)
Net Sales
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
$500,000$700,000$900,000
Avionics & Controls (Millions)
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020$200,000$400,000$600,000$800,000
$1,000,000$1,200,000
Sensors & Systems (Millions)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000$600,000
Advanced Materials (Millions)
0.04%
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
3.15%
10.52%
Adjusted Growth: 4.17%
Acquisitions & Divestitures01/03/2011
Acquired Eclipse
Electronic Systems
07/26/2011 Acquir
ed Souria
u Group
02/15/2013 Acquired
Gamesman (Sensors & System)
12/20/2013
Acquired Sunbank
(AC)
02/02/2015 Acquired
Barco $175M (AC)
06/09/2015
Divestiture of
Eclipse Electroni
cs Systems
07/20/2015
Divestiture of
Pacific Aerospac
e & Electronic
s
11/25/2015
Divestiture of
Wallop Defense System Assets
(Defense)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015$0$50,000
$100,000$150,000$200,000Acquisition Amt. (Millions)Strategic divestitures
and acquisitions showing potential synergy in the
futureCompany Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Profitability & Liquidity
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
201520
16E20
17E20
18E20
19E20
20E
$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000
$100,000$120,000$140,000$160,000$180,000
0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%
Net Income vs. Profit Margin Ratio (Millions)
Net Income Profit margin Ratio 2010201
1201
2201
3201
4201
5201
6E201
7E201
8E201
9E202
0E -
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Current Ratio
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Capitalization Analysis
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
E20
17E
2018
E20
19E
2020
E$0
$500,000$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$3,000,000
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
Total Long-term Debt to Equity (Billion)
Long-term Debt, net of Current Maturities Total Shareholders' EquityTotal Long-term Debt to Equity
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Valuation Methodology
Discounted Cash Flow
Relative Valuation
Weighted Valuation
• Terminal value analysis• FCF analysis
• EV/EBITDA • 60% DCF• 40% Relative Valuation
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020$0
$500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
$3,000,000,000
0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%
Segmented Revenue Growth Analysis (Billions)
Avionics & Controls Sensors & SystemsAdvanced materials Segment Adjusted Growth
ProbabilityWbull 10%Wbase 20%
Wconservative 70%Total 100%
2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Projected Revenue
2,022,220 2,101,560 2,182,028 2,261,995 2,339,521 Projected Growth 14.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.4%
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
DCF Growth Analysis
Cost of EquityRisk Free Rate 2.3%
Adjusted Beta 1.4
Market Return 9.5%
Cost of Equity 12.6%
Cost of Debt KdFor Fiscal Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 5Y F
Interest Expense 40,633 46,238 39,638 33,010 30,090 N/Adebt issuance cost 1,069 8,818 6,211 4,295 8,467 N/A
Total Debt, Fiscal Year End 1,000,000 848,700 689,100 622,500 881,400 N/AAverage Debt 806,800 924,350 768,900 655,800 751,950 N/A
Tax Rate 15.7% 20.9% 16.2% 20.9% 16.3% N/ACost of debt 4.4% 4.9% 5.1% 4.6% 4.5% 4.7%
WACC: 10.5%
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
DCF WACC Assumption
24%
76%
Total Debt
Total Equity
DCF CalculationMarket Capitalization
(DCF) $2,735,385,931
Shares Outstanding 29,630,000
Share Price $92.3
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E (TV) Cash Flow $236,231 $98,601 $170,759 $173,937 $206,230 $3,297,397
WACC: 10.5%
DCF Valuation Output
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015ESL 8.7x 9.1x 8.9x 10.4x 10.9x 14.3x
MGGT 7.1x 6.9x 6.8x 10.1x 12.3x 8.7xBAE 4.6x 4.3x 5.1x 7.6x 8.3x 10.8x
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0x2.0x4.0x6.0x8.0x
10.0x12.0x14.0x16.0xHistorical EV/EBITDA
ESL MGGT BAE
Relative Valuation – EV/EBITDA
Bull (14.3x)EV from EBITDA 4.0 B Equity Value 3.3B Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 29,630,000 Intrinsic Value per Share $112.5
Base (11.2x)EV from EBITDA 3.2 B Equity Value 2.5 B Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 29,630,000 Intrinsic Value per Share $84.0
Conservative (8.7x)EV from EBITDA 2.5 B Equity Value 1.8 B Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 29,630,000
Intrinsic Value per Share $59.7
Bull Base Conservation$0$20$40$60$80
$100$120
Intrinsic Value per Share
Bull Base ConservationShare Price $112.5 $84.0 $59.7
Weight 15% 25% 60%Weighted $16.9 $21.0 $35.8
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
$73.7
Relative Valuation Output
Discounted Cash Flow
$92.3
Relative Valuation
$73.7
Weighted Valuation
$81.2
60% 40%
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Target Price
Feb. 2016 Potential federal securities laws violations
2013$20 million penalty with DDTC to resolve the
violation of International Traffic in Arms Regulations
Probability
High
ER1 MR3 OR2
Medium MR2
OR1MR1ER2
RR3 RR2
Low RR1
Low Medium High Impact
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Regulatory Risk
Failure to meet regulatory requirements (RR1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015$0$50,000
$100,000$150,000$200,000Acquisition Amt.
Probability
High
ER1 MR3 OR2
Medium
MR2OR1
MR1ER2
RR3 RR2
Low RR1
Low Medium High Impact
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Operation Risks Acquisition and integration Risk (OR1)
Backlog (OR2)
Unfavorable market conditions due to demand reductions (MR1)
50%30%
20%
Market BalanceCommercial AerospaceDefenseHigh-end, Non-aero applications
• Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA)• Aircraft delivery
Probability
High
ER1 MR3 OR2
Medium
MR2OR1
MR1ER2
RR3 RR2
Low RR1
Low Medium High Impact
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020125013001350140014501500155016001650
Aircraft Delivery Forecast
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Market Risks
ConclusionStrong
Competitive Patented
Technology
Large Market Share in Niche
Market
Strategic Acquisitions and
Divestitures
Strong Liquidity Measures BUY
Company Overview Industry Financial
Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Backlog Risk Subject to cancel
Exposure from Strict Regulatory Risk
Q&A
Company Overview Industry Valuation Financial
Analysis Risk Analysis Conclusion
Opportunities• Robust new contracts• Growth in demand for commercial
aircraft• Surge in defense spending by
developing countries
Threats• Intense competition• Heavy regulations in airline
industry• Large Backlog subject to cancel
Weaknesses• Highly dependent on US
government contracts and subcontracts
Strengths• Diversification• Stable Customer Source• Strong R&D Power• Actively Managed
Acquisitions & Divestiture
Appendix: SWOT Analysis
Bargaining Power of Customers
Bargaining Power of Suppliers
Threat of SubstitutesThreat of New Market Entrants
Competitive Rivalry
0
1
2
3
4
5
Porter’s Five Forces
Company Overview Industry Valuation Financial
Analysis Risk Analysis Conclusion
Appendix: Competition