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Challenges for sustainable energy and interactions with other sustainability goals Volker Krey Deputy Program Director IIASA Energy Program 28 September 2016
Challenges for sustainable energy and interactions with other sustainability goals
Volker KreyDeputy Program DirectorIIASA Energy Program
28 September 2016
Energy and Climate Change
Image: Joeri Rogelj; History: HadCRUT4
“Holding the increase in the globalaverage temperature to well below 2 °Cabove pre-industrial levels and to pursueefforts to limit the temperature increaseto 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”
The Long-Term Temperature GoalParis Agreement Article 2
Paris Agreement
Image: Joeri Rogelj; History: HadCRUT4
“Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit thetemperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”
The Long-Term Temperature Goal, Paris Agreement Article 2
Paris climate ambition
“In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2,Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon aspossible […], and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordancewith best available science, so as to achieve a balance betweenanthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhousegases in the second half of this century”
Paris Agreement Article 4
Emissions implicationsHow much remains for 1.5°C and 2°C?
For 2°C >66% (is this “well below”?)• About 1000 GtCO2 after 2011
(IPCC AR5 SYR)• 590–1240 GtCO2 after 2015
(post-AR5 literature)
For 1.5°C• 550 GtCO2 after 2011
(IPCC AR5 SYR)• 650 GtCO2 since 2010-2020 average
CMIP5 (present-day adjusted)
Context:• Current annual emissions ~40 GtCO2/yr• Until 2011: about 1900 GtCO2 emitted
Figure: IPCC AR5 WGI SPM.10
Scenario implicationsInternal consistency Paris Agreement
Source: IPCC AR5 Scenario Database; Rogelj et al. 2015
range of INDC estimates for 2030
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
MicrochipCommercial
aviation
TelevisionVacuum
tubeGasolineengine
Electricmotor
Steam engine
Nuclearenergy
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Global Primary EnergyIndustrial Revolution until Today
Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Source: Riahi et al. (2012)
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass Microchip
Commercialaviation
TelevisionVacuum
tubeGasolineengine
Electricmotor
Steam engine
Nuclearenergy
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al. (2012)
Global Primary EnergySupply focus – high Nuclear
Global Primary EnergyEfficiency focus – no CCS, no Nuclear
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass Microchip
Commercialaviation
TelevisionVacuum
tubeGasolineengine
Electricmotor
Steam engine
Nuclearenergy
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al. (2012)
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Nuclear phase-out (choice)
Global Primary EnergyEfficiency focus – no CCS, no Nuclear
Source: Riahi et al. (2012)
Gas stagnating
Coal phase-out (necessary)
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Limited variable Renewables (choice)
Gas expansion (with CCS)
Global Primary EnergyEfficiency focus – limited Bioenergy and variable Renewables
Source: Riahi et al. (2012)
Some Coal (with CCS)
Water Use in the Energy Sector
Impact of Energy Sector on WaterWithdrawal Thermal PollutionConsumption
Baseline
Source: Fricko, Parkinson et al., 2016
Impact of Energy Sector on WaterWithdrawal Thermal PollutionConsumption
Baseline
Source: Fricko, Parkinson et al., 2016
Impact of Energy Sector on WaterAlternative Technology Choices for 2C (intermediate energy demand)
Withdrawal Thermal PollutionConsumption
Uncertainty Range
Source: Fricko, Parkinson et al., 2016
Impact of Energy Sector on WaterHigh Energy Demand
Withdrawal Thermal PollutionConsumption
Uncertainty Range
Source: Fricko, Parkinson et al., 2016
Impact of Energy Sector on WaterLow Energy Demand (Efficiency)
Withdrawal Thermal PollutionConsumption
Uncertainty Range
Source: Fricko, Parkinson et al., 2016
Impact of Energy Sector on WaterEfficiency + Water Adaptation Policies
Withdrawal Thermal PollutionConsumption
Uncertainty Range
Source: Fricko, Parkinson et al., 2016
Equity and Energy Poverty
Final Energy – Regional Distribution
Source: Global Energy Assessment – Grubler et al. (2012)
2005
Cumulative Population0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %
Cum
ulat
ive
Con
sum
ptio
n
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
Global Lorenz Distributions
Cumulative Population0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %
Cum
ulat
ive
Shar
e
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
Global Lorenz Distributions
Wealth per capita 2014
2000
Cumulative Population0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %
Cum
ulat
ive
Shar
e
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
Global Lorenz Distributions
GDP (MER) per capita 2000
2013
Cumulative Population0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %
Cum
ulat
ive
Shar
e
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
Global Lorenz Distributions
GDP (PPP) per capita 2000
2013
Cumulative Population0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %
Cum
ulat
ive
Shar
e
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
Global Lorenz Distributions
Electricity per capita 2010
Cumulative Population0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %
Cum
ulat
ive
Shar
e
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
Global Lorenz Distributions
Mobile phones per capita 2013
CO2 emissions per capita 2010
Source: Global Energy Assessment, IIASA
1.3 billion 0.6 billion
onechildonelight.orgitimes.com
Energy Poverty in South Asia
Useful Energy for Cooking per HH
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
R1 R2 R3 R4 U1 U2 U3 U4
GJ_
UE/
hh LPGKeroseneSolid Fuel
Data: NSSO, 2007Rural HH (by income) Urban HH (by income)
South Asia
Solid Fuel DependenceNo New Policies
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Solid
Fue
l Use
(% o
f Pop
ulat
ion)
No New PolicyClimate and Access
South Asia
Source: Cameron et al., 2016
Solid Fuel DependenceEffect of 2°C Climate Policy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Solid
Fue
l Use
(% o
f Pop
ulat
ion)
2° Climate PolicyNo New PolicyClimate and Access
0.5
mill
dea
ths
South Asia
Source: Cameron et al., 2016
Integrated Climate and Access Policies
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Solid
Fue
l Use
(% o
f Pop
ulat
ion)
2° Climate PolicyNo New PolicyClimate and Access
1.1
mill
save
d liv
es
South Asia
Source: Cameron et al., 2016
Air Quality and Health Co-Benefits of Climate Policy
Air Quality and Health Co-Benefits
Global PM2.5 concentrations ~30.4 µg/m3
Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure SPM.6/6.33
Air Quality and Health Co-Benefits
Sour
ce: R
ao, P
acha
uri e
t al.,
201
3
Clim
ate
Base
line
& Fr
ozen
Leg
isla
tion
Clim
ate
Base
line
& C
urre
nt L
egis
latio
n
Clim
ate
Polic
y &
Cur
rent
Leg
isla
tion
Clim
ate
Polic
y &
Strin
gent
Leg
isla
tion
&U
nive
rsal
Acc
ess
Clim
ate
Polic
y &
Strin
gent
Leg
isla
tion
Energy Security
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Co-Benefits of Climate Policy for Energy Security
Source: IPCC WGIII AR5, Figure 6.33
increasing energy independence
increasingclimate protection
Source: Jewell et al., 2016
€€€€€€€€€€
€
Energy independence
Climate Pledges
2°C€
Oil independence
Energy Independence vs. Climate Policy
Food Security, Climate Impacts and Mitigation
Source: Hasegawa et al. 2015
Food availability and hunger
Holistic Strategies (and more Research) needed
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Tota
l Glo
bal P
olic
y Cos
ts (2
010-
2030
)
CC PH
ES
CC PH
ES
CC PH
ES
CC PH
ES
All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level
At least one objective fulfilled at Intermediate level
At least one objective fulfilled at Weak level
Policy Prioritization Framework
CC – Climate ChangePH – Pollution & HealthES – Energy Security
Synergies of Multiple Energy Objectives
Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
D. McCollum, V. Krey, K. Riahi (2011)
Only ClimateOnly PollutionOnly Energy Security
All Three Objectives
Integrated Climate-Pollution-Security Policies
“Single minded” approachesfor multiple challenges
LiteratureClimate Change• Riahi et al. (2012) Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development. The Global Energy
Assessment: Toward a More Sustainable Future. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Water• Fricko, Parkinson et al. (2016) Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy.
Environmental Research Letters 11:034011.Energy poverty• Cameron, Pachauri et al. (2016) Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-
stove access in South Asia. Nature Energy 1:15010.Air quality and health• Rao, Pachauri et al. (2013) Better air for better health: Forging synergies in policies for energy
access, climate change and air pollution. Global Environmental Change 23:1122-1130.Energy Security• Jewell et al. (2016) Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy
independence and climate policies. Nature Energy 1:16073Food Security• Hasegawa et al. (2015) Consequence of Climate Mitigation on the Risk of Hunger. Environmental
Science and Technology 49:7245-7253.Multiple sustainable development objectives• McCollum et al. (2011) An integrated approach to energy sustainability. Nature Climate Change
1:428-429.
