�

Challenges for the Solar Industry

Johana Trujillo and James Hunt

�Outline

• The context

• The challenges

– Photovoltaics (PV)

– Solar Thermal Electric (STE)

• The potential impacts on GHG emissions

�Power = Development

�Power = Unsustainable

�Development = Unsustainable?

• Sustainable sources of power = Sustainable development

�Solar

�Photovoltaics (PV)

• Photons in sunlight hit the solar panel and are absorbed by semiconducting materials, such as silicon.

• Electrons (negatively charged) are knocked loose from their atoms, allowing them to flow through the material to produce electricity.

• The complementary positive charges that are also created are called holesand flow in the direction opposite of the electrons in a silicon solar panel.

• An array of solar cells converts solar energy into a usable amount of DC electricity.

�PV - Technologies

Amorphous silicon

Cadmium telluride (CdTe)

Module inverterCopper indium diselenide (CIS)

Dual axis tracking system

String inverterPolycrystallineSingle-axis tracking system

Central inverter for entire system

Mono-crystallineFixed

InvertersModulesStructure

�PV – Technical Challenges

Resource Availability

– Silicon:

• Pure Silicon

– High quality

– Used to be a problem

– New plants built (2004)

– Higher efficiency

• Metallurgical Silicon

– Silicon reclaiming

– Cheaper

– Less energy

– Efficiency compromised (?)

�PV – Technical Challenges

Resource Availability (continuation)

– Tellurium (CdTe)

– Indium

– Selenium (CuInSe2)

– Cadmium (environmental issues)

– Cooper

– Glass

Thin Film

�PV – Technical Challenges

�PV – Technical Challenges

Efficiency

– Monocrystalline-Silicon

• Efficiency: 10 - 18%

– Polycrystalline-Silicon

• Efficiency: 9 - 13%

– Amorphous-Silicon

• Efficiency: 6 - 8%

– CdTe

• Efficiency: 7 - 10%

– CIS

• Efficiency: 9 - 12%

Space requirement

�PV – Technical Challenges

�PV – Technical Challenges

Space Requirement

�PV – Technical Challenges

Dispachability

– The sun is an intermittent source of energy

Storage

– Batteries

– Fuel Cells

– “Grid”

�PV – Technical Challenges

Data Availability

Energy Yield Calculation

• Weather data

• Irradiation data

• Topographic data

Cleaning

– Water

– Vibration

�PV - commercial challenges - cost

• Cost, cost, cost, cost, cost,

• Today

– Euro 4.5 – 8 /Wp installed

– USD 5.5 – 10 /Wp installed

�PV - commercial challenges - cost

• LEC comparison

�PV - commercial challenges - cost

• High cost = Gov support

– Investment subsidies

– Feed-in-tariffs (Spain: Royal Decree 1578/2008)

– Green certificates (UK - ROCs)

�PV - commercial challenges - cost

• Future cost reductions

– Prices have fallen by 20% every

doubling of output - LR

– Technical challenges to keep prices

falling at historic rates

• When will we get grid parity ?

�PV - commercial challenges - costs

�PV - commercial challenges - other

• Revenue certainty – political uncertainty

– Japanese, Spanish examples

• Financing

– Large capital investments – credit crunch

– Low but constant paybacks

• Securing supply – less of an issue now

• Emerging technology problems – increase risks/costs

• Good people, experience, etc…. hampering

development

�What is possible - Germany

• Stable feed-in tariff

• 50% global demand

• Now >5GW installed (ish)

• Bavaria 2% total supply

• Small nuclear plant

�PV projects - buildings

• CIS Tower Manchester

– The UK's largest solar power project

to date,

– 400 KWp which will generate

200,000 kWh per year

– £5.5 million

�PV projects – utility big

• Nevada, USA

• 10 MW – PV First Solar thin film modules

• 500 MW CCGT

�PV projects – utility v big

• Spain - Parque Fotovoltaico Olmedilla de Alarcon

• 60 MW

• 85 GWh/yr

• Bigger to come –

– 3 GWs India ?

�Solar Thermal Electrical (STE)

Parabolic trough

Central receiver system - power tower

Parabolic dish engine

Linear Fresnel collector

�Solar Thermal Electrical (STE)

• Storage = dispatchable renewable power !

�Solar Thermal - Technology

Performance data of various CSP technologies

�Solar Thermal – Technical Challenges

• Cleaning

– Water

• Storage

– Sensible Heat Storage – Change of temperature occurs

– Latent Heat Storage – Change of phase occurs

– Thermochemical Storage – reversible chemical reaction occurs

• Land Requirement for collectors

• Location constrains

�Solar Thermal – Technical Challenges

• Data Availability

Energy Yield Calculation

• Weather data

• Irradiation data

• Topographic data

• More environmental impact Higher foot print

• New technologies Less bankable

• Qualified personnel

�STE - commercial challenges - cost

• Cost, cost

• As with PV gov support important

�STE - commercial challenges - cost

• Learning effect –costs expected to fall as capacity

increases

• But what about transmission costs?

�STE - commercial challenges - others

• Suitable locations far from demand centres –transmission

• Lead times?

• Expertise

• Contractually complicated – EPC wrap / O&M

• Getting project finance complicated - bankability

�STE Project examples

• 9 SEGS plants California

• Troughs

• 1984 - 1991

• 354MW

• 936,384 mirrors

• > 6.5 km2.

�STE Project examples

• Andasol 1 – Spain

• First troughs in Europe

• 2008

• 50MWe

• Thermal storage

• 510, 000 m2 collectors

• Andasol 2 & 3 to follow

�STE Project examples

• PS10 – Spain

• Solar power tower

• 2007

• 11MWe

• 624 heliostats

• 115 m tower

�STE Project examples

• Kimberlina

• Fresnel reflectors

• 2008

• 5MWe – demonstration

• 177MWe plant in development - California

�GHG emissions to 2020

• 125 – 250 megatones CO2 = 0.3 – 0.6 % global emissions in 2020

�GHG emissions – beyond 2020

• IPCC estimates CO2 emissions to reduce by >80% to carrying capacity

• Solar to play vital part in meeting that target

�

www.mottmac.comJames.Hunt@mottmac.com

Johana.Trujillo@mottmac.com

The future’s bright the future’s solar