Challenges & Opportunities

Trip DoggettPresident & CEOERCOT

NERC Monitoring & Situational Awareness Conference29 September 2015

ERCOT PUBLIC 2

The ERCOT Region

The interconnected electrical system serving most of Texas, with limited external connections• 90% of Texas electric load;

75% of Texas land • More than 43,000 miles of

transmission lines• 550+ generation units

ERCOT connections to other grids are limited to ~1100MW of direct current (DC) ties, which allow control over flow of electricity

220 MW with SPP

600 MW with SPP

30 MW with CFE at Eagle Pass

100 MW with CFEat Laredo

170 MW with CFE at Mc Allen(up to 300 MW Jan. 2016)

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ERCOT Inc.

ERCOT is regulated by the Texas Public Utility Commission with oversight by the Texas Legislature

ERCOT is not a market participant and does not own generation or transmission/distribution wires

The Texas Legislature restructured the Texas electric market in 1999 by unbundling the investor-owned utilities and creating retail customer choice in those areas, and assigned ERCOT four primary responsibilities:

• System Reliability - Ensure reliability and adequacy of regional electric network

• Open Access to Transmission - Ensure nondiscriminatory access to transmission/distribution systems for all buyers and sellers

• Competitive Retail Market - Facilitate retail registration and switching

• Competitive Wholesale Market - Ensure accurate accounting for electricity production and delivery among the generators and wholesale buyers and sellers in the region

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Current Records – Sept. 14, 2015

Peak Demand Record• 69,621 MW, August 10, 2015*

Weekend Record• 66,530 MW, Saturday, August 8, 2015*

Winter Peak Record• 57,265 MW, February 10, 2011

Wind Generation Records (instantaneous)• 11,467 MW, September 13, 2015, 10:56 p.m.

- Non-Coastal Wind Output = 11,127 MW- Coastal Wind Output = 340 MW- Supplying 29.91% of the load- Active Wind Capacity = 15,291 MW

• 40.58% Wind Penetration, March 29, 2015, 2:12 a.m.- Total Wind Output = 10,308 MW- Total Load = 25,400 MW

Summer 2015 monthly peaks

June: 61,732 MW (June 10)July: 67,650 MW (July 30 –

new July record)August: 69,621 MW* (Aug. 10 –

new all-time record)

*Following initial settlement

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Wind Generation – August 2015

• Texas is #1 in the U.S. in wind capacity.• Our capacity is more than twice the amount

of #2 (California)• If Texas were a separate country, we’d be

#6 in the world in wind generation capacity (as of end of 2014).

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Utility Scale Solar Generation – August 2015

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Late 1990s 2015

Installed Capacity by Unit Type

Changing Resource Mix

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Drivers for New Ancillary Service Framework

• Align the AS framework with the changing technical needs of the ERCOT System

• Remove barriers to entry for new resource types that could meet the fundamental requirements for AS

• Improve the efficiency in AS procurement

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Potential Impacts of Environmental Regulations

In December 2014, ERCOT reviewed potential impacts of new and pending environmental regulations on grid reliability.• Included CSAPR, MATS, Regional Haze, Clean Water Act Section 316(b), Ash Disposal

Regulations & Clean Power Plan (as proposed)

Studies indicated:• Half of coal-fired generation capacity (about 9,000 MW) is likely to retire by 2022.• Retirement of units serving urban areas may result in localized reliability issues.• Growth in renewable resources may require development of new or additional

generation and transmission facilities and technologies to manage operational issues (e.g., ramping, inertia, etc.).

• Costs of compliance could drive up consumer energy costs as much as 20%.o Does not include costs of transmission upgrades or other investments to support

grid reliability

ERCOT and other grid operators supported incorporation of “safety valve” provisions to allow sufficient flexibility to maintain system reliability. An updated study of the final CPP Rule is expected on Oct 15, 2015.

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On-peak DR Potential by Customer Type

• Based on customer class breakdown in competitive choice areas and extrapolated to ERCOT

• Large C&I are IDR Meter Required (>700kW)

8/3/2011 IE 17:00

3/9/2011 IE 17:15

Large C&I23.7%

Residential51.2%

(~35,000 MW)

Residential 27.4% (~8,500 MW) Small Commercial

25.2%

Small Commercial 28.9%

Large C&I 43.7%

Wed., Aug. 3, 20115:00 PMERCOT Load: 68,416 MWTemperature in Dallas: 109°

WednesdayMarch 9, 20115:15 PMERCOT Load: 31,262 MWTemperature in Dallas: 64°

• ERCOT staff is working on Aggregated Load Response (ALR) enablement with market participants in both NOIE and competitive choice areas

Approx. 37,000 MW of weather sensitive load (54% of peak)

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Distributed Energy Resource Modeling

Aux Load for

Storage

Meter 2

STRG

Electrical Bus -A

ERCOT Transmission Network Model

Meter 1

Native Load

Service Delivery Point

Distribution Network

ERCOT CIM Load AElectrical Bus -B

ERCOT CIM Load B

DER Light

• ERCOT has developed a concept paper to help integrate DERs into the wholesale market

• Main concept is to allow DERs to be settled at local (Nodal) prices instead of zonally-averaged prices

• Would provide proper incentives for DER locating and could contribute to local congestion management Hypothetical DER configuration: Generator and storage

device combination metered separately from native and auxiliary load; DER mapped to one or more Load Points in the transmission network model

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Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs)

Total: 93 PMUs

Currently used for Post-Event Analysis• Frequency Analysis – primary frequency variation over time• System Oscillations – variations in primary frequency

caused by system events (e.g. sudden loss of generation) • Generator model validation/tuning

Future Considerations• Develop a highly available Phasor

measurements-based monitoring system in ERCOT Control Centers

• Train system operators on how to use phasor systems alongside traditional SCADA in making decisions and taking actions to ensure reliability

• Incorporate phasor measurements in Blackstart training and procedure

• Include phasor measurements in the EMS State Estimator measurement set

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And then some more …Opportunities

• Load Forecast Challenges– Distributed energy resources– Energy efficiency in long-term forecasts– Price responsive demand– Increased weather volatility

• Transmission Planning– Limited notification requirements of unit retirements– Renewable generation distant from major load centers– Transmission system flexibility required by increase in renewable generation– Distributed generation resources– Decentralization of resources– Switchable resources

• Batteries & Storage• Surgical/Smart Load Shed• DC Ties• Electric Vehicles

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Improving communications with consumersERCOT website – added features • Today’s Outlook: Real-Time

demand and capacity • Weather page: Daily, seasonal

Social media – join us!• Twitter: 6,700+ followers• Facebook: 1,500+ followers• LinkedIn: 4,000 followers

ERCOT Energy Saver mobile app – upgraded• System conditions – Real-Time demand and capacity• Wholesale pricing information – Hubs and Load Zones• Information-sharing options