Championing Young People’s Learning

14-19 and London: an evidence base

Gareth Ashcroft

Championing Young People’s Learning

The London storyJointly produced by YPLA and RPG

Format specific to London; includes economy and employer skills needs and ‘learner voice’

Regional level analysis with links to Local Authority figures

Statistical basis for planning and commissioning education and training for young Londoners

Informed guide on the education, training and employment landscape for young people in London

Starting point for further enquiry

Championing Young People’s Learning

How has it been used?

Robust evidence base to support the London SoP & wider young people’s strategy.

Gained strong currency amongst officers working on 14-19 in LAs; downloaded by 31 LAs on Provider Gateway

Format, structure and content of the document have been received well.

Local authorities have arrived at some common conclusions about priorities for London as a result of their interpretation of the data within the Strategic Analysis.

Released online in September following high interest (e.g. GLA and Observatory Steering Group)

Championing Young People’s Learning

Which issue created the most interest?

Championing Young People’s Learning

Further investigation into 17 yr old participation required…

Genuine progression into other education or training

(e.g. Apprenticeship)?

Progression into employment?

Dropout?

86% of 17 yr olds in learning

V94% of 16 yr olds in learning

Becoming NEET?

(4,230 YP NEET from FT Education Aug – Dec 2009)

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Championing Young People’s Learning

Who is in education, employment in training?

• 86% of 17 yr. olds in learning compared to 94% 16 yr. olds• Figures suggest approximately 5,000 leave education or training after one year

16 and 17 year old participation in London since 2002

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Age 16 86 86 88 90 93 94

Age 17 76 79 80 82 85 86 In education & training

%pt difference -10 -7 -8 -8 -8 -8

Age 16 34 35 36 37 39 40

Age 17 25 26 27 29 29 31 Maintained Schools

%pt difference -9 -9 -9 -8 -10 -9

Age 16 1 1 1 1 2 2

Age 17 1 1 1 1 1 1 Academies & CTCs

%pt difference 0 0 0 0 -1 -1

Age 16 8 7 7 8 8 8

Age 17 7 7 7 7 8 8 Independent Schools

%pt difference -1 0 0 -1 0 0

Age 16 10 10 10 10 10 10

Age 17 7 8 8 8 9 9 Sixth Form College

%pt difference -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1

Age 16 26 26 26 28 29 29

Age 17 26 27 27 28 30 30 Other FE

%pt difference 0 +1 +1 0 +1 +1

Age 16 3 3 3 3 3 3

Age 17 5 5 5 4 4 4 WBL

%pt difference +2 +2 +2 +1 +1 +1 Source: DCSF SFR 12/2009; Local authority Core Dataset Table 2

Significant fall in participation at 17

• especially for maintained schools from 16 to 17

• 9% gap in London: above national av. since 2002

• fall varies across London, from 13% to 2%.

Championing Young People’s Learning

School Sixth Form in year retention

• 96% of Year 12 learners in 2008/09 completed the year . Fall from 98% in 06/07. Suggests 4% of learners may have left early.

• Fall in ‘retention’ in 18 boroughs in 2008/09. Fewer boroughs below regional average in 08/09 compared to 19 in 06/07.

• Significant variation by borough; 74% to 110%.

• Figure less than 100% may mean pupils left the school during the course of the academic year, or data quality issues.

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 % pt change on 2006/07Promotion:

Hackney 95% 98% 110% 15%Barnet 97% 97% 105% 8%

Tower Hamlets 90% 83% 104% 14%Relegation:

Islington 93% 93% 91% -2%Lewisham 93% 90% 90% -3%Greenwich 83% 78% 74% -9%

Championing Young People’s Learning

School Sixth Form Year 12 / Year 13 retention

• Figures suggest that 10,000 learners (approx 26% of learners) who complete Year 12 are not in Year 13 Summer Census in the following academic year.

• Significant variation by borough; drop of 58% to an increase of 11%.

• Why? Further exploration needed…progression to other learning, completed studies, dropped out of post 16 education, data quality.

% change Year 12 Summer Census to Year 13 Summer Census Year 12 06/07 to 07/08 Year 13 Year 12 07/08 to 08/09 Year 13 % pt change from 07/08

Promotion:Hammersmith and Fulham 22% 11% -11%Havering -12% -9% 3%Croydon 8% -14% -22%Sutton -18% -16% 2%Relegation:Brent -42% -40% 2%Hackney -35% -43% -8%Newham 25% -43% -68%Islington -54% -58% -4%

Championing Young People’s Learning

NEET continues to fall but high levels remain amongst certain groups of Young People

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10121416

16-18NEET

16 year old 17 year old 18 year old LLDD

London

England

•10,500 young people NEET in December 2009; 5.3% of the cohort•Significant variation within London; 14 boroughs with NEET above regional average

•NEET increases with age•NEET is often higher in boroughs with higher levels of deprivation

•Connexion figures suggest a large proportion of teenage mothers are NEET•YP with a learning difficulty and/or disability and who are NEET is increasing

•White and Black Caribbean residents have the highest NEET of any ethnic grouping

Championing Young People’s Learning

Who are the ‘NEET joiners’?

• Av. number of 16-18 year olds NEET = 10,225; 4,230 join from FTE. Rises to 6,000 including WBL, ESF and other Government Supported Training.

• Total number of NEET joiners = 19,626; 30% from FTE and GST and 53% ‘currency re-established’.

Boroughs with highest NEET from FTE

December 2009 N o . jo in ing N E ET

f rom FT E as % o f N EE T

g ro u p

LONDON 4,230 41%

Newham 261 52%

Hillingdon 255 59%

Barking & Dagenham 230 45%

Tower Hamlets 220 61%

Croydon 219 38%

Havering 210 54%

Championing Young People’s Learning

How many NEET joiners have dropped out?

• Based on Audit Commission analysis, circa 3,000 NEET joiners may have dropped out of learning

Championing Young People’s Learning

Is there a link between SSF and NEET?Figures suggest a link between higher levels of NEET and higher % difference between Year 12 / 13 figures

Less evidence of a link between Year 12 ‘in year retention’ and NEET. No of boroughs performing ‘worse’ than the regional average

Research suggests London learners have a mean time of 12.1 months before leaving their course; and A/AS/A2 learners are more likely to drop out

Not fully conclusive. Further investigation needed.

Year 12 Year 12/13 NEET FTE joiners as % total NEET NEET joiners from FTEYear 12 11 6 4 4

Year 12/13 6 15 9 7NEET joiners as % total NEET 4 9 13 12

NEET joiners from FTE 4 7 10 11

Championing Young People’s Learning

Emerging issues….

• Tackling the 6,000 learners from FTE who become NEET is a key priority. Where exactly do NEET joiners come from?

• Value for money – ‘recycled’ learners cost more. Significant impact on public purse and wider social and economic factors.

• Importance of local knowledge - one size does not fit all. Understanding curriculum, IAG, identifying progression and dropout are key.

• Poor data quality may be distorting picture at institution / borough level.

Championing Young People’s Learning

What happened next?

• Increasing access to YPLA data: Project Marconi and Hotdesk facility

• Identifying further lines of enquiry

• Meeting customer need

• Provider level core dataset

• Developing the approach for 2010-2011

Championing Young People’s Learning

What do our customers want?

User friendly format and evidence based approach

Greater accessibility to YPLA data and intelligence, supplemented by narrative reports identifying key 14-19 evidence

Explore ways of better ‘visualising’ the data

Consider needs of wide ranging 14-19 audience when developing, writing and disseminating the end product

Key areas that require further development are: population projections; success rates, Apprenticeships; Learner Support; Progression Pathways; and Skills supply and the demands of the London economy.

Championing Young People’s Learning

The way forward?

• National approach with regional flexibility

• Three narrative regional reports based on a set of key strategic questions:

Closing the Gap in Participation - July

Closing the Gap in Achievement and Progression - May

Who’s doing what and where? - March

• Improving accessibility to data and MI (e.g. LLDD and FE App through Qlikview; Project Marconi evaluation)

• Strategy for updating pivots, flat packs, cubes TBC